BajaNomad - Hurricane coming next week?

Hurricane coming next week?

dtbushpilot - 10-2-2011 at 06:22 PM

Interesting forcast for the Cabo area around the 10th...

http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?region=19&r...

Russ - 10-2-2011 at 06:46 PM

I've never seen anything like that before. Way Cool! Hope the forecast is really wrong cuz I need to go north in a week. May have to leave early. :no:

dtbushpilot - 10-2-2011 at 07:39 PM

I'm headed back to Buena Vista around then, guess I'd better take the gas powered blender. :bounce:

.......dt

Bajatripper - 10-2-2011 at 10:12 PM

I hope it proves to be right, we can use the rain (as I'm always saying these days). It has been hot and muggy these last few days. Although there's been a pleasant breeze in the early afternoon, not so at night, dead still.

woody with a view - 10-3-2011 at 05:02 PM

yeah D, looks like the same track Hilary was suppossed to take, curving towards Cabo in a week. who knows? the models only really get a grip about 90 hours out. from that point until zero hour is 90%.

fingers crossed.

Eli - 10-3-2011 at 05:10 PM

I fly into Los Cabos on the 8th. It will be interesting to see who is in town when I arrive. I would love to see rain without wind, if that is possible.

Bajatripper - 10-3-2011 at 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Eli
I fly into Los Cabos on the 8th. It will be interesting to see who is in town when I arrive. I would love to see rain without wind, if that is possible.

I read somewhere that La Paz is in the driest part of the Cape Region, and driving through it this year really puts that in perspective. While much of the Cape Region is covered in green, our hills continue to have that post-nuclear holocaust look.

In short, I'd take my rain with sh*t about now.

Welcome home, Eli. It'll be good to have you back.

[Edited on 10-4-2011 by Bajatripper]

Hurricane chart

rob - 10-4-2011 at 08:05 AM

Here is the forecast - code named "Igor" (unofficially) - either Magic Seaweed will turn out to be prognosticadores extraordinarias or smokers of own product as none of the other weather sites have picked up on this (yet).

Talking of strange forecasts - my favorite surf forecast website posted a very strange wave energy reading for Hilary at Punta Marquez last week - I worked out that would have produced a beach break of about 194ft high . . .. sorry Woody!

igor.jpg - 38kB

Ateo - 10-4-2011 at 08:10 AM

From Surfline:TROPICS: A disturbance off southern Mexico doesn't look like it's going to develop a whole bunch, but we'll continue to monitor it. Nothing else is brewing now, although long range charts indicate that we may see something develop in a few days. For all tropical storm activity be sure to check out Hurricanetrak.

Bob H - 10-4-2011 at 09:18 AM

Predicting where a hurricane will develop and travel to this early is as good as predicting an earthquake tomorrow anywhere.

woody with a view - 10-4-2011 at 05:44 PM

another site i follow shows igor blowing up in 100 hours (with a mini storm to the southwest of it) and running into cabo. kinda goofy that a second storm forms so close, but hey, it's mexico!

Osprey - 10-4-2011 at 05:51 PM

Water temps in the SOC are 90 to 94º from way south of Cabo north to Santa Rosalita, shore to shore. That's what we normally refer to as a Welcome Mat but Eastern Pacific Highs off the west coast of Baja have kept all the hopefuls so far south, east or powerless.

bajajudy - 10-4-2011 at 06:57 PM

The water here is nowhere near 90....I would guess much closer to 80.

Bill Collector - 10-4-2011 at 07:13 PM

Water temp today 89.5 in front of Punta Colorado..

woody with a view - 10-4-2011 at 07:24 PM

Judy

i check out this site regularly:

http://www.terrafin.com/sstview/showFreeChart.php?ct=free&am...

it would be nice to know how their temps corolate (sp?) to the real world.....

dtbushpilot - 10-4-2011 at 07:38 PM

Don't expect DK to help you with your spelling woody, he's been taking a beating lately.. :lol:

landyacht318 - 10-4-2011 at 07:43 PM

Here is another weather model showing something building in the tropics.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?gfs_pcpn_slp+///6

woody with a view - 10-4-2011 at 07:55 PM

D, i don't count on DK for much except a leg for me to pee on, occassionaly (spell this!)

Yachtster, it kinda validates my version of reality with the smaller storm forming... :light:

torch - 10-4-2011 at 08:07 PM

man o man, I'm fishing the east cape that week. I hope the forcast is wrong or i'll have one hell of a week long hangover.

JESSE - 10-4-2011 at 09:42 PM

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042340
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 4 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

woody with a view - 10-5-2011 at 05:41 AM

looks like three storms are gonna spin at the same time now.

bajajudy - 10-5-2011 at 07:45 AM

I have looked at these temp sites and all I can say is the water is much cooler here than it was a week or so ago. I got goose bumps yesterday. Wish I had a pool thermometer!
As for the chance of storms here...that first one has gone past us. We will have to see about the other one but I am not particularly worried.

Eli - 10-5-2011 at 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bajatripper
[

I read somewhere that La Paz is in the driest part of the Cape Region, and driving through it this year really puts that in perspective. While much of the Cape Region is covered in green, our hills continue to have that post-nuclear holocaust look.

In short, I'd take my rain with sh*t about now.

Welcome home, Eli. It'll be good to have you back.

[Edited on 10-4-2011 by Bajatripper]

Thanks Tripper, I am excited to return home. Although it sounds kind of grim in your neck of the desert. And of course I fear the heat is gonna kick my butt.
Here in the highlands of Vera Cruz, we have had plenty of good rains the last few weeks. What I thought was green and lush before is now unimaginably dense deep greens. This afternoon is down right chilly, lots of low lying clouds. Tis the change in season, folks are starting to wear their winter jackets already.

Hurricane next week

C-Urchin - 10-5-2011 at 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by dtbushpilot
I'm headed back to Buena Vista around then, guess I'd better take the gas powered blender. :bounce:

.......dt

My lumberjack grandpa swears he had a propane clock. :?:

dtbushpilot - 10-5-2011 at 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by C-Urchin

Quote:

Originally posted by dtbushpilot
I'm headed back to Buena Vista around then, guess I'd better take the gas powered blender. :bounce:

.......dt

My lumberjack grandpa swears he had a propane clock. :?:

Hey Urchin, see if you can find a website link to that for me, my gas powered alarm clock keeps me up all night and the fumes really bother the cats :lol:

.....dt

woody with a view - 10-6-2011 at 05:55 AM

has two hurricanes ever merged into one?

Pescador - 10-6-2011 at 06:03 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajajudy
I have looked at these temp sites and all I can say is the water is much cooler here than it was a week or so ago. I got goose bumps yesterday. Wish I had a pool thermometer!
As for the chance of storms here...that first one has gone past us. We will have to see about the other one but I am not particularly worried.

Judy, the onshore water temps are not necessarily correlated with offshore because a lot of things can change it. Terrafin measures the sattelite reflection and is very accurate, but beach temps have way too many influences to accurately measure. So you are right that the water is cooler on the beach, but it is really warm right now a mile off.

bajajudy - 10-6-2011 at 03:58 PM

Pesca...no I dont swim a mile out....for sure!

This is one of my favorite maps.
Please note the Cold Front #5 is coming down the peninsula. That should turn any of those storms away.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/mcs/mcs09c.jpg

Cypress - 10-6-2011 at 04:02 PM

Hurricane season is over.

comitan - 10-6-2011 at 04:16 PM

Ha! Ha!

chippy - 10-6-2011 at 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajajudy
Pesca...no I dont swim a mile out....for sure!

This is one of my favorite maps.
Please note the Cold Front #5 is coming down the peninsula. That should turn any of those storms away.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/mcs/mcs09c.jpg

By the looks of it it will turn those storms right into my house!

UnoMas - 10-6-2011 at 06:46 PM

Amen Cypress......... :yes: