Anonymous - 12-25-2004 at 08:14 PM
Is this topic familiar to you?
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2004-12-25-meteor...
http://www.yubanet.com/artman/publish/article_16549.shtml
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/gif/mea-orbit-big.gif
Thanx, amigo.
It was news last week...
Mike Humfreville - 12-25-2004 at 10:04 PM
that was alarming to read, but it's emerging and for the moment no one was worried. The good news is that it will only take a few days to figure out
the projected trajectory over the next two decades. Since you already have the NASA and JPL web sites, you know what there is to know.
Next week I'll make a few phone calls and try to get further information but most likely it will be available on the JPL sites about the same time I
get it (They don't hunt and peck like have to!).
I will look further next week, maybe make a call or two on Sunday.
Anonymous - 12-25-2004 at 10:22 PM
Thanx, Mike.
And sorry about mis-spelling your name. I should've looked it up first.
H.u.m.f.r.e.v.i.l.l.e. Got it.
I'd go back for an edit, but I posted anaonymous.
Mike Humfreville - 12-26-2004 at 02:08 AM
There are lots of reasons for posting an anonymous.
No Problema
Capt. George - 12-26-2004 at 07:42 AM
Preparation H
Diver - 12-26-2004 at 10:58 AM
60 to 1 odds ?
Sounds worse when the earlier odds were 300 to 1 !
How old will you be in 2029 ?
I'll be almost too old to care, if I live that long!
I hope that year won't coincide with another tequila shortage !
Is anyone monitoring that situation ?
My children will be in their 50's
Mike Humfreville - 12-26-2004 at 01:50 PM
And their children?
Here's an interesting ephemeris simulation. it took several minutes to pass through the years to the possible event. It appears that, rather then
the asteroid hitting us, we would be hitting it.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=2004+MN4
[Edited on 12-26-2004 by Mike Humfreville]
Diver - 12-26-2004 at 02:18 PM
Mike,
Does it make a difference who hits who ?
Is there any thought as to what a 400 meter object would do in the event that it hit either perpendicularly or more glancing blow ?
I married late and my kids will only be in their 30's-40's and their kids unknown. Unfortunately, a big rock will hit sometime and we will not be able
to do anything about it so; or will we ?
I didn't know we in any position to hit it with anything that would have an appreciable effect ? Would we move populations to the other side of the
globe ? Or will we just get advance notice to stop paying all our bills, go to baja, love life and drink all the tequila ?
It only makes a difference philosophically.
Mike Humfreville - 12-26-2004 at 02:38 PM
Can you imagine all those creatures living on asteroid 2004 MN4 running wildly around cursing Earth? They are only more concerned as their life
expectancy is?forever. Thus it only follows that if you live forever there is no need for reproduction. So what the hell are they living for anyway?
Maybe the impact will happen in So Cal and the assumptions of many early explorers of our little globe will be determined to be correct. Baja might
again become an island.
Anonymous - 12-26-2004 at 03:38 PM
"...The applet was implemented using only 2-body methods, and hence should not be used for determining accurate long-term trajectories..."
Like we're going to be inputting navigation data into our personal spaceships.
Hey, the Skycar is almost a reality; it could happen. 
http://www.moller.com/skycar/
"...the M400 Skycar can cruise comfortably at 350+ MPH and achieve up to 28 miles per gallon. No traffic, no red lights, no speeding tickets. Just
quiet direct transportation from point A to point B in a fraction of the time..."
I find stuff like that amusing. Anyway; about that asteroid.
Isn't force = velocity^2, or something like that? How fast is that thing going to be going when it gets here?
Complex Computations
Mike Humfreville - 12-26-2004 at 09:30 PM
Well, most of my buddies were away from phones due to the holidays, but I did an analysis that considered the Earth?s orbit around the sun and
asteroid 2004 mn4?s as well. (You must remember that I'm a writer and a space software processes dude, not a scientist.) In my analysis, I
considered how long and how many miles it took Earth to orbit Sun and the same for our favorite asteroid. I built a computer model that considered
the elliptical orbit of the asteroid versus Earth?s orbit, roughed in the facts that Earth maintains a relatively constant speed, versus the asteroid
which had moments of acceleration and deceleration due to its unique orbit. I considered the influences of other planetary bodies on both Earth and
2004 mn4. I considered the factors of Earths rotation WRT Sun and the asteroid. I considered potentially influential Ephemerides and occultations
and I ran all these data through the best computer I could get my hands on over Christmas. It took several hours of computation before the answer
appeared. It was slow in coming, but that?s what we get on a holiday. The computer was my slowing, 62 year old mind. Actually, we didn?t even have
computers that long ago. At least not by that name.
But I do have a definitive answer to the question ?at what relatively differential speed will the impact occur?? Are you ready?
Here it is. It's a finite number: PDQ.
With this kind of answer to a serious question I suspect the next thing I'll be analyzing will be the padding inside a small locked closet (space?)!
Seriously though, as common sense would dictate, this is nothing to panic about. Within the next week many more computer models will be conducted and
a set of What If's will be developed and JPL and NASA will put their best minds to work to solve just one more problem.
If they free me, I'll keep us posted.
Hope everyone had a great holiday.
Chicken Little said it best...
Mexray - 12-26-2004 at 10:37 PM
..."The sky is falling!"
New Report
Mike Humfreville - 12-27-2004 at 06:50 PM
Good news! Check this out:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/
I would still watch for future updates.
[Edited on 12-28-2004 by Mike Humfreville]
Latest data as of 12/30/2004
Mike Humfreville - 12-30-2004 at 12:34 PM
Check this out:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html