BajaNomad

How does/would El Nino affect Baja?

eguillermo - 11-9-2015 at 05:10 PM

I've read that an El Nino year can see worse tropical storms on the Pacific, which could be bad news for Baja if one came north like Rick and others have in recent years.

Other than big tropical storms though, what would you expect in an El Nino year? More rain? More "chubascos?" Worse wind on the Cortez, with more Nortes? Warm-water fish species sticking around longer?

I get excited every year for my two-week Christmas trip to fish and kayak parts of the Cortez and Pacific between Asuncion and Mag Bay. So I'm wondering what to expect, if anything special.

Thanks! :)

David K - 11-9-2015 at 05:19 PM

Three bridges on Hwy. 1 were washed out in 2010 from the last 'wet' year... Those bridges were replaced... So, we will find out if the newer ones are better... otherwise, plan on a 1-5 day delay during the winter and spring.

DENNIS - 11-9-2015 at 05:35 PM


We won't know 'till it's over. It's weather.

BigBearRider - 11-9-2015 at 06:50 PM

I think this video explains it in all the detail you need:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkSRUf02gu8

rts551 - 11-9-2015 at 07:00 PM

We are seeing tropical fish where we have not in the past. Lots of Wahoo around Abreojos and La Bocana. Banner fishing year from a boat. Lots of corvina from the shore. Few halibut from the shore though. Water is very warm. Tides are much higher for some reason on the pacific side with a lot of beach erosion (some say the peninsula is sinking).

BooJumMan - 11-9-2015 at 07:46 PM

Increased tropical cyclones during the cyclone season is one for sure. But we are shifting out of that phase.

El Nino during winter months will bring more rain down from the northern pacific... From my knowledge, it seems that whenever we have a wet winter, Baja will have some bridge failures as DK has mentioned.

This years El Nino is very strong, however the atmospheric coupling is not foretasted to be impacted by the oceanic mechanisms until the end of December. It might happen sooner or later. Just keep your eye out on the forecast models and plan accordingly. Should be fun.

Ateo - 11-9-2015 at 08:14 PM

rts551:

Tides are the same...........unless the sun and moon have moved. I bet you meant more powerful waves......maybe coming thru during a high tide?

:)

rts551 - 11-9-2015 at 08:19 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Ateo  
rts551:

Tides are the same...........unless the sun and moon have moved. I bet you meant more powerful waves......maybe coming thru during a high tide?

:)


Water is higher or the ground is dropping. Bank in front of our house is eroding away for the first time in 20 years and the salt flats are filling with water (no more lower road between Abreojos and La Bocana). Some people may have a problem with the federal zone if they re-measure.

Ateo - 11-9-2015 at 08:26 PM

Quote: Originally posted by rts551  
Quote: Originally posted by Ateo  
rts551:

Tides are the same...........unless the sun and moon have moved. I bet you meant more powerful waves......maybe coming thru during a high tide?

:)


Water is higher or the ground is dropping. Bank in front of our house is eroding away for the first time in 20 years and the salt flats are filling with water (no more lower road between Abreojos and La Bocana). Some people may have a problem with the federal zone if they re-measure.


Interesting...........thanks.

AAW - 11-9-2015 at 08:51 PM

Warmer ocean waters in El Nino years means that the volume of ocean water is increased leading to higher tides. How much of course is anyones guess.

BooJumMan - 11-10-2015 at 07:03 AM

Quote: Originally posted by AAW  
Warmer ocean waters in El Nino years means that the volume of ocean water is increased leading to higher tides. How much of course is anyones guess.


You're right. But JASON-2 satellite gives us sea level anomalies!


Sea level

AAW - 11-10-2015 at 11:54 AM

Thanks for showing the Jason 2 info. Very interesting. So it appears that the ocean level around the Baja is 5-10 cm above normal.

monoloco - 11-10-2015 at 12:08 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Ateo  
rts551:

Tides are the same...........unless the sun and moon have moved. I bet you meant more powerful waves......maybe coming thru during a high tide?

:)
The tropical storms tracking further north on the outside for the last two summers is what's responsible for the beach erosion. The tides seem higher when the swell comes from the west and there is less beach to slow them down.

eguillermo - 11-11-2015 at 12:19 PM

Thanks for all the interesting information and forecasts Nomads!

Ultimately Dennis is right, and we won't know EXACTLY what happens until it's over. But folks who have been down there for years and years get a sense of things.

For instance, if you packed up suddenly for Maine, where I grew up, I'd strongly suggest a hat and gloves, but if it were January, I'd tell you to check forecasts before you go skiing due to the annual "thaw" we usually have. Oh and then there's "mud season..." :D

Osprey - 11-11-2015 at 10:50 PM

This year we've had 5 Super Moons or Blue Moons and several fondos del mar from unusually strong storms out over the Pacific. That together with sea temps rising is thought to have caused the erosion on sandy shores all over the Pacific. That and the water temps have moved a lot of sea life up and down the west coast of the U.S. and Mexico. They have records of similar years/cycles but the severity, the consequences are hard to predict because you have to either generalize or just pick species and small sample spots.