Frigatebird
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Tropical Storm Dalila
From the National Hurricane Center:
Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion
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Home Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240241
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
800 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2007
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF DALILA THIS
EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT NEAR THE CENTER...CLOSE ENOUGH AT 00Z TO RESULT
IN A T3.0...45 KT...DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION HAS RETREATED A BIT SINCE THEN. ON THE OTHER HAND...AN
ASCAT PASS AROUND 1630 UTC SUGGESTED PEAK WINDS OF ONLY AROUND 30
KT. AS A COMPROMISE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.
DALILA HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK AND MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 340/7. MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
NORTH OF DALILA NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA...ERODING THE RIDGING THAT HAD
BEEN STEERING THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF DALILA
AND ENHANCES A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR DALILA TO BEGIN TO FEEL DEEP LAYER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND CURVE BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS A LITTLE LESS CLUSTERED THAN IT
WAS EARLIER TODAY...AND THE GFDN NOW SHOWS A TRACK VERY NEAR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS SLOWLY DECREASING...AND SHOULD SOON
PERMIT DALILA TO STRENGTHEN. BY 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BE NEAR THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...WHEN A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE THAN THEY WERE EARLIER...ALL PEAKING A LITTLE BELOW THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 16.1N 109.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 17.1N 109.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 18.1N 110.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 19.8N 111.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 23.5N 116.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 24.5N 120.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
[Edited on 7-24-2007 by Frigatebird]
Avatar courtesy of Herb 
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CaboRon
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WOW !!! The picture I understood.  CaboRon
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bajajudy
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Everytime I look at the forecast, we are creeping more and more into the cone. Not worried but interesting. As of 4pm we have a 5% chance of
tropical storm force winds. I would have to say SURF'S UP aside from that no worrys.
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Hook
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Surf's up later this week in Abreojos?????
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bajajudy
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Looks like she is tracking more to the west. We should still get some swell. A drop or two of rain would be nice too....just a drop though.
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neilmac
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Maybe so....
| Quote: | Originally posted by Hook
Surf's up later this week in Abreojos????? |
Tropical Storm Dalila (45 mph) is slowly strengthening while moving toward the NNW in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Dalila is currently located over 700
miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
The storm is expected to continue strengthening for the next 24 hours or so, and then level off in intensity with top sustained winds near 60 mph.
Dalila's track may shift a bit more to the northwest, so it should bypass Baja California well to the west.
SURF MAY INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAJA COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EVENTUALLY BUILDING INTO THE 6- TO 10-FOOT RANGE.
Neil
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BFS
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Holas?
Did some swell show up in Cabo from this?
Aq
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joel
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Did in San Juanico. Fun.
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bajajudy
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aqbluegreen
Yes but they are long gone
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shari
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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It's real hot (for here anyway) but the swell seems to have gone down a bit today...enough for Juan to take a couple more NOmads yellow tail slaying.
(probably will lose their chilaquilles though)
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