BajaNomad - How much further is the dollar going to decline?

Didn't take long for an exciting beginning to go crashing down!

Where on earth did you get that graph? I haven't seen it go above 21 in that lapse.

From x-rates.com:

The Internet, it's on computers now!

Lee - 4-3-2023 at 10:20 PM

16.5p at OXXO Pescadero today.

pauldavidmena - 4-4-2023 at 06:21 AM

16.5p at OXXO Pescadero today.

I was wondering if there was an ATM in Pescadero besides the one at OXXO, as I'm a bit wary of third-party cash machines - even in the States. I ended up getting pesos at one of the banks in Todos Santos during our last trip, although I also noticed that quite a few businesses (Agricole, Todos Santos Brewery, and Docecuarenta come to mind) take credit cards.

David K - 4-4-2023 at 07:05 AM

The Internet, it's on computers now!

You ever actually considered the effect of sarcasm on a conversation?

Plonk.

Only for my Nomad friends who never shy away from 'plonking' on me!

I simply Googled the question Peso to Dollar graph. Then I customized it to show the rate from January 2021 to now. The same graph PaulW used, only his was the larger time span graph, right off the website.

verichip - 4-4-2023 at 08:51 AM

The future of the dollar? How far will it drop?
https://youtu.be/2H2G-HkFNn8

Lee - 4-4-2023 at 03:00 PM

Quote: Originally posted by pauldavidmena

16.5p at OXXO Pescadero today.

Just started using a cc at Agricole re using too much cash. Use the Todos banks once a week. Don’t trust 3rd party ATM’s. Think OXXO is it in Pesky.

soulpatch - 4-4-2023 at 05:33 PM

Didn't take long for an exciting beginning to go crashing down!

That blip back in 2020 was the point of break-over.

I remember right after that when most of Mexico went to work reworking prices upward significantly.
Literally people in stores relabeling price tags on many things.

It has not come back down in relationship to the dollar dropping.

I don't know how many people here even fill up with petrol and pay their CFE bills.

surabi - 4-4-2023 at 06:16 PM

??? Obviously everyone driving is buying petrol and if you don't pay your CFE bill they cut off your electricity.

Hook - 4-4-2023 at 06:25 PM

16.5p at OXXO Pescadero today.

Well, yeah. :rolleyes:

The dollar actually topped 19 about 7-10 days ago.......for one day. It had spent a lot of time in the 18s. Which is where it is right now.

You're using a card at an OXXO and that is what you are getting? Why?????

Hook - 4-4-2023 at 06:29 PM

The Internet, it's on computers now!

You ever actually considered the effect of sarcasm on a conversation?

Plonk.

Best pot calling the kettle black post I can remember on this site.

BTW, sarcasm from DavidK is EXTREMELY RARE, IMO. But, MAN, it was kinda deserved in this case. Where else would one go to find exchange rates? Drive to the bank and see what's posted? :lol:

David K - 4-5-2023 at 04:48 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Hook

Best pot calling the kettle black post I can remember on this site.

Could be; I'll pay more attention.

Quote: Originally posted by Hook

But, MAN, it was kinda deserved in this case. Where else would one go to find exchange rates? Drive to the bank and see what's posted? :lol:

Mine was actually a serious inquiry as to his specific source, and "the Internet" is a big place.

Kinda like answering a question about the source of a literary quote with "The library-- it's right down the block, you know." :rolleyes:

I thought you were joking with me, when you asked... so, I joked back. Did you think I just made up that graph? Unless it is a scan off a Baja book, or a map I made, anything non-Baja I post is from the Internet. Sorry that I didn't take you seriously... You know I love to provide accurate answers... and some of them even are right!

Lee - 4-5-2023 at 05:48 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Hook

16.5p at OXXO Pescadero today.

Well, yeah. :rolleyes:

Well no. No cc or pesos. Stopped at OXXO for milk saw a sign posted for rates.

Mula - 4-5-2023 at 05:52 AM

It's been 17.50 around Constitucion for awhile now.

Hook - 4-5-2023 at 08:15 AM

Came up about a tenth of a peso since yesterday. The rate seems to bounce off of 18.0, as a floor. When it got down there about 10 days ago, it bounced up to 19 for one day, and then continued slowly downward. Yesterday was less than one tenth of a peso from 18.

HeyMulegeScott - 4-5-2023 at 08:26 AM

The 10 year average is 18.3391 according to Bing and the rate today is 18.352833.

pauldavidmena - 4-5-2023 at 08:31 AM

Here's pretty much the same data others have presented, this time from Google Finance.

verichip - 4-5-2023 at 06:20 PM

Is there any truth in this video?
https://youtu.be/nsDZomjhJ_Y

JDCanuck - 4-5-2023 at 08:36 PM

The US dollar has lost about 10% of it's value, compared to the MX peso. How much further is the dollar goi?g to slide down the hill.

This has been happening for more than a couple years now. I think its more a question of "why is the Peso rising?" The USD has been fairly stable or gaining against a basket of foreign currencies, Mexican Peso is the exception.
For whatever reason, global markets like the outlook for the Mexican economy since just after the onset of Covid, where the Peso took a very rapid big hit against foreign currencies

[Edited on 4-6-2023 by JDCanuck]

mtgoat666 - 4-5-2023 at 09:10 PM

Y’all are George soros wanna bes, gonna make a killing on futures market for pesos, use your crystal ball to get rich

You ever looked at the long term trend of pesos vs dollar?

HeyMulegeScott - 4-6-2023 at 09:56 AM

The Mexican economy appears to be in good shape with low unemployment. De-globalization trend could mean more near-shoring of manufacturing in Mexico.

JDCanuck - 4-6-2023 at 12:32 PM

Quote: Originally posted by HeyMulegeScott

The Mexican economy appears to be in good shape with low unemployment. De-globalization trend could mean more near-shoring of manufacturing in Mexico.

I too am seeing a lot of positive news regarding future manufacturing and exports growth expectations out of Mexico. The Tesla mega factory being built comes to mind, along with an EV manufacturing hub supported by large renewable power expansions just south of the border.

gnukid - 4-11-2023 at 06:38 AM

Keep in mind BCS is the most affluent and most expensive place in Mexico, highest wages and highest prices for commodities over the last year.

Peso is up against the dollar though has fallen relative to other LATAM currencies resulting recently in much lower prices on some commodities that are locally produced, such as vegetables in season, cement big bag, labor, fish, meat, down as much as 30%, though intl products are up.

Many shop owners and consumers seem unaware of the significant economic changes in the past month, while other vendors are working fast to drop prices to be competitive. Store to store prices vary greatly.

Mexico often has a weird reaction to economic slow down, increasing prices significantly, reducing staff and basically shutting down businesses.

Snow birds have fled back home to balance their books and clean house, so intl tourism business is down.

While peso is way up from its lows against the dollar over the last 3 years, there are bargains. Consumers need to be very careful shopping, there are some items marked way over priced, 2-3x over the recent months, old out of date overstock, expired products, and general fraud in some stores with computer pricing higher not aligned to marked pricing, which is hard for some people to resolve at the register often resulting in about 20% difference in current prices versus what the computer will spit out at the cashier. Be aware of prices and take a photo of the listed prices and check as the cashier rings up and correct errors in real time.

If you have cash now is a great time to be in Baja, real estate prices are down, rent is down, labor is down and many construction materials are down over the last 90 days. Negotiate.

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX rises as dollar wanes; Mexican peso slips after inflation data
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/emerging-markets-latam-fx-ris...

The Brazilian real and the Mexican peso have climbed against the dollar as it steamrolls rival currencies this year — but economic and political risks could eat into their gains
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazilian-real-mexican-peso-c...

[Edited on 4-11-2023 by gnukid]

surabi - 4-13-2023 at 10:37 AM

"Keep in mind BCS is the most affluent and most expensive place in Mexico, highest wages and highest prices for commodities over the last year."

No, "BCS" is not the most affluent and expensive place in Mexico. Cabo is currently listed as the the most expensive city, but there are other places that are almost as expensive, and the Polanco neighborhood in Mexico city is by far the most affluent area in the country.

Don Pisto - 4-13-2023 at 10:48 AM

no argument here just an interesting article........
https://ventured.com/20-richest-cities-in-mexico/

AKgringo - 4-13-2023 at 02:37 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Don Pisto

no argument here just an interesting article........
https://ventured.com/20-richest-cities-in-mexico/

Interesting! Tijuana and Mexicali are the only Baja cities to make the list, and they are not even in the top ten.

BajaMama - 4-18-2023 at 08:23 AM

As a former math teacher I would like to point out the illogical presentation of the peso vs. dollar exchange rate graphs. A visually accurate graph would start the peso at zero, not 15, 16, 17 or even 18. You would see that over time, the peso exchange rate has been fairly stable over the last five or so years. It briefly hit an outlier high during the first months of the pandemic but overall has been between 17-21. Significantly higher than 11 or so 2013 and prior.

liknbaja127 - 4-18-2023 at 05:51 PM

looks to me they will need more! I bought 8 bags cement yesterday, 340 pesos per. 2 months ago was 260. Same with lumber. San Quintin area.
Glad we are almost done!

verichip - 4-20-2023 at 06:45 PM

Why is the Guatemala q at 7.62 like it has been for many years? Never more than and always less than 10% change.

gnukid - 4-20-2023 at 07:56 PM

Quote: Originally posted by liknbaja127

I bought 8 bags cement yesterday, 340 pesos per. 2 months ago was 260. Same with lumber. San Quintin area.

Ouch.

San Quintin... how much of that stuff is imported from the U.S.?

You don't mention size of bag, you might be confused about price per kilo, cement in general has not gone up, it has gone down.

Here's a chart of mexico cement price showing downward trend, though I understand locally stores will increase prices outside of market, as I mention, be aware of market prices.

Update on Mexico, March 2023
https://globalcement.com/news/item/15507-update-on-mexico-ma...

[Edited on 4-21-2023 by gnukid]

gnukid - 4-20-2023 at 08:13 PM

Quote: Originally posted by liknbaja127

I bought 8 bags cement yesterday, 340 pesos per. 2 months ago was 260. Same with lumber. San Quintin area.

Ouch.

San Quintin... how much of that stuff is imported from the U.S.?

$245 is normal price for 50kg bag in Baja today
https://www.homedepot.com.mx/materiales-de-construccion/ceme...

[Edited on 4-21-2023 by gnukid]

PaulW - 4-20-2023 at 08:43 PM

Mexico’s annual inflation rate fell to 6.86% in March of 2023, the lowest since October 2021, from 7.62% in the previous month and roughly in line with market estimates of 6.9%. Amid a 2.23% annual decline in energy prices, inflation slowed for food and non-alcoholic beverages (11.01% vs 12.29% in February), housing and utilities (0.63% vs 2.13%), transportation (5.36% vs 6.09%), and restaurants and hotels (11.58% vs 12.01%). In the meantime, the annual core inflation rate remained elevated but fell to a seven-month low of 8.09%, marginally ahead of market expectations of 8.07%. On a monthly basis, Mexican consumer prices edged 0.27% higher, slowing from the 0.56% increase in February. source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI)

BajaMama - 4-21-2023 at 09:03 AM

Inflation & devalued currency? Try Argentina. It is a good time to travel there. When we arrived mid-January the exchange rate was 182 pesos per dollar. On the "Blue Market" we got $365+. Now? The official exchange rate is 218 pesos per dollar. Our most expensive dinner, including lovely wine and generous tip was $65 US. This was in the cute popular tourist town of San Martin de los Andes! BTW, don't bother with Buenos Aries - 24 hours is enough, but Northern Patagonia is fabulous!

verichip - 4-21-2023 at 02:50 PM

Can you tell us more about the prices of things in Argentina? The price of fast food hotel rooms eggs a cross country bus ride?

JDCanuck - 4-23-2023 at 12:23 PM

Back to the original topic: I would say it depends how much more inflation and debt is encouraged as opposed to the competing currencies.
For Baja, we get cheaper imports and more trouble exporting cheap products and labourers.

BajaMama - 4-24-2023 at 01:07 PM

Can you tell us more about the prices of things in Argentina? The price of fast food hotel rooms eggs a cross country bus ride?

Hotels about $150 US/night. Did not purchase fast food (because, why? I don't eat garbage in the US either). Gas was under $2 US/gallon. A cross country flying bus ride was about $200 US round trip. Car rental $212 US for 5 days. 8 days guided fishing trip at two different hotels & glamping throughout the National Parks including airport transfer, meals, all the malbec you can drink, all transportation and gear $5792 US for two. Did not grocery shop either. I assume you were over served when you asked this?

[Edited on 4-26-2023 by BajaMama]

Paco Facullo - 4-27-2023 at 11:05 AM

Quote: Originally posted by BajaMama

Can you tell us more about the prices of things in Argentina? The price of fast food hotel rooms eggs a cross country bus ride?

Argentina can be done for 1/2 price , IF you don't use tours and accommodations paid for online, or use an ATM or credit card in the country.
Bring crisp $100 bills and exchange them on the "Blue market"

I was in Argentina in 2017 and 2019, the first time the blue market rate was 30 to 1 then 60 to 1

Now it's 465 to 1 and the official rate is 225 to 1

I'm leaving for Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil within the next month.

GO Bocas !!!!!

[Edited on 4-27-2023 by Paco Facullo]

4x4abc - 4-27-2023 at 12:07 PM

arguing about the exchange rate is like arguing about the weather. Yes, there are some rules - but in the end you get what the weather gods decide.

verichip - 4-27-2023 at 07:19 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Paco Facullo

Quote: Originally posted by BajaMama

Can you tell us more about the prices of things in Argentina? The price of fast food hotel rooms eggs a cross country bus ride?

I would definitely like to hear a long report about Uruguay.

JDCanuck - 5-7-2023 at 07:56 PM

USD/MXN appears to be heading lower yet. Now under 17.8 on forex and looking for a bottom despite rate increase. Anyone looking to build in this environment has to be wondering what it will all cost by the time they hit completion and final payments in Pesos. Trend for the past 3 years has been wicked.

[Edited on 5-8-2023 by JDCanuck]

RFClark - 5-7-2023 at 09:05 PM

JD,

Things in Pesos have gone up too. Steel has almost doubled in the last 6 months! I’m glad we’re almost done!

JDCanuck - 5-8-2023 at 04:15 AM

Quote: Originally posted by RFClark

JD,

Things in Pesos have gone up too. Steel has almost doubled in the last 6 months! I’m glad we’re almost done!

We just finally paid out our last pesos based building expenses too. During the entire construction process, we saw currency cost increases of over 25%, the supplies exploded up in cost for us as well on top of inability to obtain the hurricane windows and several other items we had designed in. Seems the only alternative was to have everything designed and built locally like you did. In total, a 300,000 house build ended up at around 400,000 and this with downgrades from the original design.

[Edited on 5-8-2023 by JDCanuck]

JDCanuck - 5-13-2023 at 07:36 AM

7 signs predicting further declines, Yield Curve Inversion is in decades extreme, as is the M2 money supply.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-ec...

Peso

PaulW - 5-13-2023 at 08:41 AM

What he said

JDCanuck - 5-13-2023 at 09:39 AM

Quote: Originally posted by JDCanuck

USD/MXN appears to be heading lower yet.

Is this not good for the local population?

Dual edged sword. It's an indication their inflation is more subdued by lowered imports, but they will have more difficulty exporting.
Overall, foreign investors expect Mexico growth to outpace US and Canada, which if they can keep up with their internal inflation, will mean more and higher paid jobs. I call it MAINLY good.
What we do know is anything we purchase in Pesos, and if our base is USD, EUR or CAD has exploded in price in only two years, and expected to get more expensive yet. I would not want to be starting to build a home under these conditions.

JDCanuck - 5-13-2023 at 09:51 AM

If I was Mexican frequently travelling to the US to acheive higher wages and send it home, I would be less inclined to do so under the present conditions than two years ago. (25% less inclined) so I think we can expect less illegal immigration and more Mexicans happily returning home. Mexican friends of mine have recently dropped from a 6 day to a 5 day work week, and seem to be far happier with present conditions, including the earnings increases they have seen.

[Edited on 5-13-2023 by JDCanuck]

Udo - 5-14-2023 at 09:10 AM

$16.5 to $17 pesos to the Dollar in San Felipe.