BajaNomad - What A Ride For The Peso

What A Ride For The Peso

Pages: 1 2 3

DavidE - 6-19-2013 at 11:28 AM

durrelllrobert - 6-19-2013 at 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DavidE

For 1 peso you can have wild ride on one of these :lol:

DavidE - 6-19-2013 at 12:00 PM

What A Rip Off!

"Where's The Stripes?"

micah202 - 6-19-2013 at 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DavidE

....looks like a typical day in currency spec,,no?

....but what about silver price history??
.... http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html

chuckie - 6-19-2013 at 01:05 PM

Thats how you make nothing look like something...Its the scale on the chart, actual fluctuation is almost nil.....There is even a book on stuff like that "How to lie with statistics"....Yawn.....

bkbend - 6-19-2013 at 02:05 PM

** brief hijack alert** I had that book as a textbook in college, ... in a statistics class back in the 70's. It does help when numbers start getting thrown around.

bajagrouper - 6-19-2013 at 02:20 PM

I thought I was looking at David"s EKG chart........

DavidE - 6-19-2013 at 02:22 PM

"Markets sold off aggressively on the news, with major averages dropping more than 1 percent. The five-year Treasury note hit its highest yield since August 2011 while the benchmark 10-year note breached a 2011 high".

The interbank rate is now at 13.25

Let's see: 13.25 versus 12.25 a month ago.

The 7.5% drop is valuation is not there.

If you had studied the mechanics of Latin American economies in college, you would have learned a stronger treasury yield exerts one hell of a pull on buying. Especially by Mexico. And Brasil. Of course statistics can be manipulated and skewed. Go tell that to Banco de Mexico and the Casas de Cambios.

Bajaboy - 6-19-2013 at 02:51 PM

love it...just about to transfer money to our builder today...thanks David...once again you made me feel pretty smart with my timing :spingrin:

Pescador - 6-20-2013 at 06:06 AM

I sort of wonder if David is a little pre-occupied with things financial. We get the gasoline price update, the CFE price update, the Peso update, and the prescription update. I guess we all obsess about things. I looked up Terrafin for Satellite sea temps, Bouyweather, read fish reports from 4 different sites, and hopefully I have a small chance of finding the fish this morning. I spend a part of one day a month at the bank, but 20-25 days fishing.

Bajaboy - 6-20-2013 at 06:31 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Pescador
I sort of wonder if David is a little pre-occupied with things financial. We get the gasoline price update, the CFE price update, the Peso update, and the prescription update. I guess we all obsess about things. I looked up Terrafin for Satellite sea temps, Bouyweather, read fish reports from 4 different sites, and hopefully I have a small chance of finding the fish this morning. I spend a part of one day a month at the bank, but 20-25 days fishing.

Please tell me warm water is pushing into Bahia Asuncion
:light:

DENNIS - 6-20-2013 at 07:58 AM

At this moment:

13.3525 to 1

Make that:

13.4452

it's bouncing around like a tennis ball.

.

[Edited on 6-20-2013 by DENNIS]

????????

durrelllrobert - 6-20-2013 at 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DavidE
"Markets sold off aggressively on the news, with major averages dropping more than 1 percent. The five-year Treasury note hit its highest yield since August 2011 while the benchmark 10-year note breached a 2011 high".

The interbank rate is now at 13.25

Let's see: 13.25 versus 12.25 a month ago.

The 7.5% drop is valuation is not there.

a 1 peso drop / 13.25 peso current value = 7.5% decrease in value

DavidE - 6-20-2013 at 08:55 AM

Mi sarcasm discupáme. The thing to watch for (no guarantee) is an appearance of a 2,000 peso note. Somebody in Banco de Mexico is very aware of the ongoing trade deficit and unlike El Pelón, the administration is listening to the central bank.

If you want a mini-lesson in just how inept politicians are regarding budget deficits, look at what happened in California. The same is happening in the USA but all the newly printed money has to be "paid for". The Fed is going to raise treasury yields because IMHO we are headed for some serious inflation. The Aussies are so paranoid about this they want to link the Australian $ to the Chinese Yuan Renminbi.

Sadly the old axiom When The US Economy Sneezes, Mexico Gets Pneumonia, is not a joke. Interesting times ahead.

willardguy - 6-20-2013 at 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DavidE
Mi sarcasm discupáme. The thing to watch for (no guarantee) is an appearance of a 2,000 peso note. Somebody in Banco de Mexico is very aware of the ongoing trade deficit and unlike El Pelón, the administration is listening to the central bank.

If you want a mini-lesson in just how inept politicians are regarding budget deficits, look at what happened in California. The same is happening in the USA but all the newly printed money has to be "paid for". The Fed is going to raise treasury yields because IMHO we are headed for some serious inflation. The Aussies are so paranoid about this they want to link the Australian $ to the Chinese Yuan Renminbi.

Sadly the old axiom When The US Economy Sneezes, Mexico Gets Pneumonia, is not a joke. Interesting times ahead.

so now not only are we on the lookout for mexican airborne rangers, we need to watch for the 2000 peso note! what are you puttin in them pickles out there? :lol:

DavidE - 6-20-2013 at 10:26 AM

Thanks for the chuckle.
It's summer...
Better to talk about the lack of hotels in Ojos Negros?

durrelllrobert - 6-20-2013 at 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DavidE
What A Rip Off!

"Where's The Stripes?"

Can't afford stripes since the peso has been devalued. 13.25/US$ today

DavidE - 6-20-2013 at 11:17 AM

Saw one in CantCun with a horn pasted on the center of its forehead. Fly-in tourists were flocking to get $5 pictures. I told the owner I hope the sucker ends up goring him.

durrelllrobert - 6-20-2013 at 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS
At this moment:

13.3525 to 1

Make that:

13.4452

it's bouncing around like a tennis ball.

.

[Edited on 6-20-2013 by DENNIS]

MY CFE electric rate just went up from 3.027 to 3.653 pesos per kWh (20% increase). Glad I'll be paying with pesos (8.8% devaluation).

DavidE - 6-20-2013 at 12:47 PM

Mañana may be Viernes Negro for El Dow Jones. Greece and Spain both are sucking the Eurozone flat and I think Germany isn't going to white hat ride to the rescue. Love to be able to see wire transfers to Texas banks right about now.

EDIT: Bernanke will be an idiot if tomorrow he does not say something like "Tentative easing of purchases are exactly that and can be modified to ease market instability"

[Edited on 6-20-2013 by DavidE]

tiotomasbcs - 6-20-2013 at 01:17 PM

Sounds like a good time for Expats to get some $Cash or buy building materials! Hurry BajaBoy before they raise prices. Costco in Cabo gave 13.15 to one. Give me another beer, bartender. :yes:

Tio

DavidE - 6-20-2013 at 01:34 PM

The roar you hear out your window is pesos headed north...

Variable Rate T Bills

DENNIS - 6-20-2013 at 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by tiotomasbcs
Sounds like a good time for Expats to get some $Cash or buy building materials! Hurry BajaBoy before they raise prices. Costco in Cabo gave 13.15 to one. Give me another beer, bartender. :yes:

Tio

Yep....everything imported will see a peso price increase.

DavidE - 6-20-2013 at 02:02 PM

Except perhaps for basic Chinese goods. Unemployed Chinese love to eat Politburo members with soy sauce.

DavidE - 6-21-2013 at 11:08 AM

From Today's Wall Street Journal front page

"Analysis: Markets Might Be Misreading Fed's Messages

In the two days since Bernanke said the central bank expects to curb its bond-buying program later this year, stocks tumbled and long-term interest rates rose, writes Jon Hilsenrath". 11:05 AM

Duhh. ya think?

tiotomasbcs - 6-21-2013 at 12:18 PM

Where's the exchange rate today? 13 something, verdad?! Anyone jumping out of buildings, DavidE? Tio

DENNIS - 6-21-2013 at 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by tiotomasbcs
Where's the exchange rate today? 13 something, verdad?!

At this moment: 13.3122 to 1

it usually settles down before going into the weekend, and the US market is just closing.

DavidE - 6-22-2013 at 10:28 AM

Banco de Mexico spent $600,000,000 dollar reserves trying to buy time on Friday. As Luis DuMont used to tell me, "It's to buy them enough time to cash out and send their money north".

It's all up to the Fed and the Dollar/Renminbi fracas. If the dollar weakens this resets the tumblers for the dollar peso relationship.

China is in trouble. They cannot retaliate without throwing hundreds of millions of workers out of work. The threat to the politburo is very real. China's two big markets are the US and Mexico (sharing common ports). Idiots who write about the "threat" of China "cashing in" on US bonds, bills, and other investments have not got a clue. It would lead to an all-out civil war in China.

DENNIS - 6-24-2013 at 09:49 AM

Here we go again. After sitting at 13.30 over the weekend, it's fallen ten cents since this AM:

At this moment.........13.4021 to 1

DavidE - 6-24-2013 at 10:52 AM

Nuther $600,000,000 dlls since 6AM.

I believe they will burn the furniture rather than let it soar to 14 to 1. This would give the PRI a Larry Holmes grade ear bite.

[Edited on 6-24-2013 by DavidE]

willardguy - 6-24-2013 at 10:56 AM

Larry Holmes? :?:

DENNIS - 6-24-2013 at 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by willardguy
Larry Holmes? :?:

Did he mean John Holmes of Deep Pockets fame?

DavidE - 6-24-2013 at 11:18 AM

Love to be a fly-on-the-wall in the Central Bank right about now.

Look for the overheated glow-in-the-dark telephone lines between Los Pinos and Banco de Mexico.

No joke. If the peso falls to 14.0 to 1, the PRI may as well kiss the next election goodbye.

willardguy - 6-24-2013 at 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS

Quote:

Originally posted by willardguy
Larry Holmes? :?:

Did he mean John Holmes of Deep Pockets fame?

in davids defense, he was preoccupied focusing on the daily meter reading spreadsheet entry! :lol:

DavidE - 6-24-2013 at 12:23 PM

118 kWh so far this bimestral with a lectura coming on the 8th of Julio.

Can't wait for those four dollar a gallon Magna prices!

Wanna know where your money goes, visit the CFE or PEMEX parking lot sometime in Mexico. No not THAT lot, the one with all the Mercedes, Lexus, and BMW's in it. They're going broke I tell 'ya. Too much subsidy - gotta find a way to raise another 100 billion pesos/yr. Paracaídas de oro aren't as cheap as they used to be.

I'm not complaining because of "me". It's the folks who are going to get hammered that gets my cabron. We sat, down here, and laughed our butt off when California "De-Regulated" electrical power. $5,000 megawatt hour. Keep laughing - you paid for it.

Bajaboy - 6-24-2013 at 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DavidE
118 kWh so far this bimestral with a lectura coming on the 8th of Julio.

Can't wait for those four dollar a gallon Magna prices!

Wanna know where your money goes, visit the CFE or PEMEX parking lot sometime in Mexico. No not THAT lot, the one with all the Mercedes, Lexus, and BMW's in it. They're going broke I tell 'ya. Too much subsidy - gotta find a way to raise another 100 billion pesos/yr. Paracaídas de oro aren't as cheap as they used to be.

I'm not complaining because of "me". It's the folks who are going to get hammered that gets my cabron. We sat, down here, and laughed our butt off when California "De-Regulated" electrical power. $5,000 megawatt hour. Keep laughing - you paid for it.

I'm not complaining because of "me" either but why do some people have water meters and others don't.... :?:

DavidE....where is the outrage?

DavidE - 6-24-2013 at 02:06 PM

"Outrage?"

"CFE?"

Don't You Mean...

"Outage"?

willardguy - 6-24-2013 at 02:11 PM

don't you mean Evander Holyfield? :lol:

msteve1014 - 6-24-2013 at 02:48 PM

I really don't care WHY you are complaining, this time. You are ALWAYS complaining. The exchange rate will not change because you do not like it. Find a problem you can change, and get on it, quietly.

willardguy - 6-24-2013 at 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by msteve1014
I really don't care WHY you are complaining, this time. You are ALWAYS complaining. The exchange rate will not change because you do not like it. Find a problem you can change, and get on it, quietly.

somebody get that man some pickling spices, quick! :lol:

msteve1014 - 6-24-2013 at 03:03 PM

I like Claussens, I don't have a lot of time to waste on things like that.

DavidE - 6-24-2013 at 03:56 PM

I don't like Oxnerd. Big Deal.

DENNIS - 6-26-2013 at 03:16 PM

The yoyo ride continues................

Closed today at:

13.1649 to 1

CortezBlue - 6-26-2013 at 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DavidE

[/quote

Looks like my last EKG

DavidE - 6-26-2013 at 04:03 PM

Rumor is they just shut down another hundreds of millions of dollars a year Do-It-Yourself peso dollar casa de cambio in Costa Rica. Great incentive. DHS and DEA get to keep all they find for their budgets.

chuckie - 6-26-2013 at 04:30 PM

Seems like a big rice bowl....The joy in pickles is as much in the making as in the eating...

DENNIS - 6-27-2013 at 08:22 AM

At this moment: 12.9988

DavidE - 6-27-2013 at 10:22 AM

Three hundred million dollars at a whack. They (the PRI) are praying 13.00 will become some kind of psychological barrier or hurdle. Just wait until the Greece-Spain-Portugal Euro fracas heats ups again...

DENNIS - 7-17-2013 at 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS

posted on 6-27-2013 at 07:22 AM

At this moment: 12.9988

12.5070........now.

DavidE - 7-17-2013 at 03:33 PM

Guillero Ortiz is revered as the Allan Greenspan of México. Like it or not his philosophy has worked. But a lot of pesos have departed to purchase US Treasury notes. Interest rates are set to rise. But the counterbalance is the fear of another election lost due to a weakening of the currency. Piedra/Lugar Duro time.

DENNIS - 7-31-2013 at 09:25 AM

At this moment:

12.8461

DavidE - 8-2-2013 at 11:12 AM

Friday August 02

Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

Another three hundred million dollars down the chute.

The PRI wants to start taxing food and medicines. And have people invest in Petroleos Mexicanos. Kinda like what Newt Gingrich wanted to do with the entire Social Security fund invest it all into the Stock Market before the great looting, oops I mean "correction".

monoloco - 8-2-2013 at 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DavidE
Friday August 02

Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

Another three hundred million dollars down the chute.

The PRI wants to start taxing food and medicines. And have people invest in Petroleos Mexicanos. Kinda like what Newt Gingrich wanted to do with the entire Social Security fund invest it all into the Stock Market before the great looting, oops I mean "correction".

Investing in Petroleos Mexicanos would be akin to investing in the Gambino crime syndicate.

DavidE - 8-2-2013 at 11:29 AM

The company is OK, it's the union and the Chuperos (gobernacion) that are garrapotas on the entire economy. Wait! I'm incorrect! I forgot to throw in Carlos Sleem.

DENNIS - 8-16-2013 at 10:20 AM

At this moment:

12.9637

MitchMan - 8-16-2013 at 10:51 AM

What the heck is going on?

chuckie - 8-16-2013 at 11:56 AM

And why would anyone care?

willardguy - 8-16-2013 at 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by chuckie
And why would anyone care?

then again....why would anyone care if you wondered why anyone cares ? :?:

wessongroup - 8-16-2013 at 12:22 PM

:lol:

DavidE - 8-16-2013 at 12:23 PM

Yeah! Snails, and gophers, and lizards don't care! Dang I should have used this as to why my economics class report was late...

chuckie - 8-16-2013 at 12:39 PM

Your just mad cuz I dont care.....

DavidE - 8-16-2013 at 01:11 PM

Mad? Me? You gotza rong person
Me? LMASOROTF

chuckie - 8-16-2013 at 01:29 PM

See, If I cared that you cared that I didnt care then Iwould have to be careful....IDGAFFWYT

DavidE - 8-16-2013 at 01:57 PM

.....and that's why you peso little attention to the subject line...

MitchMan - 8-16-2013 at 02:26 PM

Chuckie,
I care because I am a cheap SOB. I watch every penny. I love it. It's my hobby. I quantify everything. On my frequent trips to La Paz, I spend from $400 USD to $1200 USD not including airfare. By watching the exchange rate and utilizing an on hand bank of $20,000 MXN, I can usually save from $20 USD to $60 USD per trip. That's $160 to $480 USD per year. Couple that with using a B of A Atm card at Santander bank so that I do not have to pay any withdrawal fees and I get a really good exchange rate, the savings are even more by multiples.

You know, $20 USD can buy 3 big Sonora rib eye steaks at Walmart or a Sunday champagne brunch at Palermos followed by a c-cktail at Tailhunters.

Just figured out what "IDGAFFWYT" stands for...very cool. Still working on "LMASOROTF".

[Edited on 8-16-2013 by MitchMan]

chuckie - 8-16-2013 at 02:46 PM

I watch my money too,but cant get emotional about something I cant control..Last Thursday I bought 10,000 pesos (ATM) I just looked and have 7, 641 left....How did all the jiggery pokery in the peso market affect me? It seems not a dollars worth....ERGO: I dont care...

DENNIS - 8-16-2013 at 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by chuckie
Last Thursday I bought 10,000 pesos (ATM)

You must have had a pistol in your hand, Chuckie. I didn't know you could get that much.
Which ATM was it?

DavidE - 8-16-2013 at 03:00 PM

What did you buy them with Chuckie? 800 dollars? 900 dollars?

"I can't be overdrawn I still have checks"

chuckie - 8-16-2013 at 04:36 PM

Why is that any of your business? More obfuscation? You cant even buy tires, without whining about them.....As to which ATM? I have heard all the sniveling about ATMS I ever need to hear.....That also is non germain....Dennis?Maybe I made 10 withdrawals of a 1000 pesos each? But youll never know will ya....Smartburro David E? What was the effect of my transaction? Never mind, you prolly couldnt figure it out any way..I DID NOt buy calcium chloride to put on pickles.....does that help?...

Bob and Susan - 8-16-2013 at 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS

Quote:

Originally posted by chuckie
Last Thursday I bought 10,000 pesos (ATM)

You must have had a pistol in your hand, Chuckie. I didn't know you could get that much.
Which ATM was it?

dennis... bancomer allows 10k peso withdrawals now...
"try it you'll like it"

chuckie - 8-16-2013 at 05:02 PM

Nah....He'd rather pretend he knows what he is talking about.....

Baja Bernie - 8-16-2013 at 09:07 PM

My idea of a "ride for a peso" is getting on a bus in Baja back in the 1960's........now, that was a ride for the peso! beat any amusement park I had ever been to!

DENNIS - 8-16-2013 at 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bob and Susan
dennis... bancomer allows 10k peso withdrawals now...
"try it you'll like it"

That would make their 80 Peso fee acceptable, I suppose.
Thanks, Bob.

Bajaboy - 8-16-2013 at 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by MitchMan
Chuckie,
I care because I am a cheap SOB. I watch every penny. I love it. It's my hobby. I quantify everything. On my frequent trips to La Paz, I spend from $400 USD to $1200 USD not including airfare. By watching the exchange rate and utilizing an on hand bank of $20,000 MXN, I can usually save from $20 USD to $60 USD per trip. That's $160 to $480 USD per year. Couple that with using a B of A Atm card at Santander bank so that I do not have to pay any withdrawal fees and I get a really good exchange rate, the savings are even more by multiples.

You know, $20 USD can buy 3 big Sonora rib eye steaks at Walmart or a Sunday champagne brunch at Palermos followed by a c-cktail at Tailhunters.

Just figured out what "IDGAFFWYT" stands for...very cool. Still working on "LMASOROTF".

[Edited on 8-16-2013 by MitchMan]

From my experience from SafeSend and wire transfers....BofA makes their money on the exchange spread. Their exchange rates are much worse than my credit union....no fees but a lower exchange rate...so for me...it all depends on how much money I withdraw...in reality, though,....I just take out the money....why are we b-tching about a few dollars here or there.... :biggrin:

chuckie - 8-16-2013 at 11:34 PM

Dennis just doesnt get it.....he keeps trying to get people to focus on chump change to divert attention from the fact that all of this foolery on the peso fluctuation that no one can do anything about, makes little or no difference in the day to day course of business. ATM fees? 80 peso charge? So what? To repeat myself yet again..I dont care...

DENNIS - 8-17-2013 at 06:57 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by chuckie
Dennis just doesnt get it.....he keeps trying to get people to focus on........

Nonsense. I don't care what people focus on.

DavidE - 8-17-2013 at 09:13 AM

Chuckie...

If YOU DON'T CARE...

Why are you WASTING TIME on this thread? Let's say a hammock salesman hits me up on the beach. I just politely say "Gracias,no" walk away and continue on. I won't stand there and give him a dissertation as to why I DON'T CARE to buy one.

willardguy - 8-17-2013 at 10:08 AM

I guess you can "not care" but still have to have the last word? :lol:

MitchMan - 8-17-2013 at 10:20 AM

I care about chump change a lot. But, I also appreciate what Chuckie has to say and how he stands up for his point of view by providing a rationale. Also, his points of view are not rare, but are shared by many.

chuckie - 8-17-2013 at 10:46 AM

OK!

DENNIS - 8-17-2013 at 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by MitchMan
shared by many.

Could we have their name/s, please? :lol:

chuckie - 8-17-2013 at 12:21 PM

Dennis, DavidE, Kilroy... True believers...

DavidE - 8-17-2013 at 01:30 PM

chuckie - 8-17-2013 at 03:17 PM

OK

DENNIS - 8-17-2013 at 04:52 PM

OK

chuckie - 8-17-2013 at 06:09 PM

okx2

LancairDriver - 8-17-2013 at 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by chuckie
I watch my money too,but cant get emotional about something I cant control..Last Thursday I bought 10,000 pesos (ATM) I just looked and have 7, 641 left....How did all the jiggery pokery in the peso market affect me? It seems not a dollars worth....ERGO: I dont care...

Wow! All of this high dollar currency trading may attract the attention of the IRS. I guess a few dollars rubbing off of nothing equals nothing. Maybe Mulege will be the next wall street. So right, who cares? :lol:

DENNIS - 8-19-2013 at 07:31 PM

At this moment:

13.0975

DENNIS - 8-21-2013 at 02:48 PM

At this moment:

13.2675

DavidE - 8-21-2013 at 04:48 PM

It is truly interesting to note that currencies like the Guatemalan Quetzal are not affected by such things as unrest in the middle east, US Reserve bank interest policy or the Chinese Renminbi Yuan. Near civil war in Egypt? The Brotherhood may be burning but the Egyptian Pound is as stable as the Pyramids of Giza.

Greece needs Euro Lube but the Mexican Peso is a flaky as the promise of mañana.

Remember the hundred billion dollar peso reserve fund is administered by vetted Chanecos. Raul Salinas de Gotari came out of the last meltdown just fine. What's your excuse? (Americans living in Mexico December 22, 1994)

chuckie - 8-21-2013 at 04:53 PM

All computer generated hyperbole.....

DENNIS would like to buy you dinner here

durrelllrobert - 8-23-2013 at 09:57 AM

DENNIS - 8-23-2013 at 09:59 AM

Ahhhhsooooo....

The renegade Peso as we twiddle our chopsticks:

12.9710

chuckie - 8-23-2013 at 10:01 AM

LOVE IT :biggrin:

And lets not forget the Drachma, holding its own against the Kroner...(on Tuesdays)

Ooooooooo Multi-Syllables! Impressive!

DavidE - 8-23-2013 at 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by chuckie
All computer generated hyperbole.....

Like bank statements, compound interest, adjustable rate mortgages. Com-pooter-generated Hippo-Bibber-Lay

MitchMan - 8-23-2013 at 10:31 AM

Currency exchange rates vary due to many variables, most are actually logical determinants and parameters (AKA, fundamentals), others are arbitrary. The fact that currencies are international commodities makes it really hard to get a handle on short term trending. It's the arbitrary variables that really screw up the works such as currency brokers (and by extension, currency markets) dumping or buying to clear the internal trades based on what they (the brokers) can do to maximize their own commissions. Also, institutional large block trading where they can influence the market (both short term and longer tem) based on their own holdings and internal analyses.

The giant problem for you and me or any small trader is the ability to gather ALL the info at any one moment in time that actually produces a directional change in a given exchange rate. Impossible, actually. As far as I am concerned, it's a massive crap shoot.

Currencies are not the only commodity where the above is true (IMHO). Look at the price of gasoline in Southern California. I have rarely if ever seen anything like the current circumstance where the going price of Cheveron 87 octane dropped to $3.89/gal USD (4 days ago) and the price of crude hiking up to $106 USD per barrel at the same time. I did a study last year on the price of gasoline and barrels of oil and there are so many real variables that go into the pricing, it would make your head spin. Many of the real and logical factors are absolutely unknown by 99.999% of people on the street.

Things are complicated in reality...makes it very easy for powerful interests (with access to great financial resources, experienced experts, and "real and pertinent info") to manipulate and/or exploit the situation. It's the American way...and...it's all legal.

Lastly, but certainly not least, is the fact that market function gets screwed up by differences in important pertinent knowledge between market participants. It's called "asymmetry of knowledge" in the market place and when that happens, markets will not work the way that classic economic theory has defined them to work.

[Edited on 8-23-2013 by MitchMan]

DavidE - 8-23-2013 at 10:39 AM

My interest is not about "how many pesos i can get for a dollar" but about the background volatility (or not) of a country's currency. Why exactly is Mexico's currency so volatile as compared to 95% of the world's other currencies. It is fascinating to speculate as to the reasons why.

Speculation is skewing economics to the point where sooner or later it is going to cause a massive "correction" which is going to hurt a lot of innocent people. Darwinism economics is not my forté.

chuckie - 8-24-2013 at 03:37 PM

If all the economists in the world were laid head to toe, they would never reach a conclusion....

DavidE - 8-24-2013 at 03:51 PM

Ooooooo I LIKE that one.

wessongroup - 8-24-2013 at 04:17 PM

"they would never reach a conclusion...." :lol:

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