BajaNomad

Is the tourist/real estate business coming back?

SFandH - 7-11-2012 at 07:31 AM

On a recent visit to Rosarito I noticed work has restarted on a couple of the high rises between TJ and Rosarito. I'm wondering what the nomads residents of the area think. Is the tourist/real estate business picking up?

BFS - 7-11-2012 at 11:39 AM

In our small real estate office here in TS as of July 1, we have closed on 1 more transaction than all of 2011 combined and about 12 more than all of 2010.

BajaGeoff - 7-11-2012 at 03:17 PM

It is definitely picking up...we have been super busy all year.

I am hearing the same thing from friends in the real estate and vacation rental business....

mes1952 - 7-11-2012 at 03:58 PM

I have lived in Rosarito near downtown and I would say 80% of tourism now is Mexicans...you rarely see American tourists walking on the beaches around the Rosarito Beach Hotel area. Most of the rentals in the complex where I live are Mexicans from Mexicali. Those unoccupied highrises are still not in demand otherwise they would have been completed much sooner than simply working on them periodically as it is now.

woody with a view - 7-11-2012 at 04:24 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by mes1952
Those unoccupied highrises are still not in demand otherwise they would have been completed much sooner than simply working on them periodically as it is now.


and meanwhile they just rust away. do they sandblast the beams, girders and columns when they decide to continue to build?

:?:

oxxo - 7-11-2012 at 04:36 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by woody with a view
and meanwhile they just rust away. do they sandblast the beams, girders and columns when they decide to continue to build?


Good question! When those same beams, girders, and columns are partially completed and some of that steel is encased in concrete, the rust may migrate down inside the concrete and weaken the steel infrastructure over several years. I'm not sure I would want to buy into one of those highrise buildings with a potential structural defect and lack of structural integrity.

Barry A. - 7-11-2012 at 04:43 PM

When building freeway bridges in San Diego way back when, we ALWAYS sandblasted the reinforcing steel before the next "pour" (that was my job)----------it is SOP. I shutter to think that they may not do that in the highrises.

Barry

Cisco - 7-11-2012 at 05:14 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by oxxo
Quote:
Originally posted by woody with a view
and meanwhile they just rust away. do they sandblast the beams, girders and columns when they decide to continue to build?


Good question! When those same beams, girders, and columns are partially completed and some of that steel is encased in concrete, the rust may migrate down inside the concrete and weaken the steel infrastructure over several years. I'm not sure I would want to buy into one of those highrise buildings with a potential structural defect and lack of structural integrity.


Since entropy always wins anyway, why fight it?

Alm - 7-13-2012 at 05:38 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by mes1952
I have lived in Rosarito near downtown and I would say 80% of tourism now is Mexicans...you rarely see American tourists walking on the beaches around the Rosarito Beach Hotel area. Most of the rentals in the complex where I live are Mexicans from Mexicali.

Doesn't surprise me. One reason is that US economy is down. There are buyers packed with money, but those are people that accumulated their wealth long time ago and are now retiring. They are not "tourists", i.e. transient vacationers. Another reason - related to the first one - is that Mexican manufacturing sector has grown a lot since NAFTA, especially along the border. This country is densely populated, and even if the number of people that can afford a seaside vacation is lower per capita than in the US, but due to huge population there is enough people that can. I see a lot of similarities to China - very low average standards, but ridiculously huge population, and therefore enough billionaires to drive luxury properties up in other countries.

Udo - 7-13-2012 at 06:03 PM

Speaks like an optimistic RE salesperson.
Quote:
Originally posted by Alm
Quote:
Originally posted by mes1952
I have lived in Rosarito near downtown and I would say 80% of tourism now is Mexicans...you rarely see American tourists walking on the beaches around the Rosarito Beach Hotel area. Most of the rentals in the complex where I live are Mexicans from Mexicali.

Doesn't surprise me. One reason is that US economy is down. There are buyers packed with money, but those are people that accumulated their wealth long time ago and are now retiring. They are not "tourists", i.e. transient vacationers. Another reason - related to the first one - is that Mexican manufacturing sector has grown a lot since NAFTA, especially along the border. This country is densely populated, and even if the number of people that can afford a seaside vacation is lower per capita than in the US, but due to huge population there is enough people that can. I see a lot of similarities to China - very low average standards, but ridiculously huge population, and therefore enough billionaires to drive luxury properties up in other countries.

Barry

captkw - 7-13-2012 at 06:28 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Barry A.
When building freeway bridges in San Diego way back when, we ALWAYS sandblasted the reinforcing steel before the next "pour" (that was my job)----------it is SOP. I shutter to think that they may not do that in the highrises.*** Hola,does the name "ricktor" or maybe "Rictor" ring a bell in the highways in S.D. to you ???? a older custermer of mine a few years back stated his father built a lot of the early S.D. highways ???...K & T :?:

Barry

Alm - 7-14-2012 at 11:53 AM

Well, if this is an "optimistic" then I don't know what a pessimist is. IMO, the only "selling" that has been going on there - without my direct involvement - was selling US and other Western economies out to the third world, stimulating the population growth in already over-populated countries and increasing pressure on natural resources. Eventually we'll all have to pay for this, and pay dearly.
Quote:
Originally posted by Udo
Speaks like an optimistic RE salesperson.

Quote:
Originally posted by Alm
...



[Edited on 7-14-2012 by Alm]

DavidE - 7-14-2012 at 04:01 PM

Let's hope it continues while it can. Mexican "booms" are so transient; a hotel site can be swarming with scores of workers one day, concrete mixers lined up to dump, cranes swinging back and forth, and the next day, dust and a keening wind.

Gotta look a little deeper than the DJIA, or construction activities for clues I'm afraid. It's like judging the validity of investing by appraising the clothes of the guy trying to make you buy his stock. You have to look at the "roots". There you will find reality...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18823668

Alm - 8-6-2012 at 07:44 PM

David - yes, Mexican "booms" are transient.

Chinese "slowdown" in the linked article is not just transient - it's a short lasting anomaly, if you ask me. China is lobbying for building new coal terminals in Pacific Northwest right now, because in the last 2 years they've turned from coal net exporter to net importer. Not because they are mining less coal now, but because they consume more. When population is huge, the consumption by middle class - when such class appears - quickly becomes huge too. No, Mexico isn't at par here, I agree.

805gregg - 8-8-2012 at 06:55 PM

Doubtful, the only money is drug cartels, americans are out.

Alm - 8-11-2012 at 08:05 PM

Cartels or not, somebody is buying those casas and casitas. More than last year, if the above posts are true. Demand from the US has dropped, but car and furniture factories along the border are still running.

Besides, American baby-boomers have to go somewhere, the wave is still rising, should peak in the next few years. Everyday I hear that retirees have lost their savings in the last crisis, yeah, sure... Somebody in his 60s is - usually - mortgage free and has a nice equity in his home NOB, purchased decades ago, plus savings. Some choose to cash in and downsize to trailer or Baja shack, and enjoy life, why not...

mes1952 - 8-12-2012 at 11:43 AM

Most people I know who are around age 60 are still working rather than being in the "retired at age 60 stage" which is a pipe dream for many of us. People are who are still employed have a totally different perspective of what's going on in the U.S. economy vs. those who are retired or not working and living in Baja.
And if you believe the U.S. statistics that at least 20% of mortgages nationwide are underwater, there's not much in the way of equity esp. for those who are supporting adult kids who are working minimum wage jobs and can't survive on their own.
And most Americans don't have the inflated pensions to buy all those currentlyt unoccupied/abandoned luxury places that dot the Baja coastline; more likely they'll be occupied by the more affluent Mexicans. The current stream of Americans in Tijuana and Rosarito are renters...not homeowners as they either lost their jobs and spent most of their retirement funds just surviving day to day.