BajaNomad - Hurricane Dean Predicted Path

Hurricane Dean Predicted Path

Iflyfish - 8-20-2007 at 03:37 AM

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/storms.asp?ocean=...

Iflyfish

Russ - 8-20-2007 at 06:17 AM

From the above site. Thanks Pam

screenshot_01.jpg - 45kB

Quien Sabe ?

MrBillM - 8-20-2007 at 09:08 AM

Given the lack of accurate 3-5 day forecasts, once it slams through the Yucatan, the likely path will be far more clear. Texans are, of course, hoping that the current track holds true.

Russ - 8-20-2007 at 09:14 AM

Forecast:

screenshot_02.jpg - 45kB

Russ - 8-20-2007 at 09:20 AM

The above was not intended to be offensive. Just playing at taking screen shots and seeing if they'll post

toneart - 8-20-2007 at 10:06 AM

If that path holds true, could it arrive in Baja as a tropical storm? Any history of a hurricane traversing the mainland and still holding together by the time it reaches Baja? Obviously, our concern in Mulege is potential flooding of the river again.

Diver - 8-20-2007 at 10:28 AM

Historic storm tracks show similar storms crossing onto or over the mainland. Clouds, wind and rain from the storm could definitely hit Baja; it's just a matter of how hard. It's the rains that got Mulege and washed out many roads last time.

.

toneart - 8-20-2007 at 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Diver
Historic storm tracks show similar storms crossing onto or over the mainland. Clouds, wind and rain from the storm could definitely hit Baja; it's just a matter of how hard. It's the rains that got Mulege and washed out many roads last time.

.

It washed out a lot more than roads!

Bob H - 8-20-2007 at 11:19 AM

I would say Mexico is in for a triple wammy! Through the Yucatan, then restrengthen, landfall again in the vicinity of Tampico, then on to Baja as a tropical depression.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/americas/08/20/hurricane.dean/...

Let's hope that everyone gets out of it's path. Don't stay around for anything like this, cat 4's and 5's are very bad. I wouldn't even hang around for a cat 3.

Bob H

CaboRon - 8-20-2007 at 02:20 PM

I predict a hard right hook in the Yucaton ... and on to Padre Island.

Diver - 8-20-2007 at 02:58 PM

Seems no-one else think so .....

storm_04.gif - 24kB

bajajudy - 8-20-2007 at 03:52 PM

Ok
I am going to say this again.
No more dancing, guys.
We could get something from Dean, maybe

Diver where did you get that graph?

Diver - 8-20-2007 at 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajajudy
Diver where did you get that graph?

http://www.eebmike.com/

This site also has radar of your area.
(usually in operation but it's down now).

.

[Edited on 8-20-2007 by Diver]

bajajudy - 8-20-2007 at 05:51 PM

thanks diver but I went to this

http://www.sfwmd.gov/site/index.php?id=1

Kind of an interesting site too.

That must be new to eebmike.

Deadeye Dean

MrBillM - 8-20-2007 at 06:21 PM

Upgraded to Cat 5. Now (according to the news) five hours out of Cancun.

Great TV. Blowing like Heck already. The Stupid newscaster standing out in the wind about to be blown over.

It will be interesting.

Bajalero - 8-20-2007 at 06:36 PM

Simular storm tracks

Diver - 8-20-2007 at 09:39 PM

Oh Judy.....

See that line going to Cabo ????

Looks like it's moving more westerly and strengthening.
Seems Baja will get some rain from this thing by Friday.

.

at200704_model.gif - 31kB

toneart - 8-20-2007 at 09:47 PM

In Mulege, water is our enemy. We would get the torrential blast from the east, and then we will have to hold our breaths to see what comes down the arroyos in the mountains into the river. I hope I'm wrong....just on edge from last year.

bajadogs - 8-20-2007 at 10:15 PM

I think Mulege will be lucky to get a shower out of this one. That's a lot of high altitude land between the Carribean and the Sea of Cortez. This is no John, at least not for Baja.

Russ - 8-21-2007 at 05:07 AM

From Weather Underground 6 am here Tues

Dean forecast8:21:07.jpg - 49kB

JZ - 8-21-2007 at 04:34 PM

Based on the GDFL model, it looks like we better start watching this one pretty close. It shows it crossing over emerging as a tropical storm, re-forming into a cat 1, going straight up the SOC, and hitting a cat 3 around Santa Rosalia!

Edit: I'm not sure why the graphic isn't displaying, anyone want to offer some assistance.

<img src="http://icons.wunderground.com/data/storm_radar/dean04l.2007082112_anim.gif?cache=191">

[Edited on 8-21-2007 by JZ]

DianaT - 8-21-2007 at 05:15 PM

Testing---don't know if it will work---may be too big.

It worked! JZ, I saved the photo (gif image) to my computer, then sent it to photobucket, resized it and then posted it here.

Sure hope this model is not correct.

Diane

[Edited on 8-22-2007 by jdtrotter]

bajajudy - 8-21-2007 at 05:40 PM

Yikes...
You hope it isnt correct!
I pray it isnt.

bajajudy - 8-21-2007 at 05:48 PM

Check out the website of GFDL
The people who did the above model

http://www.gfdl.gov/

edinnopolo - 8-21-2007 at 06:01 PM

Find it hard to believe that this storm can survive the high mountainous region of central and western Mexico. If it was closer to the Isthmus maybe, but this is a lot of terrain to traverse. Hope my doubts are correct. :?:

bajajudy - 8-21-2007 at 06:05 PM

I am inclined to agree with you Ed.
You did stop dancing, didnt you?

edinnopolo - 8-21-2007 at 06:11 PM

Yes Judy, we did. Humidity made my arthritis act up

Some Geronimo must be dancing a serious jig in the midwest though. :?:

comitan - 8-21-2007 at 07:12 PM

I'm sorry but thats only one model, the others show completely different paths.

bajajudy - 8-21-2007 at 07:32 PM

Oh I am not sorry.
BUT it is a very interesting model, I think. They have some very interesting fluid models on their website...precipitation, water vapor, and temperature for the world. It was interesting to see, I thought.
The historical models dont show any hurricanes making it over the mountains. I believe it would be a first.

DianaT - 8-21-2007 at 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajajudy
Oh I am not sorry.
BUT it is a very interesting model, I think. They have some very interesting fluid models on their website...precipitation, water vapor, and temperature for the world. It was interesting to see, I thought.
The historical models dont show any hurricanes making it over the mountains. I believe it would be a first.

The first thing we thought about was the mountains---since it has not happened before for all the reasons we know, I wonder why they created this model? What do they think is different this time? Would be interesting to know

Any ideas?

Diane

JZ - 8-21-2007 at 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by comitan
I'm sorry but thats only one model, the others show completely different paths.

Uhh, okk.... The other models have been posted on the first page. Everyone can see them. In fact the GDFL has already changed. No one claimed differently. At the time of posting, one other model was going straight up the SOC as well and one was running parallel along the coast line.

Btw, it is one of several respected models (1 of 5 used by NHFC), and it only takes one to be right and you not to be prepared...

You should be sorry for that sorry post...

[Edited on 8-22-2007 by JZ]

bajadogs - 8-21-2007 at 09:16 PM

Always be prepared. I just don't see a hurricane rolling across mainland Mexico from the Carribean to Baja. A little rain would be nice, right? That's all Baja may get out of this.

Bajaboy - 8-21-2007 at 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajadogs
Always be prepared. I just don't see a hurricane rolling across mainland Mexico from the Carribean to Baja. A little rain would be nice, right? That's all Baja may get out of this.

I'll second that...Baja definitely could use some rain.

Cap - 8-21-2007 at 10:10 PM

Watch the historical paths, storms from this area almost never make it as far west as Baja. I think you might find the penninsula a tad greener if storms like this made it over the Sierra Madres.
Storms and large scale construction projects, are the two most overated stories in Mexican news.

bajajudy - 8-21-2007 at 10:15 PM

Quote:

Cap, So we agree!

[Edited on 8-22-2007 by bajajudy]

Cap - 8-22-2007 at 06:39 AM

Quote:

Cap, So we agree!

[Edited on 8-22-2007 by bajajudy]

Its not the first time, I have just been quiet about it before. I enjoy your posts. :yes:

toneart - 8-22-2007 at 10:36 AM

Quote:

A little rain is nice. A lot of rain is disastrous for Mulege, along the river. Here's hoping for green desert and rivers contained within their banks. :yes:

Osprey - 8-22-2007 at 10:42 AM

How many make it over the mountains? Depends on where you look.

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

Cypress - 8-22-2007 at 11:55 AM

There's just no way to predict for certain the path these storms will take.

They usually are drawn towards areas of low pressure.

Have seen 'em make u-turns in the Gulf of Mexico.

bajajudy - 8-22-2007 at 03:38 PM

You know I think that I have too much information. I must have 25 sites to check for hurricane info. I just saw that model with the storm making it over the mountains this morning.
I guess we will just have to wait and see...vamos a ver pronto.

woody with a view - 8-22-2007 at 03:44 PM

just like everything else, it's a 50-50 chance. it will or it won't.....