BajaNomad

Hurricane Enrique

BajaBill74 - 6-26-2021 at 08:23 AM

Hurricane Enrique is headed for Los Cabos. It should arrive on Thursday. The good news is that it should weaken to a tropical depression.

AKgringo - 6-26-2021 at 08:34 AM

Here is a link;

https://www.windy.com/?2021-06-27-12,26.077,-109.578,5,m:eqE...

Bajabus - 6-26-2021 at 11:23 AM

the cone of uncertainty


181827_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png - 72kB

Don Pisto - 6-26-2021 at 02:02 PM

I've got a group of friends a week into a two week surf trip way down in Barra de la Cruz.......can't wait to hear the stories!

AKgringo - 6-26-2021 at 02:36 PM

Everybody in the Los Cabos area should call and make an appointment with a timeshare, or condo salesman. The resulting high pressure generated should deflect the storm.

Just don't sign anything!

elskel - 6-26-2021 at 09:01 PM

Bring on some rain, it is needed!

bajarich - 6-26-2021 at 10:51 PM

Make Baja backroads rough again!

BajaBlanca - 6-26-2021 at 11:24 PM

It really has been a long time since La Bocana saw any rain. For sure the underground reservoirs need refilling.

rogbag - 6-27-2021 at 06:56 AM

We really need some rain. The predictions don't show a lot happening, but any is welcome. It has been 2 years since we had any to speak of.
Come on Enrique! A depression is fine.

SFandH - 6-27-2021 at 08:32 AM

The weather website I use shows Cabo with a 53% chance of rain on Wednesday, early AM, and 30+ mph winds.

Don Pisto - 6-27-2021 at 08:46 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Don Pisto  
I've got a group of friends a week into a two week surf trip way down in Barra de la Cruz.......can't wait to hear the stories!


boys checked in Enrique way north of them.....their timing is perfect :coolup:

AKgringo - 6-27-2021 at 04:06 PM

I checked the "Windy" forecast just now, and it looks like a weakened Enrique might pass to the east of La Paz. Here is their forecast for Wednesday, in the rainfall mode;
https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,2021-07-01-00,...

BajaBill74 - 6-27-2021 at 07:38 PM

Enrique has been upgraded to a storm. That means winds 35 - 73 MPH. Arriving Wednesday at 1 PM.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/234957.s...

shari - 6-28-2021 at 09:14 AM

look like Enrique is losing steam but will most likely provide some much needed rain...this is Monday 9:00 am report

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

The convective structure of Enrique has eroded some this morning as
the hurricane appears to be feeling the effects of dry air
entrainment, both from downsloping to the northeast off the higher
terrain of Mexico and from stable air being entrained from the
northwest. This degradation in the northern portion of Enrique's
inner-core structure is also seen in an 0919 UTC AMSR2 microwave
pass. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T4.5/77
kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the intensity for this advisory was
lowered to 75 kt in accordance with these estimates.

Enrique's motion appears to be gradually turning more toward the
left at 335/4 kt. Over the next few days, a weak low- to mid-level
ridge is expected to keep the storm on a similar northwest heading.
The latest track guidance is in relatively good agreement, though
there have been notable leftward shifts in the HWRF and HMON models.
The latest NHC forecast is a slightly farther left compared to the
previous one, close to both the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

Now that Enrique's inner core structure has become increasingly
ragged, weakening is expected to continue via dry-air entrainment as
the storm tracks along gradually decreasing oceanic heat content.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is a bit faster in its weakening
rate over the next 24-36 hours, but Enrique is still forecast to be
a tropical storm as it approaches the Baja California peninsula.
However, some uncertainty remains in the forecast intensity because
Enrique is forecast to track along a sharp sea-surface temperature
gradient, where a left shift in the track would likely result in
faster weakening rate while a right shift in the track may allow
Enrique to maintain its intensity longer.

Given the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
tropical storm watch from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles along
southern part of the Baja California Peninsula.

Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days,
which could likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. The core of Enrique is still near but just offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is
in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds
are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico
within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area today.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

RFClark - 6-29-2021 at 10:19 PM

Update from BCS,

It started to rain on the toll road around noon -1 today. You could see heavy rain over mountains to the east. Tropical Depression Enrique should reach Baja Sur tomorrow with more rain expected. Winds are expected to be around 40 mph.

More tomorrow after sun up.

RFClark - 6-30-2021 at 08:31 AM

Hi,

It rained 1.22” in Todos Santos early this AM. The power was off for awhile around 5:00AM. There was no wind, it’s 68 degrees and overcast!

BajaBill74 - 6-30-2021 at 08:38 AM

Thank you RFClark, that' sure better than a hurricane.

tiotomasbcs - 6-30-2021 at 09:55 AM

Thunder and lightning flashes woke me up overnite. El Pescadero. It rained steady until around 7am. Power had been out but came back on time for coffee. No wind and beautiful soaking rain. Now I know where the roof leaks?! No humidity...


[Edited on 6-30-2021 by tiotomasbcs]

TMW - 6-30-2021 at 11:16 AM

Quote: Originally posted by tiotomasbcs  
Thunder and lightning flashes woke me up overnite. El Pescadero. It rained steady until around 7am. Power had been out but came back on time for coffee. No wind and beautiful soaking rain. Now I know where the roof leaks?! No humidity...


[Edited on 6-30-2021 by tiotomasbcs]


Make sure you have plenty of buckets.

capitolkat - 6-30-2021 at 11:22 AM

La Paz- the rain started here in the early morning. No wind to speak of and it has remained overcast until now at 12:20 PM. It's raining again , pretty steady but not heavy. As a tropical storm Enrique has been a bust but, as a nice gentle rainstorm it's just what we needed in La Paz.

Hook - 7-1-2021 at 08:11 AM

Where did all the moisture go from Enrique? It's like it simply evaporated.

No remnant clouds or radar-discovered moisture anywhere.

A bust, indeed.

Howard - 7-1-2021 at 09:37 AM

Yesterday in Loreto it rained off and on for less than 1 hour, nothing heavy but needed the windshield wipes. Rained enough to leave spots on my newly cleaned RZR.

The area needs water so bad I wished in would of dumped lots of rain but maybe next time.

RFClark - 7-2-2021 at 01:47 AM

Hook,

Enrique ran into dry air and the cold water off of BCS! It’s still in the 60s in the morning here in Todos Santos!