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Ken Cooke
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8964
Registered: 2-9-2004
Location: Riverside, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: Pole Line Road postponed due to injury
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Water for the desert cactii!
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rpleger
Super Nomad
Posts: 1087
Registered: 3-12-2005
Location: H. Mulegé, BCS
Member Is Offline
Mood: Was good.
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And so it begins...
Richard on the Hill
*ABROAD*, adj. At war with savages and idiots. To be a Frenchman abroad is to
be miserable; to be an American abroad is to make others miserable.
-- Ambrose Bierce, _The Enlarged Devil\'s Dictionary_
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Bajahowodd
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9274
Registered: 12-15-2008
Location: Disneyland Adjacent and anywhere in Baja
Member Is Offline
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Cabo must have a bullseye courtesy of mother nature. Duck and cover.
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220834
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2009
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...WITH
SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF
THE TROPICAL STORM. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THIS IS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT WITH A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO WHICH
SHOWED AT LEAST ONE BELIEVABLE WIND VECTOR IN THE 40 TO 45 KT
RANGE. ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS...HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL PROJECTS 20 TO 25
KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS
OUTPUT SHOWS THAT THIS DIRECTION OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR IS
LESS UNFAVORABLE THAN SHEAR FROM SOME OTHER DIRECTIONS. GIVEN THIS
AND OTHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SUCH AS ABUNDANT LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY...BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM PREDICT THAT ANDRES WILL BECOME
A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASINGLY LESS CONDUCIVE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.
INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/3 AS THE CENTER IS
DIFFICULT TO TRACK USING NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGES. THE TRACK
FORECAST CONTINUES TO PRESENT A CHALLENGE. MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW ANDRES MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO. THIS MOTION WOULD APPARENTLY BE THE RESULT OF ANDRES
ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE
WITHIN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED. HOWEVER THE DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS
ALSO SHOW PRONOUNCED MID- TO UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER
MEXICO...WHICH WOULD TEND TO DRIVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK...OR AT LEAST PARALLEL TO THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT
STILL LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN 4 TO 5 DAYS IT
IS LIKELY THAT ANDRES WILL BE A WEAKENING SYSTEM BEING STEERED
MAINLY BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK STILL DOES NOT EXPLICITLY
INDICATE LANDFALL...IT IS NONETHELESS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST SO
THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 15.0N 102.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 15.6N 102.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 16.5N 103.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 17.6N 104.1W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 19.0N 105.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 21.0N 108.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 21.5N 117.0W 25 KT
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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Andres
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JESSE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3370
Registered: 11-5-2002
Member Is Offline
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Drug wars
International recession
Swine flu
All we need is a Hurricane to make this officially, Baja´s worst year ever.
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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Mash your mouth, Jesse!
But you are so right.
I dont see anything right now that would indicate that it will be a hurricane by the time it gets here but...............
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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If you like to have someone tell you the weather, try this:
http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?clip=6584...
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BajaGeoff
Super Nomad
Posts: 1727
Registered: 1-11-2006
Location: San Diego and Campo Lopez
Member Is Offline
Mood: Heading To Baja!!!
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Dear Andres,
Please stay away from the coast if you become a hurricane, and send some swell our way if possible. If you really want to make landfall, please do so
as a mild storm with light winds.....and a little rain might be nice too.
Your friend,
BajaGeoff
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Bajahowodd
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9274
Registered: 12-15-2008
Location: Disneyland Adjacent and anywhere in Baja
Member Is Offline
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Based upon the last graphic posted by Judy, Andres would appear to actually make it to hurricane strength before weakening. Last I checked my
calendar, it's still June. Very early for any storms of devastating strength.
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vandenberg
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5118
Registered: 6-21-2005
Location: Nopolo
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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Water still way too cold for hurricane development this far north.
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flyfishinPam
Super Nomad
Posts: 1727
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Loreto, BCS
Member Is Offline
Mood: gone fishin'
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JUst ask the fish-
the Dorado bite slowed down yesterday and today was difficult at best. when systems change and pressure changes even slightly these sensitive fish
will feel it and their loss of appetite is indicative of a weather change. I never looked at the sat yesterday or today I just knew it because of the
behaviour of the dorado, now we have a TS. I think this will be an interesting year in the storm department.
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aldosalato
Nomad
Posts: 183
Registered: 10-20-2002
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
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too early in the season, fresh waters around Baja and nice fresh Coroumel wind in La Paz.
Andres will probably go west soon or die early going North
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wakemall
Nomad
Posts: 183
Registered: 7-17-2006
Member Is Offline
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Pam,
Thanks for the fishing report. U2U me if you need me to bring something down again? We will in Loreto on July 5th.
Thanks
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Bob H
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5867
Registered: 8-19-2003
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
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Looks like this one is still projected to brush by the Southern tip of Baja Thursday morning!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/145022.sh...
Hang on to your hat!
Bob H
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15940
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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the east cape is gonna be EPIC!!!!!
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Sharksbaja
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5814
Registered: 9-7-2004
Location: Newport, Mulege B.C.S.
Member Is Offline
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HOORAY FOR NO LA NINA
Looks like the prediction is right. Storms will track out to sea this season. (please god, if you're listening) 
DON\'T SQUINT! Give yer eyes a break!
Try holding down [control] key and toggle the [+ and -] keys
Viva Mulege!
Nomads\' Sunsets
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LaTijereta
Super Nomad
Posts: 1192
Registered: 8-27-2003
Location: Loreto
Member Is Offline
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Another View
Link to Unisys Tracking..
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2009/index.htm...
Democracy is like two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote.
Ben Franklin (1759)
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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hurricane andres
Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on June 23, 2009
despite the relative lack of deep convection...the SFMR on the
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured peak surface
winds of 63 kt and 67 kt to the southeast and west of the center...
respectively. Although the 700 mb flight-level winds have been
somewhat less...two dropsondes released east of the center also
measured roughly 65 kt surface winds...which support the SFMR
measurements. Based on these observations Andres is being upgraded
to a hurricane and it was possibly even a little stronger this
morning. The intensity guidance suggests that Andres will not
strengthen any more. The official intensity forecast calls for
slight weakening during the next 12 hours...followed by more steady
weakening as the system moves over cooler waters and into a more
stable air mass in 36-48 hours.
The initial motion estimate is 310/11. Most of the dynamical models
show enough land interaction that they dissipate the cyclone within
12-24 hours. The official forecast continues to keep the center
just off the coast and assumes that Andres will turn more
west-northwestward as a ridge builds westward. The new NHC forecast
is a little slower than the previous forecast. The updated
forecast is close the model consensus through 12-24 hours...then
follows a blend of the HWRF and BAMM...and BAMS thereafter.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 23/2100z 18.6n 105.2w 65 kt
12hr VT 24/0600z 19.9n 106.4w 60 kt
24hr VT 24/1800z 20.9n 107.6w 50 kt
36hr VT 25/0600z 21.7n 109.0w 40 kt
48hr VT 25/1800z 22.4n 110.6w 30 kt
72hr VT 26/1800z 23.2n 113.0w 25 kt...remnant low
96hr VT 27/1800z 23.5n 115.0w 20 kt...remnant low
120hr VT 28/1800z...dissipated
[Edited on 6-23-2009 by bajajudy]
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15940
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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hey Judy
can you take some fotos of surf?
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