BajaNomad - PESO GOING TO 17

PESO GOING TO 17

lizard lips - 8-4-2015 at 04:26 PM

Just talked to several of my friends, some who own casa de cambios, and they all said they expect the peso to raise to 17 by next week.

If you have some payments in pesos to be made wait to change your dollars until next week.

MMc - 8-4-2015 at 04:30 PM

Thanks, I have a some I'll change back tomorrow and keep the cash.

Bob and Susan - 8-4-2015 at 05:40 PM

not much of a prediction...
the internet rate today was 16.29
going up

remember the cambio rate is one dollar for 15.6 pesos
most people will never get the internet rate

gnukid - 8-4-2015 at 08:26 PM

Considering many visitors are smart retirees with brokerage accounts that refund intl and atm charges it seems most everyone can get the best rates. Charles schwab atm card is giving the highest rate possible per day with no fee and many others do too but cambios give low rates and BOA atm charges extra fees and atm fees that make it a poor choice.

It's important to be sensitive to Mexicans who are paying the other end, and perhaps give back some of the gain.

[Edited on 8-5-2015 by gnukid]

bajabuddha - 8-4-2015 at 10:14 PM

Jayzus wept on the cross....... if it ain't Climate Change, GMO's, or DK's week-long fifteen-page trip to Baja, it's counting pesos, AGAIN.

AND AGAIN.

Pappy used to say, "you can either spend 'em or count 'em". So, here we go again with yet another thread (the last one isn't even cold yet) about how to save two dollars and seventy seven cents by doing it ''this way'' instead of ''that way''.

I believe a sage old Baja vet who's been going down and living there full-time since the 1950's that calls it all "chump-change"..... I believe he was and is correct. Just in my short 20 years I watched the peso devalue about the same amount every year, the sticker price in the grocery store go up the same rate, and Nomania predictably try to predict the predictable.

You guys are funny. :bounce:

chuckie - 8-5-2015 at 06:58 AM

The rate of exchange on the peso is like a lot of other things in Mexico. Nothing you can do about except leave if you cant live with it. It never made much difference to me, as far as life style. I have watched the whole picture change from going to Mexico to save money, to saving money to go to Mexico (for many folks).

Hook - 8-5-2015 at 07:01 AM

So, ignore these threads, and leave us peso counters alone.

Maybe, just maybe, you and Chuckie (who finds fault with EVERYTHING these days) dont move large amounts of pesos, the way some of us do.

Oh yeah, and some of us actually LIVE down here. It makes a difference to US.

chuckie - 8-5-2015 at 07:10 AM

Ok Hook, Your right, I really don't give a chit, and should just ignore you penny P-nchers....I'm happy that you live in Sonora (and not Baja)...

[Edited on 8-5-2015 by chuckie]

Hook - 8-5-2015 at 08:14 AM

Soulpatch, are you using one of the exchange services like xe.com to do exchanges? I guess I am asking if you are using a service where you can have money transferred from dollars in your US account, converted to pesos and then deposited into your Mexican bank account, electronically.

I'm all ears, if you are. It would be easier to move even larger sums, IF it is reasonable.

I am hoping to put the strengthening dollar to my advantage in the next week or two. I got a written estimate from a Toyo tire dealer down here for some all-terrain tires for the Jeep, last week. I watched the girl figure the estimate on a calculator and there was no exchange rate figured into it. So, if the estimate is honored and the dollar hits 17/1, I could save somewhere around 5% on a purchase of about 9000 pesos.

BTW, many of us over here have noticed that buying tires in Mexico has now gotten almost exactly the same price as what they are charging in the US. There is no need to be paying duty at the border on tires you bring down. My Toyos will be almost exactly the same price as what I could find, online, in the US.

Sadly, ATV tires are still real expensive down here. They are worth moving across the border and paying the duty.

bajabuddha - 8-5-2015 at 08:51 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Hook

So, ignore these threads, and leave us peso counters alone.

Maybe, just maybe, you and Chuckie (who finds fault with EVERYTHING these days) dont move large amounts of pesos, the way some of us do.

Oh yeah, and some of us actually LIVE down here. It makes a difference to US.

Sure is an "US and THEM" mentality, hook. Some of US lived half the year or more at a time, not a 2-week camping trip. I didn't run a business down there, but had to make my $$ last and stretch, so it definitely made a difference to US too.

Hope your thumbs don't get blisters. Makes them pennies hard to pick up.

Btw, here's some more reading material for you: last post was 4 days ago...
http://forums.bajanomad.com/viewthread.php?tid=79592&pag...

[Edited on 8-5-2015 by bajabuddha]

chuckie - 8-5-2015 at 09:26 AM

We shouldnt be too hard on Hook ....5% saving on 9000 pesos is serious money....Like 30 bucks? If he buys a set of tires a day, that adds up, man...For the record. like anybody cares, my comments over the years on this subject have almost always been on ATM transaction charges being "chump change"....They are....For a person like Soul Patch, in business in Mexico, the exchange rate IS important....For the rest of us dilettante playpersons, live with it....

SFandH - 8-5-2015 at 09:33 AM

Here's the way I look at it. For several years recently the peso was at 12.5 per dollar. Now, let's say it's 16.

16 - 12.5 = 3.5

3.5 / 12.5 * 100 = 28%

So if you have dollars and are spending pesos that's like a 28% increase in your money. Very nice, indeed. Try to get that from AAA bond dividends. And sure, some items in Mexico go up with the dollar but not the staples, and certainly not 28%. You can get a lot more beans, rice, tomatoes, onions, chilies, and tortillas for a buck these days. However I think I've seen a 12 pack of Tecate Light go from 127 to 145 pesos lately.

Also, I have a Fidelity ATM card. They reimburse ALL ATM fees.

P.S. There's a good chance my arithmetic is screwed up, let me know.

[Edited on 8-5-2015 by SFandH]

Hook - 8-5-2015 at 09:38 AM

And the next post will be four days from now, especially if it hits 17/1. Deal with it.

BTW, my example just involved my latest semi-large purchase. We exchange probably 1500.00US/month. That's over 1500 pesos per month, compared to 16/1. We pay tuition for students we sponsor and that's in pesos. A fixed amount.

Let me put it in terms you guys can understand. That's a fill up per month in a full sized pickup.

Sweetwater - 8-5-2015 at 09:54 AM

Well folks, another deteriorating thread....

But the salient numbers remain, Mexico depends on energy production, just like Canada (who are now just a month away from an official recession). And the USDollar continues to strengthen, even more when interest rates get raised. So, reality does not go away if you don't like it.....

Nat Gas Futr 2.831 0.019 0.68% 12:28
Brent Crude Fut 49.28 -0.71 -1.42% 12:28
WTI Crude Futr 45.09 -0.65 -1.42% 12:28

The situation is serious for Mexico's short and long term stability, narco-terrorists and for those folks who make and spend their money in Pesos...

USD-MXN 16.385 0.086 0.53%

The past year has seen a 20% change in valuation and those are not pennies, IMHO.

lizard lips - 8-5-2015 at 10:15 AM

If I knew this post was going to pee off so many I would have kept it to myself but I am very careful with my exchanges and have for the last 28 years living here. I know I have saved several thousands of dollars watching my exchanges very closely so I am glad that some of you have responded positively.

I have a son in medical school and the tuition costs are not like they are in the US but I have to pay for the next semester soon. What my friends at the casa de cambio told me is not etched in stone, nothing is in Mexico, but if the peso does devaluate in the coming days I will save some dollars so thats a good thing. I don't have control of the peso but I do have control of how I can save a few bucks and thats all I'm interested in.

durrelllrobert - 8-5-2015 at 10:19 AM

My housekeeper and my gardner have both told me that they need raises because the cost of food has gone up. My reply is that I have to pay those higher prices too and nobody has given me a raise. However, in all honesty, with the peso at 16 to 1 those higher cost have not affected me at all.

bajabuddha - 8-5-2015 at 11:42 AM

After introspection, I openly apologize for lighting the toilet paper to this thread in the first place. It truly isn't any of my business, sorry for the Chit Storm, and that goes for anyone dragged in surreptitiously who ended up in the stew.

Y'all counters, keep accounting. Cha-ching! Cada loco con sú tema. :smug:

JoeJustJoe - 8-5-2015 at 12:53 PM

If any of you can predict the direction of the peso, then you should join "Forex" and play the currency game, where you could make or lose a lot of money, because the leverage they allow you, compared to the US stock market where you're only allowed to margin 50% of your money, or use $5000 dollars to buy $10,000 dollars in stocks. With currencies you could control $100,000 dollars with as little as 1% or 2% or as little as $1000 dollars, but if you make a bad bet, you could be wiped out!

But if you know for sure what way the peso is heading, you can make a killing!!!!

http://www.forex.com/trading-platforms/forextrader.html?src=...

The truth of the matter nobody can predict the future, not even the owners or workers in the " casa de cambios."

However, the ways things look now, we may see the peso go to 17, but nothing is set in stone.

Oil, or the low price of crude, was driving the peso lower compared to the dollar. We have not seen prices this low at the pump for sometime, but suddenly the price at the pump started to get high again, and just last week the oil prices took another dump, and the peso continued to hurt. Personally, I don't think the price of oil will remain low for long. ( again there are many factors hurting the peso)

We also had Mexico keep the interest rates the same and low in the last month or so, and that also hurt the peso.

The USA is expected to raise interest rates this September, and this as caused some pressure on the peso. So what happens if the USA doesn't raise interest rates? ( they said they were going to raise rates in June, but the FED did nothing)

You also have many Mexican companies reporting great earnings, so Mexico is not hurting, at least not with the fat cats in Mexico, and the corporations.

Lastly, I'm a " Contrarian," and I believe that the public is always wrong. In fact with the stock market, there is such a thing called the " Sentiment Index," that when the public is the most pessimistic and bearish about the market, is often the best time to invest, and likewise, when the public is bullish and overly optimistic, is probably the best time to get out, because a crash is coming, the fat cats are out of the market, and the dummies get caught holding the bag.

It's the same thing with real estate, and the bubble in 2007 and 2008, when people were buying houses like crazy at the top of the bubble.

So when you hear everyone start to say the peso is going to 17, 18, or perhaps 19, it might be time to walk, or rather run away, and bet in the opposite direction, because the general public is often wrong.

I just asked my fortune teller

durrelllrobert - 8-6-2015 at 04:04 PM

But she no speaka de english

Hook - 8-7-2015 at 11:47 AM

I cant predict the direction of the peso, in relation to the dollar, with any degree of accuracy.

But I'm not about to ignore short-term opportunities to take advantage of the changes.

lizard lips - 8-21-2015 at 11:52 AM

It took almost three weeks but it is now 17.

SFandH - 8-21-2015 at 01:22 PM

Quote: Originally posted by soulpatch

when we first moved to Mexico, it was 9.5:1...... I have had a pretty substantial pay raise since then if you look at that.

Well, let's see. (17 - 9.5) / 9.5 * 100 = a 79% increase in buying power if the arithmetic is right, less peso inflation. That's the way things work out, right?

Nice

[Edited on 8-21-2015 by SFandH]

StuckSucks - 8-21-2015 at 01:47 PM

Wait for it ... wait for it ...

AguaDulce - 8-21-2015 at 06:17 PM

I got 15.95 today at Bank of America for my trip next week. Ordered it online and then stopped by to pick up. I like to leave with pesos . Are there better rates NOB?

Hook - 8-21-2015 at 09:44 PM

I have a new Capital One Visa Rewards card and used it at a Home Depot down here for the first time. RUSHED back home (well, you know how anal I am about this!) to see what I got. 16.62 with no intl fees. And it earns points of some kind. Very pleased with that rate.

I cant use it for cash at an ATM without it being considered a cash advance but we are going to start using this for everything; paying the utilities, purchases at stores, etc. It will reduce our need for carrying cash. This is not tied to a bank account; simply a credit card.

tecatero - 8-22-2015 at 04:28 AM

As am getting ready to exchange a large sum of USD into my Banamex peso account, I read that the slide will continue for the following weeks, possibly hitting 18 sooner than later............Im not greedy after all those years at 10 to 1, but this is getting crazy

Santiago - 8-22-2015 at 06:34 AM

Anyone remember buying a meal for $80,000 pesos? I do. My father got hooked by the Mexican banks paying 15% interest if you opened an account with dollars that was then converted to pesos. His $15k 'merican went 'poof'. It's really 17,000 to 1. Those were some crazy days.

Bob and Susan - 8-22-2015 at 08:19 AM

yesterday the cambios at the border were 16 to the dollar
no commission

the rate drops as you get further south...all the way down to 13.8

if you are building this winter its time to convert dollars to pesos

Ryan - 9-1-2015 at 12:06 PM

Everywhere I looked around San Ysidro yesterday was selling at around 16.5
Still haven't seen the elusive 17

Bob and Susan - 9-1-2015 at 12:47 PM

selling (the high number 16.5) is for pesos to the dollar

the lower number (maybe 16) is dollars to pesos

larryC - 9-1-2015 at 01:43 PM

Yesterday returning from BoLA the Pemex stations in San Filipe were giving 16.5 to the dollar and I got 16.62 at the atm and that was after deducting the small fee they charge. I also stayed at the Blue Sky motel and they wanted $45 or 500P for the room. I chose the 500P option. Nice room for a little over $30, clean and air conditioned. The restaurant next door was good also.

bajabuddha - 9-1-2015 at 08:37 PM

:yawn: