Looks like it is following the path of Polo. Thanks god
[Edited on 9-24-2014 by BajaNomad]
[Edited on 9-25-2014 by BajaNomad]BajaNomad - 9-21-2014 at 07:36 PM
1. A broad low pressure area located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next several days as the low moves west-
northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.Whale-ista - 9-21-2014 at 07:57 PM
Any chance of rain up here in San Diego?shari - 9-21-2014 at 08:13 PM
this one should pump surf our way on the weekend!BajaNomad - 9-24-2014 at 10:48 AM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2014
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14
MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
The programmer who put this together did so to learn the programming language Javascript. I'd say he learned it rather well.shari - 9-24-2014 at 01:33 PM
so I was wondering what the name would be if this one cranks up...a Q name...but they pass on the Q and so it would be Rachel....wouldnt surprise me
at all if it intensifies.StuckSucks - 9-24-2014 at 04:48 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by SFandH
My favorite storm watching site:
The programmer who put this together did so to learn the programming language Javascript. I'd say he learned it rather well.
VERY cool. This is a keeper for me.Ateo - 9-24-2014 at 10:06 PM
And then there was Rachel...named a TS as of the 8PDT advisory......via Surfline.
Quetzoquoatl ??
neilm81301 - 9-25-2014 at 06:38 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by shari
so I was wondering what the name would be if this one cranks up...a Q name...but they pass on the Q and so it would be Rachel....wouldnt surprise me
at all if it intensifies.
CaboSur - 9-25-2014 at 06:55 AM
Although it's projected path is well off the baja coast , I will certainly keep an eye on it! That right hook it has is concerning.Whale-ista - 9-25-2014 at 07:21 AM
Checked the earth.null link last night, and saw 2 distinct wind patterns off coast SE of Baja peninsula.
Went to bed, awoke today: now looks like they have merged into 1 stronger system.
Uh oh....
Is this still Polo? And will that "merge" make it stronger and potentially more dangerous for Baja?SFandH - 9-25-2014 at 07:41 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by Whale-ista
Checked the earth.null link last night, and saw 2 distinct wind patterns off coast SE of Baja peninsula.
Went to bed, awoke today: now looks like they have merged into 1 stronger system.
They are merging. When viewing this link keep in mind the color of the wind vectors denote wind strength. I'm not sure of the exact breakdown but the colors change from green to
yellow to orange to red, depending on the wind speed.bajabuddha - 9-25-2014 at 08:16 AM
SO FAR wunderground says it'll remain a tropical storm for the next 4 days, and lessen to 'tropical depression' status before reaching mid-Baja....
that is at least a semi-positive. It will potentially bring lots of rain, but less damaging winds. Here we go again. Still, anything more than 72
hours is an educated guess, but i'd be stocking up on things I forgot or needed in the last one. Buena suerte Baja.chuckie - 9-25-2014 at 08:24 AM
Or, live in denial...Nah we wont have any more bad rains....BajaNomad - 9-25-2014 at 02:49 PM
...RACHEL CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
chuckie - 9-25-2014 at 03:22 PM
Lets just hope she doesnt pick up too much water on her way....BajaNomad - 9-25-2014 at 03:25 PM
After strengthening earlier today, Rachel appears to have leveled
off in intensity this afternoon. The initial wind speed is held
at a possibly generous 45 kt based on the latest satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. The low-level center of the
storm is located near the northeastern edge of the main area of deep
convection due to about 15 kt of shear. This shear is expected to
lessen during the next couple of days, which should allow Rachel to
gain strength. By the end of the weekend and early next week, the
cyclone is expected to move over cooler water, and into an
atmosphere of southwesterly shear and drier air. These unfavorable
conditions should cause a weakening trend. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term,
but is otherwise unchanged and is near the SHIPS guidance.
Rachel is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt steered by
mid-level ridging to its north and northeast. A large trough
currently offshore of the west coast of the U.S. is expected to
move eastward causing the ridge to weaken and shift eastward as
well. This change in the synoptic pattern should cause Rachel to
gradually turn northward during the next few days. By the end of
the forecast period, the weakening system is expected to slow down
or become stationary when it becomes embedded in weak low-level
steering currents. The NHC track forecast is a little to the left
of the previous one and slower at the end of the period, following
the trend in the latest guidance.
Call it a dumb hunch, but mid-Baja, between Monday and Thursday, get ready for a big rain. 'Nuff said. Again, Buena suerte mis amigos y compaņeros a
Mulege y San Lucitas.
Shari, don't sell the plywood yet.BajaNomad - 9-26-2014 at 05:52 AM
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014
...RACHEL ABOUT TO PASS BETWEEN SOCORRO AND CLARION ISLANDS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
THIS AFTERNOON. RACHEL IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN FURTHER AND TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONEBajaNomad - 9-27-2014 at 09:50 AM
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014
...RACHEL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST LATER
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY...AND RACHEL COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.BajaNomad - 9-27-2014 at 09:55 AM
