BajaNomad - Some very good news: A new study from Stanford researcher sets Covid IFR at ~.15%

That's puzzling; most of the statistics I've seen put it much higher, for example this source (chart of case fatality rates shown). What it shows is that things definitely are improving, but aren't nearly as rosy as your numbers indicate.

Maybe Infection Fatality Rate and Case Fatality Rate are different?

CDC says on their website: "The true severity of a disease can be described by the Infection Fatality Ratio."

CFR doesn't measure all those who were infected and skews towards measuring those with the most severe symptoms.

The CDC breaks their IFR estimates down by age group:

"Infection fatality ratio (Estimated number of deaths per 1,000,000 infections)

0–17 years old: 6
18–49 years old: 150
50–64 years old: 1,800
65+ years old: 26,000"

[Edited on 4-7-2021 by JZ]

Purdyd - 4-7-2021 at 08:13 AM

Considering that many countries with .15% of the entire population or more having died which would imply their entire population has caught covid,

Countries like the United States of America, and Mexico.

Which I think we can agree has not happened.

I think that .15% IFR is a bit optimistic.

John Ioannidis is a great critic of other research but his conclusions are just as shoddy as the research he critics.

For example his paper last year on IFR in Santa Clara county was widely panned.

https://undark.org/2020/04/24/john-ioannidis-covid-19-death-...

And his paper linked above which is mostly a critic of other papers bloody studies on infection, does a little hand wave at the end and estimates that 1.5 to 2 billion is the true world wide IFR. Which seems just as bad as the work he just critiqued.

Granted he does say there is a great deal of variation between regions and with the average age of the world population being around 30, it might be expected that IFR for the world would be less than the older industrialized nations are experiencing.

[Edited on 4-7-2021 by Purdyd]

AKgringo - 4-7-2021 at 09:01 AM

When possible, a look at the numbers of people showing up at the hospitals or morgues is a more useful indicator of risk. Here in Nevada County CA, there is a website that tracks that, along with numbers of "cases" whether they are symptomatic or not.

There are two hospitals in Nevada County, and there are only two reported hospitalizations at this time. The dates of deaths is not tracked, but I have been following this link, and there has only been one reported in over three weeks.

This is a retirement community, with many independent, and assisted living facilities, so it was hit hard early in the pandemic. Of a population of 100k, the median age is 49, with 28% of the county over 65!

Here is todays link if you are interested; https://mynevadacounty.com/2924/Coronavirus

JZ - 4-7-2021 at 11:38 AM

So you're saying someone who tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 might not be included in CFR calculations?

That seems... weird. At what point then is someone considered "a case"? :?:

(Your "most severe symptoms" sounds like something you yourself made up. Was that actually stated by a credible source?)

No, not saying that.

The point is a great deal of inflections are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. So no test is done and they aren't factored into the CFR. Because of this, the CFR isn't a true reflection of how deadly the virus is.

As the CDC says, "The true severity of a disease can be described by the Infection Fatality Ratio."

[Edited on 4-7-2021 by JZ]

JZ - 4-7-2021 at 12:00 PM

It would be very interesting to see the results of some widespread random-selection antibody tests.

They have done this in some smaller countries. I was reading about it yesterday.

Purdyd - 4-7-2021 at 12:17 PM

The paper referenced is essentially a critique of antibody tests.

The author did his own in March 2020 but it was severely flawed from the way he selected the sample, Facebook volunteers, the test given, the sample of positives, really low, and the method of extrapolating to the population at large since the sample population tended to be in a certain age and socioeconomic group.

Now he is back poking fun at everyone else’s antibody test as revenge I guess.

I would not pay any attention to that .15% IFR number.

Stuff like this from people who should be smart enough is very frustrating.

Is it any wonder there is no trust in science?

JZ - 4-7-2021 at 01:34 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Purdyd

The paper referenced is essentially a critique of antibody tests.

The author did his own in March 2020 but it was severely flawed from the way he selected the sample, Facebook volunteers, the test given, the sample of positives, really low, and the method of extrapolating to the population at large since the sample population tended to be in a certain age and socioeconomic group.

Now he is back poking fun at everyone else’s antibody test as revenge I guess.

I would not pay any attention to that .15% IFR number.

Stuff like this from people who should be smart enough is very frustrating.

Is it any wonder there is no trust in science?

Look at the IFR from the CDC that I posted above. That is straight off their website. It's way under .15 for 65 and under. You'd have to do some math to find out what it is total, talking population by age group into account. It's probably close to .2xx% overall.

BTW, that doctor from Stanford is up on the WHO site with published studies. I believe the WHO put IFR at .22 last Fall. I'll try to find it.

What are you saying the IFR is?

[Edited on 4-7-2021 by JZ]

surabi - 4-7-2021 at 03:19 PM

Very pertinent is the last sentence of the article :

"with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries, and locations.

So when countries like Australia, New Zealand and Thailand, which have succeeded in keeping their numbers low through strict public health measues are factored in, that makes the stats look much better than they really are. Mexico has a COVID death rate of 10%.

And why do those who love to downplay the seriousness of this disease ignore the fact that death is not necessarily the only thing to consider as far as the threat this disease poses.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/third-covid-survivors-suffer-neuro...

[Edited on 4-7-2021 by surabi]

JZ - 4-7-2021 at 03:36 PM

Very pertinent is the last sentence of the article :

"with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries, and locations.

So when countries like Australia, New Zealand and Thailand, which have succeeded in keeping their numbers low through strict public health measues are factored in, that makes the stats look much better than they really are. Mexico has a COVID death rate of 10%.

And why do those who love to downplay the seriousness of this disease ignore the fact that death is not necessarily the only thing to consider as far as the threat this disease poses.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/third-covid-survivors-suffer-neuro...

[Edited on 4-7-2021 by surabi]

Give me a break: "Anxiety, at 17%, and mood disorders, at 14%, were the most common."

Do you know the amount of anxiety and mood disorders that have occurred in the millions of ppl who were forced to stop working from unnecessary lock downs? Or the millions of children who should have been back in school in August but were held hostage while teachers unions used Covid as leverage to get better benefits?

JZ - 4-7-2021 at 03:44 PM

This is not correct. It is a logically flawed statement. Those countries controlling the spread has ZERO impact on the IRF calculation.

What that statement is saying is that countries with better healthcare systems will have a lower IFR than countries with poorer healthcare.

And no, Mexico does not have an IFR of 10%. They have a CFR of 9%.

[Edited on 4-7-2021 by JZ]

BigBearRider - 4-7-2021 at 03:59 PM

Quack, quack!

pacificobob - 4-7-2021 at 04:02 PM

if it walks like a duck........

John Harper - 4-7-2021 at 04:22 PM

A horse's arse beating a dead horse.

At least gnukid and paranewbi seem to have recently stopped the proselytizing.

John

[Edited on 4-7-2021 by John Harper]

Purdyd - 4-7-2021 at 06:37 PM

CDC lists IFR as follows.

9% for 65+
.6% for 50-64
Practically nothing for younger

Table 1 assume R0 2.5

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

I don’t know what happened to John Ioannidis but if you follow through this article you see that doing some simple math that an IFR of .17% would mean that everyone in the United States already had covid.

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/what-the-heck-happened-to-j...

And if you read the paper you would have to agree with this statement

“ Indeed, I’ve never seen such an attack in a peer-reviewed journal article ever, and I’m not alone:”

This site has done a good job of predicting things and estimates true infections are 2.6 times confirmed.

https://covid19-projections.com/

Current CFR for United States is 1.8%

Divide by 2.6 IFR estimate .7%

That is a napkin estimate but I’ve seen similar numbers bandied about going all the way back to the first cruise ship where they tested everyone.

But one problem with some of those early studies is that everyone was not through dying.

Personally I’ve always figured 1% as the IFR because it is easy to multiply by 100.

So again I will state this type of paper out of John Ioannidis and his actions during the covid pandemic have given him and science a bad name.

Come on, his original estimate of covid death in the United States based on his serological study in March was 10,000

I can’t explain why seemingly rational and intelligent people do these things.

[Edited on 4-8-2021 by Purdyd]

motoged - 4-8-2021 at 12:53 PM

I can't help but think that the third wave of infections with new variants will result in some re-evaluations of the stats collected so far.

What is the real end-game of those who are invested in minimizing the reality and seriousness of Covid and variant spreads ?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-variants-canada-covid-19-vaccine-third-wave-1.5978394

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-april8-2021-1.5979265

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-04-08-21/index.html

And will these folks accept vaccines while denying reality?

Just curious.

[Edited on 4-8-2021 by motoged]

[Edited on 4-8-2021 by motoged]

[Edited on 4-8-2021 by motoged]

[Edited on 4-8-2021 by motoged]

del mar - 4-8-2021 at 01:06 PM

I can't help but think that the third wave of infections with new variants will result in some re-evaluations of the stats collected so far.

What is the real end-game of those who are invested in minimizing the reality and seriousness of Covid and variant spreads ?

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1882906691980

And will these folks accept vaccines while denying reality?

Just curious.

[Edited on 4-8-2021 by motoged]

somethings wrong with that link Ged?

mtgoat666 - 4-8-2021 at 01:45 PM

Quote: Originally posted by del mar

somethings wrong with that link Ged?

Lots of people will reject the vaccine. Many of these same people reject:
Warnings against smoking
Recommendations for or laws requiring motorcycle helmets
Recommendations for or laws requiring Seat belts in cars

Some people are just reckless, crazy or stupid

motoged - 4-8-2021 at 01:46 PM

Link fixed:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-variants-canada-covid-19-vaccine-third-wave-1.5978394

Thanks :saint:

JZ - 4-8-2021 at 01:53 PM

Trudeau screwed the Canadian ppl by botching the vaccine roll out.

Canada is 54th in the world.

Tioloco - 4-8-2021 at 01:53 PM

Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666

Quote: Originally posted by del mar

somethings wrong with that link Ged?

Personal choices are a cornerstone of freedom.
What you consider reckless, crazy or stupid are YOUR opinions.
Some people have a stronger stomach than others for risk.
More people died settling the West than by Covid.

They werent reckless, crazy or stupid. They wisely exercised their freedom to flourish. They just didnt wear panties with brown racing stripes in them like you, GOAT666 and Motoged

motoged - 4-8-2021 at 02:00 PM

Looking forward to intelligent responses :coolup:

Tioloco - 4-8-2021 at 02:09 PM

Looking forward to intelligent responses :coolup:

Said EVERYONE who has ever had a conversation with you.

motoged - 4-8-2021 at 02:21 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Tioloco

...
Personal choices are a cornerstone of freedom....

They wisely exercised their freedom to flourish.

Oh, I get it now. You get to pretend you are John Wayne and buy into this distorted rant about "personal freedoms".

Over half a million dead exercised their freedom.... and more deniers will spread the viruses because they are "free".

Uncle Crazy, you are handcuffed by this illusion of freedom without responsibility. It's an archaic position to hold.

Thanks for the clarification.

Good luck with all that :biggrin:

surabi - 4-8-2021 at 08:36 PM

More young people getting sick, no pre-existing conditions, ending up in ICU.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/average-age-quebec-covid-19-080000...

pacificobob - 4-9-2021 at 06:23 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Tioloco

Looking forward to intelligent responses :coolup:

Said EVERYONE who has ever had a conversation with you.

no so many arrows in your quiver eh tio?

mtgoat666 - 4-9-2021 at 06:57 AM

More young people getting sick, no pre-existing conditions, ending up in ICU.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/average-age-quebec-covid-19-080000...

Obviously fake news!

JZ - 4-9-2021 at 07:41 AM

More young people getting sick, no pre-existing conditions, ending up in ICU.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/average-age-quebec-covid-19-080000...

Try reading the article.

'But hospitalizations are still not rising significantly among people under 30. "It's younger," he said of the average age of patients. "It's not young."'

Of course if you vaccinate the older ppl the overall age of hospitalizations will drop.

The amount of ppl on here rooting for the virus is unbelievable.

And the same ppl don't give a damn about the millions pushed to poverty and mental illness by over reaching and unnecessary lock downs.

Tioloco - 4-9-2021 at 10:00 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Tioloco

...
Personal choices are a cornerstone of freedom....

They wisely exercised their freedom to flourish.

Thank you for your kind words. Maybe they will help you get off of BN probation soon. :saint:

Purdyd - 4-9-2021 at 10:10 AM

“ More young people getting sick, no pre-existing conditions, ending up in ICU.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/average-age-quebec-covid-19-080000...

Another fear mongering headline to try and get clicks.

Gives the press a bad reputation.

But nothing new.

motoged - 4-9-2021 at 10:27 AM

My question remains:

" What is the end-game for covid minimizer/deniers ? " . :?:

P.S. I get my shot April 19th....hope it has all the 5G chips the needle will allow through so I can continue to hide safely in my basement and live off government handouts I clearly haven't earned or deserve.

motoged - 4-9-2021 at 11:07 AM

Trudeau screwed the Canadian ppl by botching the vaccine roll out.

Canada is 54th in the world.

I get my shot April 19th....about a month before I expected....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/canada-vaccine-rollout-data-1.5980588

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-vaccine-bc-1.5835318

[Edited on 4-9-2021 by motoged]

[Edited on 4-9-2021 by motoged]

DouglasP - 4-9-2021 at 11:29 AM

My question remains:

" What is the end-game for covid minimizer/deniers ? " . :?:

It's all about the fish, Ged, all about the fish.

20210405_114429_copy_726x1015.jpg - 295kB

motoged - 4-9-2021 at 11:35 AM

Well....finally....was wunderin' .... :biggrin:

Nice fish.

Tioloco - 4-9-2021 at 11:39 AM

Quote: Originally posted by DouglasP

My question remains:

" What is the end-game for covid minimizer/deniers ? " . :?:

It's all about the fish, Ged, all about the fish.

Heck yeah!

Purdyd - 4-9-2021 at 01:23 PM

My question remains:

" What is the end-game for covid minimizer/deniers ? " . :?:

As long as you don’t get the booster shot the batteries will wear out and you will be able move unobserved once again.

The various vaccine effectiveness and actually the roll out in the United States are real success stories.

Dr. Fauci in the recent news conference had very good news on how long immunity lasts for both the vaccine and for those that have recovered from covid.

https://youtu.be/0b9fRC8YrWI

The cdc has updated their guidance on clearing surfaces noting

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-r...

“ People can be infected with SARS-CoV-2 through contact with surfaces. However, based on available epidemiological data and studies of environmental transmission factors, surface transmission is not the main route by which SARS-CoV-2 spreads, and the risk is considered to be low. The principal mode by which people are infected with SARS-CoV-2 is through exposure to respiratory droplets carrying infectious virus. In most situations, cleaning surfaces using soap or detergent, and not disinfecting, is enough to reduce risk. Disinfection is recommended in indoor community settings where there has been a suspected or confirmed case of COVID-19 within the last 24 hours. The risk of fomite transmission can be reduced by wearing masks consistently and correctly, practicing hand hygiene, cleaning, and taking other measures to maintain healthy facilities.”

We know there have been vaccinations in Baja Sur of some of the older population,

I think there is plenty of good real news about the covid pandemic.

JZ - 4-9-2021 at 03:14 PM

Which bother me, not because there's anything integrally wrong with them, rather for seeming myopic and "me-focused". The fact a lot of people (well, Americans for sure) seem to forget is that are not islands, and in my opinion if we really want to get rid of COVID we have to pull together in order to overcome it a la smallpox or polio.

I agree with the "me" focus being bad. I just see it from two prospectives.

1) Those being reckless and not having regard for others

2) Those who don't have to work for a living or who can work from home, etc. telling others they can't work and telling ppl to not support them by doing things that keep the economy going. These "me" only ppl are financially safe, so they don't care about the economic or mental struggles of others.

Both are selfish, "me" first positions in my book. Several on here are guilty of #2.

I've gone out of my way to be safe, avoid crowds, where a mask, etc., etc. But still live life and support others. I.e. visited 10+ states last year. Traveled almost a week out of every month from Mar to Dec. I didn't get Covid. Didn't give it to anyone. And just got the J&J shot today.

[Edited on 4-10-2021 by JZ]

JZ - 4-9-2021 at 04:03 PM

Quote: Originally posted by John Harper

I've been working in the classroom since September, and have not gotten nor given Covid to anyone, either.

I'm glad to hear no one took your ability to work away from you and you were able to support your family.

[Edited on 4-9-2021 by JZ]

mtgoat666 - 4-9-2021 at 08:45 PM

I didn't get Covid. Didn't give it to anyone.

How do you know this? Many people get covid and are asymptomatic and spread the disease, and never know it...

This has been going on for over a year and you still don’t know the basics. Sad.

JZ - 4-9-2021 at 11:29 PM

Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666

How do you know this? Many people get covid and are asymptomatic and spread the disease, and never know it...

This has been going on for over a year and you still don’t know the basics. Sad.

I did the antibody test twice.

Do you want to see the results?

[Edited on 4-10-2021 by JZ]

motoged - 4-10-2021 at 01:56 AM

Quote: Originally posted by John Harper

I've been working in the classroom since September, and have not gotten nor given Covid to anyone, either.

I'm glad to hear no one took your ability to work away from you and you were able to support your family.
[Edited on 4-9-2021 by JZ]

So why did you previously post "... Or the millions of children who should have been back in school in August but were held hostage while teachers unions used Covid as leverage to get better benefits?"

:?:

Purdyd - 4-10-2021 at 03:45 AM

The problem is that you aren’t just risking your life or health, but the life and health of those around you. And while I personally don’t mind taking acceptable risks, I am not willing to risk the lives of my wife, family or friends.

Even if in relative terms, the chances of them dying or getting seriously ill are small. It is still above my threshold for others.

As for mask wearing, I don’t see that as an assault on my personal freedom, rather as responsibility as a member of a free society and a courtesy to others.

That is also applies to vaccinations.

And I especially dislike disinformation campaigns that seek to diminish or exaggerate the.risks.

JZ - 4-10-2021 at 09:07 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Purdyd

The problem is that you aren’t just risking your life or health, but the life and health of those around you. And while I personally don’t mind taking acceptable risks, I am not willing to risk the lives of my wife, family or friends.

Even if in relative terms, the chances of them dying or getting seriously ill are small. It is still above my threshold for others.

As for mask wearing, I don’t see that as an assault on my personal freedom, rather as responsibility as a member of a free society and a courtesy to others.

That is also applies to vaccinations.

And I especially dislike disinformation campaigns that seek to diminish or exaggerate the.risks.

My wife went into her office almost every single day of 2020. The kids went off to college in the fall. She took 4 cross country flights last year.

Grandma stayed home in Ohio.

JZ - 4-10-2021 at 09:09 AM

Because that's what happened in a lot of states.

Newsome kept schools closed while he sent his kids to private schools.

motoged - 4-10-2021 at 10:38 AM

My wife went into her office almost every single day of 2020. The kids went off to college in the fall. She took 4 cross country flights last year.

Grandma stayed home in Ohio.

For months you have clearly ridiculed those who support medical recommendations for managing pandemic spread.
You have blatantly bragged about your travel for such monumentally important events as buying a pooch from a puppy mill and somehow justify it as your socially responsible behaviour supporting amerikan economy.

You have posted that your kids contracted Covid yet you continued to promote travel.....who knows how many people they infected....

I could go on but it is disingenuous for you to pretend to now be a responsible citizen doing his best to prevent pandemic proliferation. Out of one side of your mouth you have consistently insulted teachers for wanting safe working conditions....and then try to appear to be concerned for their well-being.

You will likely respond with more insults....but if there is a molecule of self-reflection and integrity in your being you may consider your own self-centered pontifications. :light:

JZ - 4-10-2021 at 11:26 AM

Florida teachers and teaches in many other states have been safely back in the classroom since August.

Meanwhile the strong teachers union in California tries to leverage Covid to get a benefit that virtually no other profession has.

"California teachers’ latest demand: Free child care - POLITICO" https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/04/california-teachers...

That is just 1 of a thousand examples showing how bad the school boards and teachers unions have been at the expense of the nation's kids.

Gavin Newsome sends his kids to school every day.

[Edited on 4-10-2021 by JZ]

motoged - 4-10-2021 at 11:47 AM

So now you are a political as well as medical expert?

Clearly you are dodging the issue here.

What is your agenda with minimizing covid risks and promoting your vacation travel??

Pray tell....what would have been your administrative policies at such a time?

Purdyd - 4-10-2021 at 02:48 PM

Because that's what happened in a lot of states.

Newsome kept schools closed while he sent his kids to private schools.

Sure and I bet she wore a mask at work and their were additional safety protocols

And she certainly wore a mask on those cross country flights and may have even had reduced seating like open middle seats

Schools are reopening in California. I suppose history will tell if having them closed was the correct response.

Our president has said it is time to get back to school.

Even governor Newsom has committed to opening schools and with his June 16th open California he told all schools, including community colleges to open fully in the fall.

Until recently the community colleges were not committing to opening up.

I find it interesting that the school districts are reluctant to commit to reopening without some push down. Seems to be the case in numerous states.

It is pretty evident from Israel snd the Uk vaccinations and immunity from recovering from covid will get us out of this pandemic.

It should be quite a different vibe on July 4th in the United States.

Lee - 4-10-2021 at 04:05 PM

Florida teachers and teaches in many other states have been safely back in the classroom since August.
[Edited on 4-10-2021 by JZ]

Not sure why you keep comparing Florida to California. Looks like FL and Michigan are currently seeing an increase in the virus.

Are you considering moving to Florida? It's not a great state.

By the way, still not reading real solutions about how to better treat the virus. What Florida is doing is not a real solution.

RFClark - 4-11-2021 at 06:12 AM

Since in the US most COVID deaths are first admitted to a hospital. You can look at COVID admissions and deaths to come up with how likely a person is to die from COVID.

The chart shows confirmed admissions per 100K the most recent week was 2.6/100K. Note that the 65+ rate (red) and the general rate have been converging since January! Vaccinations are effective!

FF0E0EF1-8C11-484B-9495-77A02587A6B9.jpeg - 236kB

[Edited on 4-11-2021 by RFClark]

mtgoat666 - 4-11-2021 at 06:34 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Lee