BajaNomad - Great SF Chronicle article on tourist safety in Mexico

Great SF Chronicle article on tourist safety in Mexico

CasaManzana - 8-28-2011 at 09:05 PM

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/08/21/...
(edit...looks like you will have to copy and paste to get this)

[Edited on 8-29-2011 by CasaManzana]

[Edited on 8-29-2011 by BajaNomad]

"Great" article? Sorry I'm not in that camp...

Mexray - 8-29-2011 at 12:08 PM

...Casa, It seems to me that the 'left' leaning SF Chronicle is playing with the statistics to mask the atrocities currently being suffered by Mexican bystanders...

Using the Mexican 'deaths per 100,000 population and comparing to Washington DC is a joke! The DF Mexico City is the largest concentration of people in the world, and hardly compares with the few 100,000 people in Washington DC city limits!

Let's have the raw numbers of murders to compare - then make your own conclusions...

How many 'innocents' or 'bystanders' have been killed in both areas?

I know the 'bad' press is killing the Mexican tourist industry, but you'd have to have your head in the sand to ignore completely the amount of violence below the border, and not factor it into any plans to visit some parts of Mexico!

Woooosh - 8-29-2011 at 08:44 PM

I dunno. imho this article says portions of Mexico are safe for tourism, but they also said Baja California Norte was not among them.

"And while parts of Mexico can be legitimately likened to a war zone, drug violence afflicts 80 of the country's 2,400 municipalities (equivalent to counties). Their locations have been well publicized: along the U.S. border in northern Baja California,

CortezBlue - 8-30-2011 at 01:41 AM

I did the research on my own.

For 2010 Baja vs AZ murder rate per 100000 people, Baja murder rate per 100000 people was almost half of AZ

Now I am sure that if you broke it down by county TJ and Maricopa county would be a toss up

BTW it was easy to find the numbers through google search

Roberto - 8-30-2011 at 10:57 AM

Could you break those figures down? Because our results seem to differ. What I get (for 2009) is:

Arizona (Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Phoenix, Tucson): 5.2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_cities_by_crime_r...
Baja (Baja California, Baja California Sur): 19
http://www.icesi.org.mx/documentos/estadisticas/estadisticas...

This is murder rate /100000

I am pretty sure that there will be objections to these stats. To anticipate some, icesi is the Instituto Ciudadano de Estudios Sobre la Inseguridad, A.C.

or:

Civic Institute of Studies on Lack of Security (no real translation for Inseguridad)

[Edited on 8-30-2011 by Roberto]

JoeJustJoe - 8-30-2011 at 12:25 PM

Mexray wrote: Let's have the raw numbers of murders to compare - then make your own conclusions... How many 'innocents' or 'bystanders' have been killed in both areas?

Go ahead and get your raw number on the innocents and bystanders that are killed. And don't forget the American tourists too.

The fact the San Francisco article is accurate.

Most of the drug cartel killings are concentrated is certain regions of Mexico, and if you take away the two regions with the highest death toll, and the death toll for the other six or so regions goes way way down.

The fact is most of the drug cartel killings involve the drug cartels fighting each other, or the people killed are involved with the drug cartels or other illegal activities where a lot of money in involved.

Rarely are innocent bystanders targeted that have no connection to the drug cartels at all, although innocent bystanders do get killed at times, but those number aren't high enough to justify telling all American tourists to stay out of Mexico because their very lives are at risk.

In fact killings of American tourists and expats in Mexico not involved in illegal activity is very low. You probably have more of a chance getting killed in a auto accident if you're an American then you do getting killed by a Mexican drug cartel member.
------------------

This is murder rate /100000

Does anybody actually go by the murder rate of 100,000 before deciding which part of Mexico you're going to visit?

" Oh honey look at this. Tourist destination A has a murder rate of 5 per 100,000 but destination B has only a murder of of 4 per 100,000 and so therefore is much safer. Honey, better yet we stay home, because where we live the murder rate is only 3 per every 100,000."

Of course the anti-Mexico "alarmists" just love to use the murder rate of every 100,000 to try to scare tourist away from visiting many safe tourist destinations in Mexico.

Roberto - 8-30-2011 at 12:41 PM

Joe,

There were some statistics cited. My numbers are different. I did not create the 100,000 figure or anything else, I'm just saying my numbers are different and wanted to see where CortezBlue got his.

Don't understand what the X100,000 figure has anything to do with anything - it's just the way these are reported by the government.

Sounds like what you're really saying is that we should try to filter out and disregard the cartel killings?

Dude, I go and work in Tijuana at least twice a week, and have a place quite a bit further south than that, regardless of the statistics. But ignoring reality doesn't change it, nor does listing them make one an alarmist. Trying to cover them up - well, that's another story.

DENNIS - 8-30-2011 at 12:42 PM

What purpose does it serve to compare these figures? They don't mean much standing alone. Perhaps the circumstances would be as, or more relevant. Mass graves and butchering, for instance?
How about ethnicity? I'm starting to wonder if murder is a form of communication for Hispanics.

Roberto - 8-30-2011 at 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS
What purpose does it serve to compare these figures? They don't mean much standing alone. Perhaps the circumstances would be as, or more relevant. Mass graves and butchering, for instance?
How about ethnicity? I'm starting to wonder if murder is a form of communication for Hispanics.

In and of itself, nothing. There are different areas, different situations, different levels of risk. It's information. Do with it what you will.

[Edited on 8-30-2011 by Roberto]

DENNIS - 8-30-2011 at 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto
Probably not much, other than information. What purpose does it serve to pretend that they are other than what they are?

Well..I agree that everything should be laid out on the table for all to see. Hide nothing....include everything. Not just bits and pieces.
That is my point.

durrelllrobert - 8-31-2011 at 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto
Could you break those figures down? Because our results seem to differ. What I get (for 2009) is:

Arizona (Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Phoenix, Tucson): 5.2

This is murder rate /100000

[Edited on 8-30-2011 by Roberto]

Huh?
The murder rates given for the AZ cities cited are per 1000 population and total 0.26. Therefore the rate per 100,000 is 26 not 5.2.
In contrast, the 2009 murders for the entire state of Wyoming (the wild west) was 13 and with a population of 544,270 = 2.39 per 100,000.

[Edited on 9-1-2011 by durrelllrobert]

Attachment: 2009 Az murder.doc (29kB)
This file has been downloaded 348 times

Lobsterman - 8-31-2011 at 01:18 PM

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jan/15/murders-san-d...

http://www.sandiegored.com/noticias/18015/15-people-killed-i...

You can do just about anything with statistics if you know what the answer is that you are trying to convince others is true.

CortezBlue - 8-31-2011 at 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto
Joe,

There were some statistics cited. My numbers are different. I did not create the 100,000 figure or anything else, I'm just saying my numbers are different and wanted to see where CortezBlue got his.

Don't understand what the X100,000 figure has anything to do with anything - it's just the way these are reported by the government.

Sounds like what you're really saying is that we should try to filter out and disregard the cartel killings?

Dude, I go and work in Tijuana at least twice a week, and have a place quite a bit further south than that, regardless of the statistics. But ignoring reality doesn't change it, nor does listing them make one an alarmist. Trying to cover them up - well, that's another story.

Roberto
I am looking back to see if I can find the documentation. I did find one that showed 5.2 per 100000.

I will keep looking to see if I can find it.
Stay Tuned

Roberto - 8-31-2011 at 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by durrelllrobert

Quote:

Huh?
The murder rates given for the AZ cities cited are per 1000 population and total 0.24. Therefore the rate per 100,000 is 24 not 5.2.
In contrast, the 2009 murders for the entire state of Wyoming (the wild west) was 13 and with a population of 544,270 = 2.39 per 100,000.

You're right - when calculating I did not take into account different population counts (oops).

But I dug some more and here are numbers for the entire state (Az and all others).

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/azcrime.htm

According to this murders per 100,000 in AZ for 2009 = 5.4. Interesting is that numbers are down from 7.0 the previous year.

Same as last post: http://www.icesi.org.mx/documentos/estadisticas/estadisticas... still shows:

Baja California: 24
Baja California Sur: 14

thanks for catching that.

[Edited on 9-1-2011 by Roberto]

JESSE - 8-31-2011 at 06:21 PM

This is a ridiculous debate.

Its obvious theres many parts of Mexico that i wouldn't even want to drive tru, much less visit. And its also true that many parts of Mexico like baja sur, are far safer than most cities in the US.

Theres nothing to argue about :rolleyes:

Roberto - 8-31-2011 at 06:54 PM

Thank you for your wisdom, Jesse. Next time I want to talk about something, I'll save myself some time and just ask you if it's worthwhile or not, oh all-knowing one.

BTW, there was no argument. Just a discussion of data.

And when you talk about most cities in the US, just how many have YOU lived in?

As far as "far safer" I'm curious to know how you measure that? If not murders - robbery? burglary? theft?

[Edited on 9-1-2011 by Roberto]

DENNIS - 8-31-2011 at 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto
Anybody ever tell you you're a mean drunk, DENNIS?

Let's not be truncating those big words here, Robby. I know you can handle three sylables without your goomba mindset turning to over-cooked pasta.

It's meaningful.....M-E-A-N-I-N-G-F-U-L.
OK....say the word clearly, spell it, then return to your seat and quietly await your next turn.

JESSE - 8-31-2011 at 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto

And when you talk about most cities in the US, just how many have YOU lived in?

[Edited on 9-1-2011 by Roberto]

New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, Kansas City, and Seattle.

JESSE - 8-31-2011 at 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto

As far as "far safer" I'm curious to know how you measure that? If not murders - robbery? burglary? theft?

[Edited on 9-1-2011 by Roberto]

I measure it by how i can walk downtown at 4am and have no problem in 7yrs, by how i don't lock my doors or windows at night, and by how my neighboors kids move around the neighboorhood with no worries whatsoever. In fact, the only place i have ever felt safer than down here in La Paz, is in one of those middle of nowhere towns population 300, anywhere in Baja.

Baja sur is without a doubt, one of the safest places in northamerica, if not the world.

DENNIS - 8-31-2011 at 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by JESSE
New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, Kansas City, and Seattle.

You should be getting a disability check for having lived in a few of those places.

Roberto - 8-31-2011 at 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by JESSE

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto

As far as "far safer" I'm curious to know how you measure that? If not murders - robbery? burglary? theft?

[Edited on 9-1-2011 by Roberto]

Jesse, I have lived in many places. A small percentage in the U.S., none in Mexico. What I do know, is that the safety of a place is relative - you feel safe walking where you walk, being the person you are, etc. Someone else, two blocks away may be getting robbed while you are walking home.

The fact remains that when you look at the level of crime in Baja Sur, and there aren't that many large population centers in BCS, it's higher than most U.S. States and cities. There must be an explanation to that, don't you think?

What gets my goat is when you step in and make your statement that tries to invalidate the discussion that has occurred to that point.

I have no dog in this race. I don't live in Mexico, nor do I have plans to. I visit often, both the isolated towns you refer to, and the bigger centers like La Paz and Tijuana. But, this is not about me. I feel that many people on this board want to hide reality for whatever reason, be it a desire to justify their move, commercial interests, whatever. Most of these people are from the U.S., by the way. Whatever decision you make, should be made on facts, period.

Thank you for asnwer

Roberto - 8-31-2011 at 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto
Anybody ever tell you you're a mean drunk, DENNIS?

I guess the answer to my question is no?

:lol:

DENNIS I have infinite respect for your service, and I will defend that to my last breath. But you sir, can be a real buttcrack. L'Chaim.

[Edited on 9-1-2011 by Roberto]

JESSE - 8-31-2011 at 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto

Quote:

Originally posted by JESSE

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto

As far as "far safer" I'm curious to know how you measure that? If not murders - robbery? burglary? theft?

[Edited on 9-1-2011 by Roberto]

The fact remains that when you look at the level of crime in Baja Sur, and there aren't that many large population centers in BCS, it's higher than most U.S. States and cities.

Thats simply one of the most ridiculous things i have heard in a while , i am sorry, but you have no clue. :lol:

durrelllrobert - 9-1-2011 at 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto
You're right - when calculating I did not take into account different population counts (oops).

But I dug some more and here are numbers for the entire state (Az and all others).

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/azcrime.htm

According to this murders per 100,000 in AZ for 2009 = 5.4. Interesting is that numbers are down from 7.0 the previous year.

thanks for catching that.

Quit a conflict of data from the link showing rate for whole state of AZ vs previos link showing rate by city which comes out to 26/100,000 for 2009 :?:

:

Attachment: 2009 Az murder.doc (29kB)
This file has been downloaded 330 times

Roberto - 9-1-2011 at 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by JESSE

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto

Quote:

Originally posted by JESSE

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto

As far as "far safer" I'm curious to know how you measure that? If not murders - robbery? burglary? theft?

[Edited on 9-1-2011 by Roberto]

The fact remains that when you look at the level of crime in Baja Sur, and there aren't that many large population centers in BCS, it's higher than most U.S. States and cities.

Thats simply one of the most ridiculous things i have heard in a while , i am sorry, but you have no clue. :lol:

I'm curious: how do you account for the infinite ripoffs (or attempts): cops, car rental agencies, stuff taken from hotels, gas stations, etc. Note that these are not limited to tourists who can afford it, but even the poorest of the poor in mexico get ripped of by their fellow Mexicans.

And do you have an explanation for the statistics I posted? If I were to come to La Paz with my boat (expensive boat) and truck (expensive truck) and leave them parked on the street overnight, what do you think would happen? If you want to compare La Paz to a place like East LA, that's one thing, but I can walk pretty much anywhere in Manhattan at any hour of the day or night, and the worst that will happen is to get hit up for money by homeless people. Come to think about it, if it's late enough, they're probably asleep on some subway grate. Why is it that Mexicans, practically everywhere have grates and iron gates on their doors? So they can keep them open at night?

Anyway, I don't want to enter into a polemic here, so that's pretty much all I have to say. Matter of fact, I just wanted to post alternative stats to those that had been posted.

[Edited on 9-1-2011 by Roberto]

krafty - 9-1-2011 at 02:04 PM

Manhattan? Or you could get hit over the head with a crow bar, robbed and left for dead. Could happen anywhere, anytime of the day or night.

Roberto - 9-1-2011 at 02:07 PM

Krafty - when were you last in Manhattan?

JESSE - 9-1-2011 at 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto

Quote:

Originally posted by JESSE

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto

Quote:

Originally posted by JESSE

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto

As far as "far safer" I'm curious to know how you measure that? If not murders - robbery? burglary? theft?

[Edited on 9-1-2011 by Roberto]

The fact remains that when you look at the level of crime in Baja Sur, and there aren't that many large population centers in BCS, it's higher than most U.S. States and cities.

Thats simply one of the most ridiculous things i have heard in a while , i am sorry, but you have no clue. :lol:

I live in downtown La Paz, theres several B &B's and small hotels around, tourists always coming in and out with their rigs, parking on the street, and never have any problems. The business community here is pretty close, we know everything thats happening in town. One time there was a homeless guy who came from out of town and started to break car windows and steal stuff, in a matter of a week we knew who it was and dealt with it. What i am telling you is fact, not speculation based on who knows what. The situation is pretty much the same in the rest of Baja sur, except for cabo off course and i am sure some towns might have some problems that are out of the ordinary for baja, considering the economic slump we are going tru.

As for the "infinite ripoffs" you mention, what can i say? i don't know where you hang out, or the environment you have around you, but is not a problem at all for me, my friends, or family. If it was, we aould all be talking about it, and last time i checked, most of the people around here still sleep with their windows open in dowtown La Paz, believe it because its true.

JoeJustJoe - 9-1-2011 at 05:34 PM

Quote:

Roberto I really wasn't talking about you, but rather the deaths per 100,000 that could be very misleading especially when working with small numbers. For example the "alarmist" will say one place in Mexico has a death rate of 10 per 100,000 and another place in the US with a death rate of 5 per 100,000 and then say Mexico has a 50 percent higher death rate.

Really 50 percent higher when working with such small numbers of 2, 5, 10, or even 20? I think it could be very misleading especially given the fact 8 out of 10 killed out of 100,000 were involved in the drug trade. These 100,000 statistics are laughable when you use them for large cities like LA, NY, Chicago, San Diego, Phoenix, Mexico city or other large city in Mexico. In every large city there are some very nice safe areas, and there are dangerous ghettos. For example those 100,000 figures could include both Beverly Hills and Compton if they were talking about Los Angeles and really those places are like night and day when talking about safely issues.

Oh another thing I think somebody would have to be a hypocrite to always be sounding the alarm how dangerous Mexico is especially in the border states when they themselves travel to Mexico all the time. Wouldn't you agree Roberto?

A person would have to be pretty foolish to believe just traveling to Mexico puts their or your life at risk, but yet they do it all the time or worst yet they still live in Mexico.

Roberto - 9-1-2011 at 05:49 PM

Joe,

Are the statistics all-revealing? No, of course not. Should they be ignored? I don't think so. You know I think you just made the case that making a statement that Mexico is safer than the US is invalid. Yes, there are safe and dangerous areas in both (all) countries, you are correct there. But the statistics do have SOME meaning, wouldn't you say? I know Mexico reasonably well and used to hitchhike all up and down it in the seventies - don't think I'd do that today. I would say that, on the whole, Mexico is more dangerous than the US, and I think the statistics support that. Besides the danger, I think the chance of getting ripped off one way or another is also greater in Mexico.

Who is always sounding the alarm on how dangerous Mexico is? I don't think it's me, at least I don't recall EVER posting on that subject. So who are you referring to?

What I was saying is that, for me, understanding the danger has not (yet) gotten me to the point where I won't go, which is why I spend as much time in TJ as I do and why I keep my very modest vacation "home" in another part of Baja.

Knowing the town and having friends and colleagues there, I feel reasonably safe and certainly have a good time there. In fact, I have criticized others when they trash talk TJ without knowing anything about it. But I also think that going to TJ without any idea of where you are, where you're going as a "tourist" could get dangerous, would you agree?

[Edited on 9-2-2011 by Roberto]