BajaNomad

East Coast king tides raise the stakes (and water level)- Alligators in the street

Whale-ista - 9-30-2015 at 04:59 PM

Sea Level Rise and the March of King Tides: Why We Need to Get Familiar with This Week’s Tidal Flooding

Full report/photos at:
http://blog.ucsusa.org/sea-level-rise-and-the-march-of-king-...

This week, many residents of the U.S. East Coast communities are witnessing flood waters rise with each high tide. These people are getting a taste of the future. Almost like being picked to try out some futuristic device for a few days — only this is messy, costly, and, if you realize it’s a taste of things to come, unnerving. Unwilling pioneers, in a way, these people are living on the front line of sea level rise and experiencing the periodic soaking that others don’t yet know, but will.

It started in some places on Saturday – salt water creeping onto roads and sidewalks, into basements and businesses. It continued under the supermoon eclipse. And over the last several days, we’ve had repeated demonstrations of the new reach of the tide – and we should expect it in places for several days to come.

Yes, this is a “king tide” – one of those instances when the moon exerts a slightly stronger tug on the tides than normal. It happens several times each year. This one even has a cool astronomical twist that you can read about here. But in certain affected places it is some of the biggest tidal flooding in memory. We should get used to it, says the latest science. With sea level rise, the highest tides are only getting higher, and the flooding they bring is only getting more frequent.

A sample of this week’s notable flooding

Here’s a round-up of some of the flooding seen, so far:

At the writing of this post, coastal flood advisories and flood watches due to “astronomical tides” were in effect in locations from Key West to Maine, including Baltimore, Washington, DC, and others in between.

In Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and other parts of South Florida, a third night of flooding has closed roads, flooded sidewalks and yards, threatened homes and businesses, literally brought fish onto flooded streets (see 0:58), and led some to call this the most extensive tidal flooding they’d ever witnessed. Says Miami Beach spokeswoman Nannette Rodriguez, “The tides have been higher than we predicted, so we are taking preventive measures.”
In Georgia, tide waters flooded Highway 80, the single access to Tybee Island.

In South Carolina, tide waters have already flooded coastal neighborhoods for hours at a time, covering roads, reaching into buildings, and leaving behind a rime of debris. Charleston has seen consecutive days with road closures due to flooding.

(Which, though a big deal, is notably duller than last month’s king tide, which saw alligators swimming flooded streets.)

In North Carolina, homes in one neighborhood were completely surrounded by tidewaters that washed away fences and stairways.

Further up the coast, tidal flooding is expected to continue in places into the latter part of the week, a time when the soaking rains could exacerbate the situation.

What’s going on here?

One vital piece of this phenomenon – the astronomical piece – is just doing what it does. Stronger tides twice a month with each full and new moon. Stronger still a few times a year with the lunar “perigee” (when the moon is closest to the earth and exerts a stronger gravitational tug). And there’s that additional celestial factor, too, which amplifies the tides further every 18 or so years (Thanks, EarthSky for the great coverage).

The other vital piece though – the ocean – is simply taking up more space, and the tides have nowhere else to go but onto roads and into backyards. Here are the basics:

Global average sea level rose roughly eight inches from 1880 – 2009.
The U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico experienced some of the world’s fastest rates of sea level rise in the twentieth century due to local and regional factors.
The frequency of tidal flooding has jumped dramatically in many locations in the past several decades, quadrupling in some places since the 1970s.
And with sea level rise accelerating and projected to rise roughly 6 inches in the next 15 years, and roughly a foot in the 30 years’ time (globally, with local and regional differences), you can see where this is going.


What next?

UCS released a report last fall illustrating how the tides alone, riding on higher seas over the next 15 and 30 years, have the potential to reshape how and where people in affected areas live, work, and otherwise go about their daily lives. And by causing certain areas to be regularly flooded, sea level rise has the potential to effectively claim land decades before that land is projected to be permanently underwater. We need to understand what we’re dealing with and start responding.

We found that, as sea level rises, the number of tidal floods, their extent, and their duration, all increase steeply in the overwhelming majority of our locations. In addition, new locations that are currently unfamiliar with tidal flooding join the tidal flooding front line. Here’s a sample:

By 2030:

Most of the communities analyzed (30 of 52 total) are projected to experience at least 24 floods per year in exposed areas, the equivalent of flooding twice a month.
15 of the 52 communities can expect to see at least 48 floods a year, the equivalent of flooding four times a month. And some can expect much more flooding than this.
By 2045

Half of the towns (26) are expected to face more than 100 floods a year, the equivalent of eight or more floods a month.
17 towns would face at least 180 floods a year, on average, or 15 floods each month, and nine towns could see tidal flooding 240 times or more per year.
Nearly half of our communities (23) can expect normal tidal fluctuations to bring extensive flooding.
And larger floods will last longer. More than one-third of our 52 locations can expect flood-prone areas to be underwater 5 percent of the year, and 5 in the mid-Atlantic area are projected to be flooded 10 percent of the time.


Fair warning

Plenty of communities are no stranger to this flooding. The video below introduces us to their experience. And plenty of others will be joining their ranks as sea level rises. This is not a matter of speculation. It’s a matter of the steady (and accelerating) march of high tide, and it’s really only a question of what’s in its path. With the increasing frequency and reach of tidal flooding in recent years, we’ve had fair warning. So this week, as we trade supermoon photos and gripe about the limitations of smartphone cameras, keep an eye on those tides. It’s not every day you get a glimpse of the future.



Posted in: Global Warming Tags: sea level rise, tidal flooding
About the author: Erika Spanger-Siegfried is a senior analyst in the Climate & Energy program at UCS. She currently manages UCS’s coastal and Mountain West climate impacts projects, designed to shed light through new research and outreach on ongoing local impacts, current efforts to cope, and the urgency of high-level action. Erika formerly managed the Energy-Water Initiative (EW3) and, prior to that, the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment, a research effort to explore climate change, impacts, and solutions in the northeastern United States. She holds a master’s degree in energy and environmental analysis from Boston University. See Erika's full bio.

Support from UCS members make work like this possible. Will you join us? Help UCS advance independent science for a healthy environment and a safer world.

AKgringo - 9-30-2015 at 05:13 PM

And the East coast can expect some storm surge added to that!

Cliffy - 10-1-2015 at 04:31 AM

Where did all the water go from the melting of the glaciers of the Ice Age 10,000-15,000 years ago?

Why did they melt? Too many mammoth farts?

bajabuddha - 10-1-2015 at 06:14 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Cliffy  
Where did all the water go from the melting of the glaciers of the Ice Age 10,000-15,000 years ago?

Why did they melt? Too many mammoth farts?

It only filled in the Chukchi Sea and the Bearing Sea is all (amongst a few others).... current underwater archaeology along the shores of Alaska proved people were living under the ocean at that time (must've had diving bells), and the natural earthen dam that held in Lake Bonneville (now half of Utah and parts of Nevada) broke under tremendous pressure of melting glacial water, and created a huge natural flood that took out parts of Washington and Oregon, creating now dry waterfalls that make Niagara a puddle. That's just a few 'climate change' phenomena that I know of. Other than that, there wasn't much happening.

Far's why, wasn't man-caused. Been happening for millennia. If you study Pennsylvanian limestone (280-320 myo) each banded layer of a mill-or-so years was caused by rapid glaciation/melting and fluctuations of shallow inland subtropical and tropical seas. So was building of mountains and much volcanic activity on the planet. Notice it was a MILLION or so years, give or take a few for events. Has nothing to do with us. Wasn't even reptilian life on earth, let alone mammoth farts.

Ours is happening just in the last 100. Choose to ignore or disbelieve, your prerogative.

Oh, and here we go again; Nomania in the making... give it 2 pages.

[Edited on 10-1-2015 by bajabuddha]

shari - 10-1-2015 at 08:41 AM

http://colectivopericu.net/2015/09/28/luna-roja-desaparecio-...

here is a story about exactly the same phenomenon but in Puerto San Carlos in Baja Sur.

Whale-ista - 10-1-2015 at 06:14 PM

Thanks Shari- I was wondering how coastal communities in Baja will manage these tides.

Quote: Originally posted by shari  
http://colectivopericu.net/2015/09/28/luna-roja-desaparecio-...

here is a story about exactly the same phenomenon but in Puerto San Carlos in Baja Sur.

monoloco - 10-2-2015 at 01:45 PM

Quote: Originally posted by shari  
http://colectivopericu.net/2015/09/28/luna-roja-desaparecio-...

here is a story about exactly the same phenomenon but in Puerto San Carlos in Baja Sur.
They also had flooding at the marina in Cabo San Lucas.

Gonzo - 10-2-2015 at 02:33 PM

Long term tide gauges across the East coast show between 2-4mm of sea level rise per year for over 100yrs with no acceleration. The big problem is subsidence (land sinking), many of the major metro areas are built on silty soils around lagoons/bays. Not good. Either adapt or the water will come and it won't be stopped by you or me not driving our co2 emitting baja rigs!

http://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_us.ht...

Gonzo - 10-2-2015 at 02:46 PM

"Spatial comparisons at ten stations for the 1976-2007 period provide new evidence on spatial variability of RSL rise rates within Chesapeake Bay. Global positioning system (GPS) data from ground stations further define the pattern of spatial variability and permit new estimates of ASL rise rates in the region, all of which are significantly less than the global ASL rise rate of 3.1 mm/yr over 1993 to 2003 reported in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Present evidence suggests an ASL rise rate of about 1.8 mm/yr in Chesapeake Bay over the 1976-2007 period. Applying this rate uniformly throughout the bay, subsidence rates ranging from about -1.3 mm/yr to -4.0 mm/yr are found, leading to the general conclusion that about 53% of the RSL rise measured at bay water level stations is, on average, due to local subsidence."

Geologically speaking the whole of the east coast has been sinking for millenia. Some scientific studies estimate as much as 50-200mtrs. So it ain't a new thing. Adapt or............

bajabuddha - 10-2-2015 at 04:22 PM

We were camped at La Perla in Bahia Concepcion on December 26th, 2005(?) and at high tide with a fair wind, the waves were coming all the way up the beach and lapping into the palapas. Never seen it before, been wintering there for 10 years. We thought it was a King-tide, but nay nay! What we were witnessing was a seiche, the remnants of the giant tsunami that took out 240,000 people almost half-way around the world; it had travelled across the Pacific, rounded the Cape, up the SOC, entered the Bahia and was sloshing up the shore. We didn't start hearing about the disaster for a day or two until word came to the beach by travelers passing through.... it took even longer to put 2+2 together about the super high tide. I got news for some....... Nature bats FOURTH (the Grand-Slam line-up). Whadda they call that in baseball anywayz?

AKgringo - 10-2-2015 at 04:37 PM

I have always questioned the phrase'Nature bats last'. If we can agree that Nature is the home team, and Man is the visitor, then if Man is not at least tied at the middle of the ninth inning, Nature does not even have to take the field.

Do you think the game is tied up? Despite some great early innings, I sure don't think Man is winning.

bajabuddha - 10-2-2015 at 05:00 PM

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo  
I have always questioned the phrase'Nature bats last'. If we can agree that Nature is the home team, and Man is the visitor, then if Man is not at least tied at the middle of the ninth inning, Nature does not even have to take the field.

Do you think the game is tied up? Despite some great early innings, I sure don't think Man is winning.


BINGO. :coolup:

(here it comes......... 10...... 9.......... 8.......... )