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Peso

Howard - 5-12-2012 at 04:23 PM

FYI

Just came from an ATM at the bank and got 13.436 peso's to the $

vandy - 5-12-2012 at 04:31 PM

That makes magna gas about $2.78 per gallon...Just a little over three bucks with the 10% under-read of the pumps thrown in.

Correction: make that "over-read"

[Edited on 5-13-2012 by vandy]

DavidE - 5-12-2012 at 05:31 PM

Monday is going to be witching day for the mexican peso. Most interesting day since 1994.

Sweetwater - 5-13-2012 at 08:40 AM

I was just about to start an "Exchange Rate" thread when I saw this one.....I just clicked into my international rate site and saw the Friday official rate at 13.5746 pesos per dollar.

Wow.....

woody with a view - 5-13-2012 at 10:57 AM

just wait until the euro devalues another 30%!!!!

DENNIS - 5-13-2012 at 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by woody with a view
just wait until the euro devalues another 30%!!!!

...and the new Socialist government starts taxing the French to death instead of cutting back on spending.

woody with a view - 5-13-2012 at 11:27 AM

you mean in france, or kalifornia?

DENNIS - 5-13-2012 at 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by woody with a view
you mean in france, or kalifornia?

Gay Pairee.

Sweetwater - 5-13-2012 at 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by woody with a view
just wait until the euro devalues another 30%!!!!

Can't happen soon enough for me.....heading to Hastings and Tuscany sometime in the nearer future......The Italians were much more negotiable than the bloody Brits.....that pound needs a bit of pounding too.....

DavidE - 5-13-2012 at 02:49 PM

What the PAN is going to instruct the Banco de México to do tomorrow is getting curiouser and curiouser...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/13/us-germany-electio...

Germany has been "rehabilitating" the old East Germany since 1990. The entire sector was like Germany's Appalachia. This is going to put a genuine "B.S. Test" to Deutschland liquidity.

Tomorrow may also prove to be "just a tiny bit of shall we say -strain-" on the DJI.

Beats reading romance novels.

Bajahowodd - 5-13-2012 at 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sweetwater

Quote:

Originally posted by woody with a view
..The Italians were much more negotiable than the bloody Brits.....that pound needs a bit of pounding too.....

For so many years, I've never been able to understand the strength of the Pound Sterling. The Brits are neither an agriculture nor a manufacturing country. What do they export??? Just doesn't make sense to me.

J.P. - 5-13-2012 at 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bajahowodd

Quote:

Originally posted by Sweetwater

Quote:

Originally posted by woody with a view
..The Italians were much more negotiable than the bloody Brits.....that pound needs a bit of pounding too.....

Your statement sounds rather self explanatory. Nothing Ventured = Nothing Gained thus remaning Stable :?:

yellowklr - 5-13-2012 at 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS

Quote:

Originally posted by woody with a view
just wait until the euro devalues another 30%!!!!

...and the new Socialist government starts taxing the French to death instead of cutting back on spending.

You must of meant OBAMA......

Bajaboy - 5-13-2012 at 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by yellowklr

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS

Quote:

Originally posted by woody with a view
just wait until the euro devalues another 30%!!!!

...and the new Socialist government starts taxing the French to death instead of cutting back on spending.

You must of meant OBAMA......

Let's hope so

vandy - 5-13-2012 at 11:50 PM

OK, DavidE, I am almost lost.
I am not used to absorbing so many different variables in the world financial market (I quit chess after my first win: it hurt my brain)
but here goes: MONDAY:

investors lose confidence in the Euro
They invest in the USDollar>>>$ higher
They invest in the DJIA>>>>

JIA higher

That leaves the peso lower to the dollar, meaning more pesos per dollar, and if it's too much (>2%) the Mexicans will sell 400 million dollars of their reserves of USDollars.

If they don't actually have the $ reserves on hand, of course, the peso will plummet. Catastrophically.

But we know they have hundreds of billions in $, right?

Is this your concern? Or have I completely missed it...

Sweetwater - 5-14-2012 at 07:10 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by vandy
OK, DavidE, I am almost lost.
I am not used to absorbing so many different variables in the world financial market (I quit chess after my first win: it hurt my brain)
but here goes: MONDAY:

investors lose confidence in the Euro
They invest in the USDollar>>>$ higher
They invest in the DJIA>>>>

Close....the dollar strengthens....0.5%....which drops US stocks...1% or more....and the peso weakens even more......0.75%......now about those reserve dollars......China has a trillion or so and appreciates a stronger dollar.....buys them more oil and commodities.....which are also down....1.5%........

Welcome to the international world of high finance....

edit: Forgot to mention that the Fed owns closer to 3 trillion of those debt dollars.....and who is that?

[Edited on 5-14-2012 by Sweetwater]

LaPazGringo - 5-14-2012 at 07:52 AM

FWIW, peso at 13.65 today.

Is it time to cash this in?

durrelllrobert - 5-14-2012 at 08:11 AM

chuckie - 5-14-2012 at 08:14 AM

Will any of this affect the price of Pacifico?

DavidE - 5-14-2012 at 09:16 AM

You are correct. Many many forces at work. I am going to wait until the close of the trading day to sort this all out.

Unlike Mexico 1972, Mexico 1985, Mexico 1994, every vendor in every village has some sort of access to currency market reports almost instantly. There will be -solely- social pressure from la gente to retard instant peso price increases on everything from carros to carnitas. Pemex, Pepsi, and Patron could care less about social pressure. They will raise prices. Phone lines between cervezarias will be melting along with the peso, Corona would not stay at it's original peso price while Pacifico raises its prices believe me.

I'm interested in seeing if -Guillermo Ortiz 101- will be applied when pressure on the peso eases.

The DJIA now is connected to the US economy about as strongly as Washington DC is to the plight of the United States. I use the Russel index.

Russ - 5-15-2012 at 07:27 PM

Speaking of the Russell index....

I just got this from a link on eebmike.com

30 day Peso Apr 15 - May 15.jpg - 47kB

Sweetwater - 5-16-2012 at 10:05 AM

Yup, volatile times.

I don't think the international perception of the Mexican government's ability to fight off the drug cartels is helping this exchange rate dilemma.

I would not like being a person who relies on the Peso for revenue and expenditures, this is a hyperinflationary trend that will kill small businesses.

Not good.

DavidE - 5-16-2012 at 04:35 PM

I've been through this crap in 1972, 1982, 1994, you name it.....

It all starts out with "Once upon a time". Car factories, whatever keep working to keep up momentum while mexifinanceprestiditators chortle "five percent growth". Zero unemployment. The ground is bulging upward there is so much oil. We have a thousand tons of foreign currency backing the peso. Everybody's ordering Mexican merchandise. Cruise ships are arriving so laden with eager passengers they're awash almost to the gunnels...How could things possibly be any better?

I remember the outrage in foreign institutional investors after the Christmas Surprise. The wealthy Mexicans laughed all the way to Switzerland and the Bahamas. I just shook my head.

Want to read reality? From a trusted source, about the fire with out? About something that is going to knock the US economy for a loop? But I am not a financiero Mexicano. For the really reliable news about things like economic forecasts, stability, and standards, let me introduce, Bernie Madoff.

DavidE - 5-16-2012 at 04:36 PM

And the link

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18084700

Bajaboy - 5-16-2012 at 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Russ
Speaking of the Russell index....

I just got this from a link on eebmike.com

I often refer to this for perspective: http://www.forecasts.org/peso.htm

DavidE - 5-17-2012 at 08:34 AM

Bajaboy señor,

What am I doing wrong? I clicked on the site and it shows the forecast for "May" at 12.80 to 1 and August 2012 as being 13.50 to 1. Is there another site link within I am missing?

Thank you

David K - 5-17-2012 at 08:40 AM

That means travel in Baja is getting cheaper for us! Cheaper gas and more pesos for the dollar for other things.

Mexico needs tourists and it is the 'Amigo Country' afterall! :biggrin:

durrelllrobert - 5-17-2012 at 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Russ
Speaking of the Russell index....

I just got this from a link on eebmike.com

....and at 7:00Am today it was
1 USD = 13.801 MXN

Bajaboy - 5-17-2012 at 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DavidE
Bajaboy señor,

What am I doing wrong? I clicked on the site and it shows the forecast for "May" at 12.80 to 1 and August 2012 as being 13.50 to 1. Is there another site link within I am missing?

Thank you

I am not sure what you're missing. This site predicts a monthly average for the peso with a certain probability. I look at it to get an idea of what direction the market might be headed and how much beer I will be able to afford on my next visit.

DavidE - 5-17-2012 at 10:37 AM

Oh.

Thank you

Cisco - 5-17-2012 at 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by David K
That means travel in Baja is getting cheaper for us! Cheaper gas and more pesos for the dollar for other things.

Mexico needs tourists and it is the 'Amigo Country' afterall! :biggrin:

I just exchange and buy what I think I will need for a trip each time before I go down.

Should I buy and hoard for future trips at some point or is that counter-productive if it dumps? And there does not seem to be any notice to the common man when it will dump.

jbcoug - 5-17-2012 at 11:01 AM

I don't think I'll be hoarding pesos.

John

Debra - 5-17-2012 at 11:34 AM

Euro = 1.27USD

DavidE - 5-17-2012 at 07:44 PM

I have a hunch...

That el presidente is going to order Banco de México to keep the peso value from reaching 14 to 1 against the US dollar tomorrow, no matter what it takes. The PAN knows if the voters see the peso dump they might as well start packing even before the election takes place in July.

But, this is only a hunch...

DavidE - 5-17-2012 at 07:56 PM

Do some math. 1.4% daily peso inflate for oh, say eighty seven days over the next eight months. What will the peso exchange rate be? This will be way beneath the magic 2% daily trigger arrived at by Banco de Mexico.

Udo - 5-17-2012 at 08:10 PM

Every time I go South, I exchange about $400 U.S more than what I need. Save it for my next trip.
So far there has been only one time that I lost a little over 1 Peso for the dollar, but to this date I've come out waaay ahead.

DavidE - 5-17-2012 at 08:19 PM

BOTTOM LINE

Mexico is going to be the least expensive it has been in a number of years. Inflation will step in over a period of several months but for a while it's going to be a bargain.

Away from the border areas vacations will be amazingly cheap.

After the treasury burns itself out trying to stabilize the currency, and if the € flops the peso may lose ten percent or more value in the next sixty days. A lot of ifs, but at sixteen to one. (?) I would be digging out my sombrero if I were north of the border.

A lot of Nomads don't like the summer climate down here. But down on the pacific coast, when the gulf is roasting and the cape isn't all that comfortable either, a person needs a blanket to sleep comfortably at night. This area is a true almost- undiscovered treasure.

Yeah, I used to do that too

thebajarunner - 5-17-2012 at 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Udo
Every time I go South, I exchange about $400 U.S more than what I need. Save it for my next trip.
So far there has been only one time that I lost a little over 1 Peso for the dollar, but to this date I've come out waaay ahead.

Ended up with a drawer full of very large numbered bills worth very little - no mas, baby, no mas.

Spend it all before you head North

chuckie - 5-18-2012 at 04:39 AM

Thats the plan...Maybe thats why the front deck at the ranch had so many flowerpots on it.... :light:

A Second Opinion

durrelllrobert - 5-18-2012 at 08:40 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2AvU2cfXRk&feature=youtu...

Iflyfish - 5-18-2012 at 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by durrelllrobert
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2AvU2cfXRk&feature=youtu...

Good one!!

Iflyfishbroke

So You Want To Be A Big Time Peso/Dollar Trader :-)

DavidE - 5-19-2012 at 12:25 PM

THE FOLLOWING IS MEANT TO AMUSE NOT TO PROVOKE. HERE IS A LOOK AT THE SWAMP WHERE BE PIANO-SIZE PIRANHA.

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Bid, Ask, Open, High, Low, Close

Bid and Ask are calculated using Interactive Data real-time feed. Open, High, Low and Close are calculated using Interactive Data feed on the indicated Updated Time and with the indicated Time Frame.
Supports and Resistances (S1-S3, R1-R3)

This is a method to forecast the future of the trend by predicting the lows and highs of the current period. The calculation is based on the previous period OHLC prices, thus accounting for volatility and price direction. These levels are to be checked regularly as they adapt to price changes at the close of each period.
Trend Index

Trend Index is a proprietary trend indicator of FXstreet.com. It indicates the bearishness or bullishness of the trend.
OB/OS Index (overbought / oversold Index)

OB/OS Index is a proprietary overbought / oversold indicator of FXstreet.com.
Classical Pivot Points: S1, S2, S3, R1, R2, R3

Pivot points are calculated based on end of day values applying the following formulas:
pivot = (High + Low + Close) / 3
S1 = (2 * pivot) - High
R1 = (2 * pivot) - Low
S2 = pivot - (R1 - S1)
R2 = pivot + (R1 - S1)
S3 = Low - 2 * (High - pivot)
R3 = High + 2 * (pivot - Low)
Camarilla Pivot Points: S1, S2, S3, R1, R2, R3

Camarilla Pivot Points are calculated based on end of day values applying the following formulas:
pivot = (High + Low + Close) / 3
R1 = Close + ((High - Low) * 1.1 / 12)
S1 = Close - ((High - Low) * 1.1 / 12)
R2 = Close + ((High - Low) * 1.1 / 6)
S2 = Close - ((High - Low) * 1.1 / 6)
R3 = Close + ((High - Low) * 1.1 / 4)
S3 = Close - ((High - Low) * 1.1 / 4)
R4 = Close + ((High - Low) * 1.1 / 2)
S4 = Close - ((High - Low) * 1.1 / 2)
R5 = Close * High / Low
S5 = 2 * Close - R5
Simple Moving Average

A moving average is calculated by adding the closing price of the pair for a number of time periods and then dividing this total by the number of time periods.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Exponential Moving Averages are similar to a simple moving average, except that more weight is given to the latest data, so it reacts faster to recent price changes than the simple moving average. The calculation for a k periods exponential average is as follows:
alpha = 2 / (k + 1) EMAinitial = SMA(k) EMAtoday = alpha * ( Closeyesterday - EMAyesterday) + EMAyesterday
Relative Strength Index (RSI)

A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. It is calculated using the following formula:
U = closetoday - closeyesterday
D = 0

The same for down days:
U = 0
D = closeyesterday - closetoday

Then we can calculate RS and RSI:
RS = (EMA[k] of U) /(EMA[k] of D)
RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + RS)

Where RS = Exponential Moving Average of k days' up closes / Exponential Moving Average of k days' down closes.

A pair is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued.
Stochastic Oscillator

A technical momentum indicator that compares a pair's closing price with its price range over a given time period. The oscillator's sensitivity to market movements can be reduced by adjusting the time period or by taking a moving average of the result. This indicator is calculated with the following formula:
%K = 100 * (CLOSEtoday - LOWlowestNDays) / (HIGHhighestNDays - LOWlowestNDays)

Then the SMA of the Stoch %K across 3 periods:
Then we calculate %D = SMA3 of %K
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

A trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two exponential moving averages of prices. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the "signal line", is then plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy and sell signals.
MACD = EMA[12] of price - EMA[26] of price
signal = EMA[9] of MACD
Average Directional Index (ADX)

An indicator used in technical analysis to determine the strength of a prevailing trend. The ADX is measured on a scale between zero and 100. Readings over 25 indicate a strong trend. ADX is not used to determine the direction of a particular trend, but only to gauge its strength.
UpMove = Today's High − Yesterday's High
DownMove = Yesterday's Low − Today's Low
if UpMove > DownMove then +DM = Upmove else +DM = 0
if DownMove > UpMove then -DM = DownMove else -DM = 0

+DI = exponential moving average of +DM divided by Average True Range
-DI = exponential moving average of -DM divided by Average True Range

ADX = EMA(+DM − -DM)
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The Commodity Channel Index quantifies the relationship between the pair's price, a moving average (MA) of the asset's price and normal deviations (D) from that average. It is computed with the following formula:
CCI = (pt - SMA(pt)) / (0.015 * sigma(pt) )
Average True Range (ATR)

The Average True Range is calculated as the 14 periods moving average of the True Ranges, which are defined as the greatest of the following:
ATR = max(HIGH,CLOSEprevious) − min(LOW,CLOSEprevious)
Candlestick Watch

The Candlestick Watch patterns are defined as follows:
Doji
CLOSEt = OPENt
PiercingLine
OPENt < LOWt-1 and CLOSEt > (OPENt-1 + CLOSEt-1)/2
DarkCloudCover
OPENt > HIGHt-1 Y CLOSEt < (OPENt-1 + CLOSEt-1)/2
Engulfing Bullish
HIGHt > HIGHt-1 Y LOWt < LOWt-1 Y CLOSEt > HIGHt-1
Engulfing Bearish
HIGHt > HIGHt-1 Y LOWt < LOWt-1 Y CLOSEt < LOWt-1
Evening Star
OPENt < CLOSEt and Abs(CLOSEt – OPENt) >= candelpips and
Abs(CLOSEt – OPENt) =< candelpips and OPENt >CLOSEt-1 Y CLOSEt >CLOSEt-1 and
OPENt >LOWt-1 and CLOSEt < OPENt and CLOSEt < CLOSEt-2 and CLOSEt >OPENt-2
Morning Star
OPENt > CLOSEt and Abs(CLOSEt – OPENt) >= candelpips and
Abs(CLOSEt – OPENt) <= candelpips and OPENt < CLOSEt-1 and CLOSEt < CLOSEt-1
OPENt >HIGHt-1 and CLOSEt > OPENt and CLOSEt > CLOSEt-2 and CLOSEt < OPENt-2
ShottingStar
Abs(CLOSEt – OPENt) =< candelpips and OPENt >CLOSEt and
OPENt > HIGHt-1 and
(Abs(HIGHt – OPENt) >= 3 * Abs(CLOSEt – OPENt)) and
Abs(OPENt – LOWt) <= uppershadow
Hammer
Abs(CLOSEt – OPENt) <= candelpips and OPENt t and
Abs(OPENt – LOWt) >= 2* Abs(CLOSEt – OPENt) and
Abs(HIGHt – OPENt) <= uppershadow
Harami Bullish
Abs(OPENt – CLOSEt) >= candelpips and OPENt > CLOSEt
Abs(OPENt – CLOSEt) <= candelpips and OPENt < CLOSEt
LOWt-1 < LOWt and HIGHt-1 > HIGHt
Harami Bearish
Abs(OPENt – CLOSEt) >= candelpips and OPENt < CLOSEt and
Abs(OPENt – CLOSEt) <= candelpips and OPENt > CLOSEt and
LOWt-1 < LOWt and HIGHt-1 > HIGHt
Most Popular Content

Udo - 5-19-2012 at 12:40 PM

All this complicated formula just to save 90 centavos when you buy gas??

Cypress - 5-19-2012 at 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Udo
All this complicated formula just to save 90 centavos when you buy gas??

DavidE - 5-19-2012 at 01:17 PM

You Couldn't Have Said It Better Myself Udo... :-)

This is EXACTLY what is wrong with the currency trading market and why their forecasts are wildly inaccurate.

NYSE, NASDAQ, CME, and other "experts" use exactly the same hocus-pocus
They would not DREAM of going and visiting a corporation before rating it. Hell, most of them have never traveled in the same STATE as the corp they try and rate.

Currency traders know Mexico mostly via Taco Bell and a Chihuahua.

BUT, if a Nomad of modest means is holding onto a wad of pesos in a bank account

Suddenly all this is not so funny.

rts551 - 5-19-2012 at 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DavidE
Monday is going to be witching day for the mexican peso. Most interesting day since 1994.

Wasn't very interesting.what happened?

chuckie - 5-19-2012 at 02:46 PM

Nuttin

DavidE - 5-19-2012 at 05:50 PM

Exactly and precisely that! Nothing. And "something" should have, and it did. Take a close look at what happens at 0600 CDT every morning from the Friday the week before onward. Banco de Mexico is injecting money, lots of it, into buying pesos, every day, and then waiting to "see" what transpires. This sort of sleuthing isn't for everyone.

Now go back and research the steady decline of the Chilean peso. Chile does not want to defend its peso. Yet far and away it relies on the US economy. At least as much as does Mexico.

"Nothing" happened an awful lot during the summer of 1994. I think all of the financeros in Mexico learned a big lesson from that, but there is an election at stake. PAN realizes if the allow the peso the lose value -the way it should- naturally, and raise to fourteen and beyond against the dollar, they might as well pack it in for decades. The PRI will again turn into a machine that will be next to impossible to overcome for many sexenios.

But all this is nerd stuff. Gotta be patient and see what happens between now and after the election. It is certain that PAN will burn the furniture before it too gets a reputation of "causing" a weakening of the peso "Just Like The PRI Did" repeatedly. Rome fiddles while Nero burns. Of course the phrase "When The United States Catches Cold Mexico Gets Pneumonia" (economically) hasn't been coined yet. Mexico's is a service-oriented economy. Throw an economic monkey-wrench into the works, a cut in oil exports, a disaster in auto sales and exports (they are filling up the lots in Puebla and elsewhere), to at least a million returnees, arriving without a cent in their pocket, and you have agricultural exports, only, as a bright spot. Las Truchas, Sicartsa, in my home town area has cut steel production by more than twenty percent. Steel used primarily for varilla, re-bar.

But pondering these points can be a downer for some folks. This chatter isn't intended to slip ice cubes into your shorts. The worst thing that can happen is for visitors to not come and spend money. Overland tourism is way, way down. Prime seats with the best view in the best restaurants are empty. The best rooms in the hotels are vacant. Prime camp spots are waiting. Yet those who could afford to visit despite the economy, have decided for one reason or another (fear or timidity) to not do so.

Tracking the economy and the politics of Mexico and latin america is a hobby of mine, as is alternator rebuilding and electrical troubleshooting, and gardening. Out of all of them the former is by far the most challenging. I love it.

DavidE - 5-19-2012 at 06:54 PM

June 9, 2012 is going to be much more exciting.

He HAS TO win, with a name like that!

chuckie - 5-19-2012 at 07:10 PM

June 12, will be more so! Thats my Birthday...Penelope Cruz has promised me "somezing especial"... :tumble:

DavidE - 5-19-2012 at 08:11 PM

Feliz Cumpleaños en adelante amigo!

WOW

Sweetwater - 5-23-2012 at 08:02 AM

The dollar has strengthened again....$82.10

and the Peso exchange is 14.04 per dollar.....when do the common folks of Mexico start feeling the pain?

DavidE - 5-23-2012 at 01:06 PM

Every shopkeeper knows what the peso exchange rate is. In a small rural village a cuñado may call on his cellular to let an owner of a tiny tienda know what the peso did or did not do that day.

Locally grown produce is "way" more expensive than it was a year ago, far outstripping any percentage differential of the dollar versus peso. To a poor Mexican, twenty percent or thirty percent increase is "way" more expensive.

The days of "devaluation" and finding tourist stuff half price is long-gone.

Sweetwater - 5-23-2012 at 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DavidE
Every shopkeeper knows what the peso exchange rate is. In a small rural village a cuñado may call on his cellular to let an owner of a tiny tienda know what the peso did or did not do that day.

Locally grown produce is "way" more expensive than it was a year ago, far outstripping any percentage differential of the dollar versus peso. To a poor Mexican, twenty percent or thirty percent increase is "way" more expensive.

The days of "devaluation" and finding tourist stuff half price is long-gone.

That's my concern......I don't want to see a local who is getting squeezed....and squeezed.....and hanging on......because he lives in Baja.....every day.......not like he's a visitor with King Dollar in his pocket....or can renegotiate his "contract" as this unfolds.......or his teenagers can relate to the situation.....

DavidE - 5-24-2012 at 09:03 AM

I fix a wage for anyone that works for me, and tell them flat out that their sueldo is guaranteed in dollars. I have done that so as to set an example to wealthy Mexicans and well-off foreigners that can do without exploiting their workers. Too many wealthy Mexicans are like wealthy Americans, they sit on their arses in coffee clatches, and brag to one another how they managed to screw their workers. Don't bother arguing, I've sat in on plenty of these little exploitation soireés. They are disgusting.

Just last month I pressed a twenty peso note into the gnarled hand of an elderly hotel maid working in a very inexpensive place. She was ecstatic. The next night I found extra pillows, blanket, and towels in the room. These folks stay alive by their wages and live on their tips. The tips come far and in-between. Try leaving a bank note instead of a coin for a hotel room tip --- they will danged sure say "Gracias!" even though you may be down the road. But some slimy hotel personnel slip into a room soon after a gringo departs, and pockets the tip. I leave mine somewhere where a maid can find it (folded over bedspread).

DavidE - 5-25-2012 at 07:12 PM

Here is a link to a story about an economist I agree with. I read his chicken-little in the summer of '87 and all of his detractors who ridiculed him and his theories. Forgot about Faber until I stumbled on this story ten minutes ago...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47566735

DavidE - 5-30-2012 at 11:22 AM

PESO CIRCUIT BREAKER FORMULA

A 2.0% figure is used as a "trigger" to support the peso with foreign reserves, the US Dollar. Let's do a day-by-day weakening of the peso, under the "circuit breaker" limit of 2.0% and stay with say, 1.9%. This is just a drill.

Start Day 14.1
(2) 14.36
(3) 14.63

(4) 14.90
(5) 15.18

MONDAY Theoretically can start at 14.10
FRIDAY Theoretically can finish at 15.18

Now let's go back to the days of the old peso, when on a Monday it "theoretically" started at 1,410 to the dollar, the following Friday it "theoretically" finished at 1,518 to the dollar.

This example was constructed solely to demonstrate the mechanics of Banco de México's peso 2% circuit breaker policy in use today. Nothing else is implied.

Curt63 - 5-30-2012 at 02:06 PM

peso

DENNIS - 5-31-2012 at 09:12 AM

14.3102.....as we speak.

DavidE - 5-31-2012 at 10:40 AM

"When" things settle down, Banco de México will try using "Ortiz-isimo" to back the peso using hundred million dollar increments. If a hundred million works they will try as much as three hundred million and wait several days in-between to see what happens.

Frankly I think Wall Street is on drugs. I see postings of Mexico's so-called dollar-reserves, that equal one thousand two hundred, thirty dollars for every man, woman and child in Mexico. Just in dollar reserves. Held at the ready solely to defend the peso.

How can I take anything the financial sector reports, seriously? I cannot.

DavidE - 5-31-2012 at 06:10 PM

And Andrés Manuél Lopez Obradór, is almost even with Mota, the PAN presidential candidate in the polls. Tomorrow, Friday will tell all. Will Banco de México pour billions into dulling the decline of the peso tomorrow? We shall see. The pressure must be enormous to do just that. My bet is Guillermo Ortíz will end up as scapegoat and end up falling on his sword. The presidential race is heating up.

[Edited on 6-1-2012 by DavidE]

Bajatripper - 5-31-2012 at 07:23 PM

The peso closed today (May 31) at 14.43 to the dollar, the highest (or lowest, depending on one's perspective) it's been in three years, according to Telmex news.

Bajaboy - 6-1-2012 at 10:24 AM

Anyone know what the rate at Costco Chula is at the moment?

DENNIS - 6-1-2012 at 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bajaboy
Anyone know what the rate at Costco Chula is at the moment?

Donno..........but it's 14.4570 on my monitor right now.

And....Facebook is foundering at 27.66.

.

[Edited on 6-1-2012 by DENNIS]

Bajaboy - 6-1-2012 at 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS

Quote:

Originally posted by Bajaboy
Anyone know what the rate at Costco Chula is at the moment?

Donno..........but it's 14.4570 on my monitor right now.

And....Facebook is foundering at 27.66.

[Edited on 6-1-2012 by DENNIS]

just started a building project and budgeted at 13 to 1...time to exchange some dollars :tumble:

I'll reward my guys with more beer :!:

[Edited on 6-1-2012 by Bajaboy]

DavidE - 6-1-2012 at 12:21 PM

Banco de México is pouring on the dollars buying pesos at the moment. They are praying that international markets calm down very soon. Three hundred million dollar increments every four hours. They started in the early AM, as usual, in the hope that the purchases would look spontaneous and not orchestrated by the central bank.

I would pay money not to be in the chairman's office or within a city block of the treasury at the moment. Blood must be flowing freely.