BajaNomad

First day of hurricane season and..............

bajajudy - 5-15-2013 at 03:06 PM

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/?index_region=ep

Although it is no threat to Baja, it does seem a little early to start.
Here we go!

desertcpl - 5-15-2013 at 03:35 PM

that does seem early

DavidE - 5-15-2013 at 03:36 PM

I do not like what I am seeing for sea surface temperatures this time round. That and a skewed accentuation of the Coriolis effect.

Translated: Higher sea temperatures, and more clockwise curling effect in hurricane tracks.

Now we're in a period of maximum solar flare activity.

Maybe Butte Montana wouldn't be a bad hideout until December :(

durrelllrobert - 5-15-2013 at 04:00 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by desertcpl
that does seem early




The eastern Pacific hurricane season begins on 15 May each year and according to National Hurricane Center (NHC) records, Aletta was the first storm to form before the official start of the season since 1996, when a tropical storm formed on 13 May.

Mexitron - 5-15-2013 at 04:00 PM

David--shades of El Nino stirring about?

durrelllrobert - 5-15-2013 at 04:14 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by DavidE
I do not like what I am seeing for sea surface temperatures this time round. That and a skewed accentuation of the Coriolis effect.

Translated: Higher sea temperatures, and more clockwise curling effect in hurricane tracks.

Now we're in a period of maximum solar flare activity.

Maybe Butte Montana wouldn't be a bad hideout until December :(


Since I grew up there I can guaranty that it is not a safe place to hide unless you really like cold weather. The last 3 years I lived there the first snow of the year was on Memorial day and the last was on July 4th. Spring, summer and fall were sandwiched between.

chuckie - 5-15-2013 at 04:21 PM

Damn good bars in Butte....Bob and Sandys being one..pool table leans to the right....

woody with a view - 5-15-2013 at 05:14 PM

bring on the season! it's been a crappy hurricane surf 1/2 decade. the tuna should be coming up soon also!

Osprey - 5-15-2013 at 05:18 PM

The eagle and bat rays woke me up with their acrobatic antics a month ago and the locals say "Here come the big wet early hurricanes".

I'm (almost) ready.

Udo - 5-16-2013 at 07:52 AM

Your earlier prognostication (about a month ago) was RIGHT ON (about the earlier hurricane season).
Helps to commune with nature as much as you do, George!

DavidE - 5-16-2013 at 10:17 AM

Dillon Montana, 3 July, 1961 Brother left motel window open, Woke up to several inches of snow on the floor. I hope the rays, the sea surface charts and DavidE are all wrong about this. The poor Mexicans do not need to be hammered any more than they have.

Bob H - 5-16-2013 at 10:21 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by woody with a view
bring on the season! it's been a crappy hurricane surf 1/2 decade. the tuna should be coming up soon also!


Ahh, warm water = more tuna !!

Osprey - 5-16-2013 at 10:38 AM

Mexicans being hammered? This is a DESERT that just got a trickle of rain last fall after 7 years without rain. The Mexicans and everyone else are begging for wet storms. No storms for us this year means no crops for us next year.

[Edited on 5-16-2013 by Osprey]

DavidE - 5-16-2013 at 01:42 PM

MOO-LAH-HAY

Rain is fine. Floods that wash away houses, roads, crops, and carry off top soil isn't.

"The poor Mexicans do not need to be hammered any more than they have."

The subject thread is about hurricanes, but I guess I erred in not providing proper caveats, footnotes, and references.

Osprey - 5-16-2013 at 02:22 PM

Maybe it's my fault. Much of Baja Sur gets little rain that isn't part of a storm system (tropical storms, depressions, hurricanes, etc). Thankfully we get brushed by a lot of systems that deliver rain but hardly any wind; not because they have no wind power but because they are broad, hold lots of water and the wild wind eye passes out to sea doing little wind damage.

DavidE - 5-16-2013 at 02:55 PM

Osprey, one of my "pets" for some reason is the Sierra de La Laguna. I wish there was a way to create a dam somewhere where it wouldn't do a lot of environmental damage and quell the insane amount of "lost" fresh water that roars into the sea causing little benefit and lots of human and environmental misery. Sometimes, mother nature does not know best. Just imagine what a properly built earthen dam would do for Mulege. Sure it would be dry some years but it many others allow for better survivability for critters and humans alike.

Last fall when it rained hard near Sta Rosalia the cattle acted like camels sucking up water. They munched on the green grass, and produced esterico, manure. A second rain caused the areas around the mud holes to go nuts.

I guess I've seen too much hardship down here. Where a storm rolls through, kills, chickens, and gardens, roofs leak and collapse, beds get soaked, and people are forced to live outside with the mosquitoes. Cars and pickups get mired up to the axles and genuine hardship results. In the old days, venado and cordoniz were at least available but not now. "Lo siento no hay trabajo ahora" is the result of the pass through of a storm.

I pray for lots of gentle rain. Stupid me, I'll pick out a cardón near the highway and after a good rain, sprinkle some 15-15-15 fertilizer around it, dump ten or fifteen gallons of service water afterwards and then for a few months watch the action! Maybe I have too soft a heart. Baja California can be utterly brutal to living things.

mulegemichael - 5-16-2013 at 03:16 PM

"the mexicans and everyone else" ARE NOT begging for wet storms down here where we live in mulege...let me make this clear; we ARE NOT begging for wet storms....you might want to check out all the abandoned houses where people down here in our little town USED to live....now they are all jammed together in a government built housing development south of town where many of them have no way to actually GET to town as their vehicle was destroyed in THE LAST wet storm in october..lots of mexican lives were devastated as we experienced the fourth chubasco in seven years...no more wet storms, por favor!

Osprey - 5-16-2013 at 03:27 PM

Okay, SOME MEXICANS ARE BEGGING FOR WET STORMS, not your Mulege Mexicans, those southern desert farmers who rely on the rain to keep the aquifers and the wells from drying up. Maybe you want to count the abandoned ranchos all up and down the peninsula while I go see the poor and impoverished in your area ---- comeon, go fight with somebody else.

mulegemichael - 5-16-2013 at 03:33 PM

jorge....i have no fight left...i'm not fighting...i'm telling you if i never see another wet storm, it'll be just fine.

DavidE - 5-29-2013 at 03:08 PM

A NWS CUT & PASTE

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

330
WTPZ42 KNHC 292044
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

BARBARA RECENTLY MADE LANDFALL IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIAPAS AS A
CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
THIS IS THE EASTERNMOST LANDFALL LOCATION FOR AN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC HURRICANE SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966. IT IS ALSO
THE SECOND-EARLIEST HURRICANE LANDFALL IN THE RELIABLE RECORD.

rts551 - 5-29-2013 at 03:36 PM

Hurricanes, Snow in the Northeast EU, floods in San Antonio during a severe drought, etc..... I guess there is no normal anymore. The fires in So Cal is normal.

DENNIS - 5-29-2013 at 03:39 PM

Mas info to go with David's:
=========================
Eastern Pacific - 40% chance

SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.cyclocane.com/hurricane-forecast/



.

[Edited on 5-29-2013 by DENNIS]

DENNIS - 5-29-2013 at 03:42 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by rts551
I guess there is no normal anymore.


Au contraire....everything that happens is normal. :biggrin:

rts551 - 5-29-2013 at 04:19 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by DENNIS
Quote:
Originally posted by rts551
I guess there is no normal anymore.


Au contraire....everything that happens is normal. :biggrin:


A new normal!

durrelllrobert - 5-29-2013 at 04:26 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by DENNIS
Quote:
Originally posted by rts551
I guess there is no normal anymore.


Au contraire....everything that happens is normal. :biggrin:


DavidE - 5-29-2013 at 04:36 PM

Man if had a place on the flood plain, I don't know mulegemichael. This early stuff is depressing as hell. I hope folks down there have their antenna up for news. I would be curious to ask the watermaster or the owner of the citrus orchard way out past icehouse road how the water table is this year...if it's real high, I just don't know...

mulegemichael - 5-29-2013 at 05:05 PM

hey david, we feel the same way...just now on our way back down to button up the house for the "season"...but i mean, it's MAY, fer gawds sake!...will just think positive thoughts and drink more, i suppose...will arrive in mulege on friday and reassess the situation...i wanna go dorado fishing so that's really our focus; getting our big boat in the water!!

DavidE - 5-29-2013 at 05:35 PM

Hijole I can no longer fish but I can sure FORK dorado every bit as well as ever. Wish I could buy some. Even cochis.