BajaNomad - LOOK OUT BELOW!

LOOK OUT BELOW!

woody with a view - 10-14-2009 at 04:37 PM

watch the next storm coming up from the mainland!

i hope not, but it looks like a big one gonna come knocking.....

just s friendly heads up!

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
NNNN

[Edited on 10-14-2009 by woody in ob]

Attachment: gtwo_epac.shtml (21kB)
This file has been downloaded 1167 times

Keri - 10-14-2009 at 04:41 PM

Woody, I can't open that link. Is there another way to get there . I'm going on a cruise Oct 26 thru Nov 2 and I'd like to see if I'm going to be in for trouble,k :?:

landyacht318 - 10-14-2009 at 05:36 PM

This is an animation of predicted wave heights up to 144 hours in the future. You can see in the last couple frames, that something pretty big is supposed to start brewing.

http://www.lajollasurf.org/images/pacanimne.gif

This kind of 5 to 7 day forecast always seems to make the storms bigger than they usually turn out to be.
Don't start stressing yet.

The possible storm moves into the frame around the 84 hour mark.

[Edited on 10-15-2009 by landyacht318]

[Edited on 10-15-2009 by landyacht318]

[Edited on 10-15-2009 by landyacht318]

DENNIS - 10-14-2009 at 05:47 PM

Doesn't look like anything out there.

Turn on the clouds, center right

http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific

BajaWarrior - 10-14-2009 at 05:55 PM

[Edited on 10-15-2009 by BajaWarrior]

comitan - 10-14-2009 at 05:57 PM

Well just got back from our walk, La Paz Bay was all witecaps from a north wind. I don't think we will have anymore bad weather. :light:

BFS - 10-14-2009 at 06:39 PM

no wonder its still so hot around here.

woody with a view - 10-15-2009 at 12:55 PM

Keri

besides whatever damage to the port(s), the storm should be long gone by then....

RICK

Dianamo - 10-16-2009 at 05:42 AM

"TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009

RICK CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY......"

looks like most projections have it going west...

Beachgirl - 10-16-2009 at 06:32 AM

Ugh, don't know whether to keep cleaning after Jimena, or bag everything and rent a room at high ground! Sure hope this one just doesn't get to Mulege. We've had just about enough here in our little town.

toneart - 10-16-2009 at 07:29 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Beachgirl
Ugh, don't know whether to keep cleaning after Jimena, or bag everything and rent a room at high ground! Sure hope this one just doesn't get to Mulege. We've had just about enough here in our little town.

What to do? What to do? I was leaving tomorrow for Mulege with caravan of other people. This one looks like a monster with the same intensity and track as Jimena. Hope I'm wrong. I'm thinking we have to delay our trip until it passes. :?:

BooJumMan - 10-16-2009 at 07:46 AM

Already a hurricane, predicted to be a major hurricane quickly. Wow...

DianaT - 10-16-2009 at 08:17 AM

Three out of the five computer models show Rick going west---let's hope the other two are wrong.

Of course it seems that these models change quickly.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200920_model...

DENNIS - 10-16-2009 at 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Dianamo

looks like most projections have it going west...

At least untill Monday or Tuesday. Then....
--------

Turn on the clouds.... middle,right

http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific

eguillermo - 10-16-2009 at 08:20 AM

Hm . . . I have the ability to cancel a flight to SJD tonight and postpone my trip for a week. The expense is a bit, but it would be worth it if the storm has passed by come next Saturday and I can kayak fish in peace . . .

I've never been through a tropical storm, so if I'm asking a rather obvious question, forgive me, but: should I postpone my trip? Will the storm pass through this week and then thing be cool by next Saturday?

This is tough because I have really been anticipating this trip . . . but better later than wetter, perphaps.

DENNIS - 10-16-2009 at 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by eguillermo
Will the storm pass through this week and then thing be cool by next Saturday?

From the projection, it looks like it will be up around Cabo by Friday. You may not be able to get out on schedule.
I say go for it. It'll give you something to talk about for years to come.

comitan - 10-16-2009 at 08:45 AM

Nobody but nobody can predict what these storms are going to do, it has shown this to be the case this year more than most. That includes Hurricane Center. Anything you do will be a gamble!!!!!!!!!

mulegejim - 10-16-2009 at 08:45 AM

I was going to leave for Mulege on Sunday, however, looks as though I'll wait and see how things shape up.

eguillermo - 10-16-2009 at 09:01 AM

Yep, I think I'm going to gamble on going. Better to have gambled and lost than never to have gambled at all?

I'll try to get in as much fishing as possible, but otherwise will take along my hiking shoes and a positive attitude.

DENNIS - 10-16-2009 at 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by eguillermo
Yep, I think I'm going to gamble on going. Better to have gambled and lost than never to have gambled at all?

I'll try to get in as much fishing as possible, but otherwise will take along my hiking shoes and a positive attitude.

That's a good Baja attitude if ever I heard one. Have a great trip.

vandenberg - 10-16-2009 at 10:28 AM

eguillermo,

Come on doooowwwwnnnn.!!! :biggrin:

eguillermo - 10-16-2009 at 02:29 PM

I hope that is not the sound of vandenberg being blown away in the rising wind . . .

But seriously, how long will a storm like this keep things out of sorts? La Paz weather forecasts actually show pretty low winds right up to Wednesday, after which they forecast that it will really open up and blow 30 - 40 m.p.h.

But the forecast only goes to Friday. Would you tend to expect it to fizzle out and return to normal wind patterns by Sunday, Monday? A whole week after it started blowing up?

I'm still wondering if the hurricane could render a whole week of my two-week vacation unfishable . . . . :no:

comitan - 10-16-2009 at 02:33 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

This in case you do not have the data we have.

Or this"

http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific

Maybe this would be more help.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200920_5day....

[Edited on 10-16-2009 by comitan]

[Edited on 10-16-2009 by comitan]

Sharksbaja - 10-16-2009 at 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by eguillermo
I hope that is not the sound of vandenberg being blown away in the rising wind . . .

Not to be a smartass but, have you ever heard of Hurricane John or Tropical Storm Julio or Hurricane Jimena?

We are talking weeks or months of recovery. If you do choose to be down there during a strong storm be cautious and wise. As with those aforementioned storms, the storm tracks cannot be considered reliable so don't make plans based on those.

toneart - 10-16-2009 at 03:36 PM

After Jimena...Sept. 2, all hotels but one, Hotel Mulege, were flooded. If you are there and this one, "Rick" comes through there will be no hotel rooms available. People I have talked to who are there now have all reserved rooms for this blessed event already. If this is like Jimena, which I sincerely hope it isn't, there will be no food, water, electricity, no atms, bridges knocked out, etc. It is NOT the place to be during a hurricane or after, for that matter.

Then again, it may track west and spare us all, and we will feel foolishly very dry. :rolleyes:

If I cancel my trip until Rick passes, and nothing comes of it, I will invoke the wagging index finger and looks of consternation from the memory of my late mother. I will do this>>

and say, "See, I told you so!" "You worried for nothing!" :mad:

eguillermo - 10-16-2009 at 04:54 PM

Not at all sharks, that's the kind of smartass comments that can be helpful. I like to travel self-contained, with a kayak and tent. With my truck and open-ended time I might feel a little more secure about bad weather, but this time (for the first time) I'm renting a car and will only have two weeks.

The safer course would probably be a wait-and-see for a week . . . it sucks, but now I'm seriously considering it. The no-motel, everything-out-of-order scenario sounds quite realistic.

BooJumMan - 10-17-2009 at 09:19 AM

This Rick guy... He sure seems like he means business. Looking very strong right now, maybe he'll just peak early though and get pulled off into the Pacific.. I HOPE.

toneart - 10-17-2009 at 09:28 AM

I and my traveling companions are certainly taking Rick seriously! We are delaying our trip until it passes and we get confirmation of the conditions on the ground in Mulege. :!:

vandenberg - 10-17-2009 at 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by toneart
I and my traveling companions are certainly taking Rick seriously! We are delaying our trip until it passes and we get confirmation of the conditions on the ground in Mulege. :!:

Smart move Tony. Let's hope they got the predicted landfall strength right at least.

hurricane Rick 10-17.gif - 36kB

toneart - 10-17-2009 at 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by vandenberg

Quote:

Smart move Tony. Let's hope they got the predicted landfall strength right at least.

Huh? "predicted landfall strength" is Cat 2 or 1. That' good? By the time it hits SOC it is still Cat 1...NOT good!

We'll see what happens. We are all weary from these hurricanes and cleanup. If this one is as predicted, coming on top of Jimena, it would probably be the coup de grace for those of us that still have badly damaged houses, but still standing.

This would put more financial strain on the Municipalities too, not to mention the hardship on the locals. Mulege is broke. Last spring, the Delegado was shut down because they couldn't pay the electricity bill. At the same time, the office that collects our property taxes couldn't, for the same reason. They are in the same building. Two months later they finally got the lights back on and then they were able to accept our tax payments.

Now they are trying to do the best they can for us, as tax payers, but there simply is no money.

OHMYGAWD!

Sharksbaja - 10-17-2009 at 02:52 PM

Eyewall forrmation

DianaT - 10-17-2009 at 03:26 PM

Right now, it does not look good for south of here----still hoping that the UKMET computer model wins.

mulegemichael - 10-17-2009 at 03:34 PM

yeah, the delgado yesterday, or day before, asked that for anyone who could, please pay your taxes in advance as they are BROKE right now....so...that's kinda where we are right now...no police services, (no gas), no garbage services, ( the garbage truck is broken), and the town is barely able to pay it's electric bill...what to do?...crack another pacifico and hope for the best.....

Bajahowodd - 10-17-2009 at 03:42 PM

Certainly the category number is imporant. But please remember that number is based on sustained wind strength. Even a tropical storm may contain immense amounts of rain. Just ask the folks in Sonora what a deluge can do couretsy of Jimena. Not to mention Mulege.

mulegemichael - 10-17-2009 at 06:42 PM

NO...i think it's important that we DO mention mulege!...this little town is flattened...no resources, no money, very few houses intact...still scratching to find itself...they are doing the best they can with what they have available

woody with a view - 10-18-2009 at 06:53 AM

180MPH? WOW!!!! it is such a beautiful thing. too bad it brings so much destruction. hopefully the word is getting out and everyone can take refuge in time. still have a few days to prepare.

good luck folks! :saint:

toneart - 10-18-2009 at 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by mulegemichael
NO...i think it's important that we DO mention mulege!...this little town is flattened...no resources, no money, very few houses intact...still scratching to find itself...they are doing the best they can with what they have available

Michael,

I think what Howard was saying, "not to mention Mulege" was an expression following the damage water can do in Sonora, meaning...Mulege too. He is saying Mulege also has suffered lots of damage from the water, as you too are pointing out. You also used the word "flattened" which alludes to the hurricane winds which really compounded Mulege's flood damage with Jimena.

I was headed down this weekend but am holding off until we see that Mulege is spared. Right now it looks like it is tracking further south (Cabo), but it could still carry a lot of water. Stock up on Pacificos, Michael, and save one for me if we are spared. Any celebration will be muted, of course, when we think of our neighbors to the south of us.

To those to the south, stay safe and prepare well. We are thinking of you.

woody with a view - 10-18-2009 at 03:50 PM

Toneart

i agree with your assertation about the Mulege comment.... Mulege can use a break.... good luck amigos!

it seems the GFDL is creeping ever so slightly to the south. if it holds true, at least the strongest part of this storm will stay offshore until it slams the mainland.

mulegemichael - 10-18-2009 at 04:36 PM

el pacificos es frio..muchco!

mulegemichael - 10-18-2009 at 04:37 PM

oh sorry, "mucho"...y mucho mas!

woody with a view - 10-18-2009 at 05:21 PM

siento por que?

good times ahead folks! 'tis darkest before the light!!!!

eguillermo - 10-19-2009 at 11:59 AM

As someone said, only nobody can predict what these storms are actually going to do . . . but obsessive attention to the reports and re-adjusted forecasts through the weekend do suggest that the storm's landfall on Baja is not going to be a worst-case scenario.

Not sure that comes as "great" news to folks living down there, and it certainly doesn't help the fisherman who got drowned nor the people on Isla Socorro who are dealing with some category 3 winds. Sounds like the big Bisbees tourney is still going to try and fish on Friday, and I'll be interested to hear how that goes.

This has all been a big and interesting education for me on hurricanes and tropical storms, and I really thank both the folks who warned me how bad it could get, and also the folks who figured flying down on Saturday would be a gamble but not necessarily a bad one. Both seem to be right! And I am rescheduled at minimal cost, with cancellation insurance of course, for *this* Saturday :yes: