BajaNomad

El Nino 2015

Cisco - 11-9-2015 at 05:06 PM


https://wunderground.atavist.com/el-nino-forecast

David K - 11-9-2015 at 05:16 PM

Just went through that link saying this could be the biggest El Niņo on record... and near the bottom is a map showing California and the west will remain in a drought with dry conditions intensifying?

They can't have it both ways.

El Niņo is the cause (we are told) of heavier than average rainfall (as we have every 5-10 years, normally)... Not the cause of the drought to persist or intensify.

People have short memories... in early 2010 we had Hwy. 1 bridges washing out in San Vicente, Colonia Guerrero and El Rosario from the heavier than average rain. Well, it is almost 6 years later!

Cisco - 11-9-2015 at 05:29 PM

Quote: Originally posted by David K  
Just went through that link saying this could be the biggest El Niņo on record... and near the bottom is a map showing California and the west will remain in a drought with dry conditions intensifying?

They can't have it both ways.

El Niņo is the cause (we are told) of heavier than average rainfall (as we have every 5-10 years, normally)... Not the cause of the drought to persist or intensify.

People have short memories... in early 2010 we had Hwy. 1 bridges washing out in San Vicente, Colonia Guerrero and El Rosario from the heavier than average rain. Well, it is almost 6 years later!



Click on Regional Forecasts on the map David.

"California
During a strong El Niņo, the subtropical jet stream is energized across the southern U.S., while the polar jet stream tends to stay north of its usual winter position, giving Californians a warm and wet Pacific system. California will need several consistently rainy seasons to pull them out of their drought crisis, so it is unlikely this El Niņo will provide much relief. The largest rain events can be expected midwinter. Nuisance flooding can occur during these times of heavy rain, occasionally leading to mudslides."

There is a tremendous amount of information in this post and you need to hunt around to fully understand.

AKgringo - 11-9-2015 at 09:54 PM

El Nino gets the engine revved up, but the jet streams determine where all that energy goes.

If the high pressure ridge that has been hanging out off the California coast repeats the pattern this year, the winter storms may go north and south of the Sierra Nevada range. Or the whole damn state may get flood waters.

It is snowing on Donner summit right now, down to 5000 feet last I heard!

mtgoat666 - 11-9-2015 at 10:43 PM

Quote: Originally posted by David K  
Just went through that link saying this could be the biggest El Niņo on record... and near the bottom is a map showing California and the west will remain in a drought with dry conditions intensifying?

They can't have it both ways.

El Niņo is the cause (we are told) of heavier than average rainfall (as we have every 5-10 years, normally)... Not the cause of the drought to persist or intensify.

People have short memories... in early 2010 we had Hwy. 1 bridges washing out in San Vicente, Colonia Guerrero and El Rosario from the heavier than average rain. Well, it is almost 6 years later!



Drought in CA and El Niņo are different. Apples and oranges.

Dk, how are we going to get back to having a Sierra snow pack supply water throughout dry summer?

David K - 11-10-2015 at 08:26 AM

Because there will be a heavy snowpack again, maybe not this winter (but I think it will be), but it will be heavy again. Everything works in cycles.