Looks like we have another possible hurricane starting down South. They are giving it an 80% chance in 5 days and we were just getting ready to head
South.
The guy on this link says the season goes until the end of November.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A broad area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Dry air is currently inhibiting
development, but environmental conditions are forecast to become
more conducive for tropical cyclone formation later this week while
the system drifts toward the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
[Edited on 10-26-2014 by wiltonh]
[Edited on 10-27-2014 by wiltonh]
[Edited on 10-30-2014 by wiltonh]
[Edited on 10-31-2014 by BajaNomad]AKgringo - 10-26-2014 at 12:09 PM
Huh!........I just got to La Paz. Congratulated myself for missing all that storm crap!
Time will tell.BooJumMan - 10-26-2014 at 12:32 PM
Regardless, water temps are slowly dropping. Chances that it becomes a powerful system look to be pretty low.chuckie - 10-26-2014 at 12:35 PM
80% is not low....rts551 - 10-26-2014 at 12:57 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by BooJumMan
Regardless, water temps are slowly dropping. Chances that it becomes a powerful system look to be pretty low.
I don't know, Ana seems to be thriving in the cold water up North.bajagrouper - 10-26-2014 at 01:01 PM
Hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific is May 15th through November 30th...David K - 10-26-2014 at 01:43 PM
An early Baja 1000 (Nov) was hit by a hurricane in the south... Dick Cepek was wipped by it he wrote.StuckSucks - 10-26-2014 at 01:46 PM
In a week and a half, I'll be down there. I've always wanted to see a hurricane close-up and personal.chuckie - 10-26-2014 at 02:23 PM
I'll send you my ex wifes address.....BajaParrothead - 10-26-2014 at 03:36 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by chuckie
I'll send you my ex wifes address.....
Hook - 10-26-2014 at 08:05 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by chuckie
80% is not low....
80% chance of it forming, several hundred miles south. Almost zero chance that it will affect Baja.
Like someone said, water temps are dropping rapidly around here. The WNW winds have been blowing for a couple weeks, now. Temps are about to drop
below 80 F in many places. Even cooler on the Pacific side of Baja.BajaBlanca - 10-26-2014 at 08:35 PM
No hurricane please. The weather is cold and yours truly is the happiest she has been in MONTHS.
ask Feathers. She saw me having meltdowns
mikeymarlin - 10-26-2014 at 08:36 PM
to chuckie----very good response----I loved it !!wiltonh - 10-26-2014 at 10:41 PM
Here is the first track I have seen on Invest 93e.
Talk about your irony, Tropical Storm (former Hurricane) Anna is going to impact BCN... British Columbia Norte... tomorrow, combining with another
system from the northwest, forecast to bring at least 2-3" or more of rain and 50 mph. winds into the northwest for the next few days; heavy
tree-damage from high winds and wet due to foliage still on the deciduous trees. Anna started out south of Baja a few weeks ago or so, traveled
westward and looped around the Hawaiian Islands, to meander to now the Pacific Northwest. Wot a World!
Far's 93E goes, I think it'll have about as much chance as the Bears did against the Patriots this weekend; total washout. Baja travelers, just be
aware of the Big Race next week, so starting the end of this week through middle of next, not a good time to be on the highway with all the chase
vehicles and such... be extra diligent. Buen Viaje!Jack Swords - 10-27-2014 at 07:29 AM
The Baja HaHa cruisers group (170 boats) left San Diego today. Turtle Bay first stop, Bahia Santa Maria second, then Cabo San Lucas. They have never
encountered a hurricane on the Baja HaHa. Might be some apprehension.BooJumMan - 10-27-2014 at 09:04 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by chuckie
80% is not low....
Yes yes... But I was referring to a Cat 1+ to make landfall in Baja.
However 180 hr model does look like it will become a small compact TS - Cat 1 but... Yep I know, it could turn into a Cat 4 and nail Baja... "A random
walk"...
[Edited on 10-27-2014 by BooJumMan]Enrique2012 - 10-27-2014 at 11:39 AM
The BIG race is not next week, but two weeks away - Nov. 12-16. November 13th will be the first day of racing.bajabuddha - 10-27-2014 at 02:49 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Enrique2012
The BIG race is not next week, but two weeks away - Nov. 12-16. November 13th will be the first day of racing.
OOPS!!! My bad, thanks for the correction!wiltonh - 10-27-2014 at 08:55 PM
The tracks looks a lot closer to Baja than they did yesterday.
So . . . the big race being the Newport-Ensenada?chuckie - 10-28-2014 at 07:08 AM
That storm is now at 100%.....Track is going the wrong way, for sure....wiltonh - 10-28-2014 at 08:37 PM
The current listed track cuts across on to the mainland just below Cabo. It would not have to straighten out much and it would be a direct hit again.bajabuddha - 10-28-2014 at 09:54 PM
It'll be like the Bronco's game...... wiltonh - 10-29-2014 at 12:33 PM
I see London, I see France... CAB0'S GONNA SEE OL' VANCE ~STORM WARNING~
bajabuddha - 10-30-2014 at 01:56 PM
Storm center says it'll weaken from Cat-1 to tropical storm, make landfall Tuesday south of Puerto Vallarta (for now) with low wind shear, but heavy
rains possible. Ain't over yet, folks. South Cape should expect high waves, possible heavy rains too. Button up! http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2014/T...
[Edited on 10-30-2014 by bajabuddha]
[Edited on 10-30-2014 by bajabuddha]StuckSucks - 10-30-2014 at 02:58 PM
Was Vance formerly known as 93e?wiltonh - 10-30-2014 at 03:03 PM
This storm has been named Vance.woody with a view - 10-30-2014 at 03:12 PM
yes. also, storms this late in the year are generally a non factor in the disaster category. waters are cooling and for some reason, the Coriolis
effect seems unusually strong.StuckSucks - 10-30-2014 at 03:14 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by woody with a view
and for some reason, the Coriolis effect seems unusually strong.
I'd heard the Earth has broken free of its orbit and is hurtling toward the sun.
[Edited on 10-30-2014 by StuckSucks]woody with a view - 10-30-2014 at 03:24 PM
no, really! us surfers learn this sh!t early on.....
[Edited on 10-30-2014 by woody with a view]chuckie - 10-30-2014 at 03:45 PM
I looked all through the liquor cabinet and couldnt find any Coriolis...Can I substitute Rum? Looks to me as if they are still thinking Vance will
strengthen....bajacalifornian - 10-30-2014 at 03:57 PM
bajabuddha - 10-30-2014 at 04:04 PM
It is supposed to gain Cat 1 strength in the next few days, but the cooler water will drop it back down before it can beef up any more..... THEY SAY.
It will bear watching, if I was down in South Cape i'd buy a few boxes of bottled water just in case.
No Coriolis? Use Cuervo, it's just as cheap and effective. It's martini hour as we speak; peace, out. woody with a view - 10-30-2014 at 04:05 PM
Chuckie, I meant that it wasn't going to be a CAT5 coming up your 6.chuckie - 10-30-2014 at 04:15 PM
10-4 good buddy..and stay away from my 6...The thing to fear is the amount of water it's packing....and where it dumps it.....StuckSucks - 10-30-2014 at 04:40 PM
I always learn something on BN!StuckSucks - 10-31-2014 at 12:53 PM
Appears a little less threatening.
monoloco - 10-31-2014 at 12:54 PM
A bit more rain this season wouldn't be a bad thing.unbob - 10-31-2014 at 03:13 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by monoloco
A bit more rain this season wouldn't be a bad thing.
Sez who? I'm thinking more rain and standing water
means more skeeters and Dengue fever - a very bad thing.monoloco - 10-31-2014 at 03:36 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by unbob
Quote:
Originally posted by monoloco
A bit more rain this season wouldn't be a bad thing.
Sez who? I'm thinking more rain and standing water
means more skeeters and Dengue fever - a very bad thing.
Sez the farmers and ranchers and anyone else who
depends on water pumped from the ground. It's been a very dry few years here and any water we get is appreciated.dorado50 - 10-31-2014 at 06:07 PM
looks to be worse the odile......bummermulegemichael - 10-31-2014 at 06:39 PM
it's not worse than odile; it's apparent...but we don't need no more stinking rain....our main guy in mulege has dengue as does much of the
town....not good, methinks...he says to stay north as we will....just an INVASION of mosquitos with the rainfall....yeah; rain is good...AND...rain is
bad....find the balance...bigtime dengue fever problem in our little town; we will be staying north until the bugs is gone!!!bajabuddha - 11-2-2014 at 09:51 AM
Please pay attention to 5-day forecastsargentodiaz - 11-2-2014 at 10:03 AM
DavidK - is the number of cyclones making landfall in Baja some kind of record?vandenberg - 11-2-2014 at 10:27 AM
Latest on Vance
vandenberg - 11-2-2014 at 10:38 AM
computer models with the promise of more rain
[Edited on 11-2-2014 by vandenberg]
Sweetwater - 11-2-2014 at 11:37 AM
Just one degree centigrade increase in temperature of surface water contains a huge amount of energy if anyone chooses to do the math. I'm hoping that
those waters cool down and don't release that energy into the atmosphere along Baja and the mainland....it could make for a very wet
November....cheers and good fortunes to you.shari - 11-3-2014 at 12:58 PM
I see the outer bands of Vance are now combing the tip so can we begin the onsite reporting today with any rain reports por favor? gracias...I figured
we would be getting a late storm but thought it would be in October...jejeje...perhaps it would be wise to lay in stores and do some storm prep???bajabuddha - 11-3-2014 at 01:10 PM
I just took a look at wunderground, and Vance is at the moment a CAT 2, and there's 95 E right on his back door; looks like a one-two punch. If I
were on South Cape I'd be hitting Costco before the sun sets today. Check out the satellite photo connection on the link.
Doesn't look threatening to central Baja, but ya never know.... Suerte y'all. Hook - 11-3-2014 at 01:15 PM
It's already changed back to going NE. And it appears it is at peak strength right now. Rapid weakening is expected as it is starting to show the
effects of wind shear.
Looks like Sinaloa will bear the brunt of the rainfall.
bajabuddha - 11-3-2014 at 10:49 PM
BUMP.
Vance is turning NW again, and 95E is behind.
East Cape folks,
Head's up. Suerte.
Yogi's still right (even though he was just a catcher).Floatflyer - 11-4-2014 at 07:14 AM
Started raining on East Cape about 6am. Winds maybe 15 +/- mph.
Vance update from accuweather.com
Whale-ista - 11-4-2014 at 08:11 AM
Vance Weakens Slightly, Still a Danger to Mexico
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
November 4, 2014; 8:02 AM ET
More Sharing ServicesShare | Share on facebook Share on twitter Share on linkedin
An overview of the tropics is given in the above AccuWeather.com video.
Hurricane Vance weakened a bit Monday night, but still remains a dangerous storm as it continues on a path toward western Mexico.
Vance intensified to a hurricane Sunday morning as the tropical cyclone passed over the warm waters of the eastern Pacific and in an environment that
lacks disruptive wind shear, which can shred apart tropical systems.
The Mexican states of southern Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, Chihuahua, and Durango remain on alert for impacts from Vance through
Wednesday.
Rainfall has already begun across Sinaloa, Baja California and Nayarit, but the heaviest rain will move onshore Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Rainfall totals of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) will occur across Sinaloa, Nayarit and Durango with amounts exceeding 300 mm (12 inches) in the mountains.
These are the areas most likely to experience flash flooding and mudslides.
Cabo San Lucas, Mazatlan and Puerto Vallarta lie within the zone of greatest risk from Vance.
[Edited on 11-4-2014 by Whale-ista]Hook - 11-4-2014 at 08:37 AM
The Weather Underground analysis of Vance is very different, predicting that it may break apart before reaching land, in the face of significant
shear.
-------------
Conventional and microwave satellite data indicate that Vance is
losing organization due to the effects of 35-40 kt of vertical wind
shear. The cloud pattern has become elongated, and the low-levelcenter is near the southern edge of the convection. The initialintensity is lowered
to 75 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates, and this could be a bit generous.
The initial motion is 025/11. The GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, and Florida state superensemble models forecast Vance to move generally northeastward and make
landfall on the coast of Mexico in 24-36hours. The official forecast does likewise, and the new forecast is similar to that of the previous advisory.
It cannot be ruled out that Vance will completely shear apart before landfall, with the low-level center moving slower toward the northeast than
currently forecast.
The large-scale models forecast even stronger shear over Vance
during the next 24-36 hours, and this should cause rapid weakening.
The new intensity forecast follows this scenario and is in best
agreement with the SHIPS model. Although Vance could weaken to a depression by the time it makes landfall, given the uncertainties in intensity
prediction it remains prudent to have a tropical storm watch for portions of the coast of Mexico.Hook - 11-4-2014 at 10:32 AM
The latest sat and Wundermap imagery shows Vance to be breaking up rapidly.
There's still a lot of moisture associated with it but most of it is headed east.
Light rain and winds <30 kts. is probably all that Baja is going to get. But there ought to be some big rollers heading up the Sea of Cortez by
Wed/Thur. I would imagine San Jose del Cabo is getting them right now.Mexitron - 11-4-2014 at 09:46 PM
This shows the next system again grazing the tip of Baja. But check out the whopper of an extratropical system forming in the Aleutians from the
remnants of Typhoon Nuri:
[Edited on 11-5-2014 by Mexitron]Bob H - 11-4-2014 at 10:47 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Mexitron
This shows the next system again grazing the tip of Baja. But check out the whopper of an extratropical system forming in the Aleutians from the
remnants of Typhoon Nuri:
That's a great link!!Osprey - 11-5-2014 at 07:03 AM
Here on the Tropic of Cancer, we were all witness to a most providential accident of weather >> just as hurricane Vance was about to break
everything again at the cape, a VERY STRONG weather system, a stream of high speed wind and rain, slammed into the storm pushing it south and east and
saving us from damage.
We are on that razor thin line between the crushing weather cell from Hawaii and the outer bands of Vance and watched the steering in real time as we
checked the animated satellite movement of the collision. Whew! Thanks.woody with a view - 11-5-2014 at 07:08 AM
Deadliest Catch crews are getting pounded a little early this year!
