[Edited on 10-4-2014 by BajaNomad]chuckie - 9-29-2014 at 03:49 PM
Been keeping an eye on that one...shari - 9-29-2014 at 04:23 PM
looks like Simon will follow Polo's lead...we hope.Zola - 9-29-2014 at 06:08 PM
It appears that this system will almost certainly become a tropical storm very close to the southern coast of Mexico. Does that bode well or ill for
Baja or is it too early to say? I ask at the zero hour! After weeks of putting off plans to drive down, I plan to do so in the wee hours of the
morning. Any idle chatter on the topic I will greedily devour. I will probably go on the thinking that conditions are no longer ripe for a major
hurricane event and also because the most models suggest that this system will stay out at sea, away from the Peninsula. The NHC says that it is 90%
likely that this system will become a tropical storm within the next five days.... Will it never end?
[Edited on 9-30-2014 by Zola]chuckie - 9-29-2014 at 06:19 PM
No, it will never end...and Yes just deal with it..common sense and planning will get you by...You cant let unknowns run your life..Lotta people
do...Lo Siento for them....shari - 9-29-2014 at 06:42 PM
my crystal ball says that this will certainly develop into at least a tropical storm and most likely Hurricane Simon that will bring more nice surf
our way mid week next week but not much wind...maybe some rain...but probably not here as we are muy saladas when it comes to rain...meaning we have
bad luck and rarely get rain.
I think Odile was "the big one" I had predicted way back in the spring although it was Norbert who did more damage here in Asuncion with the big
swell.bajabuddha - 9-29-2014 at 10:21 PM
OHHHH CHRYSTAL BALL.........!!!!
Zola, call the gal in Lake Elsinore and borrow a few Xanax. This late, water is cooling down (general ocean temps) so JUST GUESSING won't be a major
'nuther hurricane, but WILL bring tropical moisture up to the western mainland and Baja. MAYBE. So, whatever you ran out of, BUY MORE. And, maybe,
just MAYBE, could fizzle, but keep kewl, and plan accordingly.
Shari, your crystal balls are very impressive. Let's hope Mulege doesn't do any more 'dredging' upstream for the nonce. Once again, El Niño has
impressed the living chite out of me... man, what a show of nature. I once again feel for all of you , and am sorry I can't physically be there to
help. Y'all button up and keep the THIRD-EYE open (for those who knows). I didn't post this thread for me.
bbZola - 9-29-2014 at 10:58 PM
Thanks for the advice, and I didn't mean to overreact. I never before paid close attention to hurricane weather, and I am getting a crash course this
season! I will pass on the Xanax and take comfort in some red wine instead. BajaNomad - 9-30-2014 at 04:32 AM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward near 10 mph. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance should produce locally
heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash
flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.cj5orion - 9-30-2014 at 05:59 AM
sailflows FORECAST Tues Oct 10chuckie - 9-30-2014 at 06:13 AM
nuttin derebajalearner - 9-30-2014 at 08:12 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by chuckie
No, it will never end...and Yes just deal with it..common sense and planning will get you by...You cant let unknowns run your life..Lotta people
do...Lo Siento for them....
I think this is a great statement. But could it be the world is not flat and there isn't really an invisible man in the sky pulling my strings?chuckie - 9-30-2014 at 08:40 AM
Does not look flat from my front door this morning
[Edited on 10-1-2014 by BajaNomad]shari - 9-30-2014 at 08:44 AM
we have been closely watching storm developments and tracks since we got internet here...before that, we listened to reports on the VHF radio and
could only guess and hope for the best.
It is fascinating to study the different models and how reliable they each are or not and take into consideration all the factors of water temps,
ridges etc. Reading the discussions on eebmike is interesting to learn what steers these things and one gets to know the fellows writing the
discussions too.
It is so comforting to be able to watch the storms real time via satellite imagery...until the power & internet goes out...then we are back to
square one listening to the vhf again and watching the sky.
Simon looks like a crap shoot...could go either way at this point... east or west? I am leaning west...BajaNomad - 9-30-2014 at 06:04 PM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014
An elongated area of low pressure a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico has shown little change in organization
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions conditions
are favorable for a tropical depression to form tomorrow or Thursday
while the system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest near
10 mph. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance
will likely produce locally heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.cj5orion - 10-1-2014 at 04:40 AM
YEA...LINKS DIDNT WORK ?
JUS GOOGLE FOR "SAILFLOW"
CLICK UPPER LEFT ICON
GOTO "WIND FORECAST MAP"BajaNomad - 10-1-2014 at 05:26 AM
500 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form later
today or Thursday while the system moves toward the west-northwest
or northwest near 10 mph. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
this disturbance will likely produce locally heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
BajaNomad - 10-1-2014 at 05:29 AM
.
AKgringo - 10-1-2014 at 08:00 AM
I am new to this site, and have a question about these forecasts. Can someone tell me if these are six different possibilities created by the same
program, or predictions of six different programs? Has your experience shown any one model to be more reliable than another?
I notice that storm track NGFDL, exactly matches my destination and timetable!
Thanks, G.L.bajabuddha - 10-1-2014 at 08:16 AM
AK, even the bestest of the bestest will testify that anything more than a 72-hour forecast is at best a 60% probability of an educated guess (Quote
by Mark Eubanks, Utah meteorologist extraordinaire). Best to plan on being flexible, load for bear, and have lots of extra cervezas..chuckie - 10-1-2014 at 09:31 AM
You can't trust a hurricane....(Baja Buddha-circa 1941)BajaNomad - 10-1-2014 at 01:30 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by AKgringo
Can someone tell me if these are six different possibilities created by the same program, or predictions of six different programs? Has your
experience shown any one model to be more reliable than another?
I'm uncertain of the relevance of whether it's the same program or not - these are six different forecasts based upon whatever different variables and
historic information are being used with each.
[Edited on 10-1-2014 by BajaNomad]BajaNomad - 10-1-2014 at 02:09 PM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
THURSDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
BajaNomad - 10-1-2014 at 02:12 PM
.
willardguy - 10-1-2014 at 02:16 PM
I think NOAA is really missing the boat not including the Nomad model, what with all the forecasters here, but without our Amateur Junior Associate
Part Time Meteorologist (DavidE) we're lacking somewhat! BajaNomad - 10-1-2014 at 06:46 PM
.
[Edited on 10-2-2014 by BajaNomad]
BajaNomad - 10-1-2014 at 09:23 PM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014
...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
THURSDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
BajaNomad - 10-2-2014 at 05:32 AM
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2014
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM SIMON JUST OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO AND
NAYARIT IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
bajajudy - 10-2-2014 at 06:46 AM
oh boy
just got power back yesterday
my remaining plants do need some watervjfamily - 10-2-2014 at 06:57 AM
Judy : so good to see you back, congrats on getting power.shari - 10-2-2014 at 06:57 AM
do I look worried? nahhhh...it never rains here..until it does! my crystal ball is a bit foggy this morning but I would be surprised if Simon doesnt
start spinning more over the next couple days. I am leaning west but that hook might get interesting.tiotomasbcs - 10-2-2014 at 08:12 AM
I'm trying to head south but It looks like this one will land somewhere? Hope not! Nuff rain, verdad? Howz the road along the Bay of Concepcion, El
Parador construction areas? I'm ready for a few Pacificos and fish tacos!
Tiowoody with a view - 10-2-2014 at 08:20 AM
120 hours to landfall as of this mornings model run. right into Mag Bay as of now.
I have found this stormsurfing site to be very accurate...Woody has predicted these storms when they were mere puffs...they must have a top of the
line crystal ball eh!
So many storms follow this patter...the first few projections have it coming straight for us in Asuncion...then they get sucked over eastward by the
high seatemps in the gulf..passing over Mag Bay and nailing the Mulege area with rain...ruh roh.woody with a view - 10-2-2014 at 08:52 AM
it is VERY accurate inside 90 hours.Sweetwater - 10-2-2014 at 11:38 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by woody with a view
120 hours to landfall as of this mornings model run. right into Mag Bay as of now.
Wow, that forecast for Japan startled me too. Looks like it will knock out the F1 Japanese Grand Prix.woody with a view - 10-2-2014 at 11:49 AM
yeah, those are REAL BIG storms over there.BajaNomad - 10-2-2014 at 12:13 PM
.
DENNIS - 10-2-2014 at 12:28 PM
Not a pretty sight.BajaNomad - 10-2-2014 at 02:18 PM
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014
...SIMON STRENGTHENS AND TURNS MORE WESTWARD...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST. SIMON IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SIMON SHOULD PASS NEAR SOCORRO
ISLAND ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SIMON COULD BECOME A HURRICANE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO AND
NAYARIT IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.EdwardTeach - 10-2-2014 at 03:45 PM
LimonBajaNomad - 10-2-2014 at 10:14 PM
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 6
800 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014
...SIMON COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED ON
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SIMON SHOULD PASS
NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND LATE FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SIMON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO AND
NAYARIT IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
BajaNomad - 10-3-2014 at 06:12 AM
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014
...SIMON EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY MORNING...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SIMON SHOULD PASS OVER OR
NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO...NAYARIT...SOUTHERN
SINALOA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
BajaNomad - 10-3-2014 at 06:15 AM
.
shari - 10-3-2014 at 06:39 AM
buen dia amigos...it looks as if Simon is reaching the cape area this morning so it would be nice to begin our on site reports. Is it raining yet down
there?
It is very hot and muggy here in Asuncion this morning and we are seeing the outer bands already as Simon works it's way up.
dont forget not to cross those arroyos when they start to run...good luck everyone.Mula - 10-3-2014 at 06:46 AM
Here in Lopez - first day of really thick fog.
Heading to San Nicolas for the cabalgata and fiesta tomorrow, so no reports from Lopez until Monday.
edited for typo.
[Edited on 10-3-2014 by Mula]woody with a view - 10-3-2014 at 06:50 AM
finger and toes are crossed!shari - 10-3-2014 at 08:31 AM
Here is the 8:00 am discussion which sort of says nobody is quite sure where Simon will spin. Looks like we are in for more rain somewhere
though...any reports from the tip this morning?????
TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014
First-light visible imagery and a 1205 UTC SSMI/S overpass indicate
that Simon has become a little better organized. The storm has a
central dense overcast with outer bands present in all quadrants,
and the microwave data shows a mid-level eyewall forming near or
over the low-level center. However, the cloud pattern continues
to show some signs of easterly shear. Satellite intensity
estimates are 55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and recent CIMSS ADT, AMSU,
and SATCON estimates are 50-55 kt. The initial intensity is thus
increased to 50 kt.
The initial motion is now 285/8. Simon should move generally
west-northwestward for the next 36 hours or so as it is steered by
the subtropical ridge to the north and northeast. After that time,
the track guidance becomes very divergent. The GFS, GFS ensemble
mean, and UKMET forecast Simon to recurve through a break in the
ridge near 115W and move inland over Baja California and
northwestern Mexico. The ECMWF and the NAVGEM show Simon moving much
farther west, with a northward turn delayed until the cyclone is
west of 120W. Given the magnitude of the disagreement, the official
forecast will follow the trend of the previous forecast in showing
a slow northward to northeastward motion from 72-120 hours. The new
forecast track is and update of the previous track and similar to,
but slower than, the Florida State Superensemble.
Simon will be moving over warmer water with SSTs near 28-29C during
the next 24-36 hours while the deep-layer vertical shear is
expected to be light. This should allow continued strengthening
until the cyclone encounters cooler waters in 36-48 hours. The new
intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is in
best agreement with the SHIPS model. There are two major sources
of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. The first is that rapid
intensification is still a possibility during the next 24 hours or
so, although the probabilities shown in the SHIPS Rapid
Intensification Index are slowly decreasing. Second, how much cool
water Simon will encounter is dependent on the track. The GFS track
would keep the storm over relatively warm water, while the ECMWF/
NAVGEM track would take it over much cooler water.
[Edited on 10-3-2014 by SFandH]shari - 10-3-2014 at 10:39 AM
I am just curious....by the look of the satellite, the cape may be getting some rain...can anyone from down there report? Our land lines have been out
for 3 days now...so maybe they have no internet down there?micah202 - 10-3-2014 at 10:50 AM
Buena Vista had a couple rain drops, small rollers are starting.BajaNomad - 10-3-2014 at 02:13 PM
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 9
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014
...SIMON STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES SOCORRO ISLAND...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SIMON WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER SOCORRO
ISLAND DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT SIMON IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.BajaNomad - 10-3-2014 at 02:35 PM
.
bajajudy - 10-3-2014 at 03:39 PM
VERY limited internet
cloudy, some rain, no wind
what is left of my plants needs a good soaking. we are seeing little green leaves on many that sure looked dead.
this is going to take quite some time to recover from
thanks for all the good wishes, nomadsmulegemichael - 10-3-2014 at 04:29 PM
bueno suerte, judy....we're in mulege so can commiserate...last one pushed over 7 feet of surging sewer water throughout our house and guest casitas
leaving just over 18" of mud on every surface...just got it cleaned up....here comes simon...price ya pay for living in paradise...i guess.watizname - 10-3-2014 at 05:28 PM
Boy, that little island that is way out there where these storms have been gathering strength, has really been getting it's a$$ kicked. Seems the last
two or three storms have been right on top of it. Glad I don't live there. Does anyone??bajacalifornian - 10-3-2014 at 06:15 PM
18°43′41″N 110°57′07″W / 18.728°N 110.952°W / 18.728; -110.952, established in 1957, with a population
of 250 (staff and families)"BajaNomad - 10-3-2014 at 06:26 PM
.
Katiejay99 - 10-3-2014 at 06:41 PM
My internet literally just got up and running. THANK YOU powers that be.
We have intermittent spitting of some rain "Chispiando" and no wind. We really don't need wind nor rain, thank you very much. Everyone in town is
freaking out over Simon but I keep telling them that it will be a non-event. Let's hope I am right. It is HOT here and lots of "Bobos" - Gnats.
I will write something about the Odile experience when I have a chance.Mexitron - 10-3-2014 at 06:48 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by bajacalifornian
SOCORRO ISLAND quick read
18°43′41″N 110°57′07″W / 18.728°N 110.952°W / 18.728; -110.952, established in 1957, with a population
of 250 (staff and families)"
Hurricane Linda drove right over it in '97 too....shari - 10-3-2014 at 07:16 PM
I truly hope all of you who suffered in Odile are spared this time! I know we are due our fair share and Juan is getting the plywood ready just in
case..never trust a hurricane right? I am starting preparations just in case...because as I have said before, if the swell is 15' and there is a full
moon high tide AND we get rain, flooding will occur.rts551 - 10-3-2014 at 08:05 PM
probably coastal flooding anywayBajaNomad - 10-3-2014 at 08:35 PM
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014
...SIMON BECOMES THE 13TH HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON MOVED VERY CLOSE TO SOCORRO ISLAND
...MEXICO A FEW HOURS AGO...AND AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC..IS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.
SIMON IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM. A MEXICAN
NAVY AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...80 KM/HR AND A GUST TO 69 MPH...112
KM/HR A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN SIMON PASSED NEAR THAT ISLAND.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 15 INCHES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
BajaNomad - 10-3-2014 at 08:50 PM
HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014
Satellite estimates from TAFB, SAB and University of Wisconsin
CIMSS indicate that Simon has reached hurricane intensity with 65
kt. Simon is the 13th hurricane of the quite active eastern North
Pacific hurricane season of 2014, and another cyclone moving very
near or over Socorro Island, Mexico. Hourly observations from that
island provided by the Mexican Navy have been very useful in
determining the structure of Simon.
The cloud pattern is better organized tonight with a small but well-
defined inner core as indicated by the convective ring displayed in
several microwave overpasses during the past several hours. Simon
has the opportunity to strengthen a little more during the next 24
hours as it continues to move over a pool of 29.5 degree Celsius
water and extremely low shear. After 36 hours, the circulation of
Simon will begin to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and into a
more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast follows the
trend of the guidance which suggests Simon reaching its peak
intensity in a day or so.
The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest
or 285 degrees at 10 kt. However, Simon is reaching the southwestern
edge of the high pressure ridge centered over Mexico, and
approaching a large mid-level trough over the Central Pacific. This
pattern calls for a gradual turn toward the northwest and north
during the next 3 days as indicated in the official forecast. Beyond
3 days, the steering pattern becomes more complex, and the cyclone
either recurves to the northeast as suggested by the GFS or begins
to meander as forecast by the ECMWF. Since Simon is expected to be a
weaker storm by the end of the forecast period, it will likely move
little while embedded within the much lighter low-level flow. The
last portion of the forecast is highly uncertain.
BajaNomad - 10-3-2014 at 08:53 PM
.
micah202 - 10-4-2014 at 09:54 AM
.
.....finally a bit of good news on passageweather,,it's showing a bit of ease in the windstrengths before hitting the asuncion area--hopefully that
trend continues!!
...those waveheights are rather more than Marie though
[Edited on 10-4-2014 by micah202]shari - 10-4-2014 at 10:47 AM
Hmmm...here in Asuncion, we have been very fortunate to avoid much damage but when the stars and conditions align...things can get nasty. We can
endure a 15' swell IF there is no rain...but a high tide, big swell AND rain will cause alot of flooding. We havent had a gully washer in many years
here and lots of building has gone on so it will be interesting to see where the water will go...if it cant flow out to sea due to the high swell and
tide...ruh roh
Update!: Simon intensifies; 115 MPH sustained winds
BajaNomad - 10-4-2014 at 11:03 AM
11:00 am PDT special update:
HURRICANE SIMON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SIMON HAS BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE...
DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SIMON HAS
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/H...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT
IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. THIS MAKES SIMON THE EIGHTH MAJOR
HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 114.6W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 12
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014
...SIMON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SIMON IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY...AND
SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE SIMON LATER TODAY.
SIMON REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.micah202 - 10-4-2014 at 11:06 AM
.
.....another potentially mitigating factor is the storm's rotation.If it lands as shown,,I'd be more concerned with that area to the south that get's
the full brunt of storm-surge
[Edited on 10-4-2014 by micah202]woody with a view - 10-4-2014 at 11:09 AM
Simon Cabron!BajaNomad - 10-4-2014 at 11:12 AM
HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014
Infrared satellite imagery indicates that Simon has undergone rapid
intensification during the past several hours. A small eye has
formed, and the cloud tops surrounding the eye are in the -75C to
-85C range. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to 102 kt
from TAFB and 90 kt from SAB, and the latest estimated from the
CIMSS ADT is 90 kt. Based on these, the initial intensity is
increased to 95 kt, and this could be conservative. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Simon later
today.
The initial motion is now 295/11. Simon is expected to move
west-northwest to northwestward for the next 36 hours or so as is
approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge to its north. After
that, the system is expected to turn northward and northeastward,
although there remains significant spread in the track guidance on
when and how fast this will occur. The GFS, GFS ensemble mean,
NAVGEM, and the GFDL show Simon moving quickly to the northeast,
eventually making landfall on the Baja California peninsula and in
northwestern Mexico. The ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models show the turn
occurring later and farther west, and these models forecast the
cyclone to dissipate over water west of the Baja California
peninsula. The forecast track continues to compromise between these
two extremes in showing a slow northeastward motion after
recurvature. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track
and is slower than the model consensus.
How long the current rapid intensification will continue is
uncertain, as Simon is now moving over decreasing sea surface
temperatures. The new intensity forecast follows the guidance trend
of showing 12 hours more strengthening. Simon is now forecast to
become a major hurricane, and it would not be a surprise if it
reached a higher peak intensity than currently forecast. After 12
hours, cooler waters under the forecast track should result in a
weakening trend, and this should become more pronounced after 48
hours due to increasing shear. The new intensity forecast shows
rapid weakening after 48 hours, with Simon expected to become a
remnant low by the end of the forecast period. It should be noted
that, if Simon follows the GFS forecast track, it would likely
weaken more slowly than currently forecast since it would stay over
warmer water and encounters less shear.
Zola - 10-4-2014 at 11:13 AM
According to the NHS, Simon is small in size and will make landfall as a tropical storm or remnant low in south-central Baja or dissipate over sea to
the west of central Baja. If it comes ashore, it might be stronger than intially expected. In any case it might bring rain to the region from Tuesday
onward.
"The GFS, GFS ensemble mean, NAVGEM, and the GFDL show Simon moving quickly to the northeast, eventually making landfall on the Baja California
peninsula and in northwestern Mexico. The ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models show the turn occurring later and farther west, and these models forecast the
cyclone to dissipate over water west of the Baja California peninsula. The forecast track continues to compromise between these two extremes in
showing a slow northeastward motion after recurvature. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and is slower than the model
consensus."
[Edited on 10-4-2014 by Zola]Zola - 10-4-2014 at 11:17 AM
I add that at the moment Simon is rapidly intensifying and is forecast to become a major hurricane later today, then diminish in strength by tomorrow.
It is far out at sea but might bring rainfall to southernmost BCS.
I wonder if anyone in the far south can give a report of conditions there today?BajaNomad - 10-4-2014 at 11:21 AM
Quote:
11:00 am PDT special update:
HURRICANE SIMON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SIMON HAS BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE...
BajaNomad - 10-4-2014 at 11:36 AM
Quote:
It should be noted that, if Simon follows the GFS forecast track, it would likely weaken more slowly than currently forecast since it would stay
over warmer water and encounters less shear.
redmesa - 10-4-2014 at 12:25 PM
11:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 4
Location: 20.3°N 114.6°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Max sustained: 115 mphBruce R Leech - 10-4-2014 at 01:07 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by chuckie
Does not look flat from my front door this morning
[Edited on 10-1-2014 by BajaNomad]
I'm from Steam Boat springs Co. what part of Co. are you from?shari - 10-4-2014 at 02:55 PM
I am curious to know if anyone is getting any rain anywhere?micah202 - 10-4-2014 at 03:08 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by shari
I am curious to know if anyone is getting any rain anywhere?
...occaisonal showers here in vancouver
...edit--sorry,,couldn't resist!
...amazingly it looks like there's already signs of the Ascuncisharinomad effect taking hold!!........
[Edited on 10-4-2014 by micah202]Udo - 10-4-2014 at 03:22 PM
Looks like BA could be in the eye of the storm!shari - 10-4-2014 at 04:10 PM
that would really suck
you can bet it is the talk of the town this afternoon...boats are being pulled out and the horizon is strewn with boats running north. We are in the
outer bands now...super humid...gonna take a quick dip in the pool to freshen up after all the tuna & yellowtail sashimi platters I just made for
the fishers who brought home the bacon.vandenberg - 10-4-2014 at 04:21 PM
Thunder and rain here in Nopolo/Loreto. No wind to speak off.
Have a Princess cruise ship coming in tomorrow with 3000 folks.
Bad time weather wise.
[Edited on 10-4-2014 by vandenberg]AKgringo - 10-4-2014 at 04:23 PM
Bacon sashimi? Yeah, that sounds good!bill erhardt - 10-4-2014 at 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by shari
I am curious to know if anyone is getting any rain anywhere?
A cloudburst in Insurgentes around 4:00 p.m. with water running in the streets. It eased a couple of miles east with sprinkles and scattered showers
across the hill and the same in Loreto now.shari - 10-4-2014 at 05:35 PM
thank you..keep those rain reports coming por favor...i want to know if I can keep my sleeping tent up one more night!
Lots of talk in town about possible storm effects...there is surely some handwringing from those who own some of the beachfront structures that have
been compromised in the last few storms.
and the lifeguard group has their program planned and should be challenging in the building surf...one of the kids grinned and said it was perfect for
honing up on the life saving skills they will be learning! true dat
We are starting to get prepared...lay in supplies, gasoline and get ready to tie roofs down. People are remembering Nora that was very similar to
Simon's behaviour....Ok, the laundry is done...should I start spinning now?bajacalifornian - 10-4-2014 at 06:00 PM
Dang. Even though I'm seeing it through eyes of a guy in Rosarito, I read my friends words from down the way.
Thanks all. You and you and you . . . Nomads all.BajaNomad - 10-4-2014 at 06:13 PM
.
BajaNomad - 10-4-2014 at 06:32 PM
.
willyAirstream - 10-4-2014 at 06:53 PM
Steady rain and thunder in Mulege, just started. The mountains looked dark and rainy all day.BajaNomad - 10-4-2014 at 07:01 PM
.
BajaNomad - 10-4-2014 at 07:07 PM
.
shari - 10-4-2014 at 07:08 PM
hmm...that big red blob is coming our way pretty quick...decisions decisions...tent or not to tent? It is so hot, I'm gonna tent but have the fly
ready to put on just in case. Have a safe night all...it's only just begun...tra la la laBajaNomad - 10-4-2014 at 07:18 PM
.
Feathers - 10-4-2014 at 07:18 PM
La Bocana: The wind has picked up DRAMATICALLY in the past 5 minutes.
Holey Moley!shari - 10-4-2014 at 07:30 PM
thank you Feathers...this is the kind of information that helps us so much...better get some things done now then...dang it.roundtuit - 10-4-2014 at 07:34 PM
8:30pm peak wind 7 some lighting sprinkles only Posadabajacalifornian - 10-4-2014 at 07:50 PM
Tio
