Ken Cooke - 6-21-2009 at 09:59 PM
rpleger - 6-21-2009 at 10:21 PM
And so it begins...
Bajahowodd - 6-21-2009 at 11:35 PM
Cabo must have a bullseye courtesy of mother nature. Duck and cover.
bajajudy - 6-22-2009 at 06:54 AM
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220834
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2009
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...WITH
SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF
THE TROPICAL STORM. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THIS IS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT WITH A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO WHICH
SHOWED AT LEAST ONE BELIEVABLE WIND VECTOR IN THE 40 TO 45 KT
RANGE. ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS...HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL PROJECTS 20 TO 25
KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS
OUTPUT SHOWS THAT THIS DIRECTION OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR IS
LESS UNFAVORABLE THAN SHEAR FROM SOME OTHER DIRECTIONS. GIVEN THIS
AND OTHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SUCH AS ABUNDANT LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY...BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM PREDICT THAT ANDRES WILL BECOME
A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASINGLY LESS CONDUCIVE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.
INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/3 AS THE CENTER IS
DIFFICULT TO TRACK USING NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGES. THE TRACK
FORECAST CONTINUES TO PRESENT A CHALLENGE. MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW ANDRES MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO. THIS MOTION WOULD APPARENTLY BE THE RESULT OF ANDRES
ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE
WITHIN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED. HOWEVER THE DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS
ALSO SHOW PRONOUNCED MID- TO UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER
MEXICO...WHICH WOULD TEND TO DRIVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK...OR AT LEAST PARALLEL TO THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT
STILL LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN 4 TO 5 DAYS IT
IS LIKELY THAT ANDRES WILL BE A WEAKENING SYSTEM BEING STEERED
MAINLY BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK STILL DOES NOT EXPLICITLY
INDICATE LANDFALL...IT IS NONETHELESS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST SO
THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 15.0N 102.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 15.6N 102.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 16.5N 103.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 17.6N 104.1W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 19.0N 105.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 21.0N 108.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 21.5N 117.0W 25 KT
Andres
bajajudy - 6-22-2009 at 06:57 AM
JESSE - 6-22-2009 at 09:05 AM
Drug wars
International recession
Swine flu
All we need is a Hurricane to make this officially, Baja´s worst year ever.
bajajudy - 6-22-2009 at 09:08 AM
Mash your mouth, Jesse!
But you are so right.
I dont see anything right now that would indicate that it will be a hurricane by the time it gets here but...............
bajajudy - 6-22-2009 at 09:20 AM
If you like to have someone tell you the weather, try this:
http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?clip=6584...
BajaGeoff - 6-22-2009 at 10:55 AM
Dear Andres,
Please stay away from the coast if you become a hurricane, and send some swell our way if possible. If you really want to make landfall, please do so
as a mild storm with light winds.....and a little rain might be nice too.
Your friend,
BajaGeoff
Bajahowodd - 6-22-2009 at 11:06 AM
Based upon the last graphic posted by Judy, Andres would appear to actually make it to hurricane strength before weakening. Last I checked my
calendar, it's still June. Very early for any storms of devastating strength.
vandenberg - 6-22-2009 at 02:59 PM
Water still way too cold for hurricane development this far north.
flyfishinPam - 6-22-2009 at 03:07 PM
JUst ask the fish-
the Dorado bite slowed down yesterday and today was difficult at best. when systems change and pressure changes even slightly these sensitive fish
will feel it and their loss of appetite is indicative of a weather change. I never looked at the sat yesterday or today I just knew it because of the
behaviour of the dorado, now we have a TS. I think this will be an interesting year in the storm department.
aldosalato - 6-22-2009 at 03:54 PM
too early in the season, fresh waters around Baja and nice fresh Coroumel wind in La Paz.
Andres will probably go west soon or die early going North
wakemall - 6-22-2009 at 06:51 PM
Pam,
Thanks for the fishing report. U2U me if you need me to bring something down again? We will in Loreto on July 5th.
Thanks
Bob H - 6-23-2009 at 08:04 AM
Looks like this one is still projected to brush by the Southern tip of Baja Thursday morning!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/145022.sh...
Hang on to your hat!
Bob H
woody with a view - 6-23-2009 at 08:57 AM
the east cape is gonna be EPIC!!!!!
HOORAY FOR NO LA NINA
Sharksbaja - 6-23-2009 at 10:17 AM
Looks like the prediction is right. Storms will track out to sea this season. (please god, if you're listening) 
Another View
LaTijereta - 6-23-2009 at 02:54 PM
Link to Unisys Tracking..
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2009/index.htm...
hurricane andres
bajajudy - 6-23-2009 at 02:54 PM
Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on June 23, 2009
despite the relative lack of deep convection...the SFMR on the
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured peak surface
winds of 63 kt and 67 kt to the southeast and west of the center...
respectively. Although the 700 mb flight-level winds have been
somewhat less...two dropsondes released east of the center also
measured roughly 65 kt surface winds...which support the SFMR
measurements. Based on these observations Andres is being upgraded
to a hurricane and it was possibly even a little stronger this
morning. The intensity guidance suggests that Andres will not
strengthen any more. The official intensity forecast calls for
slight weakening during the next 12 hours...followed by more steady
weakening as the system moves over cooler waters and into a more
stable air mass in 36-48 hours.
The initial motion estimate is 310/11. Most of the dynamical models
show enough land interaction that they dissipate the cyclone within
12-24 hours. The official forecast continues to keep the center
just off the coast and assumes that Andres will turn more
west-northwestward as a ridge builds westward. The new NHC forecast
is a little slower than the previous forecast. The updated
forecast is close the model consensus through 12-24 hours...then
follows a blend of the HWRF and BAMM...and BAMS thereafter.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 23/2100z 18.6n 105.2w 65 kt
12hr VT 24/0600z 19.9n 106.4w 60 kt
24hr VT 24/1800z 20.9n 107.6w 50 kt
36hr VT 25/0600z 21.7n 109.0w 40 kt
48hr VT 25/1800z 22.4n 110.6w 30 kt
72hr VT 26/1800z 23.2n 113.0w 25 kt...remnant low
96hr VT 27/1800z 23.5n 115.0w 20 kt...remnant low
120hr VT 28/1800z...dissipated
[Edited on 6-23-2009 by bajajudy]
woody with a view - 6-23-2009 at 03:03 PM
hey Judy
can you take some fotos of surf?
I like these models
bajajudy - 6-23-2009 at 03:05 PM
Yes Woody if it is worth the effort, I will take some photos of the sand bar in front of the estero.
just to make you drool into your keyboard
[Edited on 6-23-2009 by bajajudy]
bajajudy - 6-24-2009 at 09:13 AM
Se fue
Adios Andres
We probably wont even get any rain.
Not much in the surf department either.
Hasta la Vista
bajajudy - 6-24-2009 at 09:15 AM
rpleger - 6-24-2009 at 09:17 AM
Thanks for all the updates Judy....It all helps...
[Edited on 6-24-2009 by rpleger]
Bajahowodd - 6-24-2009 at 03:07 PM
I still think that it could be portentious that this storm, so early in the season, achieved hurricane strength. Not wanting anything bad. Hope it
means nothing as far as the season goes.
Russ - 6-24-2009 at 04:53 PM
Water is crazy here! maybe only a 3' sea on shore and 20mph E wind and I think the swell's trying to come in from the S. so it's really churned up
here. How is it where you are? Surfers must be jazzed.
DianaT - 6-24-2009 at 05:27 PM
Difficult to believe that time of year is here again----sure hope there are no BIG storms this year!