watizname - 6-22-2014 at 08:46 AM
Even though the disturbance off Manzanillo doesn't have much of a chance to become a named storm, the track it is taking right now looks ominous. I
hope this doesn't portend future storm tracts this season. 
BooJumMan - 6-23-2014 at 06:20 AM
It certainly blew up overnight!
Meany - 6-23-2014 at 06:55 AM
Yep!! Something to keep and eye on. Weather underground shows it at 35 mph and one track going over the Mulege area?? Could be some waves in front of
Russ's Bird house
bajabuddha - 6-23-2014 at 07:11 AM
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/east-pacific/2014/inve...
Wunderground shows it to stay in 'tropical storm/depression' mode for the next 3 days, not achieving notable status, with 4 of the 5 models pointed
out due west to sea. One does have a north track to Mulege area.
As noted before, this is an El Nino event year, the ocean temps will be warmer and farther north than usual, which is the gasoline for the storm
engines. The possibility of at least one major storm if not more to make landfall on Baja is significant. Git'cher bottled water and provisions
ready, and stay alert and safe. Buena suerte, Baja Lovers!
chuckie - 6-23-2014 at 07:39 AM
That one has been hanging around down there for 2-3-4 days as a wet spot...hasn't done much so far,but IS moving North at a pretty good
rate....Remember!!! Its the RAIN that gits ya...What Buddha said + toilet paper
elskel - 6-23-2014 at 09:39 AM
Bring on some rain to Souther Baja!
BooJumMan - 6-23-2014 at 10:03 AM
You guys read about the counter current in the western Pacific that will be postponing, and possibly negating any El Nino this year? Its been
happening for the last 2 weeks, but will take 3 months to actually have any impact on us over here.
http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html
The Pacific equatorial surface counter-current (from 2N to 2S from the Philippines to the Galapagos) as of 6/17 was tracking strongly anomalously east
to west from the Galapagos to the dateline, the exact opposite direction it should be to build warm waters in the East Pacific. In fact, the actual
current was starting to track east to west over the same area too. The current is still flowing west to east in the far West Pacific though. The
assumption is the change in direction is attributable to development of easterly winds in the same area. A Westerly Wind burst is needed ASAP if this
El Nino is to remain viable. On 5/28 the counter current was strongly anomalously tracking west to east, typical of an El Nino configuration. But by
June 2 data looked less impressive with the current losing some velocity and reacting to the previous reduction in westerly anomalies west of the
dateline. On (6/7) had a small pocket of strong easterly anomalies building in the current centered at 155W and extending from 120W to 170W, in the
heart of the Nino3.4 region. The actual current was still pushing east, but there was one small pocket of westward pushing anomalies. We'll continue
to be conservative and suggesting this is not good news, and could be a harbinger of things to come. We've used these data points in the past as early
lead indicators and they have been trustworthy, no matter how much we didn't want to accept what they told us. Said another way: We've used a west
bound counter current as early indicators for either the demise or start up of El Nino in the past, and Pacific equatorial winds have normally
responded in kind with a delay of about two weeks, normally to the demise of whatever warm event was trying to take root. In a worst case scenario,
the situation could play out like this: No WWB class wind events have occurred 5/1 to present. And assuming 3 months of travel time for the tail end
of the resulting Kelvin Wave to erupt over the Galapagos and Ecuador, the existing warm pool should start dissipating on 8/1, unless something
develops to reinforce it. And even at that, if a WWB were to develop today, it would not reach the Galapagos till 9/12. So there's a 6 week 'hole'
where the warm pool will start loosing energy (8/1-9/12) even if reinforcements develop immediately (unless some unknown process is occurring
continuing to push warm water eastward). And this 'hole' is growing every day. This is what occurred in the 2012 False-Start El Nino, only this years
situation is on a much larger scale. The CFSv2 model likely senses this, and is projecting accordingly. We'll continue monitoring this situation
closely.
[Edited on 6-23-2014 by BooJumMan]
bajabuddha - 6-23-2014 at 10:33 AM
Good stuff, BJM. Hadn't seen that info, that is encouraging news. Rain is good, a LOT of rain isn't.
Just goes to show, "No matter where you go, when you get there... THERE Y'ARE !"
El Jefe - 6-23-2014 at 12:07 PM
It just blew in with sideways rain and big wind on near east cape. Feels great to play in the rain after a before the storm surf. All is good at the
tip.
Eli - 6-23-2014 at 12:38 PM
Lots of clouds and a hearty breeze right now in L.B.
tiotomasbcs - 6-23-2014 at 12:50 PM
On the West Cape we have been covered in cumulus clouds since noon. Some sprinkles but no wind over here. Well, light westerly to 8mph but it looks
ominous! eebmike shows the storm heading right over BCS. We're dry as a bone down here. It's time, no?! Tio
BFS - 6-23-2014 at 12:56 PM
"It never rains in June, it's the perfect time to re-roof your house" they said.