Their current forecast shows a system streaming across Southern Mexico to the Pacific where it turns into a tropical depression a few hundred miles
offshore. It then is forecast to head back north eastward toward the tip of Baja
I know a lot can change in the next week or so, but it is something to keep an eye on! In case you are not familiar with "Windy", hit the arrow on
the bottom left to put the forecast in motion.
[Edited on 10-19-2023 by BajaNomad]BooJumMan - 10-16-2023 at 06:01 AM
Been watching that for a few days myself. Each model run changes between both the GFS and ECMWF. I think Windy defaults to ECMWF? Anyway it was
showing a direct hit to Cabo just 3 days ago. The NHC is tracking it and showing the track to go up and hit Puerta Vallarta area. I trust the human
forecast model over the computer generated for things like this when the model guidance is all over the place. bkbend - 10-16-2023 at 07:09 AM
In the windy settings you can switch between those two models, I'll do that and split the difference. AKgringo - 10-16-2023 at 08:30 AM
Been watching that for a few days myself. Each model run changes between both the GFS and ECMWF. I think Windy defaults to ECMWF? Anyway it was
showing a direct hit to Cabo just 3 days ago. The NHC is tracking it and showing the track to go up and hit Puerta Vallarta area. I trust the human
forecast model over the computer generated for things like this when the model guidance is all over the place.
NHC is not identifying anything in their forecast similar to what you are seeing in windy. Windy just spits out computer model results with zero
interpretation by a human -- the predictions more than a few days out are usually worthless junk. Don't trust windy for forecasts a week plus -- read
the NHC posts for more accurate forecasts. StuckSucks - 10-16-2023 at 09:17 AM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 16 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing showers and
thunderstorms and is gradually becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or two. This system is expected to move slowly westward
and then turn northwestward late in the week offshore of the coast
of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.RFClark - 10-17-2023 at 11:04 AM
Today Windy has the yet to be storm doing a loop west of BCS then crossing the southern tip of BCS next Tuesday!
Stay tuned, the forecast changes every 6 hours. This is how the bad ones start!StuckSucks - 10-17-2023 at 11:40 AM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 17 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico have become better
organized this morning. If these trends continue, advisories will
likely be initiated on this system as a tropical depression or
tropical storm later today. Additional information on this system,
including gale and storm warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
Norma is born!
RFClark - 10-17-2023 at 04:03 PM
The forecast thinks that the track will be to the right side of the envelope. Don’t count on it! 100kn winds around the center by landfall Sunday.
AKgringo - 10-17-2023 at 05:14 PM
What could add to the concern about the eventual track this storm takes, is that it appears to be moving slower than usual. What ever the wind and
rainfall winds up being, it might take many hours to pass!mtgoat666 - 10-17-2023 at 05:59 PM
Nhc saying the track forecast is a bit of a SWAG:
Norma is moving west-northwestward at an estimated motion of 285/9
kt. The system is expected to turn more northwestward at a slightly
slower forward speed during the next few days around the western
periphery of a mid-level ridge. Towards the end of the forecast
period as the system moves toward the Baja peninsula, there is a
notable divergence among the model suite. A stronger vortex, as
depicted in the GFS/CMC model, would be picked up by an approaching
trough from the northwest and move the system northeastward towards
the Baja peninsula. However, a weaker vortex would tend to meander
south of the peninsula and be missed by the approaching trough,
like the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. Since the NHC intensity forecast
is on the strong side of the guidance, the official track is closer
to the right side of the guidance envelope, more similar to the GFS
and HCCA models.El Jefe - 10-18-2023 at 02:16 PM
It looked all clear a week ago so the storm shutters came down. Hmm. We are here on the near east cape by La Fortuna and will let you all know how it
shakes out this weekend. Nice breeze out of the south right now and the skies are clouding over after a couple of hot sunny days.
Hurricane Norma
mtgoat666 - 10-18-2023 at 09:29 PM
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 108.0 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is anticipated
for the next couple of days. A slower motion is forecast is expected
by the weekend. On the forecast track, Norma could approach the
southern portion of Baja California on Saturday.
[Edited on 10-19-2023 by mtgoat666]BajaNomad - 10-18-2023 at 11:02 PM
Zoom Earth shows Norma hitting Cabo as a Category 1 hurricane last Saturday night.
StuckSucks - 10-19-2023 at 08:26 AM
RFClark - 10-19-2023 at 08:48 AM
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 191452
TCDEP2
Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023
Norma has continued to show signs of strengthening this morning. The
15 to 20 n-mi-wide eye of the hurricane is surrounded by a thick
ring of convective cloud tops colder than -70 to -75C. The initial
intensity is raised to 115 kt based on consensus T6.0/115 kt
subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Norma later today.
The eye of Norma has deviated right of track during the past 6-12 h,
and the longer-term motion is nearly due north (360/6 kt). The
track forecast remains challenging. Even in the near term, there is
significant spread among the various models, likely related to
differences in the steering flow based on the vertical depth of the
cyclone. Given recent trends, the NHC forecast has been adjusted to
the right of the previous one through 60 h, bringing it just east of
the multi-model consensus aids and favoring the stronger GFS and
regional hurricane models. Thereafter, it remains unclear whether
Norma will turn northeastward and approach the west coast of
mainland Mexico, or stall and meander to the south of the Baja
California peninsula. The official forecast continues to show Norma
moving toward mainland Mexico beyond 60 h, albeit slower than some
of the stronger model guidance (GFS, HAFS) with a deeper vortex.
Once again, confidence is low and future track and/or speed
adjustments could be required.
Recent satellite images and model shear analyses suggest that
southerly shear is increasing over Norma and will continue to do
so over the next couple of days. Therefore, the hurricane is likely
near its peak intensity, although some small fluctuations cannot be
ruled out today. By Friday, weakening is expected as Norma likely
becomes more tilted by the shear and moves into a drier and more
stable environment. Still, Norma could be at or near hurricane
strength when it makes its closest approach to the southern tip of
Baja California, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Beyond 72 h,
the intensity forecast is more uncertain and highly dependent on
Norma's track, structure, and the extent (if any) of land
interaction with the Baja peninsula. If Norma moves faster than
forecast, it could reach the west coast of mainland Mexico as a
stronger storm. Given the track uncertainty described above,
interests there are encouraged to closely monitor forecast updates.
[Edited on 10-19-2023 by RFClark]AKgringo - 10-19-2023 at 09:31 AM
Norma seems confused!bkbend - 10-19-2023 at 09:50 AM
The models seem to be drifting a little more to the right except for a few outliers. I wouldn't want to have a ferry trip scheduled out of La Paz this
weekend.pauldavidmena - 10-20-2023 at 06:53 AM
The forecasted path and strength of Norma hasn't changed much since yesterday. Buckle up, amigos!
El Jefe - 10-20-2023 at 01:42 PM
A light rain started about an hour ago. You could cut the humidity with a knife. My neighbors and I are putting up the hurricane shutters.
The GIANT surf is sure fun to watch. i'm glad I got a few yesterday morning before it exceeded my limit. We are ready to be without a road to town for
a few days since this looks like a big rain event.
Saludos from La Fortuna Hook - 10-20-2023 at 07:13 PM
There is, or was, one computer model from the last six hours that has it going "up the gut".
There is a somewhat morbid side of me that would love to see what a tropical disturbance would do if it headed up the Sea of Cortez for a few hundred
miles. Would the super warm water increase its intensity?
I really can't recall one doing that in the 40 or so years I have been following them. At least not for a few hundred miles.shari - 10-20-2023 at 08:58 PM
its gonna get gnarly...get some rest while you can those of you in the path of the monster! Gonna dump lots of water so flooding is inevitable and
it's gonna be a long day tomorrow on the tip.
Be safe everyone.Hook - 10-21-2023 at 05:42 AM
Look out, Todos Santos! Looks like it may come onshore NW of the tip of BCS.pauldavidmena - 10-21-2023 at 06:26 AM
Current track calls for landfall this afternoon as a Category 2 storm. Friends of ours in Pescadero are hunkered down and hanging tight.
One station in Cabo is showing almost 6" of rain. Gusts approaching 60 kts.
[Edited on 10-21-2023 by Hook]
Norma Passes
RFClark - 10-21-2023 at 10:28 AM
Winds 15mph gusts 30ish mph barometer 29.13 down 7 points since 07:00 currently no rain.
The center of rotation is behind the left white post.
[Edited on 10-21-2023 by RFClark]
Norma may have passed, center of rotation is right of left white post, the glass has risen 2 points!
[Edited on 10-21-2023 by RFClark]
El Jefe - 10-21-2023 at 10:29 AM
I collected 5 inches of rain in the bucket last night. This morning has only seen light rain. The wind is picking up now and the palms are wapping
around. I think more big rain is on the way. Already there is significant erosion on the dirt roads on the east cape.
Glad we have Starlink internet. Our neighbors' systems are down.4x4abc - 10-21-2023 at 11:07 AM
BAD STORM!
road to my house is gone
power is out
lotsa rain
severe damage to my property
lost 20 ft palm trees
all locally built windows and doors leak - a lot
all my US windows are, as they should be, tight and dry
pool is overflowing
about 7" of rain so far
and the heavy rain has not even arrived yet
about as bad as Odile in 2004
thank god for Honda generators!
RFClark - 10-21-2023 at 11:12 AM
The NE quadrant seems to be the wet part of Norma. I thought it had passed but the barometer dropped to 29.12 so maybe not yet.4x4abc - 10-21-2023 at 11:23 AM
the bad part of the storm is still 12 hours out RFClark - 10-21-2023 at 11:48 AM
We have intermittent sun here but the barometer is 29.07! Down 13 points so far todaySweetwater - 10-22-2023 at 08:17 AM
I've got 2 buddies on motorcycles who are stuck in La Paz. They are wondering about the roads heading north to Constitucion. Any chance they could get
to Loreto? Lee - 10-22-2023 at 08:50 AM
I've got 2 buddies on motorcycles who are stuck in La Paz. They are wondering about the roads heading north to Constitucion. Any chance they could get
to Loreto?
Seasoned riders might suggest being stuck in LP, rather than at some Vado outside CC, is the better choice. Esp. on bikes.
I say stay put for a day or two or hear someone has driven the road.surfhat - 10-22-2023 at 12:39 PM
Possible weather delays should always be considered for any Baja trip.
It pays to be able to wait out the weather when it happens. And why not?
Last Feb. on my return north from GN in San Quintin at the Mision de Santa Maria a moto rider I talked to had been delayed for hours on end at the
same spot I made it through hours earlier.
Timing can be everything when Mother Nature makes her calls. The lowest spot in the Valle de Cirios will flow.
Enjoying another day in place can always be put to good use.
surfhat - 10-22-2023 at 12:42 PM
4by4 That photo is a vision to be treasured. Good catch. Mil Gracious.
Baja Nomad at its finest is always appreciated. AKgringo - 10-22-2023 at 04:04 PM
IR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc23/EPAC/17E.NORMA/vapor/modis/1km&TYPE=ssmi&PROD=gif
