Tis the season - Dual Hurricanes: Andres & Blanca

Quote: Originally posted by Udo

Specially the fishin!

Don't get too excited. These are way NW of where the usual storms develop. I trust eebmike.com for my forecast info this time of year. Hard to argue with in motion sat loops.


[Edited on 5-26-2015 by Russ]

It's out there and comeing are way. All in good time.

RED X

Woopie!

Get your hurricane shutters and security blankets out.

weather is great today!!!
90f with a 3mph breeze
at night it's about 70f
pool is 80f

I sent "the boys" out on Monday with a guide...a pretty good day
the fish died by the boat...we ate him yesterday for lunch
actually marlin is really good...I was surprised

some of you guys from the north leave way too early

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

They are stacking up

Quote: Originally posted by bajabuddha

El Niño strikes again; warmer-than-usual water = all-bets-are-off for east cape and Baja Sur..... again. Be wise, stock up now.

Quote: Originally posted by Bajahowodd

Quote: Originally posted by bajabuddha   El Niño strikes again; warmer-than-usual water = all-bets-are-off for east cape and Baja Sur..... again. Be wise, stock up now. But, for California alta, maybe an El Nino event will be a godsend.

Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666

all this talk about models and predictions by govt scientists,... a pack of lies! the words of charlatans! don't believe it one bit!

Real Government scientist don't lie because they aren't allowed to disclose what they are doing to the public. Did they inform us about the A-bomb development before the first one was dropped on Hiroshima?

Quote: Originally posted by shari

the swell is starting to build here on the central Pacside in Asuncion...tomorrow will be thundering! Summer like days...even got the pool filled...in MAY! crazy chit

OH OH...another "storm" comin ! - Hurricane Andres

YIKES !!

Interesting historicaly discussion by Dr. Jeff Masters this AM about H. Andres....

Hurricane Andres became only the fifth major May hurricane on record in the Northeast Pacific on Sunday, when it intensified into a 125 mph Category 3 storm in the waters about 800 miles southwest of the tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula. Its unexpected intensification continued Sunday evening, with Andres reaching Category 4 strength with 140 mph winds at 11 pm EDT. According to the database of Eastern Pacific storms maintained by NOAA's Office for Coastal Management, Andres' emergence as a major hurricane at longitude 118.8°W marks the farthest west a major hurricane has been in the Northeast Pacific in May in the 45 years since accurate satellite records began in 1970, and comes well before the usual July 19 formation date of the first major hurricane of the Northeast Pacific hurricane season. This unusually early and far westerly intensification was made possible, in part, by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that are very warm, at least 2°F (1.1°C) above average--thanks in large part to the intensifying moderate-strength El Niño event underway in the Eastern Pacific. The other May major hurricanes were Adolph (2001), Alma (2002), Bud (2012), and Amanda (2014). The strongest was Hurricane Amanda, which peaked as a top-end Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds on May 25, 2014. The earliest Category 5 storm on record in the Eastern Pacific was Hurricane Ava of 1973, which peaked at 160 mph winds on June 6, 1973. Both years (2014 and 1973) had ocean temperatures that were unusually warm along the path of these intense hurricanes: at least 0.4°C above average. Andres will stay well out to sea and not affect any land areas.

Quote: Originally posted by captkw

Those ufo folks have been a'warning us that we have been screwing up this chunk of spinning molten rock fast...crazy,,crazy weather to say the least !! Hang on to your hats,,I think in the next year we will ALL see some crazy stuff weatherwise!!!

Quote: Originally posted by StuckSucks

Depending upon the model you look at, the remnants of Andres MAY hit northern Baja/SoCal this coming weekend with either a little rain or torrential rains. IF the heavens open up, that could make for an interesting Baja 500. That said, I'm bringing an EZ-Up to keep the sun off my head.

Quote: Originally posted by Bajahowodd

Quote: Originally posted by bajabuddha   El Niño strikes again; warmer-than-usual water = all-bets-are-off for east cape and Baja Sur..... again. Be wise, stock up now. But, for California alta, maybe an El Nino event will be a godsend.

Quote: Originally posted by 4Cata

So, this storm will be named Caramba???

Blanca....

Quote: Originally posted by chuckie

Blanca....

Blanca

Blanca Path....pretty consistent....

https://www.windyty.com/?14.897,-105.051,7



Forecast -- Sunday at noon


[Edited on 6-3-2015 by Russ]

Visual forecast...

Blanca has begun a weakening process and watchers are unsure of the cause. But she has been downgraded to a Cat 3, without ever having approached Cat 5 status.

MOST models are now showing a more westerly course that would avoid a direct impact on Cabo. This would also take it over cooler water much faster. But one still shows a pretty direct hit and one actually has it entering the Sea without making land, only to hit the mainland somewhere near Topolobampo.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2015/H...




[Edited on 6-4-2015 by Hook]

Quote: Originally posted by shari

late this afternoon, the outer bands started drifting in from Hurricane Andres who passed us by thank goodness...some pretty dark clouds offshore.

I like this model better. Track moving more West and decreasing in strength

US consulate TJ) warning posted on Talk Baja

We'll see ...

The interesting thing about Blanca is it will move alot of warm water north very early in the season. We will see how that plays out.

May be Bring up some Tuna or some thing???

Blanca was downgraded to Category 2 today but...

Not so nice forecast

Quote: Originally posted by Hook

No way it ever becomes anything but a Cat 2-3, and that will be short-lived. I see TS category IF it even makes Baja. Poor environment, dead ahead, for Blanca.

NOAA link

Quote: Originally posted by chuckie

Yeah I know, we'll be listening to dissertations from guys like Wodd on dunkin donuts next.....

Go to your room! And leave me alone. Fixation??

Quote: Originally posted by Bajahowodd

Quote: Originally posted by chuckie   Yeah I know, we'll be listening to dissertations from guys like Wodd on dunkin donuts next..... Go to your room! And leave me alone. Fixation??

Howie, the only fixation is you on yourself.

Go to YOUR room, and leave the rest of us alone.

HURRICANE BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
900 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

...BLANCA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 108.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 108.3 West. Blanca is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the north-
northwest is forecast by Saturday evening. On the forecast track,
the center of Blanca will approach the southern Baja California
peninsula on Sunday.

Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. No
significant change in strength is expected through Saturday.
Weakening is forecast Saturday night and Sunday, and Blanca should
weaken to a tropical storm as it approaches the southern Baja
California peninsula.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by Sunday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, the Pacific coast of the Baja California
peninsula, and the southern Gulf of California. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.



HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
900 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

Blanca appears to have become a little better organized during the
past few hours. The eye does not look quite as ragged although it
is becoming more cloud filled. Deep convection is doing a better
job of wrapping around the eye, but there is still some asymmetry
with very intense convection occurring within the southeastern
quadrant. As a result, Dvorak estimates have risen to T5.5/102 kt
from TAFB and T5.0/90 kt from SAB. However, since the Hurricane
Hunters found Blanca's intensity to be on the low end of the earlier
satellite estimates, the maximum winds are conservatively raised to
85 kt on this advisory.

The initial motion remains northwestward, or 315/9 kt. Mid-level
high pressure over northern Mexico should keep Blanca moving
northwestward in the short term, but the hurricane is forecast to
turn north-northwestward in 24 hours due to a shortwave trough
approaching from the west. This north-northwestward motion should
then continue until dissipation, bringing Blanca near or over the
southern Baja California peninsula in 48-72 hours. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered, with varying speeds being the
main issue, and the official track forecast is near the various
multi-model consensus models.

If Blanca is going to strengthen any further, it probably only has
another 24 hours to do so while vertical shear is low and sea
surface temperatures are over 26C. After 24 hours, a more hostile
environment should lead to fairly quick weakening, with Blanca
becoming a tropical storm between 36-48 hours while it approaches
the southern Baja California peninsula. The cyclone is then
expected to become a tropical depression by day 3 and dissipate
over the high terrain of the Baja California peninsula between days
4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the SHIPS
and LGEM models and is not much different from the previous
forecast.

Based on the latest forecast, a tropical storm warning would likely
be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula
Saturday morning.

Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.1N 108.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.1N 109.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 20.1N 110.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 21.9N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 25.5N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 28.4N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

these little balls are deceiving...lots of water coming
last time the eye was located in the middle of Baja we got a lot of water...

today the prediction has increased from 1.5 inches to 2.5 inches
the wind wont be too bad but the water will be muddy

that's just a guess...