BajaNomad

...'heads up' on some upcoming weather.....some concern for the Cabo area

micah202 - 11-23-2015 at 09:41 PM

.

...I don't like being the one to be bearing potentially bad news,,,but better forewarned than not......

Hopefully things go as is generally being forecast...but got the following is from a very reliable marine forecaster based in california,,issued 6pm today. It's possible the computer models aren't accounting for extra warm water temperatures.........

''The calendar says we only have a week left in the "Official" Eastern Pacific Hurricane season but TD 22E is now forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane this week. With the current very warm Eastern Pacific SSTs this could become yet another major hurricane reaching CAT 3 status along its path to the Baja peninsula if the forecasts are correct.

The possibility that tropical cyclone activity could extend into December is also more likely this year with greatly elevated ocean temps in the Eastern and Central Pacific. If you have a boat in the area, pay attention to the forecasts to best protect life and property.''


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?5-daynl#contents








[Edited on 11-24-2015 by micah202]

[Edited on 11-24-2015 by micah202]

[Edited on 11-24-2015 by micah202]

Ateo - 11-23-2015 at 09:42 PM

Water temp was 72 degrees in the Seven Sisters last week.

mtnpop - 11-24-2015 at 08:59 AM

Gotta go to LaPaz on Monday,,, hope the vado's are empty by then...
Maybe it will drop more south... We can only hope....

King Tides

bajaguy - 11-24-2015 at 09:09 AM

http://fox5sandiego.com/2015/11/24/king-tides-heavy-winds-to...

micah202 - 11-24-2015 at 10:46 AM

Quote: Originally posted by mtnpop  
Gotta go to LaPaz on Monday,,, hope the vado's are empty by then...
Maybe it will drop more south... We can only hope....


...hopefully you have that right.
....here's the guy's rationalization for possible intensification,,,and some hopeful news on routing........


''It is perplexing in the near term as all of the ingredients are there for rapid intensification. Starting around day four and as the cyclone tracks around the SW side of the subtropical high, SW shear is what causes degeneration. We will have to see how it plays out. The next 24 hours will be key. More later on intenisty.

The track has been shifted to the south and for now it appears Cabo and La Paz are not going to be directly impacted.''

[Edited on 11-24-2015 by micah202]

unbob - 11-24-2015 at 11:27 AM

Quote: Originally posted by micah202  


...hopefully you have that right.
....here's the guy's rationalization for possible intensification,,,and some hopeful news on routing........


''It is perplexing in the near term as all of the ingredients are there for rapid intensification. Starting around day four and as the cyclone tracks around the SW side of the subtropical high, SW shear is what causes degeneration. We will have to see how it plays out. The next 24 hours will be key. More later on intenisty.

The track has been shifted to the south and for now it appears Cabo and La Paz are not going to be directly impacted.''

[Edited on 11-24-2015 by micah202]
Got link to those comments? I'm not seeing it on the NOAA site.

bajabuddha - 11-24-2015 at 12:29 PM

sargentodiaz - 11-24-2015 at 12:51 PM

Everything I've seen on the Weather Channel says Sandra will make landfall at the tip of Baja with winds of 80mph and they will drop to 50 when it makes landfall on the mainland at Mazatlan. The projected to go north and east into Chihuahua and Texas.

chippy - 11-24-2015 at 01:55 PM

ruh roh

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/203257.sh...

micah202 - 11-24-2015 at 02:10 PM

Quote: Originally posted by unbob  
[/rquote]Got link to those comments? I'm not seeing it on the NOAA site.


...he's a private marine forecaster based in Southern Cal...seems the human factor managed to make an early prediction of what NOAA's got now.

Hopefully there's some more south movement.

.....is this the right time to hang laundry...or just turn some fans on!? :rolleyes: