BajaNomad

PESO IS GOING FOR A DOWNHILL RIDE TODAY

rts551 - 10-15-2014 at 11:58 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by DENNIS
Right now:


13.5728 to 1 buck


So...Whats a buck? Did you get some pisos?

DENNIS - 10-15-2014 at 12:01 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by rts551
Quote:
Originally posted by DENNIS
Right now:


13.5728 to 1 buck


So...Whats a buck? Did you get some pisos?


I'm an ATM kinda guy. Just withdraw....never do the math.

You know what a buck is, Ralph. :light:

greengoes - 10-15-2014 at 12:46 PM

Woo Hoo I get almost 2 more of those tiny little silver coins you need a microscope to see what is written on them for my dollar.. They also make excellent shims for leprechauns and God's other smaller creatures.

GregJackson - 10-15-2014 at 01:03 PM

It's not so much a weak peso but a very strong dollar against all currencies. At any rate, it's good for all of us that are buying pesos with dollars.

DENNIS - 10-15-2014 at 01:47 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by GregJackson
It's not so much a weak peso but a very strong dollar against all currencies. At any rate, it's good for all of us that are buying pesos with dollars.



Yeah...I don't get involved with the Peso's big world. I grew up with it when it was stuck at 8 cents US. That certainly has changed.

rts551 - 10-15-2014 at 01:49 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by DENNIS
Quote:
Originally posted by GregJackson
It's not so much a weak peso but a very strong dollar against all currencies. At any rate, it's good for all of us that are buying pesos with dollars.



Yeah...I don't get involved with the Peso's big world. I grew up with it when it was stuck at 8 cents US. That certainly has changed.


sure has not helped the stock market though. win some... lose some

Still got some "old pesos" somewhere.

[Edited on 10-15-2014 by rts551]

StuckSucks - 10-15-2014 at 02:13 PM

13.54

mtgoat666 - 10-15-2014 at 02:57 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by DENNIS
Quote:
Originally posted by GregJackson
It's not so much a weak peso but a very strong dollar against all currencies. At any rate, it's good for all of us that are buying pesos with dollars.



Yeah...I don't get involved with the Peso's big world. I grew up with it when it was stuck at 8 cents US. That certainly has changed.


hasn't changed much, peso today is worth 7.3 cents US

greengoes - 10-15-2014 at 03:07 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by mtgoat666
Quote:
Originally posted by DENNIS

Yeah...I don't get involved with the Peso's big world. I grew up with it when it was stuck at 8 cents US. That certainly has changed.


hasn't changed much, peso today is worth 7.3 cents US


About four of these teeny silver things -

DENNIS - 10-15-2014 at 03:08 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by mtgoat666
[hasn't changed much, peso today is worth 7.3 cents US



Yeah...but it's no longer frozen. That was kinda my point.

DENNIS - 10-15-2014 at 03:11 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by greengoes

About four of these teeny silver things -



it's my understanding that it's a constitutional requirement that we have the penny.
I wouldn't be surprised if Mexico had the same requirement for these coins.

rhintransit - 10-15-2014 at 03:14 PM

got 13.24 pesos to the dollar when I hit the ATM today in Loreto. that includes the small MX bank fee, no charge from my USA institution...

Howard - 10-15-2014 at 03:36 PM

Thanks Roberta, that is the only figure that counts, whatever you get from the magic machine, not what the computer says.

AKgringo - 10-15-2014 at 03:47 PM

In 1986 we home schooled our three boys their second semester, left Anchorage the first week of February, and drove down the west coast to Cabo. We then took the Ferry from La Paz to Mazatlan and drove down to Ziuataneo (sp?) and worked our way north arriving back in Anchorage in May (fishing time).
When we crossed into Mexico, the Peso was about 160 to the Dollar. When we left, it had fallen to about 350 to one! Prices could not rise fast enough to keep up, so Mexico was on Sale big time!
I don't think I could have spent the winter in Anchorage for what we spent on that Vacation that my boys will remember for the rest of their life.
We even made a positive exchange every time we used plastic, paying back less than we spent.
Those were the days!
G.L.

Hook - 10-15-2014 at 03:51 PM

Watch the futures markets overnight. There was a mid day correction that gained back about 2/3 of the losses today. The futures may indication that the correction will continue.

Tomorrow COULD be the day that tells us whether we have reached a bottom in US stocks (aka, a buying opportunity, INVESTORS!!!).

This bump in the dollar is all about fear fleeing to the dollar. I think it will be short lived. I think the yield on the 10 year note hit 2.00 % today. That's probably a multi-year low.

But, it's a good time to use that ATM tomorrow. Rates are generally set by banks from the previous day. Drain that sucka!!!!

Bob53 - 10-15-2014 at 03:53 PM

I think I still have some un centavo coins around somewhere.

weebray - 10-15-2014 at 05:46 PM

One of my basic tenants in life is to stock up on stuff that I regularly use when it is on sale. The peso has been on sale since the end of Sept. and we are buying like we would if beer were two bucks a six pack.

BajaRat - 10-15-2014 at 06:29 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by weebray
One of my basic tenants in life is to stock up on stuff that I regularly use when it is on sale. The peso has been on sale since the end of Sept. and we are buying like we would if beer were two bucks a six pack.


como no :bounce:

chuckie - 10-15-2014 at 07:33 PM

Love these discussions...In April I came back to the US for medical reasons...I had 5 500 peso notes in my wallet...they are still there, neither gained nor shrunk...

bajabuddha - 10-15-2014 at 10:16 PM

Carlosito, i'd gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburguesa today.... :lol:

chuckie - 10-16-2014 at 05:17 AM

ELKBURGER!

Genecag - 10-16-2014 at 08:26 AM

Considering how much money the Feds printed to provide liquidity to the system, the dollar becoming stronger is a worrisome sign.

It is natural that the stocks are declining since less money being printed and pumped into the system, but so many big investors buying treasury notes yielding less than 2% is a bigger sign of problems to come.

The Feds are preparing for the China shoe to drop......

MitchMan - 10-16-2014 at 10:11 AM

Europe is pretty weak with potential threats of some economies experiencing 'deflation', China's decelerating economy doesn't help, and if Ebola becomes a pandemic, GDPs all over the place will drop.

I've been thinking right along that the stock market has been rather inflated as it is. Everyone invested in the market has been swooning over their recent gains, now everyone is looking wide eyed and worried. Never liked stocks; too capricious, unpredictable, and illogical in its behaviors; have always felt that real estate income property is a better investment, but you have to be comfortable with property management.

[Edited on 10-16-2014 by MitchMan]

WhackAMolE - 10-17-2014 at 12:11 PM

What's weird is that the casas de cambios in San Ysidro pay far less than the going rate. And the ones in Ensenada are even worse. The Compra is about 12.70 in Ensenada even with the "official" rate above 13.40.

Sweetwater - 10-17-2014 at 01:30 PM

The peso is linked to oil and as long as oil declines, especially below $80 a barrel, the peso will suffer.....

DENNIS - 10-17-2014 at 01:41 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by WhackAMolE
What's weird is that the casas de cambios in San Ysidro pay far less than the going rate. And the ones in Ensenada are even worse. The Compra is about 12.70 in Ensenada even with the "official" rate above 13.40.


The competitive Casas charge 2%, plus room for momentary fluctuation. They're in business to make a peso, so what else can they do?

MitchMan - 10-17-2014 at 03:12 PM

2% plus a fluctuation of $0.06 MXN (6 centavos) comes to a 13.07 exchange rate on an "official" rate of 13.4. Therefore, casas de cambio charging 12.7 in these circumstances well exceeds 2% commission. 12.7 reflects at least a 5% commission/fee rate. It is what it is. In a market based capitalistic system, they can charge anything they want; I realize that. But, I make it a point to look thoroughly at competitors' rates and then only patronize those with the best rates. That's what buyers in a market based capitalistic system can do.

The best thing to do, and it isn't very difficult or time consuming, is to use pesos that you get from an ATM with a USA bank debit card where you do not have to pay any fees at all. With that approach, you can always get the internet rate (official rate) less about 6 centavos: Official rate = 13.4, ATM rate usually 13.34. I do it all the time, every time in La Paz.

But if you pay the 12.7 rate, you're losing $50 USA dollars for every $13,400 pesos you spend.

About 3 weeks ago I took a taxi from the Tijuana airport to the San Ysidro border. The taxi driver was asking for $18 USD. I said I would pay him $15. He came back with $17 USD or $200 pesos. I whipped out the $200 pesos and asked him for a receipt. When he handed me the receipt I told him that the going ATM rate was 13.35. He took out his calculator, did a computation, then he looked at me with a look of shock (200/13.35 =$14.98 USD) . He was saying that the rates at casas de cambio were 11.5. Then I said that is a bad rate and that the bank rates were much better...he may have known that, but he did take out his calculator to check his own math.

[Edited on 10-17-2014 by MitchMan]

Russ - 10-17-2014 at 07:13 PM

I got 12.98 in Mulege today around 10 am

mulegemichael - 10-17-2014 at 07:18 PM

russ; at least you could get INTO mulege!....count yer blessings....see ya at scotties soon.

bajaspuds - 10-17-2014 at 08:19 PM

So how does the falling peso affect the price of gas at the Pemex pump?

Hook - 10-17-2014 at 08:40 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by bajaspuds
So how does the falling peso affect the price of gas at the Pemex pump?


Probably gives Nieto incentive to keep raising prices.

I can't believe how far out of line the price of fuel in Mexico is. How do the locals afford it?

Supposedly, the gas subsidies were cut loose about 2-3 years ago and the price would rise to some semblance of a "market value".

Well, they've blasted way past that. I paid more than a dollar a gallon less in the States in September compared to the price of Mexican fuel.

greengoes - 10-17-2014 at 09:16 PM

No comision

:)

bajabuddha - 10-17-2014 at 10:26 PM

Seems to me the peso has hovered just about the same for the last 3 years now (within 10-15%) which to me is a record stabilization in the years I've gone south. Not too long ago the 'sticker price' on items in the tiendas used to have 3 to 5 layers of price changes as the peso fluctuated. It was like pull-tab-roulette.... scratch a few off and hope the one you picked was the right color AND cheaper, too (j/k).

Also there's the fluctuation between going up when the touristas are coming south, and dropping when they're going home.... a natural occurrence. In the spring when all are migrating to their summer breeding grounds and want their dolares back from pesos the exchange rate falls, which makes more money for Mexico, que no? I'd love to see a true graph on the stabilization, up and down of the peso to the dollar from 2010 to 2014. This particular topic is more beaten to death than any other on BN.

DENNIS - 10-18-2014 at 08:28 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by bajaspuds
So how does the falling peso affect the price of gas at the Pemex pump?


The price of gas goes up every month regardless of the money market. The only difference for us on a dollar income, is the bang for our buck which fluctuates daily.

DENNIS - 10-18-2014 at 08:31 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Hook
I can't believe how far out of line the price of fuel in Mexico is. How do the locals afford it?



I'm convinced they have a well guarded member discount.
:lol:

MitchMan - 10-18-2014 at 09:11 AM

There are a great many things that affect the price at the pump. Of course, the global price of oil is a prominent factor, but there are many other factors that directly affect local gasoline prices such as short term supply and demand fluctuations (especially short term inventory fluctuations) together with location distribution cost differences.

Because gasoline is a necessity, the supply and demand affect on price is very different from commodities that have substitutes and/or are not necessities. That is, you can up the price of unique necessities and still sell nearly the same quantity of the item or produce and sell at a threshold quantity low enough where you can really up the price and still sell nearly the same quantity.

Economics 101: there is 'elastic' price demand and there is 'inelastic' price demand. Inelastic demand is for things like heart surgery, and all other necessities where there are few if any substitutes that exist and people will pay any price just about. Elastic supply and demand exists for things like butter vs margarine, beef vs pork, Ferraries Vs Toyota Corollas where changes in price will drive people to other similar products instead of paying the higher price or simply not buy the product because it is not a necessity.

Mexico may well up the price of gasoline in spite of lower global oil prices because it needs the revenue and because they can get it because of the 'inelasticity' of the supply and demand of gasoline. The Mexican federal government also changed the IVA sales tax (value added tax) in Baja from 10% to 16% recently...because it could.

Prices are not as connected to cost of production as most all people mistakenly think. Big business has almost everyone everywhere hoodwinked into believing that all prices are dictated by cost alone WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY NOT TRUE.

[Edited on 10-18-2014 by MitchMan]

DENNIS - 12-11-2014 at 07:21 AM




The fall continues:

Today: 14.57 to one

vandenberg - 12-11-2014 at 01:10 PM

Right now at 14.74.

For Nomads living in Baja, now is the time for big ticket items before prices adjust.

I'm looking for a standby generator. prefer Generac model 6438 11 KW.

Anyone know of suppliers in Baja?? or any advise how to get it here??



[Edited on 12-11-2014 by vandenberg]

Hook - 12-11-2014 at 01:50 PM

The Home Depots over here sell fairly large Generac generators. I dont know size or pricing. Of course it is cheaper in the States.

Since you are in Nopolo, you might find a trusting Nomad who will be down in La Paz for Xmas/NY and could be persuaded to drive one up for you from the HD in La Paz, on his way back home. If it was me, I would trust you to have the cash ready. But I am a trusting sort, when it comes to fronting money, and I've never been burned yet...........by a gringo. :biggrin:

Heck, there could be a way to do a bank to bank transfer from someone's US/Canadian bank to your US/Canadian bank and there would be no anxiety over the purchase.

BTW, the Canadian dollar has slipped below .87 cents/US dollar today. I believe the last two days, the looney has lost a half per cent in value each day.

Oil now BELOW 60 bucks a barrel for WTI crude. It's taking the looney and the peso down with it.

[Edited on 12-11-2014 by Hook]

chippy - 12-11-2014 at 03:42 PM

New car, new house , panga, appliances,tires, mistress its all good:light:

[Edited on 12-11-2014 by chippy]

Hook - 12-11-2014 at 09:26 PM

Hit 14.8 today, then dropped back to finish at 14.77.

Hook - 12-12-2014 at 05:46 AM

It breached 14.9 this AM. Still hovering around that figure. This is the highest it's been since March of 2009, when it did top 15/1.

DENNIS - 12-12-2014 at 06:09 AM



This has a way of making me just a bit nervous. Although against the rules, we'll be seeing a lot of consumer goods, as well as service prices changing from peso to dollar.

DENNIS - 12-17-2014 at 11:48 AM



After hitting 14.80 yesterday, the Peso is showing a bit of life:

14.53........to one.

24baja - 12-17-2014 at 03:30 PM

We just purchased at BOA@ 13.77 which is the highest we have found here in Oregon.

Howard - 12-17-2014 at 03:53 PM

Ya'll can look at the computer for currency conversion all you want the truth of the matter is what you actually get.

At the Bancomer ATM in Loreto yesterday I received 14.707 to the $.

Now for all you very wise men (and women) what should I do? I am having a wall built in a couple of weeks that will come to around 9,000 pesos.
Get the money now at 14.7 or hold out and try and get more in a couple of weeks?

I choose to go to Happy Hour and contemplate the current world currency market. Not.

How many of you think it will be higher than 14.7 and how many of you think it will be lower than 14.7 on December 31st?

Come on all you financial Einstein's, stick you neck out and give me your opinion. (Guess) :biggrin:

luv2fish - 12-17-2014 at 05:20 PM

Quote: Originally posted by DENNIS  


After hitting 14.80 yesterday, the Peso is showing a bit of life:

14.53........to one. [/rquote

If I may ask a dumb question, What or who controls the amount of pesos it takes to buy a U.S. Dollar ?

Salsa - 12-17-2014 at 09:25 PM

Have you ever heard of "supply and demand" ?

(With a little no lot of nudging by the government)

Don

[Edited on 12-18-2014 by Salsa]

DENNIS - 12-18-2014 at 06:41 AM

Quote: Originally posted by luv2fish
If I may ask a dumb question, What or who controls the amount of pesos it takes to buy a U.S. Dollar ?
[/rquote  


International money market.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/10/international-...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Monetary_Market

chuckie - 12-18-2014 at 06:55 AM

So? If I go to a bank in mexico, with ONE dollar and change it for pesos, how much will I get if the IMM says 14.59???

coconaco - 12-18-2014 at 10:03 AM

UNA MAS CERVEZA PORFAVOR, CON 5 TACOS DE TIBURON..

Not Tiburon, Angel Fish

MitchMan - 12-19-2014 at 10:48 AM

Quote:
posted by Dennis
If I may ask a dumb question, What or who controls the amount of pesos it takes to buy a U.S. Dollar ?


Not a dumb question at all, Dennis. You would be surprised at the variety of answers you would get to that question from different so called experts.

The exchange rate for most all currencies is determined by a world wide market of buying and selling currencies. There are exchanges where the buying and selling takes place throughout the world. As such, mostly classical 'market forces' are at play (much of the time, but certainly not all the time) determine the price.

Market Prices for major currencies, and therefore the exchange rate (which is itself the 'market price') for pesos vs US dollars has both short term and long term factors that come into play. All those market factors are known as 'fundamentals'. There are a bunch of factors, but, the big picture factors are geopolitics, actual market things such as but not at all limited to 'supply and demand' for given currencies at given points in time, and the self-serving deliberate actions of money brokers and large players in the market. Those are the most difficult to predict as the large players can influence the market price at will for their own benefit. Often times the large players are the countries themselves.

I don't know the precise dynamics of the peso vs the US dollar, but I do see some indicators such as the effect of Mexico's dwindling oil production, the changing strength of the US dollar (it is getting stronger against many other currencies as well, e.g. the Euro), the US's strengthening economy Vs Mexicos' lesser strength, the price of gold, silver, and oil dropping.

luv2fish - 12-21-2014 at 05:56 PM

Peso hits 15.00 WOW

Hook - 12-22-2014 at 06:09 AM

Howard, it's gonna trade in a range from probably 14.5 to 15 for a while, I expect. Oil prices arent going to suddenly rebound, excluding some MAJOR international incident. And this downturn in oil has resisted some international pressures, already. Mexico is a country heavily tied to the price of oil.

So, why not exchange a few dollars when it's above 14.7 and sit on them when it's below that? If you need them, and it's below 14.7, just go get them. Losing < 0.2 pesos per dollar ain't too bad.

Looks like 14.58, as I write.

Went to the cinema yesterday, to see Birdman (really enjoyed this wacky, very contemporary-Hollywood movie; incredible camera work, tremendous acting by the entire ensemble!). With my senior discount and dollars at 14.5, the movies in a really good, new theatre are 3.00 US. My wife and I were the ONLY people in there for the Sunday matinee. Spanish subtitles, English-speaking movies all the time over here.

Of course, a grande popcorn and a large coke are still about 5.50 US. They have figured out the American cinema pricing on snacks in a theatre.

Hook - 12-22-2014 at 06:11 AM

Dennis, WTF did you do, here? :lol:

Howard, it's gonna trade in a range from probably 14.5 to 15 for a while, I expect. Oil prices arent going to suddenly rebound, excluding some MAJOR international incident. And this downturn in oil has resisted some international pressures, already. Mexico is a country heavily tied to the price of oil.

So, why not exchange a few dollars when it's above 14.7 and sit on them when it's below that? If you need them, and it's below 14.7, just go get them. Losing < 0.2 pesos per dollar ain't too bad.

Looks like 14.58, as I write.

Went to the cinema yesterday, to see Birdman (really enjoyed this wacky, very contemporary-Hollywood movie; incredible camera work, tremendous acting by the entire ensemble!). With my senior discount and dollars at 14.5, the movies in a really good, new theatre are 3.00 US. My wife and I were the ONLY people in there for the Sunday matinee. Spanish subtitles, English-speaking movies all the time over here.

Of course, a grande popcorn and a large coke are still about 5.50 US. They have figured out the American cinema pricing on snacks in a theatre.

DENNIS - 12-22-2014 at 07:46 AM



That wasn't my question, Mitch. I can't figure out what happened here. It turned life into a side-bar.

ohhh well...if it doesn't get fixed, we can start a new thread.

Sweetwater - 12-22-2014 at 12:49 PM

Howard, the dollar is projected to continue to get much stronger.