javier projected path

looks like the area between abreojos and punta eugenia will get hit by what should be a tropical storm by that time. santa rosalillita is going to get a lot of rain and will see out that new marina will handle the waves. the storm crosses over and will dump heavy rain between BOLA and san felipe, there will be alot of washed out dirt roads in these areas.

Satellite maps and tracking

thunderheads

Hmmmm and myself and Wild Bill are planning on heading into those same roads on Sunday to help out the stuck travelers, pass out bug spray and drinking water to those in need...glad you decided to stay home and save your vacation time...

We'll be broadcasting live updates from various remote locations for your viewing pleasure...stay tuned.

[Edited on 9-18-2004 by Desertbull]

mexitron-
too bad you guys didn't go down a few days earlier.....see you soon!

Good that you guys

rich, we will be there in two weeks. if you see my trailler float by could you try too tow it back to land for me. ill stop by daggets and look you up.

taco de baja, what a picture::: ouch

Taco, you're killing me

That picture makes me wince.

pictures that make you wince and say ouch

That was the Point


Looks like Javier is weakening hour by hour and will cross south of G. Negro. But will still bring lots of rain to BAja and AZ

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 32
Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on September 18, 2004

Javier is weakening rather quickly this morning as all deep
convection near the center has dissipated. Water vapor images
show southerly winds near the cyclone with plenty of middle to
upper-level dry air...likely accelerating the weakening process.
Satellite estimates from all agencies are decreasing quickly and
the initial intensity is set to 50 kt... a blend of the T/ci
numbers from TAFB.

A recent trmm pass at 1200z suggest that the initial position has
been a little west of our previous estimates. The new motion
estimate is 330/7. The forecast track is shifted a bit farther
west in accordance with recent movement and is just west of the
global consensus. The GFS model is a bit of an outlier as it
delays landfall until tomorrow afternoon. If the GFS is correct
Javier might not be a tropical storm when it reaches west-central
Baja California.

Steady weakening is likely for the next 12 hours due to increasing
south to southwesterly shear...dry mid-level air...and decreasing
water temperatures. Afterward interactions with land will bring
upon a more rapid weakening. On the forecast track...Javier will
likely bring heavy rain to the southwestern United States as early
as Sunday.

Forecaster Blake/Lawrence

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 18/1500z 23.7n 113.4w 50 kt

12hr VT 19/0000z 25.1n 113.7w 45 kt

24hr VT 19/1200z 28.1n 113.5w 30 kt...inland

36hr VT 20/0000z 31.5n 112.8w 25 kt...inland and dissipating

48hr VT 20/1200z 35.0n 111.5w 20 kt...inland and dissipating

72hr VT 21/1200z...dissipated

Be careful

Quote:

Originally posted by Desertbull Quote: Originally posted by Mexitron We were scheduled to be in the Sisters this next week but we opted out....not that the adventure of camping in a tropical storm wouldn't be fun but if road damage is severe we didn't have the extra time to take off work to dig out of 60 miles of dirt roads. Hmmmm and myself and Wild Bill are planning on heading into those same roads on Sunday to help out the stuck travelers, pass out bug spray and drinking water to those in need...glad you decided to stay home and save your vacation time... We'll be broadcasting live updates from various remote locations for your viewing pleasure...stay tuned. [Edited on 9-18-2004 by Desertbull]

Ahhh..gorgeous weather as we continue south...

DK...that area is just one of our many stops as we encompass the entire peninsula in our adventure south to Don Jimmy's and then over towards Todos Santos and eventually heading north in the next couple weeks ending with some fishin' for bottles at BOLA with Stevo...GOT CERVEZA?