BajaNomad

weather underground site

woody with a view - 8-22-2008 at 08:27 AM

does anyone have any opinion :lol: as to which of these computer models is the most accurate, if any? take the next storm coming off mainland. all of the models generally agree on the path but can ANY individual model be counted on at better than 50/50?

[Edited on 8-23-2008 by woody in ob]

ep200897_model.gif - 32kB

rob - 8-22-2008 at 09:03 AM

In 2004 I asked a friend at Berkeley, who was a physicist specializing in meteorology about these models. He said the world of modelling is like American football - each move is taped and analyzed down to the last spasm - it's actually very competitive.

LBAR above is a Hail Mary - chances are it's hopelessly wrong, BUT if it's right, lights will burn late at the other five!

As for 50/50 - if a model can't do better than that on an ongoing basis, it's discarded.

bajajudy - 8-22-2008 at 09:26 AM

Woody
Pretty good explanation for all the models here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_forecast_model



Over the years I always thought that gfdl was the best....it is not on your map for some reason

oxxo - 8-22-2008 at 09:27 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by rob
I asked a friend at Berkeley,


Oh lord, I hope ol' Skeeter-doodle isn't reading this thread!

GO BEARS!

vandenberg - 8-22-2008 at 09:40 AM

Like Judy stated, GFDL has shown the best accuracy in the last few years.

DianaT - 8-22-2008 at 02:53 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by bajajudy
Woody
Pretty good explanation for all the models here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_forecast_model



Over the years I always thought that gfdl was the best....it is not on your map for some reason


And gfdl shows it going right up the SOC---hope the others are correct this time.

Diane

bajajudy - 8-22-2008 at 03:12 PM

What a difference 6 hours can make?

wunder.gif - 31kB

Russ - 8-22-2008 at 03:28 PM

Here's a site that I also follow the weather on. Most may already use it but for those that don't try it out. http://www.eebmike.com/

mtgoat666 - 8-22-2008 at 03:28 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by woody in ob
does anyone have any opinion (:lol:) as to which of these computer models is the most accurate, if any?


I usually look at the National Weather Service eastern pacific hurricane tracking website. They seem to be primary source for hurricane info found at sites like weather underground, and they have text discussion of model outputs, forecats for each storm.

flyfishinPam - 8-22-2008 at 03:38 PM

this system too far north and not developed (its disorganized as hell) (into a TS) yet to worry much about it coming up the SOC. just my opinion after years of observing these things as part of my livlihood. the soc sst's ARE high enough to attract a storm but this thing should have been formed by now for where its positioned if we're to worry at all about this. another scenario, is that it sits at its current position and forms while generating strength then starts to move north, THEN we'll have something to be concerned about.

rains over the baja peninsula are the major contributor to recharge of the aquafers which we are draining due to overdevelopment of the coastal areas, so rain is necessary and planning for these inevitable events should be part of everyone's home/building design and decision as to where to place buildings and protect property.

the gdfl model has been the most accurate since Juliette in september 2001.

k-rico - 8-22-2008 at 03:39 PM

Are the the two models showing a path closest to the west coast doing a 180? I wonder what in nature could cause that?

flyfishinPam - 8-22-2008 at 03:43 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Russ
Here's a site that I also follow the weather on. Most may already use it but for those that don't try it out. http://www.eebmike.com/


he should fix those non functioning links that are taking up more than half of that page. otherwise good consolidation.

here's one I put together for the pubic but mainly I made it for myself:

http://www.bajabigfish.com/quickweather.html

flyfishinPam - 8-22-2008 at 03:44 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by k-rico
Are the the two models showing a path closest to the west coast doing a 180? I wonder what in nature could cause that?


upper level winds and several other things

bajajudy - 8-22-2008 at 04:11 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by k-rico
Are the the two models showing a path closest to the west coast doing a 180? I wonder what in nature could cause that?

much cooler water, too

flyfishinPam - 8-23-2008 at 05:53 AM

what looked pretty ominous this morning since 04:30 on my handheld now looks not so bad on the desktop where i can see moving loop images. the upper level winds will keep this thing out of the soc. the season is just beginning so best stock up and prepare for one now.

Bob and Susan - 8-23-2008 at 06:41 AM

the winds here on the bay were about 70mph last night at 12am...:O:O

i;m glad the boat was out of the water and in the garage:light:

now...this morning...
flatter than flat:no:

nada...

it's going to be HOT today