BajaNomad

Homicides by Location

bajaguy - 2-10-2016 at 06:04 PM

I'm sure this will generate comments

http://www.semaforo.mx/content/tasa-de-homicidios-por-ciudad...

SFandH - 2-10-2016 at 06:14 PM

Interesting, sort of.

I have a question, Mulege is listed as 6.8 homicides per 100 thousand inhabitants. The sign on the highway says Mulege has a population of 3000 people.

Where does 6.8 come from?

BigBearRider - 2-10-2016 at 06:18 PM

Very interesting statistics. It appears that Tijuana and La Paz are really skewing the results for Baja California.

BigBearRider - 2-10-2016 at 06:20 PM

Quote: Originally posted by SFandH  
Interesting, sort of.

I have a question, Mulege is listed as 6.8 homicides per 100 thousand inhabitants. The sign on the highway says Mulege has a population of 3000 people.

Where does 6.8 come from?


I think the sign says "3006.8"

Really, I think it says "3,111" but the digits are withering away.

SFandH - 2-10-2016 at 06:26 PM

Quote: Originally posted by BigBearRider  
Quote: Originally posted by SFandH  
Interesting, sort of.

I have a question, Mulege is listed as 6.8 homicides per 100 thousand inhabitants. The sign on the highway says Mulege has a population of 3000 people.

Where does 6.8 come from?


I think the sign says "3006.8"

Really, I think it says "3,111" but the digits are withering away.


ok, so how did they get 6.8 homicides per 100,000 people?

Wall Street accountants?

Tioloco - 2-10-2016 at 06:26 PM

It is a stat. Take it with a grain of salt.

SFandH - 2-10-2016 at 06:27 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Tioloco  
It is a stat. Take it with a grain of salt.


naw, i wanna know

BigBearRider - 2-10-2016 at 06:32 PM

I think "Mulege" refers not to the town, but the municipality (it makes sense in light of the other municipalities listed). It includes about 60,000 people, according to Wikipedia.

[Edited on 2-11-2016 by BigBearRider]

Tioloco - 2-10-2016 at 06:34 PM

Ok, maybe there have been 7 people killed in the last 33+ years.
3,000 people x 33 years = Close to the stat.

bajaguy - 2-10-2016 at 06:49 PM

Common Core new math
Quote: Originally posted by SFandH  
Interesting, sort of.

I have a question, Mulege is listed as 6.8 homicides per 100 thousand inhabitants. The sign on the highway says Mulege has a population of 3000 people.

Where does 6.8 come from?

bajacamper - 2-10-2016 at 08:07 PM

Wait a minute. Guns are not permitted in Mexico. All these people must have been killed with machetes or rocks.

Gulliver - 2-10-2016 at 08:43 PM

You're so cute. I wish I had a camera.

Udo - 2-10-2016 at 09:36 PM

Good one Terry!

bajabuddha - 2-10-2016 at 09:42 PM

Drop a turd, see if it smells. Nomania is alive and well in cyber-Mexico.

23S52N - 2-11-2016 at 07:35 AM

Interesting stuff Terry. Brought to mind the US state dept.s travel advisories for Mexico and specifically Baja. Chicago boasted 3000 homicides last year. Perhaps they should issue a travel advisory.

Regards
Keith

bajaguy - 2-11-2016 at 08:23 AM

Actually firearm ownership is legal in Mexico, just have to follow the regulations:

http://www.davekopel.org/Espanol/Mexican-Gun-Laws.htm
Quote: Originally posted by bajacamper  
Wait a minute. Guns are not permitted in Mexico. All these people must have been killed with machetes or rocks.

Udo - 2-11-2016 at 09:17 AM

Now you started something!

dtutko1 - 2-11-2016 at 10:17 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Tioloco  
Ok, maybe there have been 7 people killed in the last 33+ years.
3,000 people x 33 years = Close to the stat.

Or maybe there were .2 homicides last year.

Lee - 2-11-2016 at 11:13 AM

I know gringoes down here with guns. All legal.

JoeJustJoe - 2-11-2016 at 11:29 AM

Quote: Originally posted by SFandH  
Quote: Originally posted by BigBearRider  
Quote: Originally posted by SFandH  
Interesting, sort of.

I have a question, Mulege is listed as 6.8 homicides per 100 thousand inhabitants. The sign on the highway says Mulege has a population of 3000 people.

Where does 6.8 come from?


I think the sign says "3006.8"

Really, I think it says "3,111" but the digits are withering away.


ok, so how did they get 6.8 homicides per 100,000 people?

Wall Street accountants?


It really doesn't take a Wall Street Accountant but you should know how to calculate the formula which is pretty easy once you get the hang of it.

Number of Crimes / Population) x 100,000 = Crime Rate Per 100,000

However, everybody should know the FBI cautions against rankings for many reasons.

I caution against using these crime rates for small cities, like Rosarito, that has a very small population, and a pretty high population of illegals not bothering to get the proper paperwork to live there permanently, and the city has a large transient population that comes and goes, and is not counted on official census type reports.

A small city like Rosarito, had on average about 25 deaths per year for many years, and in 2013, they had 30 deaths, and 42 deaths in 2014, and in 2015 I think the homicide rate was 60.

Well a sudden bad weekend in tiny Rosarito, could really skew the statistics, and make it appear Rosarito, is a war zone, with dead bodies left and right, when actually Rosarito, is the same sleepy beach town it always has been with some riff raff that all cities seem to attract.

I have seen warnings from people who use statistics on small samples, getting skewed results, although their math is correct.

Just the other day, I saw somebody try use the recent spike in homicides in Rosarito, 10 homicides in the month of January, 2016 to engage in fear mongering against the city of Rosarito.

They used the 10 homicides in January, and early February to extrapolate the other 11 months of the years, and they came up with an estimated total homicide rate for Rosarito, of more than 100 a year! Others in this group, started saying things like, " this would put Rosarito" on par as one of the most dangerous cities in the world, rivalling cites in Venezuela, and Brazil! ( both countries have cities that top the most dangerous cities in the world list)

Of course it's hogwash, and fear mongering at it's worst.

Here is why the FBI warns against these type of rankings:

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/...


[Edited on 2-11-2016 by JoeJustJoe]

bajacamper - 2-11-2016 at 07:44 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Gulliver  
You're so cute. I wish I had a camera.


Camera this!!

wessongroup - 2-11-2016 at 07:58 PM

Quote: Originally posted by bajaguy  
I'm sure this will generate comments

http://www.semaforo.mx/content/tasa-de-homicidios-por-ciudad...


Think these numbers speak for themselves ... if they are incorrect perhaps individuals who know them to be false should contact Agency in Mexico and point that out to those that collect and put out the numbers, in writing and/or publish them and help them out with the correct way to count :):)

[Edited on 2-12-2016 by wessongroup]

bajaguy - 2-11-2016 at 08:05 PM

I guess they only count the bodies they can find
Quote: Originally posted by wessongroup  
Think these numbers speak for themselves ... if they are incorrect perhaps individuals who know them to be false should contact Agency in Mexico and point that out to those that collect and put out the numbers, in writing and/or publish them and help them out with the correct way to count :):)

[Edited on 2-12-2016 by wessongroup]

josesbox - 2-17-2016 at 11:25 PM

Thats just how homicides are calculated. It wouldn't matter if there were only ten people living in a particular town and one year one was killed. It would still be recorded on a per 100,000 basis so you know the chances of being murdered in a particular area.

Bob and Susan - 2-18-2016 at 06:37 AM

let's do the math...

Number of homicides / Population) x 100,000 = homicides Rate Per 100,000
from joe...

the data says it's from the year 2015

this equates to...

(number of homicides) X = (homicides rate 6.8)/100,000)*(population 3800)

X (or number of homicides) = .2584 in that year

this is just "yellow journalism" to excite the masses
all numbers can be "fixed"

come on...a .2584 person???

oh yea I think this last census the pop of mulege raised to 3800 but I could be wrong...check my math

again just because it's posted on the internet DOESN'T make it a true fact

BigBearRider - 2-18-2016 at 01:55 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Bob and Susan  
let's do the math...

Number of homicides / Population) x 100,000 = homicides Rate Per 100,000
from joe...

the data says it's from the year 2015

this equates to...

(number of homicides) X = (homicides rate 6.8)/100,000)*(population 3800)

X (or number of homicides) = .2584 in that year

this is just "yellow journalism" to excite the masses
all numbers can be "fixed"

come on...a .2584 person???

oh yea I think this last census the pop of mulege raised to 3800 but I could be wrong...check my math

again just because it's posted on the internet DOESN'T make it a true fact


Again, I think "Mulege" refers not to the town, but the municipality. This makes sense in light of the fact that each of the municipalities in BCS is listed. Mulege includes about 60,000 people, according to Wikipedia.


[Edited on 2-18-2016 by BigBearRider]

Gulliver - 2-18-2016 at 07:21 PM

Yes, Mulege includes Santa Rosalie, Viscaino and Guererro Negro and all points in between.

In official documents the village of Mulege is referred to as Heroica Mulege.

And as to referring this sleepy place as a village, an afternoon hanging out in the square watching the sparrows will prove my case.

durrelllrobert - 2-20-2016 at 06:21 PM

Quote: Originally posted by bajaguy  
Common Core new math

Quote: Originally posted by SFandH  
Interesting, sort of.

I have a question, Mulege is listed as 6.8 homicides per 100 thousand inhabitants. The sign on the highway says Mulege has a population of 3000 people.

Where does 6.8 come from?
Just means that IF Muelge did have a population of 100,000 the number of homocides would be 33x higher, or 225.8

wessongroup - 2-20-2016 at 07:01 PM

Amazing how that works .... ^^