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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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LOOK OUT BELOW!
watch the next storm coming up from the mainland!
i hope not, but it looks like a big one gonna come knocking.....
just s friendly heads up!
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
NNNN
[Edited on 10-14-2009 by woody in ob]
Attachment: gtwo_epac.shtml (21kB)
This file has been downloaded 1167 times
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Keri
Super Nomad
Posts: 1393
Registered: 10-31-2002
Location: La Mision, Baja Norte
Member Is Offline
Mood: muy contento
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Woody, I can't open that link. Is there another way to get there . I'm going on a cruise Oct 26 thru Nov 2 and I'd like to see if I'm going to be in
for trouble,k
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landyacht318
Nomad
Posts: 247
Registered: 7-28-2007
Member Is Offline
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This is an animation of predicted wave heights up to 144 hours in the future. You can see in the last couple frames, that something pretty big is
supposed to start brewing.
http://www.lajollasurf.org/images/pacanimne.gif
This kind of 5 to 7 day forecast always seems to make the storms bigger than they usually turn out to be.
Don't start stressing yet.
The possible storm moves into the frame around the 84 hour mark.
[Edited on 10-15-2009 by landyacht318]
[Edited on 10-15-2009 by landyacht318]
[Edited on 10-15-2009 by landyacht318]
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
Member Is Offline
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Doesn't look like anything out there.
Turn on the clouds, center right
http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific
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BajaWarrior
Super Nomad
Posts: 2307
Registered: 9-27-2006
Location: Mission Bay, San Diego. Playa Hermosa, San Felipe.
Member Is Offline
Mood: Anxious to get south
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[Edited on 10-15-2009 by BajaWarrior]
Haven't had a bad trip yet....
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4177
Registered: 3-27-2004
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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Well just got back from our walk, La Paz Bay was all witecaps from a north wind. I don't think we will have anymore bad weather.
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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BFS
Senior Nomad
Posts: 520
Registered: 9-28-2006
Location: Todos Santos
Member Is Offline
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no wonder its still so hot around here.
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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Keri
besides whatever damage to the port(s), the storm should be long gone by then....
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Dianamo
Nomad
Posts: 182
Registered: 12-27-2005
Location: SF Bay Area, CA when not in El Cardonal
Member Is Offline
Mood: ...still in Baja
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RICK
"TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009
RICK CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY......"
looks like most projections have it going west...
Minds are like parachutes...they only function when open!
\"The price of apathy is to be ruled by evil men.\" - Plato
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Beachgirl
Nomad
Posts: 206
Registered: 1-1-2008
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Ugh, don't know whether to keep cleaning after Jimena, or bag everything and rent a room at high ground! Sure hope this one just doesn't get to
Mulege. We've had just about enough here in our little town.
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toneart
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4901
Registered: 7-23-2006
Member Is Offline
Mood: Skeptical
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Beachgirl
Ugh, don't know whether to keep cleaning after Jimena, or bag everything and rent a room at high ground! Sure hope this one just doesn't get to
Mulege. We've had just about enough here in our little town. |
What to do? What to do? I was leaving tomorrow for Mulege with caravan of other people. This one looks like a monster with the same intensity and
track as Jimena. Hope I'm wrong. I'm thinking we have to delay our trip until it passes. 
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BooJumMan
Senior Nomad
Posts: 919
Registered: 8-11-2007
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
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Already a hurricane, predicted to be a major hurricane quickly. Wow...
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DianaT
Select Nomad
Posts: 10020
Registered: 12-17-2004
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Three out of the five computer models show Rick going west---let's hope the other two are wrong.
Of course it seems that these models change quickly.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200920_model...
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Dianamo
looks like most projections have it going west... |
At least untill Monday or Tuesday. Then....
--------
Turn on the clouds.... middle,right
http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific
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eguillermo
Nomad
Posts: 113
Registered: 10-10-2008
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Hm . . . I have the ability to cancel a flight to SJD tonight and postpone my trip for a week. The expense is a bit, but it would be worth it if the
storm has passed by come next Saturday and I can kayak fish in peace . . .
I've never been through a tropical storm, so if I'm asking a rather obvious question, forgive me, but: should I postpone my trip? Will the storm pass
through this week and then thing be cool by next Saturday?
This is tough because I have really been anticipating this trip . . . but better later than wetter, perphaps.
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by eguillermo
Will the storm pass through this week and then thing be cool by next Saturday?
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From the projection, it looks like it will be up around Cabo by Friday. You may not be able to get out on schedule.
I say go for it. It'll give you something to talk about for years to come.
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4177
Registered: 3-27-2004
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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Nobody but nobody can predict what these storms are going to do, it has shown this to be the case this year more than most. That includes Hurricane
Center. Anything you do will be a gamble!!!!!!!!!
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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mulegejim
Nomad
Posts: 470
Registered: 9-4-2006
Location: San Clemente, CA/Mulege, BCS
Member Is Offline
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I was going to leave for Mulege on Sunday, however, looks as though I'll wait and see how things shape up.
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eguillermo
Nomad
Posts: 113
Registered: 10-10-2008
Member Is Offline
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Yep, I think I'm going to gamble on going. Better to have gambled and lost than never to have gambled at all?
I'll try to get in as much fishing as possible, but otherwise will take along my hiking shoes and a positive attitude. 
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by eguillermo
Yep, I think I'm going to gamble on going. Better to have gambled and lost than never to have gambled at all?
I'll try to get in as much fishing as possible, but otherwise will take along my hiking shoes and a positive attitude. |
That's a good Baja attitude if ever I heard one. Have a great trip.
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