BajaNomad - Katia, irma, Jose

Katia, irma, Jose

joerover - 9-8-2017 at 12:04 PM

three in a row

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Map shows 3 hurricans in a row headed for Mexico, Texas, Florida.

last week it was the highest temp ever recordrd in San Francisco. (106). Also last week, highest wind speed ever recorded in an Atlantic hurricane (185 mph).

Hows your karma Nomad?

[Edited on 9-9-2017 by joerover]

tiotomasbcs - 9-8-2017 at 01:17 PM

And Cabo almost had 50 inches of rain in 2/3 days!? Tsunami warnings. And strange, gross bugs invading Baja!

Dios Nos Bendiga! Tio

Sandlefoot - 9-8-2017 at 07:56 PM

Been going on for a long time now!!! Your info did not feel right so I googled it. Took two seconds to come up with new information!

"Hurricane with the Highest Wind Speed at Landfall in United States History. Hurricane Camille of 1969 had the highest wind speed at landfall at an estimated 190 miles per hour when it struck the Mississippi coast. This wind speed at landfall is the highest ever recorded worldwide."

Happy Trails

Gscott - 9-8-2017 at 11:28 PM

Making up for lost time I guess, coming off the record 4323 days without a hurricane making landfall in the US..

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/major-us-hu...

mtgoat666 - 9-9-2017 at 04:12 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Gscott

Making up for lost time I guess, coming off the record 4323 days without a hurricane making landfall in the US..

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/major-us-hu...

CNS News?

greengoes - 9-9-2017 at 04:20 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Gscott

Making up for lost time I guess, coming off the record 4323 days without a hurricane making landfall in the US..

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/major-us-hu...

11.8 years and no hurricane making landfall doesn't sound right. :?:

woody with a view - 9-9-2017 at 04:37 AM

Meanwhile in SD it was a below average summer based on daily temps. Random high temps mean nothing.

TMW - 9-9-2017 at 09:58 AM

The end is near, the end is near, the end is near. Oh my goodness what will we do.

Mexitron - 9-9-2017 at 10:30 AM

Its why the scientists can't say this event or that event or even the seemingly large cluster of heat waves, fires, and hurricanes this year means anything as far as GW. That data has to be titrated out against past weather averages for comparison and, I gather, is mostly in retrospect. Only thing I've seen surmised is higher water content in the atmosphere could have added extra precip to the hurricanes.

EnsenadaDr - 9-9-2017 at 11:34 AM

Now Irma has been downgraded to Category 3 "momentarily" because of the landfall on Cuba slowing it down. Looks like it might bypass Miami and head Florida's west coast. I can just hear all those evacuees mumbling under their breath, another bust weather forecast. For the good of all in Florida let's hope it just keeps weakening. How do they know that Irma is going to make a 90 degree turn suddenly and head up the Florida coast instead of continuing on its path? I know currents and all predict that but in this case does anyone have any idea?

woody with a view - 9-9-2017 at 11:46 AM

NWS can't predict where a storm will go 5 days in advance with anything more than 50% accuracy. Why do people believe those same predictors can forecast global warming/climate change in 20, 50 or 100 years from now?

Sorry for the hijack!

edit: the storms go directionally based on the Coriolis Effect, nearby High or Low pressure weather systems and the jet stream. Warn water is needed to form a hurricane but does not act like a magnet or, in any way, steer the storm.

[Edited on 9-9-2017 by woody with a view]

BajaNaranja - 9-9-2017 at 12:06 PM

Seems to me, man-made global warming skeptics often don't appreciate how relatively thin the earth's atmosphere is.

The air above our heads is actually a very thin skin (three quarters of Earth's atmosphere [by mass] is within about 7 miles of the surface, or ~36,000 feet). Once you understand how thin our atmosphere is, then it becomes easier to imagine how burning fossil fuels on a massive scale since the start of the industrial revolution, coupled with exploding human population, could unleash relatively huge amounts of CO2 and alter the climate.

Blah blah blah, here's a picture showing how precious little atmosphere we have:

But, like seemingly every topic these days, we all seek out information that backs our pre-existing bias. So only with time and further degradation of the natural world will we hopefully come to greater consensus on what effect 7 billion people and counting have on our planet.

[Edited on 9-9-2017 by BajaNaranja]

EnsenadaDr - 9-9-2017 at 12:12 PM

Still that 90 degree angle at Florida's tip has me wondering how and when the hurricane is going change course when it has been on a relatively straight path this whole way. I just hate to see people spend thousands of dollars evacuating and losing work time because of a faulty hurricane warning system that at times is wrong. People have been driving up to Georgia to avoid this thing. I wish forecasts could be a little more reliable. Let's see what happens in the next 24 hours it will be interesting for sure. It has captivated the whole world's attention according to my niece in Ireland.

Alm - 9-9-2017 at 12:21 PM

Quote: Originally posted by woody with a view

NWS can't predict where a storm will go 5 days in advance with anything more than 50% accuracy. Why do people believe those same predictors can forecast global warming/climate change in 20, 50 or 100 years from now?

1 - yes.
2 - oh, c'mon... they don't "forecast" these things for 50 years from now - not the way they do it with storms. They see patterns, trends.

Some big quake or an asteroid strike could throw these trends off course like it did in Mesosoic era when it wiped out the dinosaurs and much of the rest of life on the planet. Doesn't mean the trends don't exist.

Quake killed 40 people in Mexico 2 days ago, btw, magnitude 8.2.

mtgoat666 - 9-9-2017 at 01:38 PM

Quote: Originally posted by woody with a view

Answer: similar to earthquake predictions. Can't tell you the day and your of the big one, but can tell you it will happen!

Alm - 9-9-2017 at 02:59 PM

Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666

Answer: {climate change} similar to earthquake predictions. Can't tell you the day and your of the big one, but can tell you it will happen!

Kind of.
Different dynamics, different causes. With climate the consensus is that it "is" changing, not "will". Specifying the day in would be meaningless, given the scale. Since it's happening (relatively) slowly and they can't tell Joe Schmoe the "day", for him it's like a danger of a big quake in SoCal (or anywhere along the West coast), - don't want to hear about it until it comes.

[Edited on 9-9-2017 by Alm]

joerover - 9-9-2017 at 03:41 PM

I spent 4 seconds to get better info than you
"Hurricane Camille, 1969 - 175 mph"
This is sustained wind speed, not max gust.
Irma had a 215 mph gust.
http://www.businessinsider.com/strongest-atlantic-hurricanes...

Been going on for too long, your info was no good so the great spirit sent the big one towards your church. Scientology head quarters in Florida, Clearwater.

Quote: Originally posted by Sandlefoot

Been going on for a long time now!!! Your info did not feel right so I googled it. Took two seconds to come up with new information!

"Hurricane with the Highest Wind Speed at Landfall in United States History. Hurricane Camille of 1969 had the highest wind speed at landfall at an estimated 190 miles per hour when it struck the Mississippi coast. This wind speed at landfall is the highest ever recorded worldwide."

Happy Trails

chuckie - 9-9-2017 at 04:40 PM

All good info! Guaranteed to help us through this storm!

Keep on the Sunny Side

MrBillM - 9-9-2017 at 10:08 PM

A favorite Bumper-Sticker saying from years gone by was "I feel so much better now that I've given up hope".

Which is highly appropriate in the "Woe is We" climate-change debate.

Should the climate-change scenarios be correct and recent events are proof, we've already reached the point where (given a best-case world of harmonious cooperation) the positive effects of remediation efforts would take more years than most (or all) of us have left.

SO ................... "Don't Worry - Be Happy" ?

Wish the kids (and grand-kids) Buena Suerte.

Move inland to a higher elevation and visit the coastal areas ?

Knowing that you can drive faster than a Hurricane travels.

Cast aside fear and maintain a goodly supply of Beer.

Sweetwater - 9-9-2017 at 10:13 PM

And The End of Days folks look for more justification.
See you on the other side.
Can you leave now?

Alm - 9-10-2017 at 01:05 AM

Quote: Originally posted by MrBillM

...

I agree.

woody with a view - 9-10-2017 at 09:45 AM

Back on topic. Look out below!

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height

Alm - 9-10-2017 at 12:09 PM

If I see it correct on that map, 10-12ft surge is expected at FL southern tip. Less in other places.

So... back to Baja

...
In Central Baja after the strongest quake (for this area), magnitude 7.5, in Midrif, ~60 years ago, the height of tsunami was ~10ft in Baja and across the sea in Kino. Very little damage. Though, tsunami was a single short-lasting event, and there was not much infrastructure to damage.

SFandH - 9-10-2017 at 12:26 PM

Quote: Originally posted by EnsenadaDr

How do they know that Irma is going to make a 90 degree turn suddenly and head up the Florida coast instead of continuing on its path? I know currents and all predict that but in this case does anyone have any idea?

Why Irma turned north:

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/09/08/why-hurricanes-turn-nor...

woody with a view - 9-10-2017 at 03:22 PM

I rest my case! One surfer to the masses.

Taking Her Turn

MrBillM - 9-10-2017 at 09:33 PM

It was noted early this a.m. that the NHC model of five days back forecast accurately the track taken into the Keys and up the coast.

[Edited on 9-11-2017 by MrBillM]