Iflyfish - 6-21-2012 at 08:20 PM
http://www.pewglobal.org/2012/06/20/mexicans-back-military-c...
Iflyfish
BajaBruno - 6-21-2012 at 10:43 PM
Pew Research does very good work. This is an interesting study for the contrast between Mexican's views of President Calderon and the PAN (favorable)
and their current support for the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto (high).
It makes one wonder if this is not a recast of the 2008 US Democrat's choice between an African American male and a White female. Is Obama the
president simply because even liberal Americans couldn't stomach choosing a female? And, is Peña Nieto going to become president of Mexico for the
same reason? Interesting questions.
SFandH - 6-22-2012 at 06:37 AM
It's hard to believe all the numbers about all the different topics mentioned in this article.
It stated they interviewed 1,200 people. There are 112.3 million people in Mexico. Let's say 1/2 are adults, 1,200 is 0.002 percent.
I know it's PEW's speciality, but that's a tiny sample. How can it be representative? No margins of error are stated.
Skeptical.
[Edited on 6-22-2012 by SFandH]
BajaBruno - 6-22-2012 at 08:52 AM
SFandH, "The margin of sampling error is ±3.8 percentage points" (from page 2). The margin of error is based on the sample size, rather than the
population size. Assuming a random, well distributed sample, 1,200 interviews is plenty enough to measure the pulse of a large population.
Pew is actually using a very conservative figure for their margin of error, because I calculated it as +/-2.8 %points. They are known for doing very
high quality work.
SFandH - 6-22-2012 at 09:09 AM
Thanks Bruno. I'm always surprised by the smallness required by the sampling technique. And assuming a well distributed sample is the key.
But a statistician I'm not. Perhaps my skepticism comes from some of the results being contrary to what I would have guessed based upon zero facts.
And I know PEW is a well respected public opinion gatherer, but I also know that once upon a time the bond rating agencies were well respected for
what they did.
I'm a born skeptic.