DavidE - 8-31-2013 at 03:10 PM
surprisingly...the tropical cyclone has rapidly intensified this
afternoon and is now Tropical Storm Kiko. A ragged eye has
intermittently appeared in the center of a small CDO in the visible
imagery...while microwave imagery from a 1714z metop-a AMSU pass
also showed a banding eye developing. However...the subjective
Dvorak classifications at 1800z came in quite low with intensity
estimates of near 35 kt. Even the ADT only suggested about 45
kt...as the eye is not yet distinct in the infrared imagery. Based
upon the rapid recent development observed in the imagery...the
intensity is assessed at 50 kt with a larger than usual amount of
uncertainty.
The ragged eye allows for a rather confident assessment of the
motion of the storm at 335/4. The cyclone should continue to move
at this slow forward speed for the next day and a half or
so...primarily due to steering provided by a mid-level ridge
northeast of the cyclone. As the cyclone winds down in about two
days...it may nearly stall as it becomes embedded within very light
low-level flow. The track forecast is slightly to the right of the
previous advisory due to a shift in the tvce multi-model consensus.
The unexpected rapid intensification may be ascribed to the low
vertical wind shear and warm and moist conditions that the cyclone
is currently embedded in. However...none of our statistical nor
dynamical models had a clue that the system would intensify as much
as it did. Given the current trends...its intensity is predicted
to peak as a high end tropical storm...but even a category 1
hurricane is not unrealistic. Cooler SSTs and a more stable
atmosphere lie along the projected path of the system starting in
about a day and a half...and weakening should commence then. The
intensity forecast is well Above All guidance due to the much
stronger initial conditions. The cyclone is likely to become a
remnant low in about three days and dissipate in about four
days...while remaining nearly stationary west of Baja California.
Forecast positions and Max winds
init 31/2100z 19.3n 116.2w 50 kt 60 mph
12h 01/0600z 20.1n 116.4w 60 kt 70 mph
24h 01/1800z 21.0n 116.5w 60 kt 70 mph
36h 02/0600z 21.7n 116.5w 50 kt 60 mph
48h 02/1800z 22.1n 116.7w 40 kt 45 mph