BajaNomad - Godzilla El Nino

Godzilla El Nino

Sweetwater - 8-13-2015 at 05:30 PM

Quote:

Latest forecast suggests 'Godzilla El Niño' may be coming to California

Those pesky NASA scientific types who pander to the crowd that wants to send humans to space are at it again.....

Quote:

The strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has the potential to become one of the most powerful on record, as warming ocean waters surge toward the Americas, setting up a pattern that could bring once-in-a-generation storms this winter to drought-parched California. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that all computer models are predicting a strong El Niño to peak in the late fall or early winter. A host of observations have led scientists to conclude that “collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect a significant and strengthening El Niño.” “This definitely has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.

Good thing that he provided his own disclaimer with the "potential" statement. The quotes are from the LA Times but even NPR is getting in on it.....your liberal gubinment at work.....

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/08/13/432099022/...

Good graphics there, maybe even better.

freediverbrian - 8-13-2015 at 06:04 PM

"Godzilla El Nino " really? What was ninogate and ninoarmageddon taken :tumble:

SFandH - 8-13-2015 at 06:13 PM

Hot news topic for today:

link to news stories

Sweetwater - 8-13-2015 at 06:22 PM

hot is the new normal..... :lol:

Quote:

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that all computer models are predicting a strong El Niño to peak in the late fall or early winter. “This definitely has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge. Patzert said El Niño’s signal in the ocean “right now is stronger than it was in 1997,” the summer in which the most powerful El Niño on record developed ... “This could be among the strongest El Niños in the historical record dating back to 1950,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. After the summer 1997 El Niño muscled up, the following winter gave Southern California double its annual rainfall and dumped double the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, an essential source of precipitation for the state’s water supply, Patzert said. So what is a good disaster prepper to do? We know that the rains are coming. We know where they’re likely to strike. My housemates and I have decided to use the last warm days of summer to patch all the holes in our roof, and to make sure all our rain gutters are clear and in working order. Also, I’ve decided I should buy some good rain boots. What else should we be doing? If you live in the El Niño path, what are you doing?

DianaT - 8-13-2015 at 07:23 PM

It has been interesting interacting with the people in the East Part of the Northwest Territories and they tell us there is no doubt there is global warming. Yes, the weather still drops to -40F, but in the 70s and 80s it used to drop to -60F and lower on a regular basis and they had to use special fuel to keep things going. Now they just use the same summer fuel all year. They had a name for a 7 day super freeze when everything quit, but have not seen that happen for years.

And they have concerns for the future of the ice and winter roads upon which they depend and need for survival in the winter.

Scientific? No, just people seeing the change in their way of life.

woody with a view - 8-13-2015 at 07:27 PM

bring on the floods!

ncampion - 8-13-2015 at 07:47 PM

Oh Boy, another Global catastrophe for the power seekers to protect us from.

AKgringo - 8-13-2015 at 08:06 PM

One of the links that SF&H provided referred to it as a "Bruce Lee El Nino". Does that mean it will die off right at it's peak?

I know....that's just wrong. I'm sorry!

Ateo - 8-13-2015 at 08:17 PM

Dang AK, that was good.................. :lol:

mtgoat666 - 8-13-2015 at 08:27 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Sweetwater

Quote:

Latest forecast suggests 'Godzilla El Niño' may be coming to California

Those pesky NASA scientific types who pander to the crowd that wants to send humans to space are at it again.....

Quote:

Ya, that may be so, but we all know scientists are liars, forecasts/predictions are guesses (not science), the sea level at shell island is static (relevant here because it is proof that scientists are liars), and if you heard it on NPR then you must be a commie socialist just like Obama and Jerry Brown.

bajabuddha - 8-13-2015 at 08:54 PM

Records are made to be broken, just ask Jerry Rice and Bret Favre. Same with El Niño, and all articles I've read state the same prognosis which, as always, I like to echo:

ALL BETS ARE OFF. WE DON'T KNOW.

The anomaly sets off GLOBAL changes that make all 'usual' or 'formal' forecasts non-dependable. El Niños and La Niñas are meteorological circus side-shows to the pro's: "Gitcha Popcorn Ready!"

It's already given Baja 3 early scares, and absolutely NOTHING in the Altantic............ yet. Record monster storms in the west Pacific. That's the point, folks; lighten up on paranoia, double-down on life insurance, and hope you're wrong so you can blame the next batch of potiticians for your loss!!
:bounce:

LinRobinson - 8-13-2015 at 10:37 PM

Nuts. And after SUCH a lovely summer.

Taco de Baja - 8-14-2015 at 08:11 AM

Just goes to show you, if you pray to the rain gods long enough, or get the rain dance moves just right, one year your prayers may be answered...and possibly not in a good way.

Osprey - 8-14-2015 at 08:20 AM

When the Gods wish to punish us, they answer our prayers.

wilderone - 8-14-2015 at 09:29 AM

Doesn't seem like such a "guess" or baseless prediction. There is actual history and credible science from past El Nino events. I know what the '97 El Nino did to the Walker River, and it collapsed my roof in Lake Tahoe (4 ft. of snow, then 2 ft. of snow, then rain (because the temperature warmed) to weigh it all down). That El Nino event literally caused the Walker River to change course - it wiped out stretches of Hwy. 395, mowed down 1/2 mi. of forest - trees that had been standing for over 100 years.
I live on a bit of a hill - good thing - but I'm still gearing up for this winter; more catchment barrels with drain hoses out to the street. Safe than sorry. I hope Baja's new bridges can withstand floods equal to the ones that toppled them in the past.

SFandH - 8-14-2015 at 09:49 AM

El Ninos are very costly. The 97-98 one did 2.6 billion in property damage and 2 billion in crop damage.

"The overall hit to the U.S. economy: $25 billion."

How that number was arrived at was not explained.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/el-nino-threatens-to-return-cost...

Beach/bluff erosion is a concern for coastal homes.

BooJumMan - 8-14-2015 at 09:49 AM

Been following the progression of this years event for a few months now. There are tons of models and buoy data capturing the progression of a very strong Kelvin wave traversing the pacific from West to East along the equator. The areas on the equatorial eastern pacific which get charged by these warm waters have been already charged from last years base state. The oceanic gears have been turning for months though...the coupling of atmospheric changes have also been starting to form. The momentum that has been in motion will most likely NOT be stopped until next spring at least.

Last year's failed El Nino was due to the media blowing it up in Feb-May I think. That was way too premature. We are past the uncertainty phase now into August. This massive Kelvin wave is real and is tracked in real time....it will "erupt" in the eastern pacific around Oct/Nov. Will the northern hemisphere and jet streams change to it? Most likely, but... who knows. The fact is that the El Nino this year will be massive, in terms of anomalous warm water in the Nino regions.

Not to mention, remember all the tuna crabs this year? There is a correlation between them an El Nino as well.!

[Edited on 8-14-2015 by BooJumMan]

Mexitron - 8-14-2015 at 09:53 AM

When did El Nino become a liberal/conservative argument? Unless someone is wrongly associating an El Nino event with global warming...

sargentodiaz - 8-14-2015 at 10:09 AM

From what I've read, the biggest impact will be on Baja and Alta California, along with Arizona New Mexico with lots and lots of rain.

So, we'll see lots of flooding and mudslides affecting those dumb enough to build stuff where Nature doesn't want them.

StuckSucks - 8-14-2015 at 10:14 AM

8/13:

NOAA/NWS issued an updated El Nino outlook this morning. The main points are:
· A moderate El Nino event is currently ongoing and strengthening
· The NWS remains highly confident that this El Nino event will continue through the winter and into the early 2016 spring.
· At this time, the forecaster consensus unanimously favors this El Nino to peak sometime this fall or early winter as a strong event.
· This event could be among the strongest El Nino events in recorded history. The 3 strongest El Nino events occurred in: 72/73, 82/83, and 97/98.
· There is a positive correlation between El Nino events and increased tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific. The eastern Pacific hurricane season lasts until November 30th.
· The strongest correlations with enhanced precipitation occur across mainly southern CA during the winter associated with strong El Ninos. There is little-to-no correlation between enhanced precipitation and weak or moderate strength El Ninos.
· Even if California does receive above average precipitation this winter, it likely will not erase a 4 year drought.
· Individual weather storms can produce flooding, even in a drought.

It is important to remember that all El Nino events are different, and produce variable impacts. The graphic I have attached shows the 5 recorded strongest El Nino events since 1950 (note, that is a small sample size), and the precipitation anomalies that were observed. Most show above average precipitation, especially in southern CA, but look at 1965/66 where central and northern CA did not receive increased precipitation. The bottom line is there is a relationship between strong El Nino events and increased precipitation for California, but it is not a guarantee. This is especially true for central and northern California.

dtbushpilot - 8-14-2015 at 10:48 AM

Quote: Originally posted by StuckSucks

8/13:

NOAA/NWS issued an updated El Nino outlook this morning. The main points are:
· A moderate El Nino event is currently ongoing and strengthening
· The NWS remains highly confident that this El Nino event will continue through the winter and into the early 2016 spring.
· At this time, the forecaster consensus unanimously favors this El Nino to peak sometime this fall or early winter as a strong event.
· This event could be among the strongest El Nino events in recorded history. The 3 strongest El Nino events occurred in: 72/73, 82/83, and 97/98.
· There is a positive correlation between El Nino events and increased tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific. The eastern Pacific hurricane season lasts until November 30th.
· The strongest correlations with enhanced precipitation occur across mainly southern CA during the winter associated with strong El Ninos. There is little-to-no correlation between enhanced precipitation and weak or moderate strength El Ninos.
· Even if California does receive above average precipitation this winter, it likely will not erase a 4 year drought.
· Individual weather storms can produce flooding, even in a drought.

It is important to remember that all El Nino events are different, and produce variable impacts. The graphic I have attached shows the 5 recorded strongest El Nino events since 1950 (note, that is a small sample size), and the precipitation anomalies that were observed. Most show above average precipitation, especially in southern CA, but look at 1965/66 where central and northern CA did not receive increased precipitation. The bottom line is there is a relationship between strong El Nino events and increased precipitation for California, but it is not a guarantee. This is especially true for central and northern California.

That is a lot of words to say we are in a moderate El Niño event and we might get more rain than usual but then again we might not....or did I miss something?

bajabuddha - 8-14-2015 at 11:16 AM

I read the article too. The gist of the thing is this El Niño is shaping up to possibly be the strongest most potent one to happen since data was first recorded in 1950.

That in itself is newsworthy. To some.

It didn't predict any weather events, as a matter of fact it threw all standard patterns out the door, as this is a global phenomenon that affects global weather patterns. So, gitcha popcorn ready.

motoged - 8-14-2015 at 11:32 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Mexitron

When did El Nino become a liberal/conservative argument? Unless someone is wrongly associating an El Nino event with global warming...

Good point.....it is a meteorological issue....some folks just have a narrow lens of perception.

Sweetwater - 8-14-2015 at 05:59 PM

Quote: Originally posted by motoged

Quote: Originally posted by Mexitron

When did El Nino become a liberal/conservative argument? Unless someone is wrongly associating an El Nino event with global warming...

Good point.....it is a meteorological issue....some folks just have a narrow lens of perception.

Yup, some folks just have their own agenda....our buddy Chabon has just passed through Kamloops in the past couple days....he's having a great ride on his moto. What's really impressive to me is the hot spots of ocean that are so far north.....maybe that Kali drought will be ended.....and replaced by mudslides? Seems to have been good for fishing along the entire Pacific coast.

vandenberg - 8-14-2015 at 06:12 PM

Hey, there is a chance both Gore and Biden will be in the running, so those issues should be resolved in short order. :biggrin:

Alm - 8-14-2015 at 06:42 PM

What else is new...

A month ago there were articles already that El Nino 2015 was going to set a new record and become stronger than 1997. Now they merely confirm this.

Here in (usually) cool and rainy PNW, the heat wave and drought are unbelievable. Temps since late May are 6-8 degrees above historical averages for the last 30 years, day and night, and no rain at all. Forest fires everywhere. Last month I had to drive out of town for a week because PM 2.5 (air quality, smoke in other words) was 30 times higher than normal for this area, and 10 times higher than safe norm established by World Health Organization. You couldn't see the sun, it was all grey and hazy.

For this region El Nino 2015 will most likely live up to the forecasts. You guys can make jokes all you want, like warm is a new norm, "power seekers to protect us from", etc etc. I see what I see - severe climate change and warming.

[Edited on 8-15-2015 by Alm]

bajabuddha - 8-14-2015 at 10:23 PM

........And another one bites the dust............

FFFFLLLLUUUUUUUSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

chuckie - 8-15-2015 at 03:58 AM

Over 90 here in Lewistown Montana yesterday.....eh?

Alm - 8-16-2015 at 09:51 AM

Quote: Originally posted by bajabuddha

........And another one bites the dust............

Another few (hundred?) millions, I think. There will be climate refugees soon, if it goes like that. Not necessarily due to sea level rise, the estimates vary from 3mm = 1/8" a year to 20ft over 30 years, nobody can tell because changes of that scale never happened before. Arctic shield is thawing, but not all the water gets to the ocean, some goes into atmosphere and some stays in the ice, making it sponge-like. Eventually it will get there, and then there may be 10ft rise in a few years after several years of no change.

Another problem is the warming and changes in seasonal patters. Here where I live, dry and hot spell usually lasts 2-3 weeks. Last summer it was 2 months, and there was no major El Nino. This year, because of the El Nino, it's been hot and dry for 3 months already, and no sign of relief in view. Costs a lot of money to local and federal budgets too.

sargentodiaz - 8-16-2015 at 10:26 AM

Some indications are there will be more rain in California and south with dry, cold pattern in Oregon north.

Sweetwater - 8-22-2015 at 08:29 AM

Is it storm season yet?

5 in the Pacific and 2 in the Atlantic.....here comes Godzilla..... :wow:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/?&MR=1

David K - 8-22-2015 at 09:17 AM

Yup, but no storms affecting the Californias since Dolores in July and the brief rain a few days after, that soaked us near Mulegé!

Mexitron - 8-22-2015 at 11:26 AM

Curious weather pattern in Texas---in May the state was inundated with literally feet of rain, then half way through June the spigot got turned off and Texas went thru the 4th driest long streak in state history in latter June, July, and up to a couple days ago in August.

wessongroup - 8-22-2015 at 12:43 PM

July was Earth's hottest month ever recorded

That may mean something ... given the amount of water that covers the planet

Hell of a large "heat sink" ... just saying

Mexitron - 8-22-2015 at 01:50 PM

wessongroup--if you haven't seen this article, pretty amazing read, the mother of all El Ninos, 66 inches of precip in LA in 1861:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-rivers...

Ateo - 8-22-2015 at 02:19 PM

All I know is the surf has SUCKED this summer here in SOCAL.

Ateo - 8-22-2015 at 02:28 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Mexitron

wessongroup--if you haven't seen this article, pretty amazing read, the mother of all El Ninos, 66 inches of precip in LA in 1861:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-rivers...

Thanks. Fun read and SCARY!

AKgringo - 8-22-2015 at 02:51 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Mexitron

wessongroup--if you haven't seen this article, pretty amazing read, the mother of all El Ninos, 66 inches of precip in LA in 1861:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-rivers...

I grew up in the Grass Valley, Nevada City area, and was not aware of the extent of the floods in the central valley, just that they used to happen. By the way, Nevada City is in California, about 65 miles north of Sacramento. It took the name Nevada, before there was a state that used it.

There have been massive flood control measures that have happened since those days, but much of it is old, and I doubt that it could handle such a deluge. Beside that, there are now communities in places that in the old days were expected to flood, with not enough development to justify the cost of flood control.

sargentodiaz - 8-23-2015 at 09:40 AM

They had a severe snowstorm last night in Calgary, Canada.

[Edited on 8-23-2015 by sargentodiaz]

bajabuddha - 8-23-2015 at 09:57 AM

Instead of pumping oil from Canada for the rich Fat Cats to get richer and fatter off of, has anyone given any thought to pumping WATER instead? As in, even from the western Great Lakes or southern Lake Michigan, and using some of that resource to refill both groundwater aquifers in the Midwest, and taking it over low passes into Kalifornia? Water will probably be more valuable than crude oil in the next 50 years i'm willing to wager.

Because of the '82-'83 El Niño events (gee, hope i'm on the right thread this time) Utah's Governor Norm Bangarter spent ump-teen million dollars to build a set of pumps on the west shoreline of the Great Salt Lake to "keep it from flooding urban areas" (yeah, right) because the lake level rose incredibly fast, even inundating a short section of the I-80 corridor..... it was used for ONE or TWO years, total.... and has sat, rusted, and rotted away now for over 30 years, with the lake level at its' record lowest at the moment (or close to it). Truth be known, ol' Norm was in bed with AMAX Chemical Corp. and a few other mineral-miners that loved all that chemical-laden water pumped out into their settling ponds west of the lake, that i'm sure they're still making beau coup bucks on to this day.

Sweetwater - 8-23-2015 at 09:58 AM

National Geographic does a pretty good job of giving a basic primer on the Ocean Conveyor Belt: http://education.nationalgeographic.com/encyclopedia/ocean-c...

There are lots more complicated explanations from other universities and oceanographic institutes. Warning: they don't seem political to me but all seem to link global climate change....the political amongst you will not be educated.....

Quote:

Key Concepts
bathymetry climate change
north atlantic deep water temperature
thermohaline circulation
antarctic circumpolar current
currents ocean wind
ocean conveyor belt

wessongroup - 8-23-2015 at 11:21 AM

Thanks Mexitron ... was living in the Central Valley at the end of the drought in 78 ... folks were pumping a lot of water around

No doubt in my mind that floods have occurred in history ... along with sea levels going up and down

It's only the "degree" which has me concerned, at this time

Not sure we have the same "factors" in play, as in the past

Most say no ... we will see what the weather brings ... like it or not :biggrin:

This winter should be interesting for a lot of folks

Cisco - 8-24-2015 at 11:20 PM

INCREDIBLE IMAGES AND VIDEO OF HOW HUMANS HAVE TRANSFORMED EARTH

http://alizul2.blogspot.com/2012/04/incredible-images-and-vi...

actual observation

huesos - 9-13-2015 at 02:41 PM

If the rains come, what kind of weather can one expect at the tip of Baja, Todos Santos etc?

wessongroup - 9-13-2015 at 03:05 PM

"visuals" do tend to help in seeing changes of this magnitude , which are linked to humans ... as I don't think these images are related to anything else but humans

Hard to see them from a fixed location on the planet with the naked eye

Thanks good depiction of the "scale" which is our® footprint on the planet