BajaNomad - here comes Hillary....

here comes Hillary....

woody with a view - 9-18-2011 at 07:01 PM

it looks like she will be a major storm spinning off cabo in the about 4 days. hopefully, she'll push up enough warm water that the tuna will arrive. 32 days and a wakeup. that's 32 days to make and remake my plans, so many contingencies.... surf or fish or both?

here she comes:

images.jpg - 10kB

Russ - 9-19-2011 at 07:37 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Russ - 9-19-2011 at 02:50 PM

forecast 40% chance of developing now

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

woody with a view - 9-19-2011 at 03:53 PM

she's gonna be a biggie, by far the strongest yet.

woody with a view - 9-19-2011 at 07:38 PM

wow! model now shows a brush with cabo to the west. still a week out, and not very accurate that far out, but keep your eyes peeled to the south.....

Russ - 9-20-2011 at 06:01 AM

I'm not sure how big she's gonna be but she's gathering her forces. Now we wait to and what actual she's gonna do.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO
MEXICO. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

New tropical activity

landyacht318 - 9-20-2011 at 12:19 PM

Just a heads up.

Invest 96. All computer models have this becoming a hurricane by day 5 and located south of CSL

JESSE - 9-20-2011 at 12:32 PM

Its about time, theres been very little activiy in the pacific this year, and we need rain.

Katiejay99 - 9-20-2011 at 12:40 PM

We sure do Jesse. Hopefully we'll get lots of rain and little on the heavy wind side.

DENNIS - 9-20-2011 at 12:41 PM

Is this thing moving slowly? It's still a thousand miles below Cabo.

Russ - 9-20-2011 at 02:08 PM

It's still very early to say much in my opinion. We've seen these predictions before and sometimes they peter out, sometimes, NOT. But keep an eye on it and do a little prep just in case. Maybe by weeks end we'll have a clear idea what she's about.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

woody with a view - 9-20-2011 at 04:27 PM

latest model run shows it getting to 115w and 18n then turning "right" towards cabo. major storm coming. like i said a week out is too far for these models to grasp, but be warned, she's coming and she's gonna be a blowhard....

all eyes to the south!

MMc - 9-20-2011 at 05:38 PM

Woody,
When do you go south?
Big south, pushing tuna, warm water with a swell.
Longboards at razors would be fun to watch. :yes:

Yellowtail and butts from the beach :bounce:

Baja beach time :tumble:

Hope springs eternal!!!
I know your stoke.
MMc

woody with a view - 9-20-2011 at 06:26 PM

not this storm. 29 days and a 3am wakeup!

Russ - 9-20-2011 at 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by woody with a view
not this storm. 29 days and a 3am wakeup!

Roads should be all cleaned by then :rolleyes:

THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

woody with a view - 9-21-2011 at 05:36 AM

BFS is gonna be happy.....

BigWooo - 9-21-2011 at 06:50 AM

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/4. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE TO INCREASE.

If that scenario plays out, the ridge will most likely keep the hurricane well away from Baja, and a faster, more westerly track will decrease the probablility of good waves for the west coast. Darn.

no tanto

BFS - 9-21-2011 at 07:28 AM

Hillary is looking ideal at this stage. Especially that 8mph forward motion, thats good, and I normally would be running to get ready, but the last storm took care of my "running" for awhile...so not so happy.

[Edited on 9-21-2011 by BFS]

[Edited on 9-21-2011 by BFS]

foot.JPG - 46kB

DianaT - 9-21-2011 at 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by BFS
Hillary is looking ideal at this stage. Especially that 8mph forward motion, thats good, and I normally would be running to get ready, but the last storm took care of my "running" for awhile...so not so happy.

OUCH

Hope you are healing well.

Bill Collector - 9-21-2011 at 09:21 AM

Still to far away to think about...We don't start boarding till it's 200 miles from Cabo.

oladulce - 9-21-2011 at 09:31 AM

BFS is that Mexican hardware and if so, did you receive pain medication during the ordeal? Don't worry, even if this thing produces waves no one here will rub it in. Happy healing.

BFS - 9-21-2011 at 09:42 AM

Hey Ola,
love the name by the way. Yeah all locally done. I took pain meds for 4 days after and that was it. Its healing nicely.
Enjoy the swell looks like a beauty...

dtbushpilot - 9-21-2011 at 10:12 AM

BFS, you and motoged could be twins but his was on the other leg. Hope it gets better soon.....dt

DavidE - 9-21-2011 at 10:24 AM

Pins and plates I feel your pain!

Bill Collector - 9-21-2011 at 12:12 PM

Yesterday water temp 89.. Hillary will like that

woody with a view - 9-21-2011 at 07:50 PM

latest model run downgrades intensity, but still want to hook right at cabo. dust off the paraguas.....

comitan - 9-22-2011 at 06:40 AM

TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
200 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2011

RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...MICROWAVE PASSES...AND
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE
OF HILARY CONTINUES TO QUICKLY IMPROVE WITH AN EYE FEATURE NOTED.
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
T3.5...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT. HILARY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOVE OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST
WATER IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND A PERIOD OF
RAPID STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE CORE REMAINS OFFSHORE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE AND
PREDICTS HILARY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8 KT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF HILARY IS FORECAST TO BUILD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS
A TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH SHOW HILARY CLOSER TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...TURN HILARY NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH INTO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
UKMET...GFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF...WHICH ALL SHOW A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK INITIALLY...KEEP HILARY ON A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AT LEAST THROUGH 120 HOURS. GIVEN THE NORTHWARD BIAS OF
THE GFDL/HWRF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS SEASON...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION KEEPING HILARY MOVING
MORE WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPDATED TRACK IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 SINCE HILARY SHOULD DECELERATE
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.

Bill Collector - 9-22-2011 at 08:04 AM

Hurricane Hilary- she's coming

Pompano - 9-22-2011 at 08:39 AM

Good grief! I've been passed out on the floor for half-an-hour.

I read the headline ..."here comes Hilary"...and was thinking Election Year.

Gawddamn...please don't do that again..

bajajazz - 9-22-2011 at 09:10 AM

Pompano . . . that's funny.

I knew a guy who woke up in a hotel room in Paris thinking he was in NYC. He went down to the lobby and was met by an American woman who said, "Harry! Are you going to sing for us tonight? Coming over, you sang for us every night on the Ile de France."

That was the first Harry knew he'd spent five days and nights on an ocean liner crossing the Atlantic.

I also met a nurse who woke up in a hotel room, alone, looked at some papers on the bureau and discovered she'd joined the navy the day before.

I think it's best to have an eye-opener first, then check out the news of the day.

Katiejay99 - 9-22-2011 at 01:49 PM

The computer models are split on this one, but she's a good one to keep an eye on.

Cypress - 9-22-2011 at 02:15 PM

Based on predictions, it's a 50-50 chance that she'll head for Baja. Flip a coin. Named Hillary? She'll probably just head towards the left and spread out a tad. :biggrin:

Udo - 9-22-2011 at 04:59 PM

The models in the Los Angeles area show hillary hugging the Baja coast all the way to about El Rosario, then headed for the Southwest deserts, where it will deposit massive amounts of water by NEXT weekend.

maspacifico - 9-22-2011 at 05:13 PM

Or, it just bumped into mainland Mexico and fell apart! Hope we get some rain out of what's left.

Katiejay99 - 9-23-2011 at 06:11 AM

Ut oh- 2 of the lines go directly over Todos Santos. Heads up -

DENNIS - 9-23-2011 at 06:25 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Cypress
Named Hillary? She'll probably just head towards the left and spread out a tad. :biggrin:

Veddy veddy funny. :lol:

Russ - 9-23-2011 at 06:47 AM

Nice Eye !

SAT ~ Hilary~1.jpg - 45kB

Russ - 9-23-2011 at 06:54 AM

Talk about confused :?:

Yesterday I had counted her out... But "She's Back" in the picture ...I guess :?:

Pescador - 9-23-2011 at 07:26 AM

Russ, you are officially in charge of keeping Hillary off of the coast. I suggest you take up nude sunbathing on your front porch for the next week as that should do it.

Russ - 9-23-2011 at 07:59 AM

BUT ...... (butt) Jim YOU could be so much more effective cuz youz U~ gly and I'm pretty :lol:

woody with a view - 9-23-2011 at 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Katiejay99
Ut oh- 2 of the lines go directly over Todos Santos. Heads up -

yeah, she'll get to 115w and 20n before turning and blasting todos area. make your plans now......

Katiejay99 - 9-23-2011 at 12:23 PM

Looks more like Bart Simpson than Hillary....

comitan - 9-23-2011 at 12:40 PM

Are we going to get a double whammy.

Cypress - 9-23-2011 at 12:50 PM

Hillary will fizzle out. No big deal. Just like the liberal women she's named after. :biggrin:

comitan - 9-23-2011 at 01:10 PM

Cypress

Sir this is a real hurricane and to be sure will not fizzle out, everything is right for this to be striking the Baja Peninsula with force.

Cypress - 9-23-2011 at 01:26 PM

comitan, Yep, Hillary is a full blown hurricane.

DENNIS - 9-23-2011 at 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Cypress
comitan, Yep, Hillary is a full blown hurricane.

I guess so...winds at 145-MPH. That's breezy.

krafty - 9-23-2011 at 01:57 PM

Breezy? :wow:

DENNIS - 9-23-2011 at 02:01 PM

Yep...breezy. :yes:

Cypress - 9-23-2011 at 02:02 PM

Don't get your panties in a wad. The odds are Hillary will move on out to sea and head for Hawaii, if not, Baja will get some rain. Is rain in Baja a bad thing? :tumble:

vandenberg - 9-23-2011 at 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Cypress
Don't get your panties in a wad. The odds are Hillary will move on out to sea and head for Hawaii, if not, Baja will get some rain. Is rain in Baja a bad thing? :tumble:

No, but chasing your roof/belongings down the street is.

Cypress - 9-23-2011 at 02:09 PM

Yea, you might ought to tie some of that stuff down. :biggrin:

woody with a view - 9-23-2011 at 02:56 PM

someone go down to the beach and post pics.....

Russ - 9-23-2011 at 03:01 PM

~~ Update ~~
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011

HILARY HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY STEADY STATE IN INTENSITY AND
STRUCTURE TODAY AS A SMALL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THE TAFB AND
SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES AS WELL AS THE ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE FROM CIMMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS OF 125 KT
...WHICH IS THE INTENSITY ANALYZED THIS AFTERNOON. THE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE ALSO REMAINS QUITE SMALL AS INDICATED BY THE LIMITED COLD
CLOUD ENVELOPE AND A 1621Z CIRA AMSU WIND RADII ESTIMATE.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KT...SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY. HILARY IS PRIMARILY BEING
STEERED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A ZONALLY-ORIENTED DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS OR SO. AT THE EXTENDED RANGE...HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO
EXISTS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE GFDL..HWRF...AND
EXPERIMENTAL GFD5 REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS RECURVE HILARY TOWARD
MEXICO BY IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS DUE TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IMPINGING UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
REMAINING RELIABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS HILARY ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY THROUGH FIVE DAYS...AS THEY DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ON HILARY. IT NOW APPEARS FORTUITOUS THAT
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID NOT INDICATE A TRACK CLOSER TO
MEXICO...AS THE 12Z GLOBAL AND GFDN MODEL SUITE HAVE SWUNG BACK
TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN
THESE MODEL RUNS TO THE WEST AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE EAST.

WHILE HILARY HAS APPARENTLY NOT INTENSIFIED FURTHER TODAY...THE
CYCLONE DOES HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AS IT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATERS...IN MOIST AIR...AND WITHIN LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IT IS QUITE LIKELY
THAT HILARY WILL CONTINUE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME.
INTENSITY VARIATIONS THAT OCCUR MAY BE DOMINATED BY INTERNAL
DYNAMICS...SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...WHICH WE HAVE VERY
LIMITED ABILITY TO ANTICIPATE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS...LESS UNSTABLE AIR...AND
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKENING
TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE LGEM AND SHIPS
STATISTICAL MODELS AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

cabobaja - 9-23-2011 at 06:39 PM

So...................., what you are saying is my house in Elias Calles might get
blown away. I hope not. A little rain would be good.

Russ - 9-23-2011 at 07:25 PM

I'm saying keep an eye on http://eebmike.com/ and you can guess as well as any of us.

9:23:11 hur. path.jpg - 47kB

woody with a view - 9-23-2011 at 07:36 PM

looks like "Mike's" software is the same as my guy's.... 115w 20n when it swings... pretty damn close.

make plans people. she's coming.....

stanburn - 9-24-2011 at 06:05 AM

A dinky hurricane that passed about150 miles south of Manzanillo. We received about .6 inches of rain and no wind. No worry for Baja. If it recurves it will be over colder water and will die pretty quickly.

vandenberg - 9-24-2011 at 07:44 AM

If you look at stormpulse site, it's funny how little cloudcover is associated with this storm. :?:

Osprey - 9-24-2011 at 08:23 AM

"When the Gods wish to punish us, they answer our prayers"

Oscar Wilde

oladulce - 9-24-2011 at 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by stanburn
A dinky hurricane that passed about150 miles south of Manzanillo. We received about .6 inches of rain and no wind. No worry for Baja. If it recurves it will be over colder water and will die pretty quickly.

Thanks for the on-scene report Stanburn. I'm always curious how the mainland is being impacted.

One forecast resource says this storm's proximity to the mainland coast kept it compact but as it moves farther offshore it will have the opportunity to expand with a larger wind field.

One of the long range computer models has Hilary making a beeline over the top of our casa, which is surprising because our water is only 76-78° and I'd have thought it would break up before it got anywhere near here.

Our masons suggested to BigWooo 4 days ago, based on what Mexican news/radio was reporting for Baja Sur, he should expedite the next load of sand, gravel and cement deliveries "in case the roads wash out and trucks can't get in here for a while". I don't know exactly what Mexican news was reporting but this was a few days before the NWS hurricane center showed a track heading for Baja. The albañiles aren't alarmists and maybe they were just being extra cautious so we wouldn't run out of materials. It'll be "interesting" to see how accurate the Mexican agency was with such a long range forecast.

Cypress - 9-24-2011 at 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Osprey
"When the Gods wish to punish us, they answer our prayers"

Oscar Wilde

Interesting! Thanks.

Katiejay99 - 9-24-2011 at 08:40 AM

Well, watching EEB Mike, Hillary has taken a nose dive south and a little west. She's wavering.

shari - 9-24-2011 at 09:14 AM

that is good planning on your albaniles part and they are right about the possibility of roads being washed out...they are often concerned with running out of supplies and thus work! But I'm not sure I would want a big load of sand in my yard if big rains come...might lose alot of it.

here is an interesting model to consider too which certainly shows Hillary blowing into our barrio.
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height

woody with a view - 9-24-2011 at 08:20 PM

the latest model shows the storm running offshore, up the entire costa sur.

get out the rhino chasers..... :light:

Russ - 9-25-2011 at 05:18 AM

It's appearing like we'll get showers. Especially the West coast. But that's next Thursdays forecast and anyone's guess at this point.
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48
HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NHC FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED EASTWARD

203741W5.jpg - 47kB

shari - 9-25-2011 at 07:52 AM

looks like you guys at the tip are off the hook!!! whew eh.

DENNIS - 9-25-2011 at 07:58 AM

Something is very strange. I look at Stormpulse and there are clouds here and there, but none associated with Hillary.
Is this one of those rare cloudless hurricanes?

MikeYounghusband - 9-25-2011 at 08:05 AM

Great, I'm leaving with all of personal possessions in two trucks and a trailer on Wed. AM for Loreto. Should I wait for this to pass or do you think I will be alright. FIGURES!!

DENNIS - 9-25-2011 at 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by MikeYounghusband
Great, I'm leaving with all of personal possessions in two trucks and a trailer on Wed. AM for Loreto. Should I wait for this to pass or do you think I will be alright. FIGURES!!

I wouldn't attempt a decision til Wednesday morning.

Cypress - 9-25-2011 at 10:03 AM

MikeYounghusband, If you're not in a arroyo or living in a real flimsy structure, ride it out.

Russ - 9-25-2011 at 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS
Something is very strange. I look at Stormpulse and there are clouds here and there, but none associated with Hillary.
Is this one of those rare cloudless hurricanes?

Scroll down it's there.... Honest
I'm hoping we get some rain outta this but after she makes the turn to the right who knows?

SAT 9:24:11 Hilary.jpg - 47kB

woody with a view - 9-25-2011 at 06:04 PM

she's purdy! :light:

vandenberg - 9-26-2011 at 06:39 AM

from Jeff Masters"

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary slowly weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has slowly weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. A trough of low pressure is expected to turn Hilary to sharply to the north on Wednesday, but most of the models do not bring Hilary ashore over Mexico's Baja Peninsula during the next five days. Since Hilary will be crossing cool water and encountering increased wind shear on its journey north, the storm is likely to be no stronger than a tropical depression if it does manage to reach the coast.

RnR - 9-26-2011 at 07:25 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS
Something is very strange. I look at Stormpulse and there are clouds here and there, but none associated with Hillary.
Is this one of those rare cloudless hurricanes?

The cloud overlay on Stormpulse hasn't updated in four or five days. Noticed this, too. Go to the National Hurricane Center and click in the open ocean area for current cloud cover.

DENNIS - 9-26-2011 at 07:41 AM

Thanks. I looked again this AM and still no clouds. I'll go to NHC.

Russ - 9-26-2011 at 09:59 AM

I agree, Looks as though we may not even get a shower.
Stormpulse ... I played with a bit and got the clouds for a short time in motion but when I went to take a pic it went away :?:

durrelllrobert - 9-26-2011 at 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by woody with a view

here she comes:

Here's what you looked like when her and Billy were dating:

and here are smome more recent pics:

Surf on Friday Morning . .

rob - 9-26-2011 at 11:58 AM

Rancho la Aguja sits between Punta Marquez and Punta Conejo - both well-known surf spots, and we keep an eye on the surf because it is part of daily life here - swimming and fishing (I am officially past surfing).

http://www.surf-forecast.com is usually pretty reliable (except for the temps - they show La Paz) and I have never seen a higher wave energy forecast than shown for Friday - 9267!

A calm day here (2-3ft Pacific breakers) would read less than 100 . . . .

[Edited on 9-26-2011 by rob]

ScreenHunter_2.jpg - 44kB

woody with a view - 9-26-2011 at 12:19 PM

yeah, but those south winds STILL SUCK! at least it should be pumping this weekend....

[Edited on 9-26-2011 by woody with a view]

Rain coming too?

ElCap - 9-26-2011 at 05:45 PM

Not only will the surf be high, but likely to be some (or alot?) of rain coming to central Baja as well:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

DianaT - 9-27-2011 at 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by ElCap
Not only will the surf be high, but likely to be some (or alot?) of rain coming to central Baja as well:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

Some rain good, but I sure hope it is not A LOT of rain. If you are in San Ignacio, and it looks like a lot of rain, I hope you and everyone else stocks up on basic supplies!

Gone?

Russ - 9-28-2011 at 06:25 AM

Not much interest now but for those that worry about such things I thought I do an update

track~Hilary 9:28:11.jpg - 48kB

shari - 9-28-2011 at 06:55 AM

whew...looks like we got through september with ne'er a storm! I do hope Ms.Hillary pushes the warmer water back up our way though...sea temps are down around 70 and this morning I awoke to 65 degrees outside...brrrrr.

BajaDanD - 9-28-2011 at 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by shari
whew...looks like we got through september with ne'er a storm! I do hope Ms.Hillary pushes the warmer water back up our way though...sea temps are down around 70 and this morning I awoke to 65 degrees outside...brrrrr.

You better do something quick. You got a month and a week to warm it back up. 65 in the morning is way too cold.

Russ - 9-29-2011 at 06:39 AM

Weird! I look at the projected path of what's left of Hilary and it shows it moving off to the west. However the Sat loops shows it moving towards Baja :?:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-rb.html

bajabass - 9-29-2011 at 06:50 AM

Thin high clouds, no real wind here in La Paz. How are things on the other side???

woody with a view - 9-29-2011 at 03:45 PM

Russ

i think it is moving west. those are the clouds being blown to the northeast, but the circulation is still slightly moving west.

DENNIS - 9-29-2011 at 03:52 PM

Hillary is going to Hawaii.

Curt63 - 9-29-2011 at 04:23 PM

Great surf in N SD county

krafty - 9-29-2011 at 07:15 PM

Warm, calm and a tad muggy in Rosarito-had awesome bioluminescence this week. Never saw anything like it!

Bioluminence in Rosarito

EnsenadaDr - 9-29-2011 at 08:19 PM

Quote:

Yes I remember fondly the acid rain from the Pemex factory on my car and the phenomenal sunsets from the plumes of smoke, reminds me of the spectacular sunsets in Kona Hawaii from the Vog...(volcano smoke)

]Originally posted by krafty
Warm, calm and a tad muggy in Rosarito-had awesome bioluminescence this week. Never saw anything like it!

Hillary's last night in our barrio

shari - 9-30-2011 at 07:00 AM

this is the most we ever saw of Hillary...a gorgeous sunset behind Juan's panga! Partly cloudy this morning and muggy and a lovely sunrise too.

DSC00360-1.JPG - 48kB