BajaNomad

Tropical Storm Lorena; LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER STORM IS FORMING DOWN SOUTH

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DENNIS - 9-2-2013 at 01:45 PM

"A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH."

http://www.cyclocane.com/hurricane-forecast/




.

[Edited on 9-2-2013 by DENNIS]

[Edited on 9-5-2013 by BajaNomad]

rts551 - 9-2-2013 at 02:28 PM

Dennis. enough of that stuff.

woody with a view - 9-2-2013 at 02:28 PM

it'll take 4-5 more days to get mean.

DENNIS - 9-2-2013 at 02:35 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by rts551
Dennis. enough of that stuff.



Can't help it, Ralph. I'm depressed. Been sitting in pea soup fog all day with outside humidity at 97%. :fire:

rts551 - 9-2-2013 at 02:37 PM

Are you our next Amateur Junior Associate Part Time Meteorologist...

The last one blew it on Ivo.

IE depression. Maybe you can borrow some of his meds.
:lol:

[Edited on 9-2-2013 by rts551]

Barry A. - 9-2-2013 at 03:07 PM

I like the early reports, and updates. Keep them coming. Better fore-warned than sitting in la-la land in ignorance, and then complaining that "I didn't have a clue". :lol: :light: :lol:

Barry

DENNIS - 9-2-2013 at 03:12 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by rts551
Maybe you can borrow some of his meds.
:lol:




Nah........I have plenty of my own. You don't think I got this way from Pacifico, do ya? :saint:

rts551 - 9-2-2013 at 03:13 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by DENNIS
Quote:
Originally posted by rts551
Maybe you can borrow some of his meds.
:lol:




Nah........I have plenty of my own. You don't think I got this way from Pacifico, do ya? :saint:


I hit the LIKE button. but it did not work,

chuckie - 9-2-2013 at 03:19 PM

Dennis, you know you cant mention that stuff on here..gets people upset, and now its YOUR fault if the thing we cant mention happens...Baaaad Dennis!

Mexitron - 9-2-2013 at 07:08 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by DENNIS
Quote:
Originally posted by rts551
Dennis. enough of that stuff.



Can't help it, Ralph. I'm depressed. Been sitting in pea soup fog all day with outside humidity at 97%. :fire:


Wish we even had the pea soup fog...been brutal up here in SoCal, don't remember such an extended period of tropicalness. And if that next storm turns into a tropical storm it may pump more of the same north.....

DENNIS - 9-2-2013 at 07:18 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by chuckie
...Baaaad



ChuckieChuckieChuckie....I thought the authorities told you to get rid of those sheep. :lol:

mulegemichael - 9-2-2013 at 08:23 PM

i think you may have zoomed in on this one, denny....looks like it's packing a lotta zoomba, this one...and i've seen a few...hope i'm wrong...please...please..trying to head off to montana for a couple of weeks with fly rod in hand...tomorrow...early....i sure hope that happens...

chuckie - 9-2-2013 at 08:27 PM

Fish the Madison, above Ennis...you wont even notice if what Baaad Dennis said is true......

mulegemichael - 9-3-2013 at 05:43 AM

gotta house on the world famous rock creek for a few weeks...also gonna float the bitterroot and blackfoot a few days...it's an annual trip for roz and i and is gonna be nice getting away from folks for awhile....keep an eye on that storm for us folks!!

Skeet/Loreto - 9-3-2013 at 06:15 AM

Don't forget the Upper Big Hole out of Wisdom Montana. It is great fishing at times!!

I fished the Madison and Jefferson and Gallatin many times. Some of the best Brown Trout Fishing in the Country. Also Ten <ile Creek is great for small Trout and good eating.

DavidE - 9-3-2013 at 09:46 AM

rts551,

Saying I "blew it" on IVO is cheap blah-blah. Now write down your proof. From you i hear silence. People wearing dunce caps are silent.

chuckie - 9-3-2013 at 10:56 AM

Go back on your meds....Nobody needs to prove anything...least ofall to you.....

chuckie - 9-3-2013 at 10:58 AM

Lots of small streams no one talks about...One of my favorites is Little Sheep Cr....We discovered it on an elk hunt and spent almost as much time fishing as hunting...

DavidE - 9-3-2013 at 11:25 AM

Chuckie, I think PROZAC is in your future. I lived on the Madison every summer from 1956 to 1964. Fished from where quake lake is now all the way to the Bear Traps. Including Quaking Aspen Creek, past Cameron. But of course you are the expert. Check into the name ARMITAGE the next time you are in Ennis. Or Chuck Armitage you pass the Blue Moon Saloon in Cameron. My uncles owned around 4,000 acres bordering the Madison.

I love pseudo experts. You like dealing in criticism well here's a BUNCH with some facts in it.

rts551 - 9-3-2013 at 12:25 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by DavidE
rts551,

Saying I "blew it" on IVO is cheap blah-blah. Now write down your proof. From you i hear silence. People wearing dunce caps are silent.


Don't worry, Be happy, David. Silence is golden. You should practice it some time.

msteve1014 - 9-3-2013 at 12:52 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by chuckie
Lots of small streams no one talks about...One of my favorites is Little Sheep Cr....We discovered it on an elk hunt and spent almost as much time fishing as hunting...


Lots of small steams no one should talk about. If you saw it on the internet, you can do better..... If you look.:o

chuckie - 9-3-2013 at 01:03 PM

Yes indeed.....

DavidE - 9-3-2013 at 03:02 PM

Give forth some PLATINUM RTS 551 Lots of it would be great. Unlimited would be fantastic.

chuckie - 9-3-2013 at 04:01 PM

Is there someplace we can all buy a Gibberish translator to understand your posts? Ebay.Craigs list?

monoloco - 9-3-2013 at 04:12 PM

What exactly does all this blather about fishing in Montana have to do with the storm down south? Geez, ya all should start a new thread and call it: Fishing In Montana.

Paula - 9-3-2013 at 04:43 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by monoloco
What exactly does all this blather about fishing in Montana have to do with the storm down south? Geez, ya all should start a new thread and call it: Fishing In Montana.



I could think of some other names for it.

chuckie - 9-3-2013 at 04:45 PM

You all are right..I apologize for my par in the hijacking...sorry

DavidE - 9-3-2013 at 04:49 PM

Dear chuckie:

Remember these 2 letters of the alphabet, the first is the 9th the second the 17th. You'll find all your answers there...

I

Q

DianaT - 9-3-2013 at 04:52 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by chuckie
You all are right..I apologize for my par in the hijacking...sorry


Deleted post ---- once threads start to morph in a different direction, they can seldom be brought back to center. It just happens that way for no particular reason.

Computer models on this storm all are headed west which may be why people strayed.

Sorry some were offended.

DENNIS - 9-3-2013 at 05:15 PM

Looks like this now:

http://www.cyclocane.com/hurricane-forecast/

chuckie - 9-3-2013 at 05:21 PM

I Q is where u are on the MINUS scale ,DE.....

DavidE - 9-3-2013 at 05:38 PM

OH YEAH?

My dad's bigger than your dad!

Mulegena - 9-3-2013 at 06:37 PM

Well, some folks' hurricanes blow harder than others'.

We're prepared for whatever comes, weather-wise.
Now are we back on-thread?
btw, I enjoyed the hijack. Pretty photos.

woody with a view - 9-3-2013 at 06:46 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by msteve1014
Quote:
Originally posted by chuckie
Lots of small streams no one talks about...One of my favorites is Little Sheep Cr....We discovered it on an elk hunt and spent almost as much time fishing as hunting...


Lots of small steams no one should talk about. If you saw it on the internet, you can do better..... If you look.:o


and guys on here get their panties in a wad when we try to hush talk of "secret spots!!!" i don't get it?!?!?!?!:lol:

Udo - 9-3-2013 at 06:47 PM

What pretty photos??

mulegemichael - 9-3-2013 at 07:05 PM

we, as most mulegenas, hate storms....more than most, methinks.....so, we deflect such storms with blather and garbage...which equals flyfishing in montana...which we are now about to do...hence the meandering dialogue that non of us can defend except to state that "yes", we love our life down in mulege...but, "yes", it's now time to hide for a couple weeks as our home is vacated and all is on high ground....what else can we do???????....

woody with a view - 9-3-2013 at 07:17 PM

looks like a non event for the next week.

mulegemichael - 9-3-2013 at 07:31 PM

hope so...yes, we do.

Talkin' Mulege here

Mulegena - 9-3-2013 at 09:25 PM

Whoa! We went from a night of still-hellahot-humidity to BAM! Wind howling in the palmtrees, just like "that"!

Gathered stuff up outside that'll blow away and the cat ran in with raindrops in his fur!

I'm sure its just a couple of errant clouds that have drifted north from the area of concern to the south, but boy is it ever dramatic! Made the lights blink and the tv go wonky.

National Hurricane Center update not for another 45 minutes.

No matter, we're ready. Have fun up in the green land with fresh air and killer mosquitos, Friends.

woody with a view - 9-4-2013 at 06:32 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by woody with a view
looks like a non event for the next week.


funny how much difference 12 hours makes. nothing last night....
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height

btw, what's that dropping bring out of the gulf of alaska? bring on fall!

monoloco - 9-4-2013 at 06:46 AM

Here's the latest:http://www.eebmike.com/
It looks like we could get smacked again.

Bill Collector - 9-4-2013 at 07:08 AM

Winds and rain started around 2 am. My neighbors 26' boat came ashore, winds were really strong.
Looks like there's more rain coming

DENNIS - 9-4-2013 at 07:53 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Bill Collector
Winds and rain started around 2 am. My neighbors 26' boat came ashore, winds were really strong.
Looks like there's more rain coming



Probably so:

http://www.cyclocane.com/hurricane-forecast/

Boots on the ground

bajajudy - 9-4-2013 at 08:14 AM

I think that Tom at BajaInsider does a terrific job of forecasting and warning

check it out
be sure to check out all the tabs

http://www.bajainsider.com/weather/baja-weather108d.htm#.Uid...



[Edited on 9-4-2013 by bajajudy]

mulegemichael - 9-4-2013 at 07:40 PM

yeah....yeah...this just isn't making feel too comfy....it's not even formed and it looks formed...or big...or imposing..or whatever term you want to use to descibe looming...or big..or imposing..oh...sorry..we hate storms here.

monoloco - 9-4-2013 at 10:59 PM

Batten down the hatches, looks like we could get spanked by Friday:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS SLOWLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE
LOW MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND
INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY.

chuckie - 9-5-2013 at 02:49 AM

Went red..........

Bob and Susan - 9-5-2013 at 04:59 AM

we just dried up too...

it's going to be a really green desert for a few months

newstorm.jpg - 17kB

shari - 9-5-2013 at 07:21 AM

....looks like a bit of rain on the inside which would be awful for Loreto area



[Edited on 9-5-2013 by shari]

Hook - 9-5-2013 at 07:33 AM

This doesnt look like it will get very organized to me. It will be lucky to reach TS status. But that doesnt mean it wont dump a bunch of rain...........somewhere.

Probably not Montana, though.:lol:

Ah, the first week in September. Seems like most of the bad storms affecting Baja and Sonora come this week.

[Edited on 9-5-2013 by Hook]

DENNIS - 9-5-2013 at 07:37 AM

I wouldn't be taking this lightly quite yet:

http://www.cyclocane.com/hurricane-forecast/

Paula - 9-5-2013 at 07:56 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Hook
This doesnt look like it will get very organized to me. It will be lucky to reach TS status. But that doesnt mean it wont dump a bunch of rain...........somewhere.

Probably not Montana, though.:lol:

Ah, the first week in September. Seems like most of the bad storms affecting Baja and Sonora come this week.

[Edited on 9-5-2013 by Hook]



Funny you should mention rain in Montana, as we are having some incredible thunder and lightning and pouring rain right now in Kalispell.

The storm that is forming now looks pretty serious. Lets hope it turns west and out to sea, because we sure don't need so much rain in Baja right now.

mulegemichael - 9-5-2013 at 10:38 AM

we're south and east of missoula right now and it thundered and lightninged and rained last nite...HOWEVER hooked probably 15 cutts in a 100 yd stretch of rock creek his morning..so screw the rain.

Lorena-Tropical Storm Watch issued for BCS!

bajajudy - 9-5-2013 at 12:36 PM

A Tropical Storm Watch has been posted for Baja California Sur from Agua Blanca on the Pacific side to Buenavista on the Sea of Cortez. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible, generally in the next 48hrs.

The system in question is Tropical Depression 12E
, which is expected to become Tropical Storm Lorena later today. At 12PM the system is about 355 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas and is forecast to move to the northwest over the next 72hrs. Then Tropical Storm Lorena will pass just to the southweast of the tip of the Baja peninsula through the weekend and into the first of the week.

Tropical Depression 12E, is not expected at this time to develop into a hurricane, but since this is the peak of the Baja Hurricane Season we suggest you keep a close eye on our weather pages as this system develops. At this time the forecasts indicate that just the tip of the peninsula will see any significant effects from the passing of then Tropical Storm Lorena, but fall storms can have a tenancy to curve to the northeast when nearing Baja.

Copied and pasted from an email notification from BajaInsider



[Edited on 9-5-2013 by bajajudy]

Mulegena - 9-5-2013 at 01:07 PM

Tropical Storm Watch issued for the southern most portions of Baja California Sur.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been posted for Baja California Sur from Agua Blanca on the Pacific side to Buenavista on the Sea of Cortez. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible, generally in the next 48hrs.

Bill Collector - 9-5-2013 at 02:12 PM

Thanks for posting that- we are in Buena Vista

Marinero - 9-5-2013 at 02:24 PM

I guess that means Los Barriles is in the clear?

BajaNomad - 9-5-2013 at 02:46 PM

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...LORENA WILL BE NEARING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/052045....

Bill Collector - 9-5-2013 at 02:57 PM

Buena Vista/Los Barriles. Don't think we are in the clear. Have had thunder for about a 1/2 hr, getting darker towards the South heading our way

bajalinda - 9-5-2013 at 03:21 PM

Totally agree with you about BajaInsider - here's another cut and paste from about an hour ago from that website.


Thursday, September 5, 2013 3:35 PM MDTTropical Storm Lorena has evolved from Tropical Depression 12E and the path now indicates a Baja California Sur landfall late Friday or early Saturday near Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Lorena is currently about 335 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas.
Tropical Storm Lorena is located near 19.2N 106.6W and is moving 325° at 10kts. Central barometric pressure is estimate at 1003Mb and winds are 35kts with gusts to 45kts, making Lorena just barely a tropical storm. Tropical storm force winds extend out 60 miles, only in the northeast quadrant. This remains a small disorganized system, but there is still plenty of warm, open water between Baja and Lorena.
Forecasts call for Lorena to continue to strengthen slightly through late Friday and begin to diminish over the cooler waters of the Pacific beginning Saturday. This is just about the point in time forecasters believe Lorena will make landfall somewhere on the tip of the peninsula.
Tropical Storm watches currently in effect for the southern most portions of the peninsula may be converted to warnings later this evening and the watch area is likely to be expanded.
Should the forecasts hold, much of the southern portion of Baja California Sur could see close to tropical storm force conditions between late Friday and into Sunday.
Folks within the current watch areas should begin preparations for tropical storm force condition during daylight hours today, as the weather may deteriorate rapidly tomorrow morning.
As can be seen in the flared cloud tops on the Visible Light Satellite image right, upper wind currents are still inhibiting the development of Lorena. The system will continue to track over waters capable of supporting further development through late Friday. Disturbed upper level flows around the Baja peninsula will suppress development as the storm nears the peninsula late Friday.
Should either or both of these deterrents abate before the storm reaches Baja additional development could occur. Systems like this year's Tropical Storm Juliette or 1989's Category 3 Kiko intensified very quickly over the same waters in less than 36hrs. Those with interests in the path of the storm should follow its development closely.
For visitors to the region and their friends back home, this is no reason for panic. Much of Baja California Sur's annual rainfall comes from our tropical systems. This is forecast to make landfall as a tropical storm. Our local systems and facilities are designed to handle much more, although not always gracefully.
Find a safe and comfortable place to witness one of our summer wonders. If you refrain from doing something stupid it can be an impressive weather experience. Life in Baja Sur usually returns to near normal within a day or so of a tropical storm.
The ports of Los Cabo and La Paz are likely to close in advance of the system for safety reasons, which will affect tours and fishing trips – it is not the tour operator's fault.
This is the height of the Baja Hurricane Season. Those with interests in the southern portions of Baja California Sur should follow the development of this system closely.
The next update to this page will be posted following the 06PM release from the National Hurricane Center

BajaNomad - 9-5-2013 at 03:31 PM

Computer projections of storm track...

lorena-2pmThu.jpg - 49kB

Mulegena - 9-5-2013 at 04:03 PM

... and here we go...again!



Edited to ask Doug where he found the great color computer graphic.

[Edited on 9-5-2013 by Mulegena]

monoloco - 9-5-2013 at 04:38 PM

It looks like 3 of those tracks converge right over my house. It could get interesting this weekend.

bajajudy - 9-5-2013 at 05:05 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Mulegena
... and here we go...again!



Edited to ask Doug where he found the great color computer graphic.

[Edited on 9-5-2013 by Mulegena]


It looks like it may be from Intellicast

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=24.79&a...

BajaNomad - 9-5-2013 at 05:12 PM

closer look

lorena-002.jpg - 50kB

BajaNomad - 9-5-2013 at 05:14 PM

..and even closer still...

lorena-003.jpg - 50kB

Sweetwater - 9-5-2013 at 05:18 PM

Folks,

Stay high, dry and safe....it will be a very plush desert when this season is over...


rogbag - 9-5-2013 at 05:45 PM

Looks like we might hold off on our return to Los Barriles until next week - we were going to head south from Fresno Friday AM & get into LB Sunday.
I came up last Friday - Saturday and there was a lot of work going on in the washes around Mulege & Loreto - hope they don't get all of their work undone. Really amazing the amount of rock that moves down the arroyos.

vandenberg - 9-5-2013 at 06:32 PM

Looks like Loreto is in for another gully washer.

ncampion - 9-5-2013 at 06:58 PM

Man, I just had our road fixed from the last storm. This is certainly the year of the TS for the Loreto area!!

Bill Collector - 9-5-2013 at 08:08 PM

THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY 36
HOURS...LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE TVCE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN AN ATTEMPT TO DISCOUNT THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HWRF...WHICH MAINTAINS A DEEP VORTEX THAT MOVES UP THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.

BajaNomad - 9-5-2013 at 09:18 PM

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF LORENA HAS RE-FORMED
FARTHER NORTH. AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6
WEST. LORENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LORENA WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AND THEN
BE NEAR OR OVER LAND BY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
WHEN LORENA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

lorena-004.jpg - 50kB

woody with a view - 9-5-2013 at 09:25 PM

WOW! batten down the hatches folks!

Katiejay99 - 9-5-2013 at 09:41 PM

Battening down all hatches tomorrow!!

mulegemichael - 9-5-2013 at 09:46 PM

i am so stinking tired of "battening"!!!....how much can a human "batten" without goin friggin nuts???

TROPICAL STORM LORENA

BAJA.DESERT.RAT - 9-5-2013 at 10:27 PM

if you haven't already, please go to eebmike.com or your favorite weather website as it looks like lorena is going to roll over cabo, fortunately, as a tropical storm.

good luck to everybody...please be safe.

BIEN SALUD, DA RAT

BajaNomad - 9-6-2013 at 12:13 AM

AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A SLOWER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF LORENA WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AND THEN BE NEAR OR OVER LAND BY
SATURDAY.

lorena-005.jpg - 46kB

BajaNomad - 9-6-2013 at 06:27 AM

latest

lorena-006.jpg - 50kB

TS LORENA

Bill Collector - 9-6-2013 at 06:32 AM

Lorena arrived around 3 am, winds, rain. It hasn't let up since it started, it's now 7:30, the arroyos are running. Lets hope she doesn't linger around here all day. Heavy rain at the moment..

bajajudy - 9-6-2013 at 06:37 AM

Dark and sprinkles here.
Looks like it could pour any moment.

shari - 9-6-2013 at 06:39 AM

thank you for the report, looks like alot more rain still to come according to the satellite images...be careful all.....we look forward to more onsite reporting over the next few days.

KaceyJ - 9-6-2013 at 07:01 AM

About 6:30 pst

Bill Collector - 9-6-2013 at 07:01 AM

Judy it's odd how so many times it misses San Jose and nails Buena Vista/Los barriles.
Wind isn't as strong, plenty of rain.

bajajudy - 9-6-2013 at 07:17 AM

Yeah, we got no wind and still sprinkling
Also, still very dark

cabobaja - 9-6-2013 at 07:30 AM

Looks like we are going to get hit again here in Todos Santos. Right now
only clouds. But, looks as though we could suffer a direct hit. Damn, I
had the palapa repaired yesterday from Juliette. Everyone stay safe!!

shari - 9-6-2013 at 07:46 AM

I just read a report on the Baja news that said the storm Lorena was moving at 9 km an hour but just cranked up to 22 km per hour so she's coming on faster than expected with gusts up to 85 km and rain...dang.
http://colectivopericu.net/2013/09/06/hoy-a-la-una-de-la-tar...

Bill Collector - 9-6-2013 at 07:50 AM

Thanks Shari for the update

pauldavidmena - 9-6-2013 at 08:37 AM

Shari - hopefully Lorena's sooner-than-expected arrival will mean a quick exit. Thank you for the updates, but do stay safe!

monoloco - 9-6-2013 at 08:42 AM

I just read that we could get 3-6" of rain with some areas receiving up to 10". This could be a gully washer, guess it's time to take the laundry off the line.:lol:

bajajudy - 9-6-2013 at 08:52 AM

Just started coming down here. Occasional gusts of 10 mph.
REALLY dark now....
We are headed into town for supplies....more later.....I hope!

Hook - 9-6-2013 at 09:05 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by monoloco
I just read that we could get 3-6" of rain with some areas receiving up to 10". This could be a gully washer, guess it's time to take the laundry off the line.:lol:


It would be interesting to have some of you with rain gauges to see how accurate this prediction becomes. It's really only about 24-36 hours from happening.

Gaucho - 9-6-2013 at 09:18 AM

How's it looking Judy?
Quote:
Originally posted by bajajudy
Quote:
Originally posted by Mulegena
... and here we go...again!



Edited to ask Doug where he found the great color computer graphic.

[Edited on 9-5-2013 by Mulegena]


It looks like it may be from Intellicast

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=24.79&a...

monoloco - 9-6-2013 at 09:31 AM

We have a weather station here, you can check current conditions or look at the log on Weather Underground. If you type in Todos Santos, you'll see Pescadero Heights, that's our station.
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?...

mtnpop - 9-6-2013 at 09:39 AM

Mike,
I seem to remember all my battens floated down to your casa last Oct 16. Go ahead and keep em,, looks like they would just come your way again... Everything we saved we brought back to the June wildfires in Colorado...
Quote:
Originally posted by mulegemichael
i am so stinking tired of "battening"!!!....how much can a human "batten" without goin friggin nuts???

BajaLuna - 9-6-2013 at 09:53 AM

Whewww lots of wicked weather going on. Stay safe, everyone!

Hope it clears up before we head down this coming week!

mtnpop - 9-6-2013 at 10:01 AM

Any news of how far north its raining at this time ????
Looks like it may go all the way to Az....

CUT N PASTE DISCUSSION

DavidE - 9-6-2013 at 11:11 AM

Last Updated: Friday, September 06, 2013, 9:00:00 AM (Mountain Standard Time (Mexico)) Wind: 40 MPH Location: 22.3N 109.4W Movement: NW Pressure: 1005 MB Coordinates Discussions Marine Advisory Public Advisory Learn more about Tropical Storm Lorena and the 2013 East Pacific hurricane season here. radar data from Cabo San Lucas suggest the center of Lorena is approaching the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. Some banding is evident...although the overall organization is not that impressive in the latest satellite images. Dvorak estimates still suggest an intensity of 35 kt...and that will be the initial wind speed. No significant change in strength is expected before Lorena interacts with land during the next 6-12 h. After that time... entrainment of more stable air and continued land interaction should cause some weakening of the cyclone. Since it is such a weak system to begin with...Lorena should become a remnant low and/or dissipate near Baja California over the weekend. The latest NHC forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the global model predictions...the latter of which have done a fine job on anticipating the lack of strengthening. Lorena appears to be moving northwestward at a slower pace...315/10. A deep-layer ridge to the northeast should continue to steer the cyclone northwestward at a decreasing forward speed....and as the storm weakens...it should slow and turn northward. The primary disagreement in the model guidance is how far north the cyclone gets before it decouples vertically. Since the cyclone is not expected to be very strong...it should become more steered by the low-level flow...and will probably stay south of the GFDL/HWRF forecasts which show a stronger system. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one...generally lying near or south of the model consensus. Forecast positions and Max winds init 06/1500z 22.3n 109.4w 35 kt 40 mph 12h 07/0000z 23.1n 110.4w 35 kt 40 mph 24h 07/1200z 23.8n 111.1w 30 kt 35 mph 36h 08/0000z 24.3n 111.4w 25 kt 30 mph...Post-trop/remnt low 48h 08/1200z 25.0n 111.5w 25 kt 30 mph...Post-trop/remnt low 72h 09/1200z...dissipated $$ forecaster Blake/Beven

bajajudy - 9-6-2013 at 11:12 AM

Town report:
Rain, flooding, businesses closed.
Not too much wind
Looks like we could be about to get some REAL weather.

monoloco - 9-6-2013 at 11:24 AM

We're having a break in the rain here, but we picked up .39" in the last couple of hours.

Rancho Leonero web cam link

windgrrl - 9-6-2013 at 11:53 AM

In case you don't have this one:
http://www.rancholeonero.com/

Thinking of you all and hoping for the best,
W
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