woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
|
|
weather underground site
does anyone have any opinion  as to which of these computer models is the most
accurate, if any? take the next storm coming off mainland. all of the models generally agree on the path but can ANY individual model be counted on at
better than 50/50?
[Edited on 8-23-2008 by woody in ob]
|
|
|
rob
Senior Nomad
Posts: 509
Registered: 10-19-2004
Location: Pacific Coast, BCS
Member Is Offline
|
|
In 2004 I asked a friend at Berkeley, who was a physicist specializing in meteorology about these models. He said the world of modelling is like
American football - each move is taped and analyzed down to the last spasm - it's actually very competitive.
LBAR above is a Hail Mary - chances are it's hopelessly wrong, BUT if it's right, lights will burn late at the other five!
As for 50/50 - if a model can't do better than that on an ongoing basis, it's discarded.
|
|
|
bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
|
|
Woody
Pretty good explanation for all the models here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_forecast_model
Over the years I always thought that gfdl was the best....it is not on your map for some reason
|
|
|
oxxo
Banned
Posts: 2347
Registered: 5-17-2006
Location: Wherever I am, I'm there
Member Is Offline
Mood: If I was feeling any better, I'd be twins!
|
|
| Quote: | Originally posted by rob
I asked a friend at Berkeley, |
Oh lord, I hope ol' Skeeter-doodle isn't reading this thread!
GO BEARS!
|
|
|
vandenberg
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5118
Registered: 6-21-2005
Location: Nopolo
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
|
|
Like Judy stated, GFDL has shown the best accuracy in the last few years.
|
|
|
DianaT
Select Nomad
Posts: 10020
Registered: 12-17-2004
Member Is Offline
|
|
And gfdl shows it going right up the SOC---hope the others are correct this time.
Diane
|
|
|
bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
|
|
What a difference 6 hours can make?
|
|
|
Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
|
|
Here's a site that I also follow the weather on. Most may already use it but for those that don't try it out. http://www.eebmike.com/
|
|
|
mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 18416
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
Mood: Hot n spicy
|
|
| Quote: | Originally posted by woody in ob
does anyone have any opinion (:lol as to which of these computer models is the
most accurate, if any? |
I usually look at the National Weather Service eastern pacific hurricane tracking website. They seem to be primary source for hurricane info found at
sites like weather underground, and they have text discussion of model outputs, forecats for each storm.
|
|
|
flyfishinPam
Super Nomad
Posts: 1727
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Loreto, BCS
Member Is Offline
Mood: gone fishin'
|
|
this system too far north and not developed (its disorganized as hell) (into a TS) yet to worry much about it coming up the SOC. just my opinion
after years of observing these things as part of my livlihood. the soc sst's ARE high enough to attract a storm but this thing should have been
formed by now for where its positioned if we're to worry at all about this. another scenario, is that it sits at its current position and forms while
generating strength then starts to move north, THEN we'll have something to be concerned about.
rains over the baja peninsula are the major contributor to recharge of the aquafers which we are draining due to overdevelopment of the coastal areas,
so rain is necessary and planning for these inevitable events should be part of everyone's home/building design and decision as to where to place
buildings and protect property.
the gdfl model has been the most accurate since Juliette in september 2001.
|
|
|
k-rico
Super Nomad
Posts: 2079
Registered: 7-10-2008
Location: Playas de Tijuana
Member Is Offline
|
|
Are the the two models showing a path closest to the west coast doing a 180? I wonder what in nature could cause that?
|
|
|
flyfishinPam
Super Nomad
Posts: 1727
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Loreto, BCS
Member Is Offline
Mood: gone fishin'
|
|
| Quote: | Originally posted by Russ
Here's a site that I also follow the weather on. Most may already use it but for those that don't try it out. http://www.eebmike.com/ |
he should fix those non functioning links that are taking up more than half of that page. otherwise good consolidation.
here's one I put together for the pubic but mainly I made it for myself:
http://www.bajabigfish.com/quickweather.html
|
|
|
flyfishinPam
Super Nomad
Posts: 1727
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Loreto, BCS
Member Is Offline
Mood: gone fishin'
|
|
| Quote: | Originally posted by k-rico
Are the the two models showing a path closest to the west coast doing a 180? I wonder what in nature could cause that? |
upper level winds and several other things
|
|
|
bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
|
|
| Quote: | Originally posted by k-rico
Are the the two models showing a path closest to the west coast doing a 180? I wonder what in nature could cause that? |
much cooler water, too
|
|
|
flyfishinPam
Super Nomad
Posts: 1727
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Loreto, BCS
Member Is Offline
Mood: gone fishin'
|
|
what looked pretty ominous this morning since 04:30 on my handheld now looks not so bad on the desktop where i can see moving loop images. the upper
level winds will keep this thing out of the soc. the season is just beginning so best stock up and prepare for one now.
|
|
|
Bob and Susan
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8813
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Mulege BCS on the BAY
Member Is Offline
Mood: Full Time Residents
|
|
the winds here on the bay were about 70mph last night at 12am...
i;m glad the boat was out of the water and in the garage
now...this morning...
flatter than flat
nada...
it's going to be HOT today
|
|
|
![[*]](images/xmbforum/default_icon.gif){kind=icon}
