Hurricane Hilary

New storm brewing... not yet named, but should soon be Hilary. The NWS is saying likely to feed moisture to San Diego region this weekend, maybe even an inch of rain in san diego, say the forecasters. Here is NHC narrative...

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fernanda, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued development,
and a tropical depression or tropical storm is anticipated to form
within the next day or so. The system is expected to move
west-northwestward to northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the
next several days. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2






[Edited on 8-17-2023 by mtgoat666]

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo

Tracking it on Windy, it looks like it will wash the length of the Baja Penninsula! https://www.windy.com/?2023082015,27.294,-103.667,4,m:ej7ac3...

Quote: Originally posted by Phil C

I love it when the peninsula gets drenched without major wind.

It is a bit early in the season for me, but I may have to make a run just to catch the bloom!
Of course there could also be a bloom of insects

at least Hilary is gonna miss rosarito's popular beachfest, its over

Quote: Originally posted by lencho

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo   Mandatory evacuations are underway, but I think the air and ground attacks are making good progress! How are you set up should something start nearby? Could you defend your place?

Lencho,

I ‘ve been through 2 wildfires that burned over where I lived. Generally there are a few things you can do in advance, but leave quickly with your valuables is my advice.

The top picture is about 15 min before the fire reached our house. This was the 3rd fire that this house survived. The 2nd picture is the after picture.

This fire was not strongly wind driven but it actually rained burning bits and pieces that spread the fire. I used the emergency water to put out burning stuff after the fire passed (about 20 min).

The things made of metal came through the best. All the trees behind the house in the 1st picture burned.

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

Hilary is a large tropical storm. An elongated band of deep
convection curves around the southern and eastern side of the
circulation, and a Central Dense Overcast has begun to develop due
to new convection near Hilary's center, with possibly the formative
stages of an eye. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB
have jumped to a consensus T3.5/55 kt, and given the improved
satellite presentation since 06 UTC, the initial intensity is set at
60 kt.

Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest (300/11 kt), to the south
of a mid-tropospheric high stretching from the U.S. Rockies
southward into northern Mexico. The ridge is expected to shift
eastward to the Central Plains during the next 48 hours, while a
mid- to upper-level low moves eastward to the California coast. This
steering pattern evolution should cause Hilary to recurve toward the
northwest and then north during the next 3 days. Model guidance is
in generally good agreement on Hilary's future path, with a fairly
tightly packed guidance envelope for much of the forecast period.
Therefore, the new NHC track forecast is very close to a blend of
the previous forecast with the HFIP Corrected Consensus aid (HCCA)
and the TVCE consensus. Despite the high confidence in the track,
Hilary's oblique angle of approach to the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula does make it nearly impossible to know at this
point if the center will remain just offshore or move over the
peninsula before reaching the southwestern United States.

Negligible shear, very warm waters of 30 degrees Celsius, and
plentiful atmospheric moisture mean the environment is ripe for
Hilary to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days. In
fact, many of the SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are
showing a 100 percent chance of RI during the next 48 hours. The
NHC intensity forecast follows this thinking and shows Hilary
becoming a hurricane very soon and then a major hurricane by tonight
or early Friday, more or less a blend of the HCCA aid and the SHIPS
solutions. Hilary should reach waters colder than 26 degrees
Celsius soon after 72 hours, and fast weakening is indicated after
that time, especially if the storm crosses over the Baja California
peninsula. The surface circulation is likely to be dissipated by
day 5, but a day 5 forecast point (as a remnant low) is still
provided to maintain a forecast track north of the Baja California
peninsula.









Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
445 AM PDT Thu Aug 17 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system moving to near the California coast will
bring drier southwest flow aloft for today and Friday and begin to
spread cooling inland. For the weekend into early next week,
developing Hurricane Hilary is expected to bring a significant
surge of monsoonal and tropical moisture with widespread heavy
rainfall, especially for Sunday into Monday, and a high potential
for flash flooding in the mountains and deserts. Residual moisture
will maintain an active monsoon pattern through at least the
middle of next week with afternoon and evening thunderstorms in
the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.
Tropical Storm Hilary is expected to become a hurricane today and
rapidly intensify into a major hurricane as it moves northward off
the Pacific coast of southern Baja, eventually tracking near the
Pacific coast or inland through northern Baja as it moves
northward.

Regardless of the exact track, it will bring a substantial surge
of moisture into portions of southern California with a high
potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially for
the lower deserts into the adjacent mountains. The latest WPC
forecast has rainfall through Monday exceeding 5 inches for the
lower deserts into the adjacent mountains with 5 to 10 inches on
portions of the east slopes of the mountains. Potential wind
threats are less certain and more track dependent, generally
greater for a track a little farther west and less for a track a
little farther east.

Once this surge in moisture occurs, the moisture will be slow to
dissipate with an active monsoon pattern expected to persist
through at the least the middle of next week. NBM daily chances
of measurable rainfall at Big Bear remain above 30 percent through
Thursday of next week.

[Edited on 8-17-2023 by mtgoat666]

Quote: Originally posted by thebajarunner

Send it our way, por favor!! Our usual monsoons have been all dry so far Lots of wind (Monsoon means wind, not rain) and lots of tree damage but no rain Last Summer the Greater Phoenix area had about 3 massive rain events. This year, not a drip nor a drizzle. And Monsoon Season typically ends here September 15 The saguaros are dropping arms to conserve internal moisture.

be careful what you wish for. Current forecast thinks maybe 5+ inches of rain on east side of baja, imperial valley-san felipe region. with a bit of shift in storm track, phoenix could get slammed






[Edited on 8-17-2023 by mtgoat666]

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

Hilary's satellite presentation has continued to improve overnight,
with a solid ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a warming eye.
TAFB and SAB provided consensus Dvorak estimates of T6.0/115 kt
while objective estimates are a bit higher, between 125-135 kt.
The advisory intensity is therefore set at 125 kt as a blend
of the various estimates. Hilary has rapidly intensified by a
remarkable 65 kt over the past 24 hours. The hurricane remains
large, and the initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a
recent ASCAT-C pass. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Hilary around midday and
should provide a more precise estimate of the hurricane's intensity.

The hurricane continues to move toward the west-northwest, or 300/11
kt. However, with mid-tropospheric high pressure nudging eastward
from the Rocky Mountains into the Central Plains, and a cut-off low
off the California coast, Hilary is expected to turn northwestward
very soon and then turn northward and begin accelerating by 48
hours. The track guidance is more tightly clustered than usual
during the first 72 hours of the forecast, and therefore there is
relatively high confidence in the NHC track forecast, which is
essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. Since Hilary's
forecast track parallels the coast from the central Baja California
peninsula northward to southern California, it is still nearly
impossible to predict an exact landfall location, not to mention
that Hilary's exact landfall probably won't make much difference
when it comes to the expected hazards and impacts in the region.

Hilary could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours or
so. However, once hurricanes reach major hurricane strength, they
are prone to fluctuations in intensity, particularly if an eyewall
replacement begins. In addition, oceanic heat content will be
dropping significantly in 24-36 hours, and it's likely that Hilary's
large wind field will mix up cooler water ahead of the arrival of
the center. This colder water, as well as potential interaction
with the terrain of the Baja California peninsula, is expected to
induce faster weakening over the weekend, with Hilary likely to drop
below hurricane intensity some time on Sunday. Due to its
accelerating motion in 2 to 3 days, Hilary is still expected to be
producing tropical-storm-force winds when it reaches southern
California. The surface circulation is likely to dissipate soon
after moving into California, but a day 4 remnant low point is still
shown over the western U.S. for continuity purposes.









[Edited on 8-18-2023 by mtgoat666]

The Bit*h is back

The outer bands apptoch BCS. I’ll post pictures as long as possible.

We’re ready! Were we paranoid enough?

Quote: Originally posted by RFClark

We’re ready! Were we paranoid enough?

Quote: Originally posted by JZ

Do I need to think about taking my boat out of the water? [Edited on 8-18-2023 by JZ]

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo

Quote: Originally posted by JZ   Do I need to think about taking my boat out of the water? [Edited on 8-18-2023 by JZ] I recommend that you verify that your bilge pump is functioning, and has a reliable power supply. I have seen boats in Southeast Alaska take on enough rainwater to sink while moored.

Quote: Originally posted by AlanDavid90

A disaster is coming...

Quote: Originally posted by JZ

What's the worst case scenario for LA in terms of wind/rain. Do I need to think about taking my boat out of the water? I doubt it, but thought I'd ask. Right now, the NOAA forecast is showing gusts to 45mph on Monday. [Edited on 8-18-2023 by JZ]

Quote: Originally posted by AlanDavid90

A disaster is coming...

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT8NooqdS/

Quote: Originally posted by StuckSucks

A friend has a 48' sailboat in Marina del Rey. This morning we went down and dropped the jib, also secured other stuff for weather. BTW this was a big-axe/heavy jib.

Quote: Originally posted by Bajazly

Why would you leave the jib, or any other sail for that matter up when docked?

Quote: Originally posted by JZ

Was in MDR the last 3 days. Just left this afternoon. Place I stayed at was at the docks.

Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666

Quote: Originally posted by Bajazly   Why would you leave the jib, or any other sail for that matter up when docked? Best to take down roller furler sails in a storm for moored boats. If the sails come loose, the boat catches more wind, and chaos ensues

windy.com prediction for noon, Sunday:

40 kt winds San Felipe, 20 kt San Diego.







[Edited on 8-19-2023 by SFandH]

Cabo = Baja?

So far Hillary hasn’t been that bad!

This morning’s picture.

4/10ths of an inch of rain and 40MPH winds

Quote: Originally posted by lencho

Quote: Originally posted by BajaBlanca   I saw a video of La Paz - major flooding in the streets. "Major" is probably an exaggeration-- La Paz streets are its storm drain system and this happens every time there's a cloudburst. Always pains my heart to see all that fresh water running down into the bay, but it does kind of flush things clean.

Latest satellite photo of Hillary

Hillary seems to be loosing strength and organization over the cooler water. Hopefully it won’t be as bad as was first thought.

It seems to be raining as far north across Baja as about 100Km south of San Ignacio. The rain at the coasts is generally lite.

Quote: Originally posted by Timo1

I'm in Asuncion and so far just steady rain during the night and all of today so far. It is 11 am here sat. morning

Hillary’s gone again! Some wind not much rain,

.37” of rain gusts to 42Mph.

Quote: Originally posted by bajaric

Steady light rain all night in east San Diego, continuing this morning. Less than 1 inch. The "eye" is supposed to arrive here tonight (Sunday) or what is left of it after it crosses all that cold water north of Punta Eugenia.

Rain has picked up a bit. Just got the Emergency Alert on my phone.



[Edited on 8-20-2023 by JZ]

Quote: Originally posted by twogringos

Where did you see posts from Bahia Asuncion?

if a tropical storm wasn't enough our friends in Ojai just had a 5.0 earthquake, mother nature is PO'ed

Hillary’s gone again.

On to the next one!

[Edited on 8-20-2023 by RFClark]

I felt the earthquake. Actually got a notice before the shaking started.





[Edited on 8-20-2023 by JZ]

San Diego reports?

Quote: Originally posted by twogringos

Where did you see posts from Bahia Asuncion?

Quote: Originally posted by twogringos

Where did you see posts from Bahia Asuncion?

Quote: Originally posted by geraldalexander7

What’s the storm doing in San Diego?

Hwy 5 ?

Just noticed a video supposedly Hwy5. The guys cited the wrong Km
See the pics and what do you think?
Facebook San Felipe Talk

Quote: Originally posted by geraldalexander7

What’s the storm doing in San Diego?

Quote: Originally posted by 4x4abc

km 155, Arroyo Santa Maria. That is how all bridges in Baja have failed. Reinforcement for the landing usually bad. And they did not want to spend the money on 50 more meters of bridge.

Can you be more specific as to which part of the Baja highway, please (I assume Hwy. 1). For example:
Cabo San Lucas to La Paz, La Paz to Insurgentes, Cd. Insurgentes to Loreto, etc.
Thanks Harald, it makes it easier for us old guys to not have to guess.

David,

I think that it’s this bridge. It’s just south of the rest area before the entrance to Punta Final (29.7226346, -114.4063720)



[Edited on 8-21-2023 by RFClark]

Quote: Originally posted by RFClark

David, I think that it’s this bridge. It’s just south of the reat area before the entrance to Punta Final (29.7226346, -114.4063720)

Quote: Originally posted by RFClark

David, Anyone heard if the two bridges south of Santa Rosalia survived? [Edited on 8-21-2023 by RFClark]

Quote: Originally posted by RFClark

David, I think the poor footing design is deliberate. I think they would rather loose the approaches than loose the whole bridge. That said I may be giving them credit they don’t deserve.

Quote: Originally posted by Santiago

Quote: Originally posted by RFClark   David, I think the poor footing design is deliberate. I think they would rather loose the approaches than loose the whole bridge. That said I may be giving them credit they don’t deserve. Slight hijack: is the footing where the road leaves the ground and starts to span? I'm thinking that the 'footing' would be the foundation that is under the piers? I must be wrong?

Took the ponies to the park late afternoon during the TS.

Lencho,

See the gate’s not locked!

And a little further north....Burning Man is all wet!

Arroyo Santa María/ Las Arrastras bridge detour open

It’s been a week since we started preparing for the arrival of Hurricane Hilary here on the central Pacific coast in the Municipality of Mulege. It was the biggest hurricane ever to hit our area and left a terrible disaster after high winds toppled trees, garages, roofs etc and the over 25' waves came up into the main street of town at high tide. The best thing is that we got very little rain so streets arent flooded and traffic is flowing fine now.

It's official, Bahia Asuncion was declared a disaster zone after Hilary. I was astounded how fast CFE got power back on the very next day and internet too! The military brought in a huge crew by helicopter to clean up the streets and provide aid to the folks left without houses. The government responded very quickly and the Governor and Municipal president flew in as well to assess the situation and reassure the village that help was imminent.




[img]https://i.imgur.com/lyUTARP.jpg?1[/img]



It seems like it was just yesterday as this week has been a whirlwind of emotion and massive clean up and recovery from the worst hurricane ever to hit our area. I am still physically very sore & traumatized grappling with the enormous task of repairing all the damage. Little by little with lots of help we are picking up the mess….I found things that blew out of my garage 2 miles away!
Here at La Bufadora Inn, the hotel part which is newer is fine with hardly any damage except to my beautiful gardens. Thanks to my friends and great crew we are all cleaned up & open for business and sure hope people come our way!

My house is in rough shape with some roof that flew off so it flooded badly. The walls were covered with sand and seaweed from the huge swells that lashed the cliffside. Two garages blew down completely & some gates torn off. In the morning when I took a look at the devastation, I was sure I parked my truck in the garage but there it was out in the open! I didn’t realize the whole garage was down.



Campo Sirena was damaged too but will be finished fixing up today! The Beach House was fine! Just a lot of debris.

I have been trying to coordinate help for my daughter who suffered terrible damage at our new Hacienda Baja Magic. She is just starting out with her new business and really needs our help. Here is what she wrote about the storm.

SIRENA BONDY’S ACCOUNT OF HURRICAINE HILLARY at her Hacienda Baja Magic…3 DAYS AFTER.

Reading through all the posts, comments and scrolling through photos that our friends took up and down Baja, I feel a knot form in my throat and tears in my eyes. As I look around our home, that doubles as our business and a home away from home for Baja Travelers, I realize the magnitude of damage that we sustained here at our Hacienda Baja Magic in Guerrero Negro as well.

The night of Saturday, August 19th, and early morning of Sunday, August 20th, 2023, our beloved towns of the municipality of Mulege in Baja California Sur, were hit by the largest hurricane I have seen in my 33 years on this planet.
As usual, a couple of days before, we heard on social media and weather platforms that a storm was coming. We began with our usual preparations, taking down tents, boarding up windows, reinforcing fences, tying down roofs, purchasing essentials like gas, canned food, drinking water, etc. I don’t think anyone was prepared for the amount of destruction that Hilary would leave in her wake.

As we were getting ready to go to bed Saturday night, I truly believed that it was “just another rain storm” and due to the fact we, in central parts like Guerrero Negro, rarely get hit too hard, I was confident that I would wake up to very little damage…I was wrong.
At about midnight power began to flicker and we could hear the wind raging outside of our bedroom window. Doors were rattling and trees were heard straining against the relentless winds. As my youngest son climbed into bed with me from a mattress I had put beside us on the floor for him. My first pinch of fear was “what if the window bursts and he is up here with us?” which sent my mind in to overdrive in a domino effect of plans and concerns for us, as well as all of our loved ones up and down the peninsula.

Then came the thought of my Mom, hours away, facing this raging storm by herself. I mentally reviewed all of her security measures and the strategies we had always had in place when I was growing up in case of a storm…while I felt confident that she could handle pretty much anything I was still worried to the point of being sick to my stomach.

All the while the door rattling became louder and more prominent…until finally I heard something crack. My first instinct was to jump up and go check what it was, but my partner Charly of course being the voice of reason, held me back and said we were in the safest place in our home and we could check on everything in the morning because it was not worth getting hurt over…I am so glad he did.

After a sleepless night of hearing glass breaking, wood cracking, and many loud bangs over the span of a few hours, daylight came through the blinds, and even though the storm raged on, the wind was considerably less than it had been hours before.
Not being able to wait any longer I clutched a flashlight and crept out to our living room, where through glass doors I saw the utter destruction in our clubhouse. The roof above our small indoor pool was torn clean off and was folded backward, laying on top of our kitchen roof, large beams still suspended almost in mid-air and clashing up and down with the wind still. Our front and back doors were broken open by the force of the winds. The cement wall top part was torn off and embedded in the part of the roof that had been raised about 15 cm. As I looked outside, I saw that a whole portion of our wooden fence had been completely blown down and was laying in the middle of the road covered by a large puddle with mud and debris from other homes in the area. Our beautiful garden which we spent months tending to and bringing back to glory was flattened, our trees bare, and not even birds could be heard.

I don’t think it fully registered until a couple of hours later when we tried to patch up everything as best we could, all I was focused on was survival mode in case the winds picked up again, not rationally realizing the storm was over.



I am well aware there were people that lost so much more, sadly this Hurricane took at least 4 lives, and we are fortunate to be healthy and have our loved ones safe and sound. However, the daunting task of rebuilding both the Baja Magic Hacienda and my Mom’s Bufadora Inn will be costly and ongoing… but as with everything we do it will be done with love and care.

We are so blessed to have friends and family that continue to support and help us, which truly does mean the world to us. We are overwhelmed by everyone’s response to this tragedy and appreciate the help you are all willing to give. So many of you have offered to bring construction materials down and while appreciated, we would really love to support our local businesses in buying materials for rebuilding, that way we can also help them get back on their feet. My Mom set up a link we can send you if you want to help with our recovery.

Everything raised here will go directly to the repairs needed so we can be up and running to receive guests as soon as possible. We will also be setting up a local drop spot here at the Hacienda for any clothes, blankets, materials people drop off when coming through which we in turn will deliver to other families in need locally.

We thank you from the bottom of our hearts for always stepping up and helping in our times of need, those who know us know we do not hesitate to do the same when our friends need us. If you care to help please go to my personal facebook page or to Baja Magicmx on Facebook to find the link to directly send donations to us.

https://donate.stripe.com/9AQ6oDdQM6Ow1YQaEE



[Edited on 8-26-2023 by shari]