Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by
77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?
In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from
10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to
the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug
Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.
There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild
or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing
Americans to resume normal life.
[Edited on 2-19-2021 by JZ]AKgringo - 2-19-2021 at 08:48 AM
I hope you are right, but I think April is overly optimistic, especially with the possibility of a mutation that is resistant to the vaccine.
I don't need to see the risk go to zero before resuming a pre-covid life, but I will be paying more attention to the number of cases being
hospitalized rather than the total of detected cases.Skipjack Joe - 2-19-2021 at 09:55 AM
I'm not convinced that the drop is due to herd immunity.
A. The drop has occurred so precipitously. You would expected this herd immunity to climb steadily to match the infection rate. That sounds logical to
me.
B. The suggested herd immunity perfectly coincides with the vaccination. Now that's a mighty coincidence. Too much of a coincidence for me.
There is likely not one cause, but many. Herd immunity, vaccination, end of holidays, greater public awareness and compliance.
I don't like to get political but not having a president telling you it's just a flu all the time probably helped as well. Either way, the Democrats
will probably claim some of the credit. That's just how parties work.mtgoat666 - 2-19-2021 at 10:04 AM
The reasons for improvement:
End of holiday anti-distancing;
Toxic trumpeters gone;
Biden’s competent team on the job;
Vaccine rollout;
Brainwash victims starting to wake up and reject trumpista claims that virus is a hoax or nothing burger. pacificobob - 2-19-2021 at 10:06 AM
I'm thinking the drop in cases has to do with more people doing what they should be doing. you know... like countries that are compliant with
suggested guidelines. new Zealand comes to mind.motoged - 2-19-2021 at 11:24 AM
.... and recent reduction in transmissions in India is being studied to better understand which factors are at play there.Skipjack Joe - 2-19-2021 at 11:25 AM
I'm thinking the drop in cases has to do with more people doing what they should be doing. you know... like countries that are compliant with
suggested guidelines. new Zealand comes to mind.
I agreeJohn Harper - 2-19-2021 at 12:11 PM
Maybe it's that "miracle disappearance" that the "former guy" was always predicting?
JohnBajaBlanca - 2-19-2021 at 12:17 PM
JZ thanks for sharing! May you be so so so right.motoged - 2-19-2021 at 12:20 PM
I'm thinking the drop in cases has to do with more people doing what they should be doing. you know... like countries that are compliant with
suggested guidelines. new Zealand comes to mind.
I see fewer masks these days especially in Mexico on Sundays!
New Zealand has an easier time with border security.cactuspete1970 - 2-19-2021 at 04:28 PM
Maybe it's that "miracle disappearance" that the "former guy" was always predicting?
John
Vaccine centers are replacing testing centers. Remember test less and it will go away.
DRINK BLEACH!pauldavidmena - 2-19-2021 at 04:39 PM
The NY Times, which is notoriously skeptical of any positive Covid-19 news, reported a similar trend just this past week. They attribute the change to
a post-holiday dip in risky behavior, but also to the ramp-up in vaccinations and increased compliance due to people believing "there's light at the
end of the tunnel".
My workplace, meanwhile, reported 3 new positive cases in the past week, totaling 37 out of around 1000 employees. 3.7% is a little higher than the
2.9% positive test rate for Barnstable County, possibly because some employees need to be on-site to do their jobs, but also because many Cap Codders
feel as if the risk is fairly minimal. I agree with that in principle, but minimal isn't zero!
I too think April is optimistic, especially since I'm not likely to be vaccinated until early summer, but getting back to something near normal seems
a dream come true.JZ - 2-19-2021 at 04:51 PM
Florida handled this the best of any state. I went there twice last year. Visited Tampa, Orlando, Key West, and Daytona. Most everything was open.
Masks reqired and distancing.
Schoolls open since August. They have about the oldest population in the US. All this and they are still below the national average deaths/million.
[Edited on 2-20-2021 by JZ]pacificobob - 2-19-2021 at 05:00 PM
yes! we all have so much to learn from Florida's cutting edge forward thinking.
the list of amazing features things and people that are Florida is an example the whole world should notice. JZ - 2-19-2021 at 05:11 PM
yes! we all have so much to learn from Florida's cutting edge forward thinking.
the list of amazing features things and people that are Florida is an example the whole world should notice.
You sound drunk. Take your chitty attitude to another thread. Thanks in advance. msawin - 2-19-2021 at 07:39 PM
Lost a good friend night before last, with his battle with the virus. My next door neighbor in Tripui. Here in the hospital in Yuba City, Ca
