[Edited on 12-6-2014 by Gulliver]Mexitron - 12-6-2014 at 08:12 AM
Hmmm, then what fueled this season's fertile hurricane season---there wasn't an El Nino last year. Not to dismiss the research, just that weather is
the haunting ground of chaos theory and this is 'another' pattern that's been found; also, this year's El Nino is pretty weak so that doesn't
(necessarily) correlate with a lot of heat being transferred to next year's hurricane season.woody with a view - 12-6-2014 at 08:18 AM
over the last 30 years of my observations regarding all things East Pac Hurricanes the correlation between El Nino/Hurricanes has been poor hurricane
generation during El Nino years.
i'm speaking from the aspect of surfing the west coast, not direct impacts of storms in Baja. I like the "chaos theory" answer!
Say what?
Howard - 12-6-2014 at 08:26 AM
Woody, could you please explain what you said in English? monoloco - 12-6-2014 at 08:41 AM
Hmmm, then what fueled this season's fertile hurricane season---there wasn't an El Nino last year. Not to dismiss the research, just that weather is
the haunting ground of chaos theory and this is 'another' pattern that's been found; also, this year's El Nino is pretty weak so that doesn't
(necessarily) correlate with a lot of heat being transferred to next year's hurricane season.
Officially, we
weren't in an El Niņo, but locally, sea surface temperatures have been well above normal for the last year.BooJumMan - 12-6-2014 at 02:04 PM
I think we are generally going back to an El Nino phase for the next few years... Seems like it definitely cycles every 3-5 years. bajabuddha - 12-6-2014 at 02:27 PM
From my own learning of what El Niņos or La Niņas bring, it's an ''all bets are off'' proposition of 'normal' patterns. You can end up with one area
in devastating floods, another with scortching drought (sound familiar?) and the next go-around, just the opposite in the same places. It alters
global climate, and chaos mathematics reign. woody with a view - 12-6-2014 at 03:23 PM
during periods of El Nino the winter storms are severe, or above normal whatever normal is. during El Nino summers hurricanes in the Ea. Pac are not
nearly as numerous. go back and look at the years before/after El Nino's at the hurricane record.
MAYBE it was just that the El Nino of '83/84 was so epic that summer sucked in comparison? Dec 10 1983, Solo Salsipuedes!
31 years ago this week - DAMN!!!
woody with a view - 12-6-2014 at 03:30 PM
6 months out of high school! The shark wouldn't bite, the bee wouldn't sting, and Bugs Bunny tip-toed through the brush unnoticed!
[Edited on 12-6-2014 by woody with a view]Whale-ista - 12-6-2014 at 04:58 PM
Ahh, thanks for the reminders. I remember those early-80s winters- seems we had back to back El Niņo years. Drove the VW van south in January '85 to
see whales, canoe on top- it acted like a sail.
We were battling strong winds on MX 1 that nearly blew us off the road, and wind+hi tides in the lagoons.
Don't recall hurricanes, but do recall wild winter storms that dumped a lot of rain up north, then generated hi tides and big surf, while blowing hard
all the way down the peninsula. bajabuddha - 12-6-2014 at 05:00 PM
I've been fascinated ever since, and because of the '83-4 event. I was river guiding on the Colorado Plateau during those years, and man, what a
ride! We were seeing and running flows no one else had for 50 years or more; all 'old-tymer-rumors' and stories, and I still have a few flicks of 'em
on my walls to this day. The winter of '82-3 was dry as a popcorn fart until March-ish of '83, then it started to rain, and didn't stop until June...
with snow in the mountains. People were still skiing in the Wasatch Range in July of that year. In El Niņo events since, no runoff... it's all a
roll of the dice... but somebody somewhere is going to get a large influx of abnormal conditions.
Ahhh.... Westwater Canyon (Colo. River, UT/CO border), put-in to take-out in 2 hours, 48 minutes, with a 15 minute have-a-beer-stop-shaking-break.
Cataract Canyon, 78,000 CFS. FLLLUUSSSHHHHH.... Mexitron - 12-6-2014 at 05:01 PM
Love that pic Woody, man how stoked you must have been!Mexitron - 12-6-2014 at 05:05 PM
From my own learning of what El Niņos or La Niņas bring, it's an ''all bets are off'' proposition of 'normal' patterns. You can end up with one area
in devastating floods, another with scortching drought (sound familiar?) and the next go-around, just the opposite in the same places. It alters
global climate, and chaos mathematics reign.
From what I've read lately there seems to be only a correlation between higher rainfall and El Nino if the El Nino is a strong one like '83---there's
been 6 events like that in the last 100 yrs or so and 5 of them had banner precipitation. So our fairly weak El Nino this year could either way.
Still hoping for a bunch of rain though!woody with a view - 12-6-2014 at 05:43 PM
Love that pic Woody, man how stoked you must have been!
Thanks, brother! Where does the time go?
Yeah.....went out body womping last week at some nice South Laguna shorebreak though---I could still pull it off gettin' slammed in those sand
barrels!Sweetwater - 12-6-2014 at 05:49 PM
That stirred my interest....'83-'84 were spectacular ski years with major powder storms every few days. The mountains locally received 2.5 times their
normal snow pack and in the spring of '83 a late warm up resulted in some pretty significant flooding.
This year looked like it might be something when we got an early cold spell with some precip.....but.....nothing but mild now, a bit of snow in the
mountains, certainly not what's normal or needed. I sat outside and read with today's high of 58F and a nice sunny day.
