BajaNomad - Some wind headed toward the cape?

Some wind headed toward the cape?

AKgringo - 8-31-2022 at 04:42 PM

I know a lot can change in a week, but "Windy" is showing a possible event hitting the cape!

I had trouble trying to post a screen shot, but you can click on this post and advance the forecast to Wednesday.

https://www.windy.com/?2022090712,26.077,-109.578,5,m:ek5ac3...

[Edited on 8-31-2022 by AKgringo]

AKgringo - 8-31-2022 at 04:54 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Don Pisto

Ron's xlnt new TalkBaja site has a really good weather page, might want to take a look

I don't do Facebook. What is it showing?

AKgringo - 8-31-2022 at 06:07 PM

Unless it is a secret site, why don't you just post a link?

[Edited on 9-1-2022 by AKgringo]

mtgoat666 - 8-31-2022 at 06:13 PM

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo

Unless it is a secrete site, why don't you just post a link?

Just look at windy or read the narrative on nhc (noaa) east pacific site.

SFandH - 8-31-2022 at 06:19 PM

Windy.com is an incredible website. What more do you need to know? Lots can change between now and the forecasted landfall next week.

[Edited on 9-1-2022 by SFandH]

AKgringo - 8-31-2022 at 06:34 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Don Pisto

pleeeze, forget I mentioned it.

Thanks for the link. it got me right back to where I started with Windy! I had Talk Baja Public Group saved, but it would only take me to a Facebook sign in page.

mtgoat666 - 8-31-2022 at 06:45 PM

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo

Quote: Originally posted by Don Pisto

pleeeze, forget I mentioned it.

Thanks for the link. it got me right back to where I started with Windy! I had Talk Baja Public Group saved, but it would only take me to a Facebook sign in page.

Talk baja is mostly reposting snippets from noaa and windy. I just read the noaa website (nhc, and sgx (my local)). Windy is full of pretty swirls, looks real groovy, but provides no narrative interpretation, so is pretty uninformative, though it sometimes gets wind/rain timing sort of correct…

RFClark - 8-31-2022 at 07:31 PM

SF&H,

The landfall of what next Wednesday?

JZ - 8-31-2022 at 09:21 PM

Any time warm winds blow in SoCal watch out on the Sea of Cortez.

Learned that 20 years ago. It was very hot and windy in LA today.

Started boating at age 3 and have spent probably 5+ years of my life on the ocean. Pacific (US and Australia), Sea of Cortez, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic, Mediterranean.

The worst seas we got caught in ever were between Bahia de los Angeles and Santa Rosalia. Had a 33 foot boat and was legit worried for my life. We left cruising 35 mph on flat seas for the first half of the trip. Then all hell broke lose.

Called home once we got to SR and the wife said it was blowing like crazy at our house.

[Edited on 9-1-2022 by JZ]

freediverbrian - 8-31-2022 at 09:32 PM

Check out the web site cyclocane it has many models and paths to chose from none have it making landfall

RFClark - 8-31-2022 at 09:40 PM

JZ,

Current wind south of San Felipe is 2.5MPH gusts to 3.5. 40 to 50 MPH winds out of nowhere are not uncommon. Nothing so far.

RFClark - 8-31-2022 at 09:53 PM

FDB,

This year’s tropical storm and hurricane drought has unhinged some of the climate disaster types. They’re doing the “stories of hurricanes passed” thing.

The disturbance off Southern Mexico is going out to sea.

SFandH - 9-1-2022 at 06:26 AM

Quote: Originally posted by RFClark

SF&H,

The landfall of what next Wednesday?

Move the horizontal slider at the bottom to Wednesday morning.

https://www.windy.com/?2022090712,20.982,-108.809,5

brucedog - 9-1-2022 at 08:36 AM

eebmike.com is another good resource. I believe its just NOAA data but its presented well. That storm currently has a 40-60% chance of forming. Its certainly worth keeping an eye on if you're anywhere near the Cape

bajaric - 9-1-2022 at 09:03 AM

Quote: Originally posted by JZ

Any time warm winds blow in SoCal watch out on the Sea of Cortez.

Learned that 20 years ago. It was very hot and windy in LA today.

Started boating at age 3 and have spent probably 5+ years of my life on the ocean. Pacific (US and Australia), Sea of Cortez, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic, Mediterranean.

The worst seas we got caught in ever were between Bahia de los Angeles and Santa Rosalia. Had a 33 foot boat and was legit worried for my life. We left cruising 35 mph on flat seas for the first half of the trip. Then all hell broke lose.

Called home once we got to SR and the wife said it was blowing like crazy at our house.

[Edited on 9-1-2022 by JZ]

The stretch of coastline about 20-30 miles south of Puertecitos is one of the windiest spots in Baja, and not in a good way. The wind often arrives in the dead of night, blowing straight out to sea. My amigo that runs pangas down there has figured out how to predict the wind using the internet, but I am not sure what site he uses. Somehow when high pressure is observed to the north or something you can predict it. There is another type of wind, however, that cannot be predicted; the sudden burst coming up from the south. That is what sank the Erick a while back. They had another occurrence of it this year, it blew a sheet metal roof 200 yards. That one they are afraid of. He had a name for it but I forgot what they call it.

edit: 20-30 miles south of Puertecitos..

[Edited on 9-1-2022 by bajaric]

RFClark - 9-1-2022 at 09:14 AM

Bajaric,

We’ve had a place here south of SF for 30 years. The wind blows hard from all directions. From the south is usually the worst, over 100 degrees and 50mph. We’ve never had anything blow away, our stuff is well built.

Bajazly - 9-1-2022 at 09:20 AM

Quote: Originally posted by bajaric

He had a name for it but I forgot what they call it.

Viento del Diablo I believe. Had one here a couple weeks ago just after midnight. Probably the worst wind I've seen down here.

Sudden and unpredictable?

AKgringo - 9-1-2022 at 09:37 AM

Sounds like what they call a "Williwaw" in Alaska. When dense, cool air meets a warmer front on the plains, tornados can happen.

When a mountain range separates the fronts, the dense air builds up like water behind a dam, then comes spilling down through mountain passes!

I experienced one in the Matanuska drainage when a friend and I got dropped off on a gravel air strip and set up camp. We were climbing the slope above our camp, when it sounded like a jet was flying over the glacial canyon we were in.

There was no plane, but we could hear the wind coming and see the dust cloud it was rising. It was good that the plane that dropped us off was gone, because it went from dead calm to a tent destroying gale like someone flipped a switch!

Edit; Would the term "Chubasco" be the same sort of event?

[Edited on 9-1-2022 by AKgringo]

RFClark - 9-1-2022 at 05:21 PM

.8” of rain this afternoon in Todos Santos with some lightning.

What a difference a decimal makes

AKgringo - 9-1-2022 at 05:48 PM

At first glance I thought you were reporting eight inches, and I was stunned!

RFClark - 9-1-2022 at 07:14 PM

So it seems that a tropical storm popped up just today and probably is responsible for today’s rain. It’s forecast to move parallel to the coast a couple of hundred miles offshore before turning west. I wonder if any of the models forecast today’s storm? It wasn’t on NOAA’s radar yesterday. I saw the area yesterday and wondered about it. And then there’s next Wednesday!

mtgoat666 - 9-1-2022 at 07:24 PM

Quote: Originally posted by RFClark

It wasn’t on NOAA’s radar yesterday. I saw the area yesterday and wondered about it.

It has been in NOAA NHC forecast for past few days, been keeping an eye on it for past few days The NHC doesn’t post track path graphics until event reaches TS level.

NHC has archive feature, you can go back and read reports for past days…

SFandH - 9-2-2022 at 08:06 AM

Quote: Originally posted by SFandH

Quote: Originally posted by RFClark

SF&H,

The landfall of what next Wednesday?

Move the horizontal slider at the bottom to Wednesday morning.

https://www.windy.com/?2022090712,20.982,-108.809,5

windy is now showing the storm hitting a bit north of Todos Santos Wednesday evening and crossing over the peninsula.

[Edited on 9-2-2022 by SFandH]

RFClark - 9-2-2022 at 10:34 AM

It started raining south of Cerritos last night. 1.37” to current. It’s partly cloudy with solar at about 35% of normal and over 1 KW solar output.

azucena - 9-3-2022 at 08:34 AM

Looks like the rain is hitting Muleje/Loreto area, reports of washouts at km 125 on 1.
East Cape also getting a good bit of rain, lots of flow through arroyos.
Potentially more on tap in the coming week.

Playing with Windy....

AKgringo - 9-3-2022 at 09:01 AM

For those who have not used www.windy.com before, you can change the display from a wind forecast to a rain forecast by using the vertical bar on the right side of the display. You can move focus area around, zoom in and out and play with the forecast date/time slider at the bottom.

Of course, it is just a forecast and is always being updated, so I check often. The tropical disturbance headed for Baja could turn east and soak the mainland, or turn west and head toward Hawaii.

Right now it shows the potential of becoming a problem the length of the peninsula!

Don Pisto - 9-3-2022 at 09:40 AM

Quote: Originally posted by azucena

Looks like the rain is hitting Muleje/Loreto area, reports of washouts at km 125 on 1.
East Cape also getting a good bit of rain, lots of flow through arroyos.
Potentially more on tap in the coming week.

shari - 9-3-2022 at 12:18 PM

Here in Bahia Asuncion where it RARELY rains we got a half hour of moderate rain yesterday afternoon and then not again till around 7:30 this morning and it rained hard for over an hour. Winds are up to about 30 knots making it hard to open my back door & will most likely destroy my roses and other of my beloved plants!

Other areas in our municipality of Mulege fared much worse with lots of flooding in Sta.Rosalia and some in Mulege.
Hope this wasnt just a dress rehearsal for what is to come on Thursday when a bigger storm threatens to really screw things up.

HeyMulegeScott - 9-3-2022 at 12:32 PM

Seeing lots of reports of flooding and damage around Mulege. Damage to Mex1 on Mulege - Loreto.

[Edited on 9-3-2022 by HeyMulegeScott]

Zola - 9-3-2022 at 08:57 PM

Stay posted. According to most models, the new storm forming off the coast of southern Mexico appears likely to become a major hurricane (category 3 or 4), and most models predict that it will make landfall in BCS or at least come close. It is still too early to have exactly reliable predictions, but people should stay posted and make appropriate arrangements so far as possible.

The system might reach Todos Santos and los Cabos by Tuesday (?) and further up the coast of BCS by Wednesday or Thursday. One or two models show it tracking along the east cape, but most models have it land near Todos Santos or march up the west coast.

With luck, it will spare us all. The NHC site is very helpful for this information.

[Edited on 9-4-2022 by Zola]

Zola - 9-4-2022 at 05:56 PM

The storm might be much weaker than originally projected, but still plenty potent, especially as it approaches the tip of BSC. It is likely to come very close to Todos Santos by Tuesday, then move northwest off the coast of BCS.