BajaNomad

BAJA SUR..HURRICANE JAVIER

BAJA.DESERT.RAT - 8-7-2016 at 06:16 PM

hola,

BE PREPARED !!! HURRICANE JAVIER

JAMES H

http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2016/08/07/tropical-storm-jav...

bajabuddha - 8-7-2016 at 06:20 PM

It's only going to be a tropical storm, hence the name, but will bring a punch to Abreojos, Asuncion and Mulege. Git yer galoshes ready!

Zola - 8-8-2016 at 12:29 AM

It is now forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, then land on the west coast near Todos Santos or stay just offshore and downgrade to a tropical storm, then come ashore near the Magdelana Bay, then become a tropical storm and dissipate as a remnant low track over water near Punta Abreojos. We might get a lot of rain. They had catastrophic rains in southern Mexico from Tropical Storm Earl, whose remnant low then became part of Javier. Everyone should keep their eyes trained on the reports!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP1+shtml/080553....

[Edited on 8-8-2016 by Zola]

Zola - 8-8-2016 at 12:38 AM

Here is a pretty useful link too: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-storm-ja...

We are in San Juanico, where the water must be well below 26 Celsius (78.8 fahrenheit). It is maybe 20-22 Celcius because of persistent afternoon seabreezes that have induced upwelling. But there is a lot of water at 24 degrees off the coast and just to the south, if I am not mistaken. 26 degree water stops at around Puerto San Carlos to the south.

chippy - 8-8-2016 at 06:03 AM

Its a wet one for sure. We got over 10 inches from Javier as it passed Jalisco.

shari - 8-8-2016 at 06:17 AM

As often happens, hurricanes are lured over to the gulf by warmer waters and we just watch the rain clouds pass us by here in Asuncion. The models usually point to us as receiving weather but it rarely happens that way as we have cool water...this year the ocean hasnt warmed up like the last 2 years so there is even less chance of a storm reaching us...another of the great advantages to living on the Pacside of central baja.

Sr.Budda...I bet a 6 pack we get nuttin....maybe 30 knots of wind on the opening day of the Traditional fiestas.

For those of you down south...be ready for the storm....you know the drill, water, beer, candles, food, gas, $$$ in case of power outages

rogbag - 8-8-2016 at 06:28 AM

It came ashore about 7 AM in a big way - lotsa thunder & lightning. Los Barriles needs the rain, so that's okay. Dry under my palapa so far.

cj5orion - 8-8-2016 at 06:39 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Zola  
Here is a pretty useful link too: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-storm-ja...

Holy Moly !
commercials---commercial videos----popups
get enough of that on tv and radio

tiotomasbcs - 8-8-2016 at 06:58 AM

Gracias, Amigos. Over here on the Pacific we've awakened to dark. cloudy skies. Rained pretty good for 5 mins but I've got a feeling...like the Beatles said. Don't ignore us, Buddha and thanks for a good update Zola! Water temps here in Pescadero a beautiful 80 degrees. Batten down the hatches?! Tio

Russ - 8-8-2016 at 07:14 AM

I was planning to return home Thursday. As Sherri mentioned the forecasts are usually wrong. I'm really hoping that is the case this time. It doesn't take much rain to destroy the Chivato road so any reports from there after tomorrow would be a big help. Good luck to all!

SFandH - 8-8-2016 at 07:26 AM

Today's Youtube uploads for javier baja

https://www.youtube.com/results?sp=EgIIAg%253D%253D&q=ja...

Zola - 8-8-2016 at 10:50 AM

@cj5orion,

I posted the accuweather link because it had the useful chart that shows the projected area of heavy rainfall, which will likely be the principal hazard of this storm.

According to the National Hurricane Service, Javier will likely remain a strong tropical storm as its center passes over or just offshore the tip of the Baja Coast today. On current trends, it is expected to track up the Pacific Coast offshore of southern and central Baja from Tuesday to Thursday, remaining a tropical storm and then becoming a depression later this week.

The forecast calls for rains of 3 to 6 inches with as much as 10 inches of rains in the mountains and foothills. The winds likely will be those of a tropical storm, then lesser after the system degenerates into a depression. That is when it might dump the most rain, if I am not mistaken!

Everyone in the area should remain aware of what is happening with the storm!

The water is cooler this season for sure, and the waters in the Gulf of California are much warmer and above the 26 degree threshold, and so maybe that will affect the ultimate trajectory of the storm. We will all find out soon enough!

pacificobob - 8-8-2016 at 11:00 AM

Quote: Originally posted by tiotomasbcs  
Gracias, Amigos. Over here on the Pacific we've awakened to dark. cloudy skies. Rained pretty good for 5 mins but I've got a feeling...like the Beatles said. Don't ignore us, Buddha and thanks for a good update Zola! Water temps here in Pescadero a beautiful 80 degrees. Batten down the hatches?! Tio


thanks for the report tomas. those of us with homes there appreciate first-hand reports from folks in pesky. be safe.

woody with a view - 8-8-2016 at 11:01 AM

There is a low pressure over the SW USA with its counter clockwise rotation will pull Javier towards it.

cj5orion - 8-8-2016 at 11:44 AM

Zola...no harm intended !

kinda "funny"...
sailflow shows it dissipating up the Cortez.
Nat. Hurricane Center shows it going up the Pacific Coast.

guess we'll see ?

bajabuddha - 8-8-2016 at 02:07 PM

Quote: Originally posted by shari  


Sr.Budda...I bet a 6 pack we get nuttin....maybe 30 knots of wind on the opening day of the Traditional fiestas.



We'll just do the six-pack anyway, first one's on me. Hope you get a sprinkle or two, nothing more. It's Mulege I worry about; its' supposed to 'dissipate' there and the catcher's mitt behind the town is a geographical nightmare for rain. Y'all be safe.

SFandH - 8-8-2016 at 03:17 PM

I read 10 inches in the mountains. The article didn't indicate the latitude but there's a huge watershed that empties into Mulege.

chuckie - 8-8-2016 at 03:51 PM

They may have 10inches in the mountains and there is a big drainage into Mulege

bajabuddha - 8-8-2016 at 04:07 PM

THREE IN A ROW !!

chuckie - 8-8-2016 at 04:26 PM

Yeah...I thought I'd make it like the never ending LS diesel thread...

chivatojoe - 8-8-2016 at 06:51 PM

Well as they say timing is everything. Just listening to some ranchers in the hills west of Palo Verde (Chivato:no: ) and they were saying how terrible the drought was and that many of their cattle were dying. So hope the area does get some much needed rain but at a CONTROLABLE rate if that is possible?

shari - 8-9-2016 at 06:22 AM

I was hoping for some local real time updates this morning...or is the internet out down below? anybody......????

we have a few bands of cloud reaching us up here in Asuncion this morning but the sun just rose and it is glorious!

SFandH - 8-9-2016 at 07:09 AM

Mulege webcam:

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-mulege.html

bajalinda - 8-9-2016 at 07:19 AM

Shari - we have light mist here (La Aguja) - not even what I'd call rain, just enough to make the water spouts run with the run-off from the roof. It's 8:15 now - the mist stuff started around 5AM. It looks like Javier, or what is left of Javier. is a tad south or maybe just about even with us here (between Todos Santos and Mag Bay). Our power was out for a while yesterday afternoon, but came back on and has been fine since then.

That said, we could still get heavier rain throughout the day.

From eebmike:
Deep convection associated with Javier has dissipated overnight and
the cyclone now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.
It has been very difficult to locate the center overnight, but
satellite and surface observations suggest that it is located near
or over the southern Baja California peninsula.

[Edited on 8-9-2016 by bajalinda]

vandenberg - 8-9-2016 at 07:20 AM

Quote: Originally posted by shari  
I was hoping for some local real time updates this morning...or is the internet out down below? anybody......????

we have a few bands of cloud reaching us up here in Asuncion this morning but the sun just rose and it is glorious!


Pretty heavy rain here in Loreto for the last hour. Enough to interfere with the satellite system.
Hope the Ranchers in the mountains get some of this.
Don't believe this system is severe enough to be a danger to Mulege. Let's at least hope so.

shari - 8-9-2016 at 07:31 AM

thank you so much for the updates...hopefully this rain pleases the ranchers!

Mulegé, Tuesday Aug.9, 9 a.m.

Mulegena - 8-9-2016 at 08:09 AM

Passed the night with clear, starry skies, little-to no wind.

Awoke to renewed blustery wind from the east, heavy-clouded sky and a fragrance of moisture in the air. No rain yet.

Mexican Fishermen are pulling their pangas out.

shari - 8-9-2016 at 08:20 AM

thanks Maria....that's the report I was waiting on and tomorrow I will await Blancas to see what's coming our way (and if i will win that 6 pack!) I hope your garden gets watered nicely.

perfectly clear skies now at 9;30 in Asuncion and warming up

tiotomasbcs - 8-9-2016 at 11:01 AM

It's almost noon and stil raining lightly, Amiga. 2am the wind slammed into Pescadero 35/45mph. no damage. Blustery with a few whitecaps but easing off now. All the ground is saturated. Hooray. TV, Internet, luz all intact. I was posting on TalkBaja earlier--Ron has put up some great visuals. Todo Bien. Tomas

Javier

alacran - 8-9-2016 at 11:27 AM

Thus far Javier has not come by here. All bone dry, in Mulege.

Bob and Susan - 8-9-2016 at 12:12 PM

here on the bay in mulege...just a light rain

enough to make the road muddy

we won't need to water the plants today

the 2 times I went to town today it rained off and on
not bad though ...a lot cooler

1 pm Tuesday Mulegé Pueblo

Mulegena - 8-9-2016 at 01:19 PM

Correction: The pangueros did NOT remove their boats from the water. They all met and decided it wasn't needed. Business as usual tomorrow.

The sky remains overcast and the air is moist but no rain, no wind, no sounds of birds.

Unless Noah and his Ark sail around the Lighthouse and up-river, I'm calling this a non-event for Mulegé. Town-central got no rain from this system.

BAJA.DESERT.RAT - 8-9-2016 at 01:29 PM

Hola nomads in javier's path,

here is a report from yahoo news today. it's not better than reports from nomads in javier's path though.

i hope everybody will be safe in javier's path as he weakens...hopefully.

BIEN SALUD, DA RAT

Javier weakens to tropical depression off Mexico's Pacific coast
Published August 09, 2016EFE

Mexico City – Tropical Storm Javier was downgraded to a tropical depression as it weakened in the Pacific Ocean off Mexico's Baja California Sur state, the Mexican National Weather Service, or SMN, said Tuesday.

Javier was located 85 kilometers (53 miles) northwest of Cabo San Lucas, a resort city in Baja California Sur, at 7:00 a.m., the SMN said.

The tropical depression is moving northwest at nine kph (about six mph), with maximum sustained winds of 55 kph (34 mph) and gusts of up to 75 kph (46 mph).

Javier could regain strength and become a tropical storm again by Tuesday afternoon, but it is expected to later weaken and dissipate within the next 24 hours, forecasters said.

The storm is expected to affect Baja California Sur, Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco and Colima states, dumping heavy rains in some areas, the SMN said.

Residents in the affected states should monitor weather bulletins, the weather service said.



Mula - 8-9-2016 at 02:47 PM

A few rain showers during the day starting at 10 this morning.
Cool and humid. Still dark and cloudy.
Probably another shower or 2.

Pretty much of a non-event here in Lopez Mateos. Yeah!

tiotomasbcs - 8-9-2016 at 05:39 PM

Very thankful for all the rain. 1/2 -2inches! Rained all day today till 2pm! Pescadero was pretty closed down with Taquerias and markets closed. Power went out for a few hours and back on now. We scored w/o any wind damage! Sunset may be Awesome! Smiles Tio

bajalinda - 8-9-2016 at 05:53 PM

Pretty much of a non-event here also. Nice steady light rain in the afternoon and no wind. we are back to a fine mist falling and completely socked in skies. Things are already looking green with the dust washed off of everything. Countryside should be looking spectacularly green in a few days.

Zola - 8-9-2016 at 10:10 PM

Here in San Juanico it became a little humid this afternoon, and then by late afternoon it was overcast with some rainclouds, and we had episodic sprinkles but nothing that can qualify even as showers, let alone rain.

Mula - 8-10-2016 at 05:13 AM

Still drizzling here in Lopez Mateos this morning.

Russ - 8-10-2016 at 06:54 AM

Looks like the fizzle factor struck again! Hope to head home Fri. Will post a happy sunrise very soon :lol:

[Edited on 8-10-2016 by Russ]

BajaBlanca - 8-10-2016 at 07:09 AM

very cloudy in La Bocana this morning. Wonderfully cool.

hurricane? what hurricane? we never saw it.

My students in La Paz said lots of rain and college classes cancelled - they were bummed because they wanted to still be here being pampered by family LOL

shari - 8-10-2016 at 08:12 AM

I see your clouds Blanca but we are in the sun out here in Asuncion for awhile longer anyway...I am getting closer to winning a couple six packs!

Sirenita, Julio and the new Santiago are on their way here to spend a few days and enjoy the Traditional Fiestas that start tomorrow...gonna be a loooooong few days!

wetto - 8-10-2016 at 09:34 AM

Nice to see little to no rain/mud for Mulege.
Storage Trailer, Boat ,etc. get to stay in place for the current time.

Saying my mantra for no more close calls this season, while prepared to move them to high ground just in case.

One extra margarita today to celebrate good fortune!

shari - 8-10-2016 at 09:43 AM

this was just a dress rehearsal for the real show coming in September!

Babsy - 8-10-2016 at 09:56 AM

Cloudy and overcast here in Mulege. Cooler temp this am. Think Javier decided to pass us by. Gracias Javier!

Zola - 8-10-2016 at 11:22 AM

In San Juanico, it is completely socked in, and there has been light drizzle on and off from early this morning onward.

Zola - 8-10-2016 at 12:28 PM

In San Juanico, it is completely socked in, and there has been light drizzle on and off from early this morning onward.

ghost

huesos - 8-13-2016 at 07:52 PM

Eebmike shows no trace of this J storm and lists it only as a numbered TS 2 estimating 10% probability and moving straight West. Who is running the program at Fox news?

ehall - 8-14-2016 at 05:08 AM

Weird. Baja got very little rain from the storm but it is blamed for pushing moisture into Az. I got 2 1/2 inches of rain and winds over 80mph. Lost 2 trees and a couple concrete shingles.