THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF DALILA THIS
EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT NEAR THE CENTER...CLOSE ENOUGH AT 00Z TO RESULT
IN A T3.0...45 KT...DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION HAS RETREATED A BIT SINCE THEN. ON THE OTHER HAND...AN
ASCAT PASS AROUND 1630 UTC SUGGESTED PEAK WINDS OF ONLY AROUND 30
KT. AS A COMPROMISE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.
DALILA HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK AND MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 340/7. MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
NORTH OF DALILA NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA...ERODING THE RIDGING THAT HAD
BEEN STEERING THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF DALILA
AND ENHANCES A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR DALILA TO BEGIN TO FEEL DEEP LAYER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND CURVE BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS A LITTLE LESS CLUSTERED THAN IT
WAS EARLIER TODAY...AND THE GFDN NOW SHOWS A TRACK VERY NEAR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS SLOWLY DECREASING...AND SHOULD SOON
PERMIT DALILA TO STRENGTHEN. BY 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BE NEAR THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...WHEN A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE THAN THEY WERE EARLIER...ALL PEAKING A LITTLE BELOW THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
WOW !!! The picture I understood. CaboRonbajajudy - 7-23-2007 at 03:19 PM
Everytime I look at the forecast, we are creeping more and more into the cone. Not worried but interesting. As of 4pm we have a 5% chance of
tropical storm force winds. I would have to say SURF'S UP aside from that no worrys.Hook - 7-23-2007 at 03:23 PM
Surf's up later this week in Abreojos?????bajajudy - 7-24-2007 at 01:34 PM
Looks like she is tracking more to the west. We should still get some swell. A drop or two of rain would be nice too....just a drop though.
Maybe so....
neilmac - 7-24-2007 at 03:57 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Hook
Surf's up later this week in Abreojos?????
Tropical Storm Dalila (45 mph) is slowly strengthening while moving toward the NNW in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Dalila is currently located over 700
miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
The storm is expected to continue strengthening for the next 24 hours or so, and then level off in intensity with top sustained winds near 60 mph.
Dalila's track may shift a bit more to the northwest, so it should bypass Baja California well to the west.
SURF MAY INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAJA COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EVENTUALLY BUILDING INTO THE 6- TO 10-FOOT RANGE.
Neil
Holas?
BFS - 7-26-2007 at 08:09 PM
Did some swell show up in Cabo from this?
Aqjoel - 7-26-2007 at 09:21 PM
Did in San Juanico. Fun.bajajudy - 7-27-2007 at 06:57 AM
aqbluegreen
Yes but they are long goneshari - 7-27-2007 at 09:43 AM
It's real hot (for here anyway) but the swell seems to have gone down a bit today...enough for Juan to take a couple more NOmads yellow tail slaying.
(probably will lose their chilaquilles though)
CaboRon