Cliffy - 5-19-2015 at 11:35 AM
Relief Coming for Drought-Ravaged California?
After two long years of forecasts, calculations, and waiting, it’s finally happening…
The global weather event called El Niño is back.
This happens every few years, when the waters in the Pacific Ocean, primarily off the coast of South America, become warmer. This heats the air above
the ocean and disrupts the normal west-to-east flow of Pacific winds. In turn, this shifts the usual areas of cloud formation, causing unusual
fluctuations in rainfall and temperatures.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology recently joined the U.S. Climate Prediction Center and the Japan Meteorological Agency in saying that Pacific
Ocean temperatures have risen enough to trigger the effect.
They also agree that – while it could bring relief to certain regions like drought-crippled California – it’s going to wreak havoc worldwide…
Forecasters Unite Behind “Super El Niño”
The effects of an El Niño can be far-reaching and varied. In 1982, for example, a larger-than-usual El Niño caused droughts in some places, widespread
flooding in others, and almost gave the United States a year without a winter.
The last El Niño in 2010 caused droughts in India and Australia.
The common denominator is widespread chaos. Even small El Niños can upend the usual climate patterns enough to cause serious damage and even death.
They’re also notoriously tough to predict.
Both the U.S. and Japanese authorities started by saying that this year’s El Niño would be mild. In fact, the Japanese even said that the effect had
already happened, faded away, and then returned!
Australia veered in the opposite direction, with its head of climate modeling, David Jones, stating, “This will be a substantial event.”
Last Thursday, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center changed its mind and upgraded the forecast, too, saying the El Niño will be stronger this year than
it originally thought.
If they’re right, look out!
Scientists fear that a strong El Niño, combined with ocean temperatures that are already warming from global climate change, could trigger a “Super El
Niño.”
What does this mean?
Relief for California?
For California, mired in a four-year drought that’s one of the worst in its history, the prospect of an “El Niño” is music to residents’ ears, given
that these events mostly bring extensive rainfall.
But in its current parched condition, it’s also a doubled-edged sword.
On the one hand, the state desperately needs the rain, and El Niño could break up the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge that Wall Street Daily Founder,
Robert Williams, told you about last year. But too much rain all at once could trigger other disasters like flooding, landslides, and crop
destruction.
If this year’s El Niño is indeed an especially heavy one, much of the world would experience highly unusual weather events.
In addition to possible drought relief in California, other areas like South America could see much heavier rainfall than normal. And while it would
prove priceless in refilling reservoirs, the downsides are serious.
Conversely, places like Australia and much of Asia are prone to drought in El Niño conditions.
So what’s the prognosis?
And the Forecast Is…
While there are no guarantees, all signs point to havoc.
Economically, crops and even mining would be affected in many areas. And while there’s little chance of a global food shortage, food prices could
fluctuate wildly. Localized areas without the resources to import large quantities of food could endure terrible results.
Indeed, cocoa futures are already rising, as traders anticipate smaller-than-normal yields in the main cocoa-growing areas of western Africa.
Bottom line: El Niño events are always unpredictable and different across the world. Higher global temperatures could exacerbate El Niño effects in
some areas, but mute it or even change things entirely in others. And, of course, as with all weather prognosticators, the forecasts could turn out to
be completely wrong!
However, with the tools available to climatologists becoming more sophisticated every year, the prospect of everyone being completely wrong is highly
doubtful. It’s time for the world to buckle up, because El Niño is coming.
StuckSucks - 5-19-2015 at 12:33 PM
We've been hearing "El Niño is Coming!" for years. I hate to be skeptical, but I'll believe it when I'm up to here in rain.
bajabuddha - 5-19-2015 at 12:54 PM
As was posted in last year's thread about El Niños, when it does happen, all bets are off on the results of who-gets-what-where. It causes a
semi-global anomaly that upsets all 'normal' patterns; as stated above, some places will get wetter, some drier than usual.
The only thing i'd speculate on is the sub-equatorial waters are warmer than usual, like last year... which can lead to more tropical storms and
hurricanes, like last year. It was brought up then, and I think it should be brought up now; the people living in Baja Sur should NOW be stocking
up on bottled water, canned goods, and maybe a little plywood, and whatever needs they didn't do for last year's storms. Better to have and not need,
than need and not have.
There was a recent article (sorry, I don't have a reference) about the western Pacific area already having a record number (I believe it was 5) of
named storms/hurricanes so far for this early in the year.