BajaNomad - Cruise ship - again

Cruise ship - again

Alm - 3-7-2020 at 10:15 AM

The story still goes on:Grand Princess ordered to dock at undisclosed port.

Very few details anywhere on the previous Mexico voyage of this ship where one passenger died later. Not clear what ports it called and what skipped, but the consensus is now that Mexico wasn't the source. Appears to be a community transmission within the ship. Like one professor said, “a perfect petri dish for spreading disease.” Surprisingly many people are not getting the message - avoid crowds.

ZipLine - 3-7-2020 at 10:57 AM

Sorry, just can't get excited about it. A lot of people are wetting their pants over nothing.

If people want to get excited, read this from the CDC.gov :

While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 –

61,000 deaths annually

since 2010.

ZipLine - 3-7-2020 at 10:59 AM

That's their number, just for the USA.

Don't go outside. EVER.

BajaTed - 3-7-2020 at 12:01 PM

Quote: Originally posted by ZipLine

Sorry, just can't get excited about it. A lot of people are wetting their pants over nothing.

If people want to get excited, read this from the CDC.gov :

While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 –

61,000 deaths annually

since 2010.

61000 divided by 365 is around a 167 deaths per day from the flu, with the media frenzy going on about anything flu like this just aint happening either.

Alm - 3-7-2020 at 12:30 PM

Quote: Originally posted by ZipLine

That's their number, just for the USA.

Don't go outside. EVER.

Avoiding crowds is a common recommendation during flu season (and there are other recommendations as well). Downplaying an epidemic is not a good idea, usually.

Edit-PS: here is what makes Covid 19 a serious threat - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-coronavirus-health-who/co...

[Edited on 3-7-2020 by Alm]

BajaMama - 3-8-2020 at 11:24 AM

For anyone comparing influenza to corona virus mortality rate, please note the statistical facts: death rate of influenza: 0.14%. Coronavirus: 3.44%. That is 2506% INCREASE in mortality rate. If the coronavirus spreads as easily as the flu (and it looks like it does) 1,568,000 Americans will die. Last year 61,000 died from the flu.

ZipLine - 3-8-2020 at 12:28 PM

That's okay. Convince yourself that 1.5 million people in the USA are going to die from it.

Note that people with the virus, with light symptoms, DO NOT REPORT - so are not in the statistics, thus the elevated mortality rate.

Go ahead. Wet your pants like an anxious puppy on the carpet. Excuse me while I cough... Then I'm going out to hoard toilet paper that I can sell to YOU for $100 a roll. :bounce:

[Edited on 3-8-2020 by ZipLine]

ZipLine - 3-8-2020 at 12:36 PM

Stop, take a breath. Calm down.

Think a bit. If you had a light cold, are you going to run down to a local clinic/hospital and demand a COVID-19 test, so you can be quarantined for two weeks? Or just get over it and hope/figure it was just a cold?

Yeah. I thought so.

motoged - 3-8-2020 at 01:03 PM

Zip,
So....are you the guy writing trump's public pandemic responses?

Hook - 3-8-2020 at 03:11 PM

Quote: Originally posted by BajaMama

For anyone comparing influenza to corona virus mortality rate, please note the statistical facts: death rate of influenza: 0.14%. Coronavirus: 3.44%. That is 2506% INCREASE in mortality rate. If the coronavirus spreads as easily as the flu (and it looks like it does) 1,568,000 Americans will die. Last year 61,000 died from the flu.

Well, a few things here:

1-the mortality rate of Covid-19 is very likely to diminish as we discover that there will be many people who will have contracted it, had mild or no symptoms, and arent being counted. Persons with more severe symptoms make their way to medical facilities and are being counted. So, in many cases, only the worst cases are being counted.

2-the number tested is quite low, due to the problems with rolling out the test kits to replace the faulty ones. That is changing rapidly, or so it is reported.

3-the mortality rate is also likely higher because the average age contracting this is higher than the average age of the population. This is mostly due to the fact that travelers to foreign countries have a higher percentage of contracting it AND elderly people tend to travel more than the overall population.

I am making no predictions on where this is going, what political party will spin this to their advantage (both!) or whether it is the end of civilization, as we know it. I'm just pointing out that the stats are very skewed right now, for a number of reasons.

And, of course, this assumes that stats from China can even be believed.......

caj13 - 3-9-2020 at 06:04 AM

Quote: Originally posted by ZipLine

That's okay. Convince yourself that 1.5 million people in the USA are going to die from it.

Note that people with the virus, with light symptoms, DO NOT REPORT - so are not in the statistics, thus the elevated mortality rate.

Go ahead. Wet your pants like an anxious puppy on the carpet. Excuse me while I cough... Then I'm going out to hoard toilet paper that I can sell to YOU for $100 a roll. :bounce:

[Edited on 3-8-2020 by ZipLine]

Zippys right.
we know for a fact any one and every one with flu symptoms gets tested, while those with mild symptoms of Covid19 do not get tested. So that, of course, makes comparing the 2 rates of infection bogus!

And while we are at it, since Zippy seems fixated on the Number of Deaths due to flu, as compared to Covid 19, we, of course, should ignore the fact that far more people are infected with the flu - right? and there certainly is no way for the Corona Virus to continue to infect.
one of the medical / transmission issues we have right now is precisely those untested, unconfirmed Mild cases. Those people continue to circulate in the general public, not knowing that they are potential vectors (or not caring if you prefer Zippies interpritation) .

For those of you interested in actual fact, and understanding the CDC's concerns. we are not yet at the inflection point of the infection "curve if you will - essentially we are still in the exponential growth of the infection curve. Meaning infections are still growing exponentially in most countries. it appears as if the curve has leveled out in China, and seems to be approaching that in Japan, but most other countries are still in exponential growth, including the USA ( and since we have so many undiagnosed cases, the numbers/ rates are actually worse than the data show.

Here is a great little video on the curve of growth, and how we can tell when the infection rate is slowing down https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

And this guy does some great graphic representations of the global infection rate etc. this particular simulation he put out today also uses sound - pretty cool, and bit terrifying
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrgYEdb-Fls

[Edited on 3-9-2020 by caj13]

Still Laughing ?

MrBillM - 3-12-2020 at 05:41 PM

Looking back on comments from a few days back dismissing the impact and danger presented by this new Covid-19 .................... WOW !

What about NOW ?

Those parroting the "Dem/ Fake News/Hoax" line look pretty silly.

Paco Facullo - 3-12-2020 at 05:56 PM

So, the Government shuts down most all travel from Europe to the USA and YOU are still talkin statistics ?????

Actions speak louder than words.......

Awaiting Word from the Lord Above.

MrBillM - 3-13-2020 at 12:41 PM

1222 Hr.

The Divine D.T. was set to speak @ Noon. Said to be about to declare a National Emergency in what he originally described as "Fake News" being hyped by the Dems and later criticized as a Disease "seeded" by foreigners and well under control thanks to HIS actions.

Funny how the REALITY of nature (unlike, it seems, business and politics) can't be shaped and overcome by Invective, Bluster and Bullying.

1233 Hrs.

Well, there ya go. From the Big Orange ................ "Blah, Blah, Blah" He's great, did everything right, the blame lies elsewhere with those foreigners, BUT it IS now a "National Emergency".

We feel so much better comforted that we don't need to run out and search for Toilet Paper.

Our 60 rolls should be enough.

For now, anyway.

Maybe.