BajaNomad

Peso

vandenberg - 12-1-2014 at 07:33 PM

Peso is closing in on 14 to the dollar, which means that in this year, us who live here permanently with a set income, have actually seen an 6 % income increase.

pauldavidmena - 12-1-2014 at 07:44 PM

I suppose it also means that those of us visiting from the U.S. (i.e. Baja wannabees like me) will feel like we're getting more for our dollar. :cool:

DENNIS - 12-1-2014 at 08:14 PM



This also means that all imported goods, many we like to buy from Costco etc., will have a floor price increase to reflect the increase in Peso expenditure for the Stores in Mexico.

We really can't win with this one. More than likely, the future will bring an adjustment in the money market, but what has gone up, prices, won't come down.
Win Win for the retailer.

bajabuddha - 12-1-2014 at 10:18 PM

If you've lived in Baja for any amount of time, you'll also see every time the Peso is devalued, the little stickers on the items you buy are replaced by a slightly higher number.

I've seen much higher increases, huge increments, and sometimes 4 and 5 'tag' increases; tempting for flicking off the newer replacements (slacker stock-employees wouldn't remove the older ones), and I never did; but have seen them thicker than the dust of windstorms on the tops of cans.

Don't for a minute think you're getting more bang for your buck. You are losing, because Mexico is losing too... the locals also have to pay the increased prices for stock, but THEIR WAGES ARE NOT INCREASING.

Ergo; notice anything familiar here, that is if you have lived in Baja for a while at least (10 years mas o meno)? Things getting worse, not better? No progress in the masses, other than the 'Haves' getting more? More crime, more desperation? I'm not trying to be a 'doom-sayer' here, just pointing out a STABILE PESO IS A GOOD PESO. You aren't getting squat for your exchange rate. You'll pay the same, and the masses, i.e. the locals, will pay too.... and blame you for it. I hate to see the peso deflate; so much easier on the earth when Balance occurs, que no?

grizzlyfsh95 - 12-2-2014 at 09:43 AM

With the enormous US Fed pumping, I am sure that most world currency s will eventually be affected. This is a macro problem and the cause and effect are sometimes hard to reconcile. Inflation caused by the pumping and offshore manufacturing also contribute to overall instability.

Whale-ista - 12-2-2014 at 11:15 AM

Agree with these "a s s e s s m e n t s" : Unexpected peso declines may look like a "raise" for those with US$, but that is usually more than offset by price increases, or worse: increases in thefts and other illegal activities, declines in Baja business investment, and fewer opportunities for locals, to name just a few.

I've watched the peso rise/fall throughout my life, as my family has worked, owned property, and/or lived in Baja, starting before I was born. Our crossborder economies are more interconnected than ever, and currency fluctuations impact everyone and have odd ways of balancing out

At various time I've relied on paychecks based on pesos, or combinations of US$ and pesos. Based on all that: I agree- a stable economy, in both the US & MX, is best for all involved.

PS-- Ha! So "m a s s e s" => "mburros"? And "a s s e s s m e n t s" => burroessments?

David K - 12-2-2014 at 11:24 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Whale-ista  
Agree with these "a s s e s s m e n t s" : Unexpected peso declines may look like a "raise" for those with US$, but that is usually more than offset by price increases, or worse: increases in thefts and other illegal activities, declines in Baja business investment, and fewer opportunities for locals, to name just a few.

I've watched the peso rise/fall throughout my life, as my family has worked, owned property, and/or lived in Baja, starting before I was born. Our crossborder economies are more interconnected than ever, and currency fluctuations impact everyone and have odd ways of balancing out

At various time I've relied on paychecks based on pesos, or combinations of US$ and pesos. Based on all that: I agree- a stable economy, in both the US & MX, is best for all involved.

PS-- Ha! So "m a s s e s" => "mburros"? And "a s s e s s m e n t s" => burroessments?


Oh boy, Doug has his hands full... any word that has a s s as part of the word gets those three letters converted to burro! LOL The new program still needs fine tuning or just take away the auto correct for that three letter word that means donkey!??

rts551 - 12-4-2014 at 12:31 PM

over 14 now. the gas hike in Jan should be a big one.

woody with a view - 12-4-2014 at 04:27 PM

something to think about between fish tacos and pacificos.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/prepare-for-a-currency-war--no...

At the end of October, the Bank of Japan announced that it would increase its quantitative easing program. In an unexpected move, the bank increased its purchases of Japanese government bonds to grow its monetary base to 80 trillion yen (about $730 billion) per year up from 60-70 trillion yen.

Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, believes that this was a dangerous move that could trigger a round of currency wars. “Domestic demand is weak in advanced economies, and the only way to grow the economy is to weaken currency in order to boost net exports,” he says. Because trade balance is a zero sum game, he explains, countries have to compete for a larger share of the market by continuing to lower their currencies. Roubini predicts that this will lead to a full-out currency war.

Roubini says that reactions to Japan’s increase in QE can already be seen throughout Asia. “From Korea to Malaysia to Thailand…even the Central Bank of China has recently cut rates to avoid the strengthening of its currency.” While China is not outrightly participating in QE, the central bank recently moved to loosen monetary policy by reportedly lending the state-owned China Development Bank one trillion yuan (over $160 billion). On November 6, the Chinese central bank confirmed that it had lent an additional 769.5 yuan to commercial banks.

Currency war contagion

The contagion of lowering currency value will hit Europe next, says Roubini. “The first to be hurt by a weak yen [will be] Germany and the Eurozone so the ECB will have to do quantitative easing,” he says. “The Swiss National Bank, the Norwegians and the Central Europeans” will have to follow.

All of this easing would imply that the only currency increasing in value will be the U.S. dollar, leading to a currency shock stateside. Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve plan on increasing rates towards the middle of 2015, “but if the rest of the world growth disappoints…and the dollar keeps appreciating, at some point those facts are going to weaken U.S. growth and inflation and weaken U.S. competitiveness.” This, Roubini believes, will force the Fed to delay hiking rates.

The price of gold

Even with currency wars, gold will remain weak, says Roubini. “For now the Fed is not easing, and the dollar is strengthening,” he says. Gold is a hedge against inflation, but Roubini believes there are many assets now that are better and that can provide an income, like real estate, equities and credit. Gold can only provide capital gains. “Real rates are going to go higher so all of the main factors regarding gold indicate that gold will go down.” He says the rate will near $1000 per ounce by the end of 2015. It currently hovers at around $1200 per ounce.

Hook - 12-4-2014 at 06:33 PM

Quote: Originally posted by bajabuddha  
If you've lived in Baja for any amount of time, you'll also see every time the Peso is devalued, the little stickers on the items you buy are replaced by a slightly higher number.

I've seen much higher increases, huge increments, and sometimes 4 and 5 'tag' increases; tempting for flicking off the newer replacements (slacker stock-employees wouldn't remove the older ones), and I never did; but have seen them thicker than the dust of windstorms on the tops of cans.

Don't for a minute think you're getting more bang for your buck. You are losing, because Mexico is losing too... the locals also have to pay the increased prices for stock, but THEIR WAGES ARE NOT INCREASING.

Ergo; notice anything familiar here, that is if you have lived in Baja for a while at least (10 years mas o meno)? Things getting worse, not better? No progress in the mburros, other than the 'Haves' getting more? More crime, more desperation? I'm not trying to be a 'doom-sayer' here, just pointing out a STABILE PESO IS A GOOD PESO. You aren't getting squat for your exchange rate. You'll pay the same, and the mburros, i.e. the locals, will pay too.... and blame you for it. I hate to see the peso deflate; so much easier on the earth when Balance occurs, que no?


Nonsense.

There are many retail items and services down here that cant adjust prices as fast as the dollar has appreciated. Fuels (which can only be adjusted once a month), labor, restaurants (which would have to reprint menus), internally produced foodstuffs, our phone/internet bills, our water bills, etc.

A large pizza at the best pizza place in town is still 130 pesos, same as it has been for about a year. Under ten dollars for a large pizza with three toppings AND being able to sit down and eat it while listening to a live band is very welcome. And a 12 oz Chope Obscura tap beer for 20 pesos on the side means the wife and I can have pizza, beer and entertainment for under 15.00 US. Well, if I can keep it to two beers. Not a problem for her; I'm a different story.

And anything that has been priced on sale and publicized will have to remain at that price for the sales period. This can be 1-2 weeks with some stores.

In the meantime, we can keep hitting an ATM on a daily basis, while the dollar remains high and convert them into goods. We can even stock up on things at times like these.

But not pizza. It's not easy to stock up on freshly made pizza.

And if we are left holding pesos while the value of the dollar drifts downward, we are still ahead as we bought these pesos for less dollars earlier.

Appears I got 13.85 today. :cool:

I am hearing some grumbling from the Canucks around town, though. They are getting about 12 to the Canadian dollar.

Anyway, I think Roubini has got it right.

El Matador - 12-4-2014 at 07:46 PM

Contrary to the belief of many prices don't change at many places in Mx with the movement in the peso. Are restaurants suppose to go to the printer and get new menus every week ?

woody with a view - 12-4-2014 at 08:00 PM

no, they break out those little white steekers and place them over the prices, then chisel in the new price.

pretty simple, really.

rhintransit - 12-4-2014 at 09:48 PM

Netted 13.97 at the ATM today. Also bought a RT ticket, La Paz/Guadalajara for 1249 pesos. Since I paid in pesos on a Mexican Visa card, that works out to less than 90US.


[Edited on 12-5-2014 by rhintransit]

bajabuddha - 12-4-2014 at 10:03 PM

Hook, i'm not talking about the week or two before last... back during the last big inflationary time (late '90's, mas o meno?) there were literally 4 - 5 price labels overlapping every item in stores, and as woody said, restaurants would have 'leetle white steekers' 3- deep. They HAVE to make the money back they at least paid for the item in the first place.

Your money is NOT growing., and Mexicanos' are shrinking.

Canucks ALWAYS biatch about the exchange rates.

The rate increase this season is a lttle bit higher than the last 3 - 4 years, but not as drastic as in years past. It's bigger than all of us; ya spends yer money, ya takes yer chances. If you have to ask, you can't afford it. All my sympathies are with the locals; La Gente. They have it rougher than our own who can't afford to THINK about a Baja vacation.

These two are non-negotiable.

Sweetwater - 12-5-2014 at 09:55 AM

Wow, I just opened up my exchange rate site and it shows 14.3 p/ USD as of this morning. The drop in oil and energy pricing is hitting Mexico and its currency as hard as it's hitting Russia and the ruble. Canada is now facing some repercussions as well since so much of their economy now revolves around oil production. That same site shows $1.14 USD/ Loonie

rts551 - 12-5-2014 at 11:30 AM

14.4 now.. and I saw gas this morning at the PILOT was 2.44 for regular.

Whale-ista - 12-5-2014 at 01:33 PM

As oil gets cheaper, the ripple effect in MX peso and other currencies ripples outward. (good way to put Putin and Russia in a difficult spot)

However, it also dampens investment in solar/wind energy.


New Yorker article

chippy - 12-5-2014 at 04:26 PM

Good time to buy big ticket items like a new truck:light:.

unbob - 12-6-2014 at 09:01 AM

Quote: Originally posted by rts551  
14.4 now.. and I saw gas this morning at the PILOT was 2.44 for regular.
Under $2 now in OKC.