Coming ashore just when we are supposed to be fishing on Tues.....
Russ - 10-13-2012 at 12:40 PM
Or maybe nottiotomasbcs - 10-13-2012 at 12:45 PM
No worries, Amigo. Only 30% chance of rain and if it does you can go pickin camaroncitos in the Rio! Lots of things can happen with these T Ds. My
friends caught sm-med Dorado out of Cerritos beach last week. No Bad Days. Tio
From EEBMike
BillP - 10-13-2012 at 01:13 PM
Quote:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST
LONGITUDE.. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS FORMING ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...AND IT HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
BornFisher - 10-13-2012 at 01:20 PM
Fishing weatherman says it`s going to happen!!! This was from 10/10 though!
Stay away Paul, We are tired of the rain already. I looked at Bouyweather and found they predicted big winds and nasty weather on Wed. and I had
not seen anything else on the screen until I saw Paul was raising hell and bound to hit the peninsula on Wed. Not only is the boat in the garage, but
I think I will have the buckets ready for the leaking roof as well.acadist - 10-13-2012 at 05:53 PM
WOW, maybe it's a good thing that I had to cancel. Would be arriving in Asuncion for a week of camping about now if work hadn't fixed it. Stay safe
everyone!Russ - 10-13-2012 at 06:33 PM
Wow ! I checked it out this morning and didn't think much of it. What a change over the last 12 hours. It's huge. mcfez - 10-13-2012 at 09:22 PM
What's anyone's opinion that part of this will hit San Felipe....and how much? Just my luck I'll be driving there Tuesday :-(
helmet waterproof?
akshadow - 10-13-2012 at 10:23 PM
How are your windshield washers?
Hope it does not get that far north
Quote:
Originally posted by mcfez
What's anyone's opinion that part of this will hit San Felipe....and how much? Just my luck I'll be driving there Tuesday :-(
DaliDali - 10-14-2012 at 06:41 AM
Rain baby rain......
3 years of drought sucks!!!tiotomasbcs - 10-14-2012 at 06:46 AM
You're doomed Shari, Doc, David. Bahia has been in the sights all season! We all wanted rain and now we're gettin what we asked for!!
Tiobajajudy - 10-14-2012 at 07:06 AM
Sure looks like rain here this morning but the Weather Channel says 0%.
Vamos a ver.mulegemichael - 10-14-2012 at 07:33 AM
we just moved everything back in the house, shop and guest casitas after evacuating it a couple weeks ago for the other storm...now this
one....sheesh!BajaBlanca - 10-14-2012 at 07:35 AM
I started to get worried and hubbie says ...wait ...wait ... til Monday and Tuesday because the water gets cooler and cooler as Paul heads north.
vamos a ver !
[Edited on 10-14-2012 by BajaBlanca]mcfez - 10-14-2012 at 08:18 AM
No problem......I'll use your hair dryer at the house since you are still "up there" :-)
Quote:
Originally posted by akshadow
How are your windshield washers?
Hope it does not get that far north
Quote:
Originally posted by mcfez
What's anyone's opinion that part of this will hit San Felipe....and how much? Just my luck I'll be driving there Tuesday :-(
I'll take bets on no rain in Asuncion! Now Mulege.....hmmmmm????mulegemichael - 10-14-2012 at 10:59 AM
it's asuncion's turn!oladulce - 10-14-2012 at 11:08 AM
Bummer woody, you've been talking about this trip for a while.
It was bright and sunny this morning but you could see a wall of clouds approaching from the south. The wall just arrived (at 26°N) and now it's a
weird kind of dark outside- darker than just an overcast. But fairly glassy still and no smell of rain. Paul seems to be holding a lot of water in the
current infrared sat pics.Mulegena - 10-14-2012 at 11:31 AM
There's a blanket of cloud from the south bisecting the sky east-west.
It just arrived and is strange. The southern sky over Mulege is completely cloud-covered; the northern sky is pristine blue.mulegemichael - 10-14-2012 at 11:50 AM
i just walked outside and looked at it; yer right, very strange cloud formationRuss - 10-14-2012 at 12:11 PM
1 pm; North clear but everywhere else has high clouds. Doesn't look like rain and there is a North breeze to cool things off, 81º bajajudy - 10-14-2012 at 01:42 PM
Still dark here but no rain and no wind.vandenberg - 10-14-2012 at 01:50 PM
On eebmike it looks like it's moving up the peninsula in a hurry.tiotomasbcs - 10-14-2012 at 02:05 PM
Uh Oh! Now it looks like it's right at us here in Pescadero. That red/white blob looks serious! Apparently it is moving more quickly but no wind
here all day? Dark skies with silver gray clouds but not menacing yet. Time to batten down the hatches, mates. Thanks for the update/ pics Russ.
This is sure a fine Howdy Do Woody! Tio
Paul 'B' commin'
EdZeranski - 10-14-2012 at 03:37 PM
Wahoo! Were scheduled to head south on Wednesday, San Diego to GN then Loreto on Thursday....will watch the weather radar and Baja Nomad. New tires,
new windshield wipers, new rabbits foot.
EdZ
San Diego(Ocean Beach)
Borrego Springsshari - 10-14-2012 at 03:58 PM
the outer band clouds have reached us now...it's gonna be a kick butt sunset dudes...AND the guys just came in with the decks awash with
yellowtail...sashimi anyone?bajafam - 10-14-2012 at 06:15 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by tiotomasbcs
You're doomed Shari, Doc, David. Bahia has been in the sights all season! We all wanted rain and now we're gettin what we asked for!!
Tio
We forgot to close the roof hatch this A.M. before we went north Tio............ We're doomed ! Doomed I tell Ya ! Russ - 10-14-2012 at 08:39 PM
He's coming
possible rain !!
captkw - 10-14-2012 at 09:30 PM
HOLA, Imo baja sur needs all the rain it can get !! but not in 12 hours !! poco de poco.... K&TPaula - 10-14-2012 at 10:20 PM
Slow, steady rain in Loreto. Nice.... for now.Bob and Susan - 10-15-2012 at 05:55 AM
monday morning...
i better run the generator today...
shari - 10-15-2012 at 05:58 AM
the horizon was a string of boat lights all night....fishermen running north to avoid the wrath of Paul...geez I'm surprised no one took me up on my
bet for no rain here...all bets are off now by the way!!!
Calm and partly cloudy here at 0 dark thirty...today will be the last day for sport fishing as all boats will be hauled up on shore
tonight...dang...just when fishing is heating up.bajalinda - 10-15-2012 at 06:34 AM
Woke up to rain here this morning at La Aguja - slow and gentle rain. very spotty internet. over and out.oladulce - 10-15-2012 at 08:45 AM
The NHC's most recent forecast just put us under TS watch and forecast 50-60mph as Paul passes off shore here Tuesday night/Wed am.
This storm path is the kind we dread the most. Howling wind off the water churns, and chop scours all the sand away leaving behind deep trenches
where no waves break. If there's enough rain along with the wind, sand will get washed down the arroyos, in to the ocean, and on the beaches and the
slow cycle of sand migration can begin right away.
Unfortunately, except for Hurr. Lester, we don't usually get a lot of the rain here- just the wind. Not only is the sand taken away with this kind of
storm, but there's no new deposits washed down from the mountains to start the replenishment cycle again.
In the 20 yrs we've been hanging around here there have been 2 storms with similar offshore paths that have dramatically changed the "beachscape" in a
matter of hours. After one storm it took 3 yrs for the sand to return, and the other time it was 5 long years before there was enough sand on the
bottom to allow waves to break again.
I'm older now and 5 yrs is a very looong time and I'm too old to start a new obsessive "hobby". So if you're coming here Pablo, at least bring some
rain with you.bajajudy - 10-15-2012 at 09:57 AM
Still raining here. A little bit more wind but nothing serious. It does look like we have our own little storm right over us.
Cant wait to see what tomorrow brings.....................
The Plot Thickens
tortuga - 10-15-2012 at 02:34 PM
Take care !
tortuga - 10-15-2012 at 02:37 PM
To all that will be impacted, may it go well
Saludos, TortugaRuss - 10-15-2012 at 03:32 PM
Thanks for the updated track. I hadn't realized it moved south. If it decides to go over the mountains instead Mulege could get clobbered again. Stay
West Paul!DianaT - 10-15-2012 at 03:34 PM
I hope it takes a very sharp turn left --- out to sea. We are just wondering if it is time to put out the call for boarding up our windows. Glad we
have new roofs! A little rain is good --- Paul is not looking good.
[Edited on 10-15-2012 by DianaT]watizname - 10-16-2012 at 01:57 AM
Good Luck to all in the way of this monster. Prayers be with you.scouse - 10-16-2012 at 08:23 AM
Cat 1 west of Todos Santos this morning. Keep your feet dry you guys.
Originally posted by watizname
Good Luck to all in the way of this monster. Prayers be with you.
Yes a safe outcome for all who are there !micah202 - 10-16-2012 at 12:27 PM
this news from a newsfeed from ventana.....
''The government of Mexico has replaced the Tropical Storm Warning with a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the East Coast of Baja California from
San Evaristo (north of La Paz) to Mulege. Summary of watches and warnings in effect...A Hurricane Warning is in effect for..."*West Coast of Baja
California from Santa Fe northward to Punta
Abreojos......* East Coast of Baja California from San Evaristo to Mulege''
...be safe,,,,may the waters be plentiful but gentle
[Edited on 10-16-2012 by micah202]EngineerMike - 10-16-2012 at 11:03 PM
11:00 pm Pacific time, looks like Paul slowed, took a turn to follow the coast northwesterly, will rake the coast for a ways, then will turn back out
into the Pacific.
Hope the west coaster's got your hatches battened down!
Don't go out in the wind.micah202 - 10-17-2012 at 12:02 AM
...hmm ,,not sure about some of the language in this article.....if I was on the coast for 75mph and 10'' of rain,,,I'd have difficulty saying 'it's
not really a hurricane' .....nasty how it's bowling straight up the peninsula.
.I guess there's probably no 'net....I'm praying y'all are allright!!!
...they say it's going to hit 'lightly populated fishing areas',,,but mention 'opening shelters for 30,000 people'!.....something's unclear about
this!...anybody seen a 'shelter' on baja????
-----------------------------------------------------
''Hurricane Paul loses steam off Mexico west coast''
(AFP) – 8 hours ago
LA PAZ, Mexico — Hurricane Paul weakened as it crawled toward Mexico's Pacific coast Tuesday, but schools and government offices were closed as the
storm approached a lightly populated area.
The hurricane lost punch as it neared the Baja California peninsula, with maximum sustained winds dropping to 120 kilometers per hour (75 miles per
hour), the US National Hurricane Center said.
"Hurricane Paul slows down and is weakening rapidly," the Miami-based center said in its 2100 GMT advisory, warning that "preparations to protect life
and property should have been completed."
Paul, which weakened during the day to a category one hurricane on the five-level Saffir-Simpson scale, was about 15 kilometers (10 miles) from the
town of Cabo San Lazaro on the southwestern coast of the peninsula.
Moving north at 24 kph (15 mph), Paul was "barely a hurricane" and was expected to continue moving near or over Baja California's west coast during
the next 12 hours, the center added.
Isolated areas could see up to 25 centimeters (10 inches) of rainfall, the center said, adding that the storm could produce "life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides" in mountainous areas.
Paul was also expected to generate dangerous ocean swells and rip currents.
Civil protection authorities in the state of Baja California Sur issued an alert and as a precaution they opened 133 shelters that can house around
30,000 people.(they have shelters down there???!?,seems surprising)
"For safety reasons, work is suspended in all government offices," said Baja California Sur Governor Marco Covarrubias Villasenor.
Authorities expected the hurricane to hit lightly-populated fishing areas.
[Edited on 10-17-2012 by micah202]shari - 10-17-2012 at 07:25 AM
Why would having emergency shelters surprise you? Each village has well organized shelters The military was driving around yesterday and had the 2
shelters here open for business...they were very profesional and people who live in the arroyos and low lying areas or in cardboard shacks know to
seek refuge there.EngineerMike - 10-17-2012 at 08:09 AM
Just heard from Mulege very briefly by cell phone; only got two data points due to brevity of call, both in Oasis Park (next development downstream
from big highway bridge after the Orchard). These numbers are preliminary in my book due to hasty initial assessment-
House M-3 in Oasis Park got 4 feet of water,
House 56 in Oasis (mine) got ~8feet.
So far as known at this point, everybody there is safe but wet & muddy for those down by the river. Not sure how this translates to downtown, but
hard for those numbers not to have put good flow of water thru town.
Orchard would have been 2-4 feet higher than my house, maybe 10-12 feet.
Pretty close to Hurricane John numbers.
Purely my guess but would probably be less mud than John, given John & recent floods in the Mulege estuary.micah202 - 10-17-2012 at 08:50 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by shari
Why would having emergency shelters surprise you? Each village has well organized shelters The military was driving around yesterday and had the 2
shelters here open for business...they were very profesional and people who live in the arroyos and low lying areas or in cardboard shacks know to
seek refuge there.
....I hadn't realized things were as organized,,believe me I'm VERY glad to hear there's such support!scouse - 10-17-2012 at 05:13 PM
Looks like Paul is heading out to sea again.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012 9:25 AM MDT Tropical Depression Paul (yellow arrow) is expected to move northwest into the colder waters of the Pacific
and dissipate by late Thursday. Clearing will occur across the state throught he day today as this fast moving storm leaves as fast as it came. The
greatest impact was felt along the Pacific coast in the pueblo of San Carlos, where 300 persons took refuge in government shelters. Flooding and some
damage to Hwy 1 between Constucion and San Rosalia has cause temporary closures. Rain was intense and reports sketchy from Santa Rosalia to Guerrero
Negro and north into the deserts.shari - 10-17-2012 at 05:49 PM
buen viaje Paul...thanks for not ripping our roof off and giving us an excuse to have a party.tortuga - 10-18-2012 at 04:10 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by shari
buen viaje Paul...thanks for not ripping our roof off and giving us an excuse to have a party.
Tortuga "LIKES" this Mulegena - 10-18-2012 at 03:20 PM
Now that this is a "been here and done us" hurricane,
I have to ask Woody how the heck he knew this particular
weather system 'waaay down south this late in the year
would be a "gully washer"?
I have to say this really caught us by surprise-- we were prepared--
but really surprised to see a hurricane rattle the windows this late in the year!
Tio
