BajaNomad - Predicting a 'chubasco'

Predicting a 'chubasco'

gringorio - 3-8-2005 at 06:21 AM

Predicting a chubasco

I have learned, possibly erroneously, from my Baja travels that a ?chubasco? is the ferocious offshore wind that can come out of nowhere with gusts over 50 mph or more. Looking on-line I also see that a chubasco refers to a tropical storm. Which is it? What I am wondering about are the localized chubasco?s.

For example, one July in Bahia de los Angeles, we experienced several hours of being pinned down in camp because of a tremendously powerful and hot offshore wind with gusts likely over 50mph. There was no rain associated with the winds and the skies were clear. We were told it was a ?chubasco.?

It was clear to us that you would not want to be caught out on the water during a chubasco. We heard the story about the Hobie Cat regatta in San Felipe one year. When everyone was on the water racing a ?chubasco? sprang up and blew many of the catamaran sailors well out to sea. Apparently several of the shrimp trawlers were called into action to go searching for them - everyone was rescued.

So finally, my main question: Are there ways to predict a chubasco? Looking for dust on the horizon? Barometric pressure changes?steadily rising or falling? Anything?

Thanks!

gringorio

Chubasco

Osprey - 3-8-2005 at 07:32 AM

Gringorio

A Chubasco is a squall. Down here in S. Baja when we get caught out in one while we're fishing, we wait it out. One hour is the usual big, bad wind so generally speaking, unless you're close to home, or running out of fuel, sit tight. Here's NOAA'S take on Chubascos
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/radar/part2/slide9.html

Chubasco

capn.sharky - 3-8-2005 at 07:55 AM

I was always under the impression that a chubasco (big, bad wind) was the result of a politico giving a speech are making promises to the poor in Mexico nearby. Here in So. Cal. when we get the Santa Ana winds, it is because some politican is nearby. The real bad ones (that are especially warm) are caused by a politican promising the voters he is not on the take. :lol:

I think chubasco is a term.....

Hook - 3-8-2005 at 08:30 AM

....many locals use for any big wind. It can be generated by tropical moisture or it can be close gradients between pressure systems.

The wind you experienced at BOLA was the dreaded elefante that doesnt seem to be created by any localized tropical moisture. It is caused by a combination of atmospheric pressure and topography, specifically the notch in the mountains that the road to BOLA follows.

The last time I experienced it (a June), I went to bed in BOLA at about 10 pm and it was about 75 degrees. I woke at about 3 am and the wind was blowing around 40-50 knots from the west.

It was 105 degree air.

I'm pretty sure that much of that dark, volcanic rock that is west of BOLA is responsible for holding that kind of heat well into the night.

One thing that would be very helpful in prediction would be for those of you who live down in Baja to regularly report conditions of significant interest (like rain, high winds, unusual dense fog) that you observe. Those of us up here could then begin to correlate those conditions with data we have at hand on the internet.

You will have to be very mindful of the elefante, Greg, when you traverse the BOLA area. It may also occur as far north as Guadalupe/Alcatraz. I'd hug the coast as far as La Gringa and see what's developing. It would be unfortunate to pass the BOLA area without paddling thru the close islands, at least.

I can verify that the landing beach on La Ventana is a safe harbor even in the fiercest elefante or the much-cooler northwest wind that can also reach 40 knots. The wind swell is blocked by Isla Flecha.

[Edited on 3-8-2005 by Hook]

[Edited on 3-8-2005 by Hook]

gringorio - 3-8-2005 at 08:30 AM

capn.sharky

I should have known!

My Suggestion

Skeet/Loreto - 3-8-2005 at 09:01 AM

1. Get a copy of the Baja Sea Guide; by Leland R. Lewis; 1971 Lib. Congress Number 71-173041.

There are several different types of Storms called "Chubasco"

"Chubasco" which occurs generallly at night and comes from the south and blows hard for about an Hour{all the Pangeros run to their Pangas and pull them up on the Beach}

"Chubasco" A strong West very Warm wind coming from aroun 270 Degrees and blowing above 25 Knots, usually about 55 MPH.
It blows over the Mountains, down the slopes and creates a "Rotor Zone" of boiling Type winds.{In Calif it is called "The sierra Wave condition"}
The owner of the Nutree airport Bought the Farm coming into Bay Of Los Angeles many years ago during such conditions. Tore the wings off of His Beechcraft!

Chubasco{Whip Storm} This is the most Dangerous and the most unpredicable. This is a small viloent Storm which forms in the Middle of the Sea Of Cortez usually mid Day and blows Inshore{Such as the one which Hit Loreto about 6 Years Ago on August 3rd{I think}.

The thing to remember on the Cortez is "If you hear it thunder and see no Clouds, get to shore as soon as Possible!!

Last thing is talk to the old timers like Alvarro Murillo, Manuel FerandeZ, some of the old shark fisherman have a Wealth of Knowledge.

Skeet/Loreto

sometimes a chingazo is easier to predict than a chubasco

BajaVida - 3-8-2005 at 09:29 AM

cubasco in La Paz

bajagrouper - 3-8-2005 at 10:20 AM

visit the bar on the second floor of the Los Arcos hotel and ask for a Cubasco,just 1 :bounce:

even worse

fdt - 3-8-2005 at 10:20 AM

would be a chubasco de chinazos :lol:

The Mexican people

jrbaja - 3-8-2005 at 12:56 PM

are predicting bad chubascos down here this year because of the unusual amount of rain we have been getting.

elgatoloco - 3-8-2005 at 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Hook
....many locals use for any big wind. It can be generated by tropical moisture or it can be close gradients between pressure systems.

The wind you experienced at BOLA was the dreaded elefante that doesnt seem to be created by any localized tropical moisture. It is caused by a combination of atmospheric pressure and topography, specifically the notch in the mountains that the road to BOLA follows.

The last time I experienced it (a June), I went to bed in BOLA at about 10 pm and it was about 75 degrees. I woke at about 3 am and the wind was blowing around 40-50 knots from the west.

It was 105 degree air.

I'm pretty sure that much of that dark, volcanic rock that is west of BOLA is responsible for holding that kind of heat well into the night.

[Edited on 3-8-2005 by Hook]

[Edited on 3-8-2005 by Hook]

Friction, not hot rocks, causes air temp to rise when wind blows and is compressed or 'falls' down the face of a mountain.

Agreed, EGL...

Hook - 3-8-2005 at 02:52 PM

...it's just that there wouldn't seem to be the amount of incline to account for that kind of heating.

But, maybe so. I'm no expert.

elgatoloco - 3-8-2005 at 03:03 PM

I'm no expert either! And those rocks get VERY hot! Maybe we need to go investigate further!

Growing up in the beautiful San Gabriel Valley of So Cal we learned that the Santa Anas were heated by friction and the smog was caused by sun.

speed times incline divided by availability of air conditioning equals heat index? :lol:

OK, now I get it...

gringorio - 3-8-2005 at 03:49 PM

Thanks for all the great information. A round of chubasco's for everyone!

I found this information:

"Katabatic winds exist in many parts of the World and are winds that flow from the high elevations of mountains, plateaus, and hills down their slopes to the valleys or planes below. There are many diffent names for katabatic winds depending where they are located. Some names are Foehn, Bora, and Chinook. See the definitions page for more .
Defintions page

A katabatic wind is also named a mountain breeze. In winter conditions, a downsloping wind can develope in the early moring when a pool of cold, high elevetion air begins to descend from the highlands due to the high density of the cold air. The landscape can channel and force the airflow to converge, causing it to strengthen. They are driven down slope by gravity, but the slopes are much more steep. The winds can reach heights of 500 to 600 meters (1640 to 1970 feet) above the surface, although this height varies. These types of winds can reach velocities of up to 4 meters per second. The rush of cold air down the slopes rapidly decreases the surrounding air temperature as it speeds down the topography to the valleys and planes below it. Katabatic winds are mostly synoptically triggered or they are activated by large scale weather features such as a high pressure system over the high elevations. It can also be effected by solar radiation (daylight) and radiational cooling (night). Katabatic winds are not always cold winds. During synoptic forcing, compressional warming can occur increasing the temperature of the winds as they descend the slopes. In a general case, an air parcel or an imaginary box surrounding an air mass, is allowed to rise in the atmosphere. As this box of air rises, it expands becoming less dense and releasing heat due to the release of water in the air mass. In the opposite case, an air parcel is allowed to descend in the atmosphere. As this air parcel descends, the air compresses becoming more dense due to the tightly packed molecules. These processes are known as expansional cooling and compressional warming respectively and comply with gas laws. Katabatic winds that are warm follow the compressional warming case. Katabatic winds that are cold are heavily high density air related. Cold air sinks while warm air rises, right? This is similar to high density air sinking and lower density air rising or at least moving for the higher density air."

source:

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/nebraska/stuproj/ametf99/wenzl/kata...

[Edited on 3-8-2005 by gringorio]

Those Mountain breezes

jrbaja - 3-8-2005 at 04:47 PM

picked up my 12 ft. Zodiac, complete with 20 horse Merc, gas tank, tackle box and ice chest and sent her off to Mexico. After realizing I couldnt catch it on the longboard, some pangueros saw what was going on and went and got it for me.
This was at \Bahia de los Angeles by the way.
The good part was, there werent any mosquitos!! :lol:

More Tales of Wind

Skeet/Loreto - 3-8-2005 at 05:54 PM

My Son and I sat out Hurricane Lisa in 1976{?} at Tio Don O'Neils Place next to the Hotel Oasis in Loreto. It did not hit Loreto but we had 85 Miles per Hour winds.

The Whip Storms are much harder at about 90 MPH.

On several Occasions on Trips South i have been in some 55 Mph Westiew around Bay Of Los Angeles, for you that are Pilots it is an an eperience to travel along the Sea Of Cortez in a 40 Degree
Crab.

If you are interested in the "Sierra Wave Effect" the Univ. of Nevada has all of Bob Simons Works as he studied the Wave for a number of years.
As the coll air comes over the Mountain and downslopes it picks up heat and Speed, as it contunes it goes into a rolling Motion causing what is know as "The Rotor Zone. The Sailplane Pilots I use to pull into the Zone were trying to get onto its Top so they could get Lift and go "High"

One Day out of Bishop, Calif I pulled Dan Schat aloft and dropped Him at 8,000 Ft whereby he went to 31,000 in a matter of Seconds.
I have picked up the Wave just North of Bay of Los Angeles and rode it all the way to Conception with my thottle in Idle doing 150 Ground Speed.

Prediction: If you are on the Water and you Sense a Change in the Water or Wind that seems to be unusual, it is in August, Listen to your Senses and go to Shore.

Skeet/Loreto

chubascos...

Pompano - 3-8-2005 at 06:07 PM

we have had lots of them here in Conception Bay in the last 30-odd years. The highest winds I recorded with my aeronometer were 90mph. A little turbulent. Happens in the warm months.

I was with my friend, Johnny Tequila, sailing his 32' trimaran, Questzal, into the bay when we were overtaken by a chubasco... the boat reached 25 knots before we could storm-reef sails. We were flying!! Exhilerating to say the least!

Of course, katabatic winds!

Hook - 3-8-2005 at 08:39 PM

......the Bahia is subject to both the compression and expansion types.

BOLA gets my vote as having the greatest variety of sudden microclimates on the peninsula. Whistling cold nor' westers, the Devil's Kitchen elefantes, tropical chubascos......and one of the most spontaneous fogs on water that you will ever see. This fog once formed on us in the channel between La Guardia and Smith (Coronado) and dropped the temp by about 20 degrees and the visibility to near zero. Impossible to outrun (though we saw it approaching from a distance), it literally formed around us as we ran. Some kind of general upwelling that supplanted the warmer surface water over a wide area.

The next day we had the 30 degree change at 3 am.

SO glad this thread turned serious again. I was beginning to wonder about this site.....

chubascos

BajaDanD - 3-8-2005 at 10:05 PM

We were in BOLA early Sep. one year when we got off our boat at around 5:00pm it was Around 90 degrees. we ate dinner and sat down to relax when the wind picked up. it blew until 1:00AM the air temp at 1:00 was 107 then the wind stopped dead and the bugs started to come out we were camping at Gecko in a tent. It was way too hot in the tent for me. I covered myself with 100% deet and layed out on a cot. My wife stayed in the tent. The bugs buzzed me all night Now My wife thinks BOLA is not such a nice place. Got to get her back there in May/June.

Ground rules for Predicting

Skeet/Loreto - 3-9-2005 at 08:25 AM

Has anyone made up any Ground /Water rules for Predicting a Storm around Bay Of Los Angeles?

In Loreto we had the benefit of being able to Read the Wave Action from the North whic many times will give you a clue about the Winds later in the Day.

On the South Storms we were able to see the Clouds coming.

In the Summer with large thunderboomers over the Mountains you could watch the Movement but when an Easty Storm came across many times it Would stop at the Isla of Carmen, lots of Lighting and thunder,

Skeet/Loreto

David K - 3-9-2005 at 08:37 AM

Doc at Camp Gecko will tell you that clouds hugging the top of the sierra ridge indicate wind will come that day... all the fishermen use that as a sign to stay off the gulf.

Barry A. - 3-10-2005 at 12:51 PM

David------

I too have heard that indicator given, and have used it exclusively over the past 45 years to avoid the outer bay when it is seen. Even in a 14 foot Gregor the sea can become really exciting if you get caught out there in a big blow. We stay on shore, or very close to it, when the clowds hug the Sierra tops at BOLA. If caught at sea when the Big Blow comes we always head for the lee of one of the islands and hang out until it subsides. If no island is nearby, then we head into the waves, position yourself amidships using an extension handle on the outboard (the wind can flip you end over end), maintaining minimum control and forward motion with the engine, and turn on the bilge pump (if you do not have a partner to bail with a bucket), and wait it out in this mode until it subsides. Life is always interesting at BOLA, and we never fight the weather!! Go with the flow, and stay alert!!!

We have never encountered the fog spoken of, tho. That would be bazaar!!! Barry