BajaNomad

long term out look for the peso?

joerover - 2-16-2016 at 03:14 PM

That is a question, not the answer.

Will the peso continue to shrink, or will it recover?

Sweetwater - 2-16-2016 at 03:37 PM

JR,
Just another opinion here.
As long as OIL is below $40 barrel, the Canadian and Mexican denominations are in bad condition. The US has caused a global oversupply with it's production and it won't end in the next year. Perhaps 2017 will bring a different story but as long as production stays so far above demand, producing nations who rely on it will have weak currencies. The energy sector in the USA is the reason the S&P 500 did not rise last year, if subtracted out, it would have risen by 5.6% or so.

SFandH - 2-16-2016 at 03:43 PM

I was thinking there is a direct relationship between the cost of oil and the value of the peso too. But then I found this:

"While the oil industry is still relevant for the government's budget, its importance in GDP and exports has steadily fallen since the 1980s. In 1980 oil exports accounted for 61.6% of total exports; by 2000 it was only 7.3%"

A bit surprising, but the cost oil is a factor, just smaller than I thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Mexico#Oil


[Edited on 2-16-2016 by SFandH]

4x4abc - 2-16-2016 at 05:34 PM

no matter what influences prices, taxes, currencies etc - none of is is involved.
We are just in for the ride.
So, who cares?
Have a Margarita!

micah202 - 2-16-2016 at 05:45 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Sweetwater  
JR,
Just another opinion here.
As long as OIL is below $40 barrel, the Canadian and Mexican denominations are in bad condition.


....I'd go with this,,,US currency is in effect getting stronger rather than peso dropping,,, makes a difference <;-/

woody with a view - 2-16-2016 at 07:04 PM

posited?

word of the day!

mtgoat666 - 2-16-2016 at 07:19 PM

Quote: Originally posted by joerover  
That is a question, not the answer.

Will the peso continue to shrink, or will it recover?



If you could reliably predict that you could be a billionaire. Don't quit your job and become a currency trader, the market is smarter than you!

My sage advice: the peso will decline long term (years) relative to the dollar. But if trump is elected, the dollar will be worthless overnight. I suggest you put all your money in gold or pork bellies until the election is over. Mark my word!

DENNIS - 2-16-2016 at 07:34 PM


Forecasting currency value is like forecasting weather.

SFandH - 2-16-2016 at 07:46 PM

Spending a few days in quaint and charming Tijuana. 18.4 pesos per dollar at the corner OXXO. 75 pesos for a 6 pack of Tecate. Same as it has been for a long time. Life is good.

CortezBlue - 2-16-2016 at 08:23 PM

One other issue is the fact that oil is purchased in US dollars only and with the dollar being strong other currencies have to buy dollars which also eats into their purchasing power therefore reducing the value.

joerover - 2-17-2016 at 11:19 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Sweetwater  
JR,
Just another opinion here.
As long as OIL is below $40 barrel, the Canadian and Mexican denominations are in bad condition. The US has caused a global oversupply with it's production and it won't end in the next year. Perhaps 2017 will bring a different story but as long as production stays so far above demand, producing nations who rely on it will have weak currencies. The energy sector in the USA is the reason the S&P 500 did not rise last year, if subtracted out, it would have risen by 5.6% or so.


oil is low to hurt putin?

dennis
read the farmers almanac, the weathyer can be predicted

margarita guy, wasted pixels slow the rotation of the earth
Quote: Originally posted by 4x4abc  
no matter what influences prices, taxes, currencies etc - none of is is involved.
We are just in for the ride.
So, who cares?
Have a Margarita!


[Edited on 2-17-2016 by joerover]

Bajahowodd - 2-17-2016 at 06:24 PM

My step son is a commodities trader on Wall Street who specializes in energy. His opinion is that if after these many years of so-called Mexican pride about the government run Pemex will allow foreign companies to once again enter the market and bring superior technology and knowledge to be able to tap the huge reserves of Mexico in the Gulf of Mexico, the Peso will more than rebound. There are huge reserves there, that if Mexico will only allow foreigners to share would be a boon.

Currently, Pemex does not have the equipment, nor the technology to obtain.

monoloco - 2-17-2016 at 06:56 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Bajahowodd  
My step son is a commodities trader on Wall Street who specializes in energy. His opinion is that if after these many years of so-called Mexican pride about the government run Pemex will allow foreign companies to once again enter the market and bring superior technology and knowledge to be able to tap the huge reserves of Mexico in the Gulf of Mexico, the Peso will more than rebound. There are huge reserves there, that if Mexico will only allow foreigners to share would be a boon.

Currently, Pemex does not have the equipment, nor the technology to obtain.
It would probably be safer to invest at the black jack table in Las Vegas than bet on a rebounding peso.

micah202 - 2-17-2016 at 07:12 PM

Quote: Originally posted by monoloco  
It would probably be safer to invest at the black jack table in Las Vegas than bet on a rebounding peso.



...how about one of those casino's in La Paz,,,peso's afterall :yawn:


.